scholarly journals How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0242839
Author(s):  
Martin Schonger ◽  
Daniela Sele
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Social Behavior ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Large Impact ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Doubling Times ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Exponential growth bias is the phenomenon whereby humans underestimate exponential growth. In the context of infectious diseases, this bias may lead to a failure to understand the magnitude of the benefit of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Communicating the same scenario in different ways (framing) has been found to have a large impact on people’s evaluations and behavior in the contexts of social behavior, risk taking and health care. We find that framing matters for people’s assessment of the benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions. In two commonly used frames, most subjects in our experiment drastically underestimate the number of cases avoided by adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions. Framing growth in terms of doubling times rather than growth rates reduces the bias. When the scenario is framed in terms of time gained rather than cases avoided, the median subject assesses the benefit of non-pharmaceutical interventions correctly. These findings suggest changes that could be adopted to better communicate the exponential spread of infectious diseases.

scholarly journals The first month of the COVID-19 outbreak in 46 sub-Saharan African countries. A comparative analysis of growth rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin J. Prince ◽  
Atalay Alem ◽  
Dixon Chibanda ◽  
Lara Fairall ◽  
Abebaw Fekadu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Care ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Linear Growth ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
European Countries ◽  
World Health ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Doubling Times

ABSTRACTBackgroundThe COVID-19 outbreak in sub-Saharan African countries started after those in Asia, Europe and North America, on 28th February 2020. The susceptibility to infection of populations in that region has been debated. Outbreaks on the scale of those seen elsewhere would pose substantial challenges. There are reasons for concern that transmission may be high and difficult to control, rapidly exceeding capacity to meet the needs for hospitalization and critical care.MethodsWe obtained data on daily new confirmed cases for all 46 countries from the World Health Organization, and used these to model and visualize growth trajectories using an AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. We then estimated doubling times from growth rates estimated from Poisson regression models, and by back counting from the most recent observation. We also calculated the time from 1st to 50th case, and the time from 5th to 100th case. These indicators were compared with the same summary indicators of growth at the same stage of the outbreak in highly affected European countries.ResultsKenya was the only country with clear evidence of exponential growth. Nineteen countries had either reported no cases, were in the first few days of the outbreak, or had reported fewer than 10 cases over a period of two or more weeks. For the remaining 27 countries we identified four growth patterns: slow linear growth, more rapid linear growth, variable growth patterns over the course of the outbreak, and early signs of possible exponential growth. For those in the last three groups, doubling times ranged from 3 to 4 days, times from 1st to 50th case from 12 to 29 days, and from 5th to 100th case from eight to 15 days. These early indicators are comparable to those in European countries that have gone on to have substantial outbreaks, and time to 50th case was shorter suggesting lesser effectiveness of contact-tracing and quarantine in the early phase.ConclusionThe 46 sub-Saharan African countries, home to over one billion people, are at a tipping point with clear potential for the outbreak to follow a similar course as in HIC in the global north. Radical population-level physical distancing measures may be required, but their impact on poor, disadvantaged and vulnerable people and communities need mitigating. Health systems in the region need urgent technical and material support, with testing, personal protection, and hospital/ critical care.

scholarly journals Intuition and exponential growth: bias and the roles of parameterization and complexity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Schonger ◽  
Daniela Sele
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
The Other ◽  
Highly Educated ◽  
Zero Growth ◽  
Doubling Times

AbstractExponential growth bias is the phenomenon that humans intuitively underestimate exponential growth. This article reports on an experiment where treatments differ in the parameterization of growth: Exponential growth is communicated to one group in terms of growth rates, and in terms of doubling times to the other. Exponential growth bias is much smaller when doubling times are employed. Considering that in many applications, individuals face a choice between different growth rates, rather than between exponential growth and zero growth, we ask a question where growth is reduced from high to low. Subjects vastly underestimate the effect of this reduction, though less so in the parameterization using doubling times. The answers to this question are more severely biased than one would expect from the answers to the exponential growth questions. These biases emerge despite the sample being highly educated and exhibiting awareness of exponential growth bias. Implications for teaching, the usefulness of heuristics, and policy are discussed.

The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Children‘s Behaviors and Language

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 796-806
Author(s):  
Sana M Kamal ◽  
Ali Al-Samydai ◽  
Rudaina Othman Yousif ◽  
Talal Aburjai
Keyword(s):  
Social Relations ◽  
Child Psychology ◽  
Simple Random Sample ◽  
Community Pharmacies ◽  
The World ◽  
Female Children ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

COVID-19 pandemic has spread across the world, which considered a relative of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), with possibility of transmission from animals to human and effect each of health and economic. Several preventative strategies and non-pharmaceutical interventions have been used to slow down the spread of COVID-19. The questionnaire contained 36 questions regarding the impact of COVID-19 quarantine on children`s behaviors and language have been distributed online (Google form). Data collected after asking parents about their children behavior during quarantine, among the survey completers (n=469), 42.3% were female children, and 57.7 were male children. Results showed that quarantine has an impact on children`s behaviors and language, where stress and isolationism has a higher effect, while social relations had no impact. The majority of the respondents (75.0%) had confidence that community pharmacies can play an important role in helping families in protection their children`s behaviors and language as they made the highest contact with pharmacists during quarantine. One of the main recommendations that could be applied to help parents protection and improvement their children`s behaviors and language in quarantine condition base on simple random sample opinion is increasing the role of community pharmacies inpatient counseling and especially towards children after giving courses to pharmacists in child psychology and behavior. This could be helpful to family to protect their children, from any changing in them behaviors and language in such conditions in the future if the world reface such the same problem.

scholarly journals Oral Health Attitudes and Behavior among a Group of Turkish Dental Students

2009 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. 24-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilkay Peker ◽  
Meryem Toraman Alkurt
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Oral Health ◽  
Dental Health ◽  
Dental Students ◽  
Health Attitudes ◽  
Dental Health Care ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Mouth Wash ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Better Than

ABSTRACTObjectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate self-reported oral health attitude and behavior among a group of Turkish dental students and to compare differences in oral health attitudes between years of study and gender.Methods: This study included 267 (153 female, 114 male) dental students. A modified English version of Hiroshima University Dental-Behavioral Inventory (HU-DBI) which consists of twenty-eight dichotomous responses (yes-no) was used.Results: Totally 141 preclinical (1, 2 and 3rd years of study) and 126 clinical students (4 and 5th years of study) who were mean age of 21.16 participated in the study. Statistically significant differences were found between years of study for brushing each of teeth carefully, cleaning the teeth well without using toothpaste, using a toothbrush which has hard bristles and for having had their dentist tell that they brush very well. There were statistically significant differences between females and males for using a toothbrush which has hard bristles and using tooth floss regularly. Statistically significant differences were found for brushing each of the teeth carefully and using mouth wash on regular basis between smokers and non-smokers.Conclusions: This study confirmed that oral and dental health behavior and attitudes and also their knowledge about oral and dental health care of dental students improved with increasing level of education while oral and dental health care of female students were better than males and oral and dental health care of non-smokers were better than smokers. (Eur J Dent 2009;3:24-31)

scholarly journals Drivers of Infectious Disease Seasonality: Potential Implications for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
pp. 074873042098732
Author(s):  
N. Kronfeld-Schor ◽  
T. J. Stevenson ◽  
S. Nickbakhsh ◽  
E. S. Schernhammer ◽  
X. C. Dopico ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Multidisciplinary Approach ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
Epidemiological Evidence ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Human Coronaviruses ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Timing Phase

Not 1 year has passed since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its emergence, great uncertainty has surrounded the potential for COVID-19 to establish as a seasonally recurrent disease. Many infectious diseases, including endemic human coronaviruses, vary across the year. They show a wide range of seasonal waveforms, timing (phase), and amplitudes, which differ depending on the geographical region. Drivers of such patterns are predominantly studied from an epidemiological perspective with a focus on weather and behavior, but complementary insights emerge from physiological studies of seasonality in animals, including humans. Thus, we take a multidisciplinary approach to integrate knowledge from usually distinct fields. First, we review epidemiological evidence of environmental and behavioral drivers of infectious disease seasonality. Subsequently, we take a chronobiological perspective and discuss within-host changes that may affect susceptibility, morbidity, and mortality from infectious diseases. Based on photoperiodic, circannual, and comparative human data, we not only identify promising future avenues but also highlight the need for further studies in animal models. Our preliminary assessment is that host immune seasonality warrants evaluation alongside weather and human behavior as factors that may contribute to COVID-19 seasonality, and that the relative importance of these drivers requires further investigation. A major challenge to predicting seasonality of infectious diseases are rapid, human-induced changes in the hitherto predictable seasonality of our planet, whose influence we review in a final outlook section. We conclude that a proactive multidisciplinary approach is warranted to predict, mitigate, and prevent seasonal infectious diseases in our complex, changing human-earth system.

scholarly journals Behind the Wall of Indifference: Prisoner Voices about the Realities of Prison Health Care

Laws ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Barbara H. Zaitzow ◽  
Anthony K. Willis
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
General Population ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Correctional Facilities ◽  
Prison Inmates ◽  
Prison Health ◽  
Prison Health Care ◽  
Public Scrutiny ◽  
Poor Ventilation ◽  
Violent Assault

While most Americans never see or become ensnared in the nation’s vast correctional system, there are unprecedented costs—economic, social, and ethical—that are being paid, one way or another, by everyone in this country. It is no secret that prison inmates face health threats behind bars that equal anything they face in the streets. Violent assault, rape, or the outbreak of highly infectious diseases are much more common in correctional facilities than in the general population. Prison conditions can easily fan the spread of disease through overcrowding, poor ventilation, and late or inadequate medical care. Effectively protected from public scrutiny, the prison health care system has almost zero accountability, thus escaping outside attention to serious failures of care. If you want to know about the practice of health care in prison settings, ask someone who has been “in” the system. Prisoners have a story to tell and this article gives voice to the experiences of those who have been directly impacted by the provision of health care in the prison system.

scholarly journals 472. The Utility of Infectious Diseases E-consults in the Era of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S302-S303
Author(s):  
Hala Saad ◽  
Kruti Yagnik ◽  
Helen King ◽  
Roger Bedimo ◽  
Richard J Medford
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Infection Prevention ◽  
Panel Member ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
North Texas ◽  
Review Panel ◽  
The North ◽  
Time To Completion ◽  
Texas Health

Abstract Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid Infectious Diseases (ID) consultation has been required to answer novel questions regarding SARS-CoV-2 testing and infection prevention. We sought to evaluate the utility of e-consults to triage and provide rapid ID recommendations to providers. Methods We performed a retrospective study reviewing ID e-consults in three institutions in the North Texas region: Clements University Hospital (CUH), Parkland Hospital and Health System (PHHS), and the VA North Texas Health Care System (VA) from March 1, 2020 to May 15, 2020. Variables collected include age, sex, ethnicity, comorbidities, time to completion, reason for consult and outcome of consult (initiation or removal of personal protective equipment (PPE) and recommendation to test or retest for COVID-19). Results We performed all analysis using R studio (Version 1.3.959). Characteristics of 198 patients included: 112(57%) male, 86(43%) female, 86(43%) Caucasian, 71(36%) Hispanic, 42(21%) African American, 6(3%) Asian and mean(sd) age of 55.1(15.9). Patient comorbidities included: 89(45%) with a heart condition, 77(39%) diabetes, 30(15%) asthma and 14(7%) liver disease. Median time to completion for all hospitals was 4 hours(h); ((CUH (4h) vs PHHS (2h), p< 0.05; VA (5.5h) vs PHHS (2h) p< 0.05)). Most common reasons for e-consult included: (63)32% regarding re-testing ((CUH 14(21%) vs PHHS 43(50%), p< 0.05; CUH vs VA 14(27%), p< 0.05; PHHS vs VA, p< 0.05)), (61)31% testing ((CUH 25(37%) vs PHHS 39(45%), p< 0.05; CUH vs VA 7(16%), p< 0.05; PHHS vs VA, p< 0.05)) and 61(31%) infection prevention (IP). Based on the e-consult recommendation, 53(27%) of patients were tested ((CUH 31(45%) vs PHHS 11(13%), p< 0.05, CUH vs VA 11(25%), PHHS vs VA, p< 0.05)), 45(23%) were re-tested, 44(22%) of patients had PPE started on and 19% had PPE removed ((CUH 0(0%) vs PHHS 16(19%), p< 0.05; CUH vs VA 21(48%), p< 0.05; PHHS vs VA, p< 0.05)). Reason for Consult Conclusion E-consult services can provide prompt ID input during the COVID-19 pandemic, minimizing the risk of infection to the patient and health care workers while preserving PPE and testing supplies. Disclosures Roger Bedimo, MD, MS, Gilead Sciences (Consultant)Merck & Co. (Advisor or Review Panel member)ViiV Healthcare (Advisor or Review Panel member, Research Grant or Support)

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