Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands

Author(s):  
Anna Staszewska-Bystrova

SummaryThe formula for the Scheffé prediction bands proposed by Jordà and Marcellino (2010) is reconsidered. It is demonstrated, that in many cases of practical interest, the bands fail to satisfactorily approximate the uncertainty associated with a path-forecast. A modification of the Scheffé method is proposed which improves the coverage properties of the bands.

1981 ◽  
Vol 45 (01) ◽  
pp. 051-054 ◽  
Author(s):  
A M Fischer ◽  
J Tapon-Bretaudiere ◽  
A Bros ◽  
F Josso

SummaryIn order to investigate the mechanism of thrombin inactivation in the presence of both antithrombin III (AT III) and α 2-macroglobulin (α 2 M), thrombin and the inhibitors have been purified from human material and thrombin inactivation studied using purified reagents either alone or added to defibrinated plasma. Comparison of clotting and amidolytic activities of residual thrombin allowed to measure the amount of thrombin bound to α 2 M. In a purified reagent system as well as in plasma, part of exogenous thrombin is bound to α 2 M. The amount of bound thrombin is related to α 2 M concentration. Conversely, previous plasma α 2 M depletion by immunoabsorption increases the consumption of heparin-cofactor activity by exogenous thrombin. Thus AT III and α 2 M compete for thrombin inactivation. This finding could be of practical interest in clinical situations associating high plasma α 2 M levels and a decrease of AT III concentration.


Author(s):  
Julia Rishatovna Kuzhanbaeva ◽  
Rustam Taufihovich Kuzhanbaev ◽  
Maria S. Guseva

In order to prevent negative socio-economic trends, to predict the social consequences of decisions on the implementation of state policy in the development of single-industry territories, public authorities monitor the socio-economic situation in single-industry towns based on an assessment of a number of statistical indicators. Such a differentiated assessment of statistical parameters does not allow a comprehensive assessment of the level of development and competitiveness of a single-industry town by territory, which is of particular relevance in modern conditions of glocalization. Of particular scientific and practical interest is a comparative analysis of the level of development of single-industry towns on the basis of an integral indicator that takes into account aspects of various spheres of life of the population and allows an objective assessment of the competitive positions of single-industry territories, which is currently not used by state authorities for monitoring. The purpose of the work is to assess and justify the conditions and development trends of single-industry towns of the Samara region on the basis of calculating the integral indicator of competitiveness, taking into account the level of development of the economy, finance, employment, social security and demography, as well as the mono-profile level of territories. In this study, we used the methods of system analysis, the method of comparisons and analogies, the method of generalization, the methods of dialectic and statistical analysis, the method of expert estimates, the method of retrospective estimates and structural-dynamic analysis. The paper provides an overview of the single-industry towns of the regions of the Volga Federal District; the results of testing the methodology for assessing the competitiveness of single-industry towns of the Samara region on the basis of an integral indicator are presented and trends in its change in the period 2013–2017 are identified. The study involved four single-industry towns of the Samara region: Oktyabrsk, Pohvistnevo, Tolyatti, Chapaevsk. The calculations showed that For five years Oktyabrsk was an outsider in four of the six areas under study (economics, labor, social services, demography), which led to the lowest competitiveness index and allowed us to identify the competitiveness of a single-industry town as “below average”. In relatively equal socio-economic conditions, there were Pohvistnevo, Togliatti and Chapaevsk, the level of competitiveness of which is “above average”.


2020 ◽  
pp. 43-47
Author(s):  
S.V. Prudius ◽  
◽  
N.L. Hes ◽  
A.M. Mylin ◽  
V.V. Brei ◽  
...  

In recent years, numerous researchers have focused on the development of catalytic methods for processing of biomass-derived sugars into alkyl lactates, which are widely used as non-toxic solvents and are the starting material for obtaining monomeric lactide. In this work, the transformation of fructose into methyl lactate on Sn-containing catalyst in the flow reactor that may be of practical interest was studied. The supported Sn-containing catalyst was ob-tained by a simple impregnation method of granular γ-Al2O3. The catalytic ex-periments were performed in a flow reactor at temperatures of 160-190 °C and pressure of 3.0 MPa. The 1.6-9.5 wt.% fructose solutions in 80% aqueous methanol were used as a reaction mixture. It was found that addition to a reac-tion mixture of 0.03 wt.% potassium carbonate leads to the increase in selec-tivity towards methyl lactate on 15% at 100% conversion of fructose. Prod-ucts of the target reaction С6Н12О6 + 2СН3ОН = 2С4Н8О3 + 2Н2О were ana-lyzed using 13C NMR method. The following process conditions for obtaining of 65 mol% methyl lactate yield at 100% fructose conversion were found: use of 4.8 wt.% fructose solution in 80% methanol, 180 °С, 3.0 МПа and a load on catalyst 1.5 mmol C6H12O6/mlcat/h at contact time of 11 minutes. The cata-lyst productivity is 2.0 mmol C4H8O3/mlcat/h and the by-productі are 1,3-dihydroxyacetone dimethyl acetal (20%) and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (10%). It should be noted that a racemic mixture of L- and D-methyl lactates has been obtained by conversion of D-fructose on the SnO2/Al2O3 catalyst. The SnO2/Al2O3 catalyst was found to be stable for 6 h while maintaining full fruc-tose conversion at 55–70% methyl lactate selectivity. After regeneration the catalyst completely restores the initial activity.


Author(s):  
Vasyl Karpo ◽  
Nataliia Nechaieva-Yuriichuk

From ancient times till nowadays information plays a key role in the political processes. The beginning of XXI century demonstrated the transformation of global security from military to information, social etc. aspects. The widening of pandemic demonstrated the weaknesses of contemporary authoritarian states and the power of human-oriented states. During the World War I the theoretical and practical interest toward political manipulation and political propaganda grew definitely. After 1918 the situation developed very fast and political propaganda became the part of political influence. XX century entered into the political history as the millennium of propaganda. The collapse of the USSR and socialist system brought power to new political actors. The global architecture of the world has changed. Former Soviet republic got independence and tried to separate from Russia. And Ukraine was between them. The Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine was the start point for a number of processes in world politics. But the most important was the fact that the role and the place of information as the challenge to world security was reevaluated. The further annexation of Crimea, the attempt to legitimize it by the comparing with the referendums in Scotland and Catalonia demonstrated the willingness of Russian Federation to keep its domination in the world. The main difference between the referendums in Scotland and in Catalonia was the way of Russian interference. In 2014 (Scotland) tried to delegitimised the results of Scottish referendum because they were unacceptable for it. But in 2017 we witness the huge interference of Russian powers in Spain internal affairs, first of all in spreading the independence moods in Catalonia. The main conclusion is that the world has to learn some lessons from Scottish and Catalonia cases and to be ready to new challenges in world politics in a format of information threats.


2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 161-176
Author(s):  
M. N. Zinyatova ◽  
◽  
Ye.A. Kleymenov ◽  

On the basis of quantitative and qualitative expert sociological surveys, the article presents a model of anti-corruption education in Russia. This model is formed by seven main elements: basis, principles, subjects, objects, methods and means, content of materials (semantic orientation), indicators of the effectiveness of anti-corruption education. Comparing the obtained sociological data characterizing these elements with the corresponding elements of the anti-corruption mechanism enshrined in the current regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation, the authors identified a number of inconsistencies. They concern, first of all, the principles, subjects of implementation of anti-corruption education, as well as indicators for assessing its effectiveness. For example, experts suggest using non-statutory principles of financial support and standardization of materials presented in the framework of such education when conducting anti-corruption education. At the same time, for the optimization of management decisions in the field of anti-corruption education, scientific and practical interest and contradictions identified within the obtained sociological data are of interest. Such contradictions are most clearly traced in relation to the subjects and objects of anti-corruption education.


Author(s):  
Sauro Succi

This chapter introduces the main ideas behind the application of LBE methods to the problem of turbulence modeling, namely the simulation of flows which contain scales of motion too small to be resolved on present-day and foreseeable future computers. Many real-life flows of practical interest exhibit Reynolds numbers far too high to be directly simulated in full resolution on present-day computers and arguably for many years to come. This raises the challenge of predicting the behavior of highly turbulent flows without directly simulating all scales of motion which take part to turbulence dynamics, but only those that fall within the computer resolution at hand.


2019 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
pp. 05006
Author(s):  
Yuliya Bryanskaya ◽  
Aleksandra Ostiakova

For the solution of engineering problems require increasingly accurate estimates of the hydraulic characteristics of the water streams. To date, it is impossible to consider sufficiently complete theoretical and experimental justification of the main provisions of the theory of turbulence, hydraulic resistance, channel processes. The composition of tasks related to flows in wide channels, turbulence problems are of scientific and practical interest. Various interpretations of the determination of the critical Froude number in wide open water flows based on observations and theoretical transformations are considered. The conditions for the emergence of a critical regime of water flow in an open wide channel are analyzed in order to estimate the critical Froude number and critical depth. Estimates of the critical Froude number for laboratory and field conditions are given. The estimations allow us to consider the proposed approach acceptable for determining the conditions of occurrence of the critical flow regime. The General, physical interpretation of conditions of occurrence of the critical regime of water flow on the basis of phenomenological approach is specified. The results take into account the values of the components of the total specific energy of the section. This shows the estimated calculation. The results obtained theoretically make it possible to compare the above interpretations and determine their applicability, and the results of the analysis can be useful for the estimated calculations of flows in channels and river flows in rigid, undeformable boundaries and with minor channel deformations.


Author(s):  
Rebekah J. Nixon ◽  
Sascha H. Kranen ◽  
Anni Vanhatalo ◽  
Andrew M. Jones

AbstractThe metabolic boundary separating the heavy-intensity and severe-intensity exercise domains is of scientific and practical interest but there is controversy concerning whether the maximal lactate steady state (MLSS) or critical power (synonymous with critical speed, CS) better represents this boundary. We measured the running speeds at MLSS and CS and investigated their ability to discriminate speeds at which $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 was stable over time from speeds at which a steady-state $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 could not be established. Ten well-trained male distance runners completed 9–12 constant-speed treadmill tests, including 3–5 runs of up to 30-min duration for the assessment of MLSS and at least 4 runs performed to the limit of tolerance for assessment of CS. The running speeds at CS and MLSS were significantly different (16.4 ± 1.3 vs. 15.2 ± 0.9 km/h, respectively; P < 0.001). Blood lactate concentration was higher and increased with time at a speed 0.5 km/h higher than MLSS compared to MLSS (P < 0.01); however, pulmonary $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 did not change significantly between 10 and 30 min at either MLSS or MLSS + 0.5 km/h. In contrast, $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 increased significantly over time and reached $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2\,\,\max }$$ V ˙ O 2 max at end-exercise at a speed ~ 0.4 km/h above CS (P < 0.05) but remained stable at a speed ~ 0.5 km/h below CS. The stability of $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 at a speed exceeding MLSS suggests that MLSS underestimates the maximal metabolic steady state. These results indicate that CS more closely represents the maximal metabolic steady state when the latter is appropriately defined according to the ability to stabilise pulmonary $$\dot{V}{\text{O}}_{2}$$ V ˙ O 2 .


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingfang Zou ◽  
Chunyu Niu ◽  
Ming Ma ◽  
Lu Zhao ◽  
Yongqiang Wang

AbstractThe fabrication of a uniform array film through assembly of colloidal building blocks is of practical interest for the integrated individual and collective functions. Here, a magnetic assembly route was put forward to organize monodisperse noble metal microspheres into a uniform array film for surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) application, which demonstrated the integrated signal sensitivity of single noble metal microspheres and reproducibility of their assembled uniform array film. For this purpose, monodisperse multifunctional Fe3O4@SiO2@TiO2@Ag (FOSTA) colloidal microspheres as building blocks were successfully synthesized through a homemade ultrasonic-assisted reaction system. When used in SERS test, these multifunctional microspheres could firstly bind the analyte (R6G) from solution and then assembled into a uniform film under an external magnetic field, which exhibited high SERS detection sensitivity with good reproducibility. In addition, due to the TiO2 interlayer in FOSTA colloidal microspheres, the building blocks could be recycled and self cleaned through photocatalytic degradation of the adsorbed analyte for recycling SERS application.


1974 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 320-331
Author(s):  
Hans D. Unkelbach ◽  
Helmut Wegmann

Using Rényi's model of free Poisson traffic the distribution of the number of meetings of vehicles on a highway section during a given time interval is investigated. An integro-differential equation for the generating function of that variable is deduced and the first moments are calculated. The generating function is given explicitly in simple cases and approximately in cases of practical interest.


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