scholarly journals Formation of the forecasting model for Ukrainian – German migration system

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-136
Author(s):  
Olga Mulska ◽  
Ihor Baranyak
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
German Economy ◽  
Donor Country ◽  
Recipient Country ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
German Population ◽  
Migration Activity ◽  
Migration System ◽  
State Registration

The article presents results of the research on the population's migration activity in the context of the formation of a new migration system (MS), such as the Ukrainian-German one. It has been determined that the expansion of the scale and diversification of the composition of migratory flows intensify their influence on contemporary demographic, socio-economic and ethno-cultural processes both in the donor country and in the recipient country. It is proved that the consideration of the migration component has become necessary in developing the demographic, social and economic, foreign and ethno-cultural strategies of the country's development. Authors present a technique to construct forecasts of migration activity in the conditions of formation of the Ukrainian-German migration system. It is based on a three-stage algorithm: 1) forecasting the size and structure of the population of Germany and Ukraine; 2) forecasting macroeconomic indicators and conditions of labour markets of Germany and Ukraine; and 3) forecasting the volumes of potential migration in the conditions of formation of the investigated MS (Ukraine-Germany). Based on the projection of the German population by 2060, and taking into account variations in the volume of immigration in the country, authors prove that a significant deformation of the age structure of the indigenous population as a result of the nation's 'hyper-aging' may lead to a demographic collapse, which makes it impossible for the country's economic growth to result in shortages of high-skilled workforce in the labour market. The arguments presented confirm the hypothesis of the dependence of the German economy on the immigration flows of human resources. On the basis of the constructed economic-mathematical model, the authors estimated the probable variants of further development of the UGMS for medium-term (by 2025) and long-term (until 2030) perspectives under different developmental scenarios (the benchmark, optimistic, tendentious, and pessimistic ones). The investigation has shown that during 2025-2030 in Ukraine, the demographic and, as a result, labour-saving crisis, caused by the emigration of human resources in young and middle age, coupled with low fertility rates, will aggravate in Ukraine. In this context, the feasibility of constructing a new migration policy with the effect of replacing the workforce has been substantiated. This publication is prepared withing the research project on "Migration activity of the population of the Carpathian region" (state registration No 0119U002010).

scholarly journals MIGRATION RISKS AND THREATS TO STABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AS STRATEGIC OBJECTS OF REGULATORY POLICY

2021 ◽  
pp. 34-43
Author(s):  
Olha Mulska
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Regulatory Policy ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Donor Country ◽  
Recipient Country ◽  
Human Potential ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Migration Activity ◽  
Stable Development

Introduction. Stable development of the national economy in the context of globalization, and consequently the high level of migration activity of the population, correlates with the effectiveness of state policy of migration management. Socio-economic results of regulatory policy are determined by proactive mechanisms for managing migration risks and threats that have a significant impact on the socio-economic and demographic system of the country (GDP, inflation, consumer demand, capitalization of human potential, population, etc.). Purpose. Identification of migration risks and threats for the donor country and the recipient country of human resources as an element of ensuring the stable development of the national economy. Method (methodology). Theories of migration, securitization, economic development, and risk management became the theoretical and scientific-methodical basis of the research. During research it is used such methods and approaches as logical generalization and synthesis are used for formation of the basic conclusions and offers of research, graphic for visualization of the results of identification of migration risks and threats. Results. It is established that migration risks are losses of the economic system and social sphere of the country due to the outflow of human resources and negative consequences that arise because of inefficient management of migration transfers. Migration risks for the donor country are divided into two channels (money transfers and human resources). Considering the channel of human resources outflow, three spheres of migration threats were identified: demographic (deepening demographic crisis, lack of capitalization of human potential determinants, increasing divorce rates, declining marriage rates, rising mortality rate among economically active population, population decline, social depopulation). outflow of intellectual elite, deepening social inequality, shortage of workers, spread of social orphanhood, distant and multinational families, disappearance of the middle class, devaluation of higher education) and economic (reduction of GDP, increasing labour market imbalance, increasing inflation due to inflation), reduction of business income, transformational changes in the capital and labour markets), the strengthening of which leads to systemic risks.

scholarly journals Ukrainian Migration Aspirations towards Germany: Analysis and Development Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-84
Author(s):  
Vitalii Boiko ◽  
Olha Mulska ◽  
Ihor Baranyak ◽  
Olha Levytska
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
German Economy ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
German Population ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
And Migration

Based on the multiple regression model and scenario approach to forecasting, the article estimates the Ukrainian migration aspirations towards Germany (the scale of migration, the economic activity of migrants, and their economic benefits). It is argued that major transformations in the gender-age structure of the German population may cause a demographic crisis and labour market imbalances. Our projections indicate the growing role of foreign human resources in the German economy. When modeling the scale of emigration from Ukraine, an integrated approach is applied, considering not only trends of pull-push factors but also special aspects of the German migration policy and the outflow of 8–10 million Ukrainian migrant workers. Given the poor statistical data on the scale of labour emigration needed for constructing reliable econometric models, the use of expert forecasting method remains the most optimal technique for assessing potential migration flows and migration systems.

FORECASTING MIGRATION FLOWS USING PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS

2020 ◽  
pp. 45-54
Author(s):  
Yulia V. Paukova ◽  
◽  
Konstantin V. Popov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Information Technologies ◽  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Migration Activity ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Future Events ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
Develop State

The present article considers the need to predict migration flows using Predictive Analytics. The Russian Federation is a center of migration activity. The modern world is changing rapidly. An effective migration policy requires effective monitoring of migration flows, assessing the current situation in our and other countries and forecasting migration processes. There are information systems in Russia that contain a wide range of information about foreign citizens and stateless persons that provide the requested information about specific foreign citizens, including grouping it on various grounds. However, it is not possible to analyze and predict it automatically using thousands of parameters. Special attention in Russia is paid to digitalization. Using information technologies (artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data analysis) to forecast migration flows in conditions of variability of future events will allow to take into account a number of events and most accurately predict the quantitative and so-called "qualitative" structure of arrivals. The received information will help to develop state policy and to take appropriate measures in the field of migration regulation. The authors come to the conclusion that it is necessary to amend existing legal acts in order to implement information technologies of Predictive Analytics into the practice of migration authorities.

Analysis of educational migration processes: regional aspect

2020 ◽  
pp. 65-71
Author(s):  
Mariya V. Bachynska ◽  
Lyubov K. Semiv ◽  
Serhiy R. Semiv
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
Educational Systems ◽  
Interstate Migration ◽  
Higher Education System ◽  
Migration System ◽  
Educational Migration

Analysis and consideration of current migration trends in our country, in particular mass interstate migration movements in the context of Ukraine's participation in the European and world migration space, are considered among the important factors in shaping its national policy. Educational migration is a special threat to the socio-economic development of the country and sustainable development of society, as the formation of highly qualified personnel, accumulation of intellectual capital, and increasing scientific and technological potential of the country are among the important factors of economic and social progress. Due to the intensification of interstate migration flows and the development of the quality of the higher education system in foreign educational institutions, migration for education takes a larger share, which is mostly accompanied by constant migration and departure of Ukrainian citizens for permanent residence abroad. The analysis of publications on this issue proves the urgency of educational migration research, and today it remains important to analyze trends in educational migration, find mechanisms to counter the transformation of Ukraine into a country of origin of educational migrants, as well as their repatriation. The article analyzes the educational migration processes in Ukraine in the regional context. The main regional centers of higher education are identified. The focus is on the migration intentions of the population to study abroad and a comparative description of the educational systems of different countries. The order and stages of the admission campaign in foreign educational institutions are described. The essence and features of educational migration are studied and the main reasons that help Ukrainian students to choose foreign higher education institutions are highlighted. The main causes and consequences of educational migration, as well as potential opportunities for educational migration, are identified. Certain benefits and costs associated with educational migration processes are justified. The directions of development of educational migration and effective migration system in Ukraine and its regions, which should take a worthy place in the migration policy of the state, are offered.

scholarly journals International Migration As A Driver Of Country Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-143
Author(s):  
Denys Pudryk
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Political Development ◽  
Donor Country ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Destination Country ◽  
Human Potential ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Migration Determinants

The expression of the country’s sustainable socio-political development is its achievement of macroeconomic stability, which, first of all, depends on the ability of the national economy to ensure the growth of macroeconomic indicators. It raises many questions about identifying and evaluating factors that directly and indirectly impact growth. In recent decades, more and more attention is paid to the problems of developed countries’ human capital security and their importance for macroeconomic processes. Human resources can be interpreted as explicit (labor resources) and implicit (ethnic, age, language, qualification distribution, etc.) factor influencing macroeconomic indicators. Since most economically advanced states belong to the category of old nations, they have faced another global problem in the last half-century – the population’s rapid ageing. Their gradual degeneration leads to the inhibition of positive macroeconomic processes. Therefore there is a need to attract new human resources, and migration is one of the most effective levers to solve this problem. However, migration can pose several threats to both the destination country and the donor country. In the economic context for the destination country, the most serious of these is the lack of the desired improvement in human potential due to the influx of low-skilled workers. In contrast, for the country of origin, there is a brain drain. It creates the problem of determining the factors that affect population migration between the donor country and the destination country, and their correlation with macroeconomic indicators. The purpose of this work is to conduct a generalized analysis of methodologies for assessing the interconnectedness of macroeconomic and migration determinants and identifying commonalities. According to the work results, it was found that most of the analyzed scientists use simple estimation models, filling them with related indirect migration factors and macroeconomic indicators, which are formed depending on the primary goal of the work. Thus, this study allows us to create a list of migration determinants commonly used in typical results, to form an updated methodological framework.

scholarly journals POLITICAL PRINCIPLES FOR THE RUSSIAN MIGRATION POLICY’S IMPLEMENTATION (based on strategic planning documents)

2020 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 93-98
Author(s):  
Konstantin ARSHIN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Recipient Country ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Legal Documents ◽  
Universal Principles ◽  
Migration Research ◽  
The World ◽  
Migration Program ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Political Principles

This article analyzes the most important strategic planning documents in the field of migration policy of the Russian Federation — the Federal Migration Program (1994), the Concept for the Regulation of Migration Processes (2003), the Concept of Migration Policy for the period 2012–2025 (2012), Concept of Migration Policy for 2019–2025 (2019). Normative legal documents in the field of migration were selected as the object of research, and the principles of migration policy proclaimed by them were selected as the object of research. The aim of the study is to classify these principles and establish continuity between strategic planning documents in the field of migration. Research objectives: consider strategic planning documents; analyze the principles of migration policy proclaimed by them; classify the selected principles of migration policy into groups. As a result of the work carried out, universal principles (contained in all analyzed strategic planning documents) and particular principles (contained in only one or several strategic planning documents) were determined. Based on the analysis of these principles, both universal and particular, it is concluded that the proclaimed priorities of the policy in the field of migration ensure the competitiveness of Russia as a recipient country of migration in the world arena.

scholarly journals Understanding EU Solidarity and Migration in Crisis: Narratives of Health as Tools of Governance

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 677-692
Author(s):  
Rachael DICKSON
Keyword(s):  
Policy Development ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Migration System ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
Crisis Narratives ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The Impact ◽  
European Migration

The so-called European migration crisis has sparked significant attention from scholars and raises questions about the role of solidarity between states and the European Union (EU) in providing policy solutions. Tension exists between upholding the rights of those seeking entry and pooling resources between Member States to provide a fair and efficient migration system. This article deconstructs the shifts that have occurred in EU migration policy since 2015 to highlight how narratives of health have become tools of governance. It does so to illuminate how health narratives operate to minimise the impact that conflicts on the nature and substance of EU solidarity have on policy development in response to the perceived crisis. A governmentality lens is used to analyse the implications of increasingly prescribed policy applications based on screening and categorising, and how measures operate to responsibilise migrants and third-countries to act according to EU values. It is argued this approach to governance results in migrants facing legal uncertainty in terms of accessing their rights and excludes them from the EU political space, which is problematic for how EU governance can be understood.

Migration: The Welfare Calculus of Immigrant Countries / Wanderung: Das Wohlfahrtskalkül eines Einwanderungslandes

1995 ◽  
Vol 214 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Dicke ◽  
Hans H. Glismann
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Recipient Country ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Welfare Economics ◽  
Welfare Effects ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Preference Patterns ◽  
National Resource

SummaryThe welfare calculus of migration of the recipient country is tackled at the level of macro- and of microeconomics, using the technical apparatus of the welfare economics of international trade. It turns out that - as opposed to the international-trade case - in order to exploit positive welfare effects accruing to an economy which opens its labour markets to immigrants, interventions are necessary. The design of migration policy has to take into account, among others, the degree of homogeneity of preference patterns as well as the functioning of regulated labour markets, and the strain on the national resource base.

Indian medical graduates in New Zealand: does anyone win?

2020 ◽  
pp. postgradmedj-2020-138295
Author(s):  
Rishi Kumar
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Medical Technology ◽  
Donor Country ◽  
Recipient Country ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Medical Migration ◽  
Medical Graduates ◽  
Indian Medical ◽  
Process Factors

Medical migration has become a global phenomenon, partly led by easier air travel, economic factors and the expansion of medical technology. New Zealand has gradually evolved from being ‘bicultural’ to a multicultural, multitextured society. The movement of the Indian people, particularly Indian physicians, will be the focus of this paper. In the last three decades, migration eligibility in New Zealand has changed from countries of origin or ability to speak English, to profession and skills. Despite struggling with its own issues, New Zealand has proven to be a preferred destination for Indian medical graduates (IMGs). India is widely recognised as the largest ‘donor country’ for doctors, many of whom go on to establish themselves as leaders and prominent figures in their field. This migration involves three parties: India as a donor country, New Zealand as a recipient country and IMGs as the drivers of this process. Factors behind this growing phenomenon are examined and recommendations are made so that all three parties can benefit from it.

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