Predictors of 10-year hospital use in a community-dwelling population of Brazilian elderly: the Bambuí cohort study of aging

We use data from a population-based cohort of elderly Brazilians to assess predictors of hospitalizations during ten years of follow-up. Participants were 1,448 persons aged 60 years and over at baseline (1997). The outcome was self-reported number of hospitalizations per year. Slightly more than a fifth (23%) experienced no hospitalizations during the 10 year follow-up. About 30% had 1-2 events, 31% had between 3 and 7 events, and about 18% had 8 or more events during this time. Results of multivariable hurdle and Cox proportional hazards models showed that the risk of hospitalization was positively associated with male sex, increased age, chronic conditions, and visits to the doctors in the previous 12 months. Underweight was a predictor of any hospitalization, while obesity was an inconsistent predictor of hospitalization.

Download Full-text

Lower values of a novel index of Vagal-Neuroimmunomodulation are associated to higher all-cause mortality in two large general population samples with 18 year follow up

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-82168-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Marc N. Jarczok ◽

Julian Koenig ◽

Julian F. Thayer

Keyword(s):

General Population ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Population Studies ◽

Large Population ◽

Population Based ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Models ◽

All Cause Mortality

AbstractIn recent clinical practice, a biomarker of vagal neuroimmunomodulation (NIM), namely the ratio of vagally-mediated heart rate variability (vmHRV) and CRP, was proposed to index the functionality of the cholinergic anti-inflammatory pathway. This study aims to transfer and extend the previous findings to two general population-based samples to explore the hypothesis that NIM-ratio is associated with all-cause mortality. Two large population studies (MIDUS 2: N = 1255 and Whitehall II wave 5: N = 7870) with complete data from a total of N = 3860 participants (36.1% females; average age = 56.3 years; 11.1% deaths, last exit 18.1 years post inclusion) were available. NIM indices were calculated using the vagally-mediated HRV measure RMSSD divided by measures of CRP (NIMCRP) or IL-6 (NIMIL6). The NIM-ratios were quartiled and entered into age, ethnicity and body mass index adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. For NIMIL6 the lowest quartile was 45% more likely to die during the observed period (max. 18 years follow-up) compared to the highest quartile (HR = 0.55 CI 0.41–0.73; p < .0001). NIMCRP parallel these results. Here we show that an easily computable index of IL-6 inhibition is associated with all-cause mortality in two large general population samples. These results suggest that this index might be useful for risk stratification and warrant further examination.

Download Full-text

Risk of depressive disorders after tobacco smoking cessation: a retrospective cohort study in Fukuoka, Japan

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2018-025124 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. e025124 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Takako Fujita ◽

Akira Babazono ◽

Yumi Harano ◽

Peng Jiang

Keyword(s):

Smoking Cessation ◽

Cohort Study ◽

Survival Analysis ◽

Retrospective Cohort ◽

Depressive Disorders ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Significant Difference

ObjectiveWe sought to examine the effect of smoking cessation on subsequent development of depressive disorders.DesignThis was a retrospective cohort study.MethodsWe used administrative claim and health check data from fiscal years 2010 to 2014, obtained from the largest health insurance association in Fukuoka, Japan. Study participants were between 30 and 69 years old. The end-point outcome was incidence of depressive disorders. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models were conducted. The evaluated potential confounders were sex, age, standard monthly income and psychiatric medical history.ResultsThe final number of participants was 87 255, with 7841 in the smoking cessation group and 79 414 in the smoking group. The result of survival analysis showed no significant difference in depressive disorders between the two groups. The results of Cox proportional hazards models showed no significant difference by multivariate analysis between participants, including users of smoking cessation medication (HR 1.04, 95% Cl 0.89 to 1.22) and excluding medication use (HR 0.97, 95% Cl 0.82 to 1.15).ConclusionsThe present study showed that there were no significant differences with respect to having depressive disorders between smoking cessation and smoking groups. We also showed that smoking cessation was not related to incidence of depressive disorders among participants, including and excluding users of smoking cessation medication, after adjusting for potential confounders. Although the results have some limitations because of the nature of the study design, our findings will provide helpful information to smokers, health professionals and policy makers for improving smoking cessation.

Download Full-text

Population-based cohort study examining the association between splenectomy and empyema in adults in Taiwan

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2016-015101 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 7 (9) ◽

pp. e015101 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Hsien-Feng Lin ◽

Kuan-Fu Liao ◽

Ching-Mei Chang ◽

Cheng-Li Lin ◽

Shih-Wei Lai

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Population Based ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Regression ◽

Kaplan Meier ◽

Confounding Variables ◽

Taiwan National Health Insurance

ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the association between splenectomy and empyema in Taiwan.MethodsA population-based cohort study was conducted using the hospitalisation dataset of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program. A total of 13 193 subjects aged 20–84 years who were newly diagnosed with splenectomy from 2000 to 2010 were enrolled in the splenectomy group and 52 464 randomly selected subjects without splenectomy were enrolled in the non-splenectomy group. Both groups were matched by sex, age, comorbidities and the index year of undergoing splenectomy. The incidence of empyema at the end of 2011 was calculated. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate the HR with 95% CI of empyema associated with splenectomy and other comorbidities.ResultsThe overall incidence rate of empyema was 2.56-fold higher in the splenectomy group than in the non-splenectomy group (8.85 vs 3.46 per 1000 person-years). The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a higher cumulative incidence of empyema in the splenectomy group than in the non-splenectomy group (6.99% vs 3.37% at the end of follow-up). After adjusting for confounding variables, the adjusted HR of empyema was 2.89 for the splenectomy group compared with that for the non-splenectomy group. Further analysis revealed that HR of empyema was 4.52 for subjects with splenectomy alone.ConclusionThe incidence rate ratio between the splenectomy and non-splenectomy groups reduced from 2.87 in the first 5 years of follow-up to 1.73 in the period following the 5 years. Future studies are required to confirm whether a longer follow-up period would further reduce this average ratio. For the splenectomy group, the overall HR of developing empyema was 2.89 after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities, which was identified from previous literature. The risk of empyema following splenectomy remains high despite the absence of these comorbidities.

Download Full-text

Visual impairment and risk of dementia in two population-based prospective cohorts: UK Biobank and EPIC-Norfolk

The Journals of Gerontology Series A ◽

10.1093/gerona/glab325 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Thomas J Littlejohns ◽

Shabina Hayat ◽

Robert Luben ◽

Carol Brayne ◽

Megan Conroy ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Visual Impairment ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Population Based ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Uk Biobank ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Hazard Ratios ◽

Promising Target ◽

Increased Risk

Abstract Visual impairment has emerged as a potential modifiable risk factor for dementia. However, there are a lack of large studies with objective measures of vison and with more than ten years of follow-up. We investigated whether visual impairment is associated with an increased risk of incident dementia in UK Biobank and EPIC-Norfolk. In both cohorts, visual acuity was measured using a “logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution” (LogMAR) chart and categorised as no (≤0.30 LogMAR), mild (>0.3 - ≤0.50 LogMAR), and moderate to severe (>0.50 LogMAR) impairment. Dementia was ascertained through linkage to electronic medical records. After restricting to those aged ≥60 years, without prevalent dementia and with eye measures available, the analytic samples consisted of 62,206 UK Biobank and 7,337 EPIC-Norfolk participants, respectively. In UK Biobank and EPIC-Norfolk. respectively, 1,113 and 517 participants developed dementia over 11 and 15 years of follow-up. Using multivariable cox proportional-hazards models, the hazard ratios for mild and moderate to severe visual impairment were 1.26 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.92-1.72) and 2.16 (95% CI 1.37-3.40), in UK Biobank, and 1.05 (95% CI 0.72-1.53) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.05-3.56) in EPIC-Norfolk, compared to no visual impairment. When excluding participants censored within 5 years of follow-up or with prevalent poor or fair self-reported health, the direction of the associations remained similar for moderate impairment but were not statistically significant. Our findings suggest visual impairment might be a promising target for dementia prevention, however the possibility of reverse causation cannot be excluded.

Download Full-text

U-Shaped Association of Serum Uric Acid With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in US Adults: A Cohort Study

The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism ◽

10.1210/clinem/dgz068 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 105 (3) ◽

pp. e597-e609 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Lihua Hu ◽

Guiping Hu ◽

Benjamin Ping Xu ◽

Lingjuan Zhu ◽

Wei Zhou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Uric Acid ◽

Cohort Study ◽

Serum Uric Acid ◽

Inflection Point ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Specific Mortality ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Background In addition to the controversy regarding the association of hyperuricemia with mortality, uncertainty also remains regarding the association between low serum uric acid (SUA) and mortality. We aimed to assess the relationship between SUA and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Methods This cohort study included 9118 US adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2002). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between SUA and mortality. Our analysis included the use of a generalized additive model and smooth curve fitting (penalized spline method), and 2-piecewise Cox proportional hazards models, to address the nonlinearity between SUA and mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 5.83 years, 448 all-cause deaths occurred, with 100 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths, 118 cancer deaths, and 37 respiratory disease deaths. Compared with the reference group, there was an increased risk of all-cause, CVD, cancer, and respiratory disease mortality for participants in the first and third tertiles of SUA. We further found a nonlinear and U-shaped association between SUA and mortality. The inflection point for the curve was found at a SUA level of 5.7 mg/dL. The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality were 0.80 (0.65-0.97) and 1.24 (1.10-1.40) to the left and right of the inflection point, respectively. This U-shaped association was observed in both sexes; the inflection point for SUA was 6 mg/dL in males and 4 mg/dL in females. Conclusion Both low and high SUA levels were associated with increased all-cause and cause-specific mortality, supporting a U-shaped association between SUA and mortality.

Download Full-text

P993Incidence of atrial fibrillation early after cavotricuspid isthmus ablation

EP Europace ◽

10.1093/europace/euaa162.184 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

P Krisai ◽

O Streicher ◽

P Meyre ◽

P Haemmerle ◽

F Steiner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Right Atrial ◽

Left Ventricular Ejection ◽

Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Holter Ecg ◽

Cavotricuspid Isthmus ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Models

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common finding in patients undergoing cavotricuspid isthmus ablation for isthmus dependent right atrial flutter (RAF). Little is known about the time of its occurrence. Purpose We aimed to investigate the incidence of AF early after RAF ablation in a well-defined, prospective cohort. Methods A total of 255 participants with RAF ablation from 5 centers and at least one completed follow-up were included. Structured clinical follow-up was performed at 3, 6 and 12 months including a 24 hour Holter-ECG. The endpoint was incidence of AF detected clinically or by Holter-ECG. Risk factors associated with the occurrence of AF were assessed using separate, univariate Cox proportional-hazards models. Results Mean age was 67 years, 80% were male and previous episodes of AF were known in 40%. Over a mean follow-up of 7.4 (±4.4) months AF was detected in 35 (13.7%) participants after RAF ablation (Figure A). After 3, 6 and 12 months AF was detected in 18 (7.1%), 30 (11.7%) and 34 (13.3%) patients. No difference in the incidence of AF after RAF ablation was found comparing patients with and without a history of AF (log-rank p value = 0.44) (Figure B). Comparing patients with and without AF during follow-up, there was no difference in age (68 vs 66 years, p = 0.36), sex (69 vs 81% male, p = 0.08), prior heart failure (29 vs 19%, p = 0.20), hypertension (43 vs 38%, p = 0.56) or left atrial volume (46.6 vs 39.6 ml, p = 0.10), but patients with previous AF had a lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (45.7 vs 52.3%, p = 0.02). In separate, univariate Cox proportional-hazards models only increasing LVEF (Hazard ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval (0.95; 0.99, p = 0.02)) was associated with a lower risk of incident AF after RAF ablation, but no other risk factor. Conclusions AF occurred in 13.7% of patients early after cavotricuspid isthmus ablation for RAF. There was no difference in the occurrence of AF between patients with and without previously known episodes of AF. Only impaired LVEF was associated with AF occurrence. Abstract Figure

Download Full-text

Indicators of Crash Risk in Older Adults: A Longitudinal Analysis From the ACTIVE Study

Journal of Aging and Health ◽

10.1177/08982643211031346 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 089826432110313

Author(s):

Karlene K. Ball ◽

Olivio J. Clay ◽

Jerri D. Edwards ◽

Bernadette A. Fausto ◽

Katie M. Wheeler ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Crash Risk ◽

Significant Finding ◽

Site Location ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Male Sex

Objective: This study aims to examine indicators of crash risk longitudinally in older adults ( n = 486). Method: This study applied secondary data analyses of the 10 years of follow-up for the ACTIVE study combined with state-recorded crash records from five of the six participating sites. Cox proportional hazards models were first used to examine the effect of each variable of interest at baseline after controlling for miles driven and then to assess the three cognitive composites as predictors of time to at-fault crash in covariate-adjusted models. Results: Older age, male sex, and site location were each predictive of higher crash risk. Additionally, worse scores on the speed of processing cognitive composite were associated with higher crash risk. Discussion: Results support previous findings that both age and male sex are associated with higher crash risk. Our significant finding of site location could be attributed to the population density of our testing sites and transportation availability.

Download Full-text

Depression as a risk factor for the development of rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

RMD Open ◽

10.1136/rmdopen-2018-000670 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. e000670 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Isabelle A Vallerand ◽

Ryan T Lewinson ◽

Alexandra D Frolkis ◽

Mark W Lowerison ◽

Gilaad G Kaplan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽

Cohort Study ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Future Research ◽

Health Improvement ◽

Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Antidepressant Use

ObjectivesMajor depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with increased levels of systemic proinflammatory cytokines, including tumour necrosis factor alpha. As these cytokines are pathogenic in autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA), our aim was to explore on a population-level whether MDD increases the risk of developing RA.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database (from 1986 to 2012). Observation time was recorded for both the MDD and referent cohorts until patients developed RA or were censored. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the risk of developing RA among patients with MDD, accounting for age, sex, medical comorbidities, smoking, body mass index and antidepressant use.ResultsA cohort of 403 932 patients with MDD and a referent cohort of 5 339 399 patients without MDD were identified in THIN. Cox proportional hazards models revealed a 31% increased risk of developing RA among those with MDD in an unadjusted model (HR=1.31, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.36, p<0.0001). When adjusting for all covariates, the risk remained significantly increased among those with MDD (HR=1.38, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.46, p<0.0001). Antidepressant use demonstrated a confounding effect that was protective on the association between MDD and RA.ConclusionMDD increased the risk of developing RA by 38%, and antidepressants may decrease this risk in these patients. Future research is necessary to confirm the underlying mechanism of MDD on the pathogenesis of RA.

Download Full-text

Colours of fruit and vegetables and 10-year incidence of CHD

British Journal Of Nutrition ◽

10.1017/s0007114511001942 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 106 (10) ◽

pp. 1562-1569 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Linda M. Oude Griep ◽

W. M. Monique Verschuren ◽

Daan Kromhout ◽

Marga C. Ocké ◽

Johanna M. Geleijnse

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Population Based ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Fruit And Vegetables ◽

Orange Yellow ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Models ◽

Hazard Ratios ◽

Orange Fruit ◽

Incident Cases

The colours of the edible part of fruit and vegetables indicate the presence of specific micronutrients and phytochemicals. The extent to which fruit and vegetable colour groups contribute to CHD protection is unknown. We therefore examined the associations between fruit and vegetables of different colours and their subgroups and 10-year CHD incidence. We used data from a prospective population-based cohort including 20 069 men and women aged 20–65 years who were enrolled between 1993 and 1997. Participants were free of CVD at baseline and completed a validated 178-item FFQ. Hazard ratios (HR) for the association between green, orange/yellow, red/purple, white fruit and vegetables and their subgroups with CHD were calculated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. During 10 years of follow-up, 245 incident cases of CHD were documented. For each 25 g/d increase in the intake of the sum of all four colours of fruit and vegetables, a borderline significant association with incident CHD was found (HR 0·98; 95 % CI 0·97, 1·01). No clear associations were found for the colour groups separately. However, each 25 g/d increase in the intake of deep orange fruit and vegetables was inversely associated with CHD (HR 0·74; 95 % CI 0·55, 1·00). Carrots, their largest contributor (60 %), were associated with a 32 % lower risk of CHD (HR 0·68; 95 % CI 0·48, 0·98). In conclusion, though no clear associations were found for the four colour groups with CHD, a higher intake of deep orange fruit and vegetables and especially carrots may protect against CHD.

Download Full-text

Parity and the risk of incident dementia: a COSMIC study

Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences ◽

10.1017/s2045796020000876 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 29 ◽

Author(s):

J. B. Bae ◽

D. M. Lipnicki ◽

J. W. Han ◽

P. S. Sachdev ◽

T. H. Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Significant Risk ◽

Significant Risk Factor ◽

Population Based ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Community Dwelling ◽

Alzheimer Dementia ◽

Grand Multiparity ◽

Incident Dementia

Abstract Aims To investigate the association between parity and the risk of incident dementia in women. Methods We pooled baseline and follow-up data for community-dwelling women aged 60 or older from six population-based, prospective cohort studies from four European and two Asian countries. We investigated the association between parity and incident dementia using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for age, educational level, hypertension, diabetes mellitus and cohort, with additional analysis by dementia subtype (Alzheimer dementia (AD) and non-Alzheimer dementia (NAD)). Results Of 9756 women dementia-free at baseline, 7010 completed one or more follow-up assessments. The mean follow-up duration was 5.4 ± 3.1 years and dementia developed in 550 participants. The number of parities was associated with the risk of incident dementia (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02–1.13). Grand multiparity (five or more parities) increased the risk of dementia by 30% compared to 1–4 parities (HR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.02–1.67). The risk of NAD increased by 12% for every parity (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.02–1.23) and by 60% for grand multiparity (HR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.00–2.55), but the risk of AD was not significantly associated with parity. Conclusions Grand multiparity is a significant risk factor for dementia in women. This may have particularly important implications for women in low and middle-income countries where the fertility rate and prevalence of grand multiparity are high.

Download Full-text