scholarly journals Using genetic algorithm in dynamic model of speculative attack

Equilibrium ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 287
Author(s):  
Bogna Gawrońska-Nowak ◽  
Wojciech Grabowski
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Information Structure ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Currency Market ◽  
Speculative Attack ◽  
Nature Of Information

Evolution of speculative attack models shows certain progress in developing the idea of the role of expectations in the crisis mechanism. Obstfeld (1996) defines expectations as fully exogenous. Morris and Shin (1998) treat the expectations as endogenous (with respect to noise), not devoting too much attention to information structure of the foreign exchange market. Dynamic approach proposed by Angeletos, Hellwig and Pavan (2006) offers more sophisticated assumption about learning process. It tries to reflect time-variant and complex nature of information. However, this model ignores many important details like a Central Bank cost function. Genetic algorithm allows to avoid problems connected with incorporating information and expectations into agent decision-making process to an extent. There are some similarities between the evolution in Nature and currency market performance. In our paper an assumption about rational agent behaviour in the efficient market is criticised and we present our version of the dynamic model of a speculative attack, in which we use a genetic algorithm (GA) to define decision-making process of the currency market agents. The results of our simulation seem to be in line with the theory and intuition. An advantage of our model is that it reflects reality in a quite complex way, i.e. level of noise changes in time (decreasing), there are different states of fundamentals (with “more sensitive” upper part of the scale), the number of inflowing agents can be low or high (due to different globalization phases, different capital flow phases, different uncertainty levels).

scholarly journals A Multitier Approach to Estimating the Energy Efficiency of Urban Passenger Mobility

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10263
Author(s):  
Daniel Neves Schmitz Gonçalves ◽  
Renata Albergaria de Mello Bandeira ◽  
Mariane Gonzalez da Costa ◽  
George Vasconcelos Goes ◽  
Tássia Faria de Assis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Urban Mobility ◽  
Energy Data ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Motorized Transport

As society has experiences new modes of mobility in recent years, cities have planned to increase their energy efficiency as a way of reducing environmental impacts and promoting economic development. However, governments face difficulties in establishing mechanisms to determine the best actions in the management of urban mobility regarding energy efficiency and to elaborate a ranking of cities based on energy efficiency in order to better allocate resources. This is due to the complex nature of obtaining a wide range of activity and energy data from a single municipality, especially in data-scarce regions. This paper develops and applies a model for estimating the energy efficiency of urban mobility that is applicable to different contexts and backgrounds. The main contribution of the article is the use of a multitier approach to compare and adjust outputs, considering different transport configurations and data sets. The results indicate that variations in vehicle occupancy and individual motorized transport rates have a significant impact on energy efficiency, which reached 0.70 passenger-kilometers/MJ in Sorocaba, Brazil. However, as the use of electric vehicles increases in this city, this scenario is expected to change. Additionally, the method has been proven to be an important mechanism for benchmarking purposes and for the decision-making process for transport investments.

The Importance of Information in Crisis Management

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-95
Author(s):  
Barbara Kaczmarczyk
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
Information Flow ◽  
Flow System ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Threat Analysis ◽  
Nature Of Information ◽  
Channel Information ◽  
Made In

Threats have accompanied humanity since the dawn of time. Most of them can develop into crisis situations that can be interpreted in many different ways. The crisis situation is closely linked with the concept of crisis management, which is implemented in four phases. At every stage of work, various elements are significant in terms of crisis management. There are also elements that are very important at every stage. These include: threat analysis, estimation of the probability of their occurrence in a given area, and assessment of their sensitivity. An appropriate information flow system supports the implementation of the above elements. This system should be effective in such relations as between services and between services and society. The effectiveness of information flow depends on the reliability of this information and its flow channel. Information is of particular importance in the decision-making process. It should have appropriate features and properties. Based on the information, both good and bad decisions can be made. In crisis management, this can be relevant to human health and even human life. This article discusses issues related to the nature of information in crisis management.

scholarly journals Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Falat ◽  
Dusan Marcek ◽  
Maria Durisova
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Soft Computing ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Hybrid Neural Network

This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined withK-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

Safe Ship’s Control in a Fuzzy Environment Using a Genetic Algorithm

2011 ◽  
Vol 180 ◽  
pp. 70-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostefa Mohamed Seghir
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Ship Control ◽  
Marine Accidents

Marine accidents occurring nowadays testify to the fact that systems enhancing the level of navigational safety are indispensable. This paper describes a method of safe ship control in the collision situation in a fuzzy environment based on a genetic algorithm. The optimal safe ship trajectory in a collision situation is presented as multistage decision-making process. The results have been discussed.

scholarly journals SISTEM PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN UNTUK MENENTUKAN POSISI PEMAIN IDEAL DALAM TIM SEPAK BOLA DENGAN METODE ALGORITMA GENETIKA

Compiler ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hizkia Alprianta ◽  
Anton Setiawan Honggowibowo ◽  
Yuliani Indrianingsih
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
User Interface ◽  
Interface Design ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Media Processing ◽  
Ideal Position ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Ideal

So far, there are coaches who are less precise in determining the ideal position of the player as it only relies on instinct and the ego of the players so that there is still a coach who has not been able to objectively assess the players.By utilizing the method of Genetic Algorithm as Decision Support System (DSS) in the process of determining the ideal position of a player who uses several criteria (multicriteria) to choose a proper player. DSS is helping coach in making the right decisions and Genetic Algorithm is used as a model for multicriteria weighting in the selection process. This application was built with tools Borland Delphi (7.0) as the user interface design and media processing PostgreSQL as its database.            Based on these results we can conclude that this application expected to assist the coaches in the decision making process and can change the appraisal of which are subjective to more objective, to determine the ideal position for a player, can determine the best position of each position of a number of players and the expected results of the Genetic Algorithm on the system constructed in accordance with the results of manual calculations.

scholarly journals The branch-and-bound method and genetic algorithm in avoidance of ships collisions in fuzzy environment

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (Special) ◽  
pp. 45-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostefa Mohamed-Seghir
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Branch And Bound ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Branch And Bound Method ◽  
Continuous Observation ◽  
Collision System ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Ship Control ◽  
Marine Navigation

ABSTRACT Marine navigation consists in continuous observation of the situation at sea, determination the anti-collision manoeuvre. So it necessary to determine ship safe trajectory as a sequence of ship course changing manoeuvres. Each manoeuvre is undertaken on the basis of information obtained from the anti-collision system ARPA. This paper describes a method of safe ship control in the collision situation in a fuzzy environment based on a branch and bound method and a genetic algorithm. The optimal safe ship trajectory in a collision situation is presented as multistage decision-making process

AN ANALYSIS OF EFL TEACHERS’ PERCEPTIONS RELATED TO THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS: A CASE STUDY AT A FOUNDATION UNIVERSITY IN TURKEY

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (14) ◽  
pp. 40-55
Author(s):  
Mehmet Salih YOĞUN
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Teaching Experience ◽  
Private University ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Administrative Roles ◽  
Teachers Perceptions ◽  
Efl Teachers

Decision-making process requires school leaders and teachers to approach problems in a systematic way with more attention as a part of their academic and administrative roles, duties and responsibilities. In this respect, it is inevitable for them to consider the complex nature of decision-making procedures that is reshaped again and again due to the stakeholders various social, educational, cultural and psychological backgrounds. Bearing these points in mind, the purpose of the current study was to investigate the EFL teachers’ perceptions of decision-making process and identify the decision-making style they follow. Additionally, it aspired after searching whether gender and teaching experience effect the EFL teachers’ decision-making styles. A qualitative case study design was applied for the present study in accordance with its purpose. 6 EFL teachers (3 females and 3 male) working at the School of Foreign Languages in a private university took part in this study as participants. Collected data was analysed with Creswell’s (2012) inductive content analysis. The findings reached as a result of the study revealed that teachers’ perceptions of decision-making process were categorized under four headings. They were (1) the careful consideration of the situation, (2) involvement of all the parties, (3) reacting to an undesired situation, and (4) feeling responsible. It was also observed that while the men utilized rational decision-making style, the women preferred dependent decision-making style. Additionally, according to the findings, all of the participants stated that teaching experience had a positive correlation with decision-making process which means that the more experience teachers have, the more successful and effective decisions they take.

scholarly journals COMPUTER-AIDED DECISION-MAKING IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 248-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariola Violeta Ksiąźek ◽  
Paweł Olaf Nowak ◽  
Serkan Kivrak ◽  
Jerzy Hubert Rosłon ◽  
Leonas Ustinovichius
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Computer Calculation ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Calculation Algorithms ◽  
Mathematical Calculation

One of the most difficult problems in construction is taking objective decisions. A decision-making process is very complicated and time consuming (due to the complex nature of construction projects). Many experts with extensive knowledge of construction industry take subjective decisions related to verbal methods of decision-making. Difficulties are related mostly to the creation of a set of relevant criteria, providing answers to the decision-maker’s questions. A set of proper criteria and mathematical tools (such as computer calculation algorithms with multi-criteria analysis) could significantly improve objective decision-making. The paper presents ESORD – an informatics tool allowing to establish a hierarchy (ranking) of different types of solutions on the basis of mathematical calculation. The authors present a comparison of different methods used for multi-criteria decision-making.

Results of a Pilot Study Reviewing Dermatitis Claims Submitted to the Ontario Workplace Safety and Insurance Board

2000 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 117-120
Author(s):  
D. Linn Holness
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Pilot Study ◽  
Clinical Status ◽  
Workplace Safety ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Workplace Issues ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Nature Of Information ◽  
Lost Time

Background: Workers who develop occupational skin disease are often eligible for workers' compensation benefits; however, there is little known about the decision-making process for adjudicating claims submitted for work-related skin problems. Objective: The objective of this pilot study was to test a file abstraction instrument and determine the nature of information that was available for decision-making. Methods: Files submitted to the Ontario Workplace Safety and Insurance Board (WSIB) in 1995 for dermatitis were identified. The last 51 files were abstracted to collect information concerning demographics, physicians seen, information available in the claim file for decision making, as well as type of claim and outcome of the claim. Results: Approximately 70% of the claims were “no-lost-time” and one-third of total claims were accepted for compensation. Although there was reasonable information related to the clinical status, most claims had no information that related to workplace issues such as exposures or association with work. Claims that were for lost time or were accepted had more information available. Conclusions: The pilot study has demonstrated that there is a lack of information related to workplace issues that would be important in decision-making. The study will be extended to examine the entire year's claims in order to develop a strategy to enhance the understanding of the WSIB and providers regarding the information necessary for decision-making and to determine methods to facilitate its collection.

scholarly journals A Multi-Tier Approach to Estimate Energy Efficiency in Urban Passenger Mobility

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Neves Schmitz Gonçalves ◽  
Renata Albergaria de Mello Bandeira ◽  
Tássia Faria de Assis ◽  
Marcio Almeida D'Agosto ◽  
George Vasconcelos Goes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Passenger Transport ◽  
Energy Data ◽  
Levels Of Detail ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Different Levels

Abstract Background: Recent studies evidence a lack of accurate methods to estimate energy efficiency in urban areas. This is due to the complex nature of obtaining wide range of activity and energy data from a single municipality, especially from developing countries, where data is usually scarce. Under these circumstances, this paper develops a method for estimating the energy efficiency in urban passenger mobility, considering three different levels of detail. The innovative factor is the use of a multi-tier approach to compare and adjust outputs. The method was applied in Sorocaba, Brazil, estimating a baseline of energy efficiency in this city. Results: Results show that energy efficiency varied from 0.67 passenger per kilometer/Mega Joule in 2013 to 0.70 passenger per kilometer /Mega Joule in 2017, which are consistent with the Brazilian passenger transport energy efficiency. Conclusions: The method proved to be an important mechanism for benchmarking purposes and for the decision-making process on transport investments. Moreover, it can be applied in cities from countries with different cultural and economic contexts.

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