THE CHANGES OF CLOUD COVER CHARACTERISTICS OVER TERRITORY OF UKRAINE DURING OF THE GLOBAL WARMING

2019 ◽  
pp. 121-130
Author(s):  
T. Zabolotska ◽  
V.M. Shpyg ◽  
A.Yu. Tsila
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Statistical Estimation ◽  
North Central ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
West North Central ◽  
Overcast Sky

The statistical estimation of changes of the cloud cover characteristics was made by the data of the meteorological observations over Ukraine during 1961-2017. Such characteristics as the quantity of total and lower cloudiness, the frequency of clear and overcast sky, the frequency of main cloud forms were analyzed. Monthly, seasonal and annual observational data were used for computation of the trends, the sliding of thirty years (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 2001-2017) and the fluctuations between successive decades in regions (west, north, central, east and south). The clear sky frequency for total cloudiness was decreasing with different intensity in all regions. This decreasing was forcing all time on west and east and against the gradually stopping on central and south and forcing in third sliding of thirty years and stopping in fourth on north. The clear sky frequency for lower cloudiness was more complex and indeterminate. The overcast sky frequency for total and lower cloudiness was decreasing all time in all regions with different intensity in space and time. The half-clear sky frequency for total and lower cloudiness was forcing all time in all regions with different intensity in space and time. The quasi-periodicity changes of the cloud cover characteristics for total and lower cloudiness confirm the fluctuations of the changes between the successive decades. These changes agree with the corresponding changes of air pressure on level sea. The decreasing of the frequency of main cloud forms was 55 %, the increasing was 45 %. The increasing of the frequency Cb, Ac, Cc and Ci was all time over all territory

ZABOLOTSKA T.M., SHPYG V.M., TSILA A.YU. CIRCULATION INDEXES AND THE CLOUD COVER DURING OF THE GLOBAL WARMING PERIOD

2021 ◽  
pp. 76-91
Author(s):  
T.M. Zabolotska ◽  
V.M. Shpyg ◽  
A.Yu. Tsila
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Relative Frequency ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Monthly Variations ◽  
Overcast Sky

The investigations of connection between the different meteorological processes, for example, the circulation indexes with the quantity of the total and lower cloudiness during 1961-2018 over Ukraine were made. The spatial distributions of the total and lower cloudiness were received for 73 years (1946-2018) at first. The quantity of cloudiness is diminished from west to east and with north to south. The declinations of the annual data of total and lower cloudiness from the historical (1961-1990) and the present (1981-2010) norms were calculated. The great variations were characterized for the lower cloudiness. The linear trends showed that the diminish of the lower cloudiness was on 90 % of the all territory, this changes were important on 70 % of the territory. The trends of the monthly variations were showed on the diminish of the lower cloudiness in during all year only on north, on other territory was the increasing in the separate months, frequently in January and September. The variations of the total cloudiness were insignificant, the increase or decrease were nearly in equal parts. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), East-Atlantic Oscillation (EA), Scandinavian Oscillation (SCAND), Greenlandic Oscillation (GBI) and South Oscillation (El-Niño) were used for the investigation of relationship between the circulation indexes and cloud cover. It was shown that different circulation indexes have influence on climate of Northern Hemisphere and on Ukraine too. The relation with each other and their variations in period of global warming were showed. The quantity estimation of the total and lower cloudiness variations was made by the frequencies of clear, semi clear and overcast sky in the successive decades and by the relative variations of frequencies between decades (1961-1970 and 1971-1980; 1971-1980 and 1981-1990; 1981-1990 and 1991-2000; 1991-2000 and 2001-2010; 2001-2010 and 2011-2018). The parallel analyze of the variations of circulation was estimated in that time. The difference between the circulating processes during 1961-1970 and 1971-1980 contributed to a decrease in the relative frequency of the clear sky (on 5.4%) and a slight increase of the overcast sky (on 1.6%) by total cloud cover and a slight increase of the clear sky (on 0.8 %) and a decrease of the overcast sky (on 5.2%) by lower cloudiness. At the same time, the relative frequency of the semi-clear sky by lower cloudiness almost in three times increased in comparison to total cloudiness (on 10.2% and 3.8%, respectively). In the third decade of 1981-1990 the relative frequency of clear sky by lower cloudiness increased on 5.1% and did not change by total cloudiness (0%). During this decade the relative frequency of overcast sky decreased the most in the whole period under study: by total cloudiness on 6.4% and by lower cloudiness on 13.3%. At the same time, the relative frequency of semi-clear sky had largest increasing: on 22.4% for total cloudiness and 13% for lower cloudiness. Then, during 1991-2000, the frequency of clear sky decreased significantly both for total cloudiness (on 6.5%) and for lower cloudiness (on 3.1%). The frequency of overcast sky decreased also, but less significantly (on 1.3% and 2.3%, respectively), thereby the number of clouds of the middle and upper levels increased. From 2001 to 2010, the frequency of clear sky by total cloudiness and by lower cloudiness continued to decrease (on 5.3 and 3.2%, respectively), but the frequency of overcast sky increased (on 0.9 and 1.7%, respectively), thereby the number of clouds for all levels increased. During 2011-2018 the frequency of clear sky by total cloudiness increased (on 0.9%) and by lower cloudiness did not change. The frequency of overcast sky decreased on 3.6% (by total cloudiness) and on 0.7% (by lower cloudiness). The variations of the relative frequencies of the different state sky between the successive decades are agreed with the changes of the circulation indexes.

scholarly journals Comparison of Cloud Cover from All-Sky Imager and Meteorological Observer

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 1093-1101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Huo ◽  
Daren Lu
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Middle Level ◽  
Improved Method ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
Thin Cloud ◽  
Sky Imager ◽  
High Level ◽  
Overcast Sky

Abstract Naked-eye observation of cloud cover has widely resisted automation. Replacement of human observation by instruments is an inexorable trend for the development of ground-based macroscopic cloud observation. In this paper, cloud covers from an all-sky imager (ASI) are compared with those from a meteorological observer (MO) through field experiments performed at three sites in China. The correlation coefficient between ASI and MO is 0.77 for all cases. The ASI cloud fractions have great agreement with MO for clear sky, overcast sky, and sky loaded with low- and middle-level clouds. About 78% of the ASI cases had deviations between ±1 tenth compared to MO cloud cover. High-level cloud (or aerosol) is the main reason causing this difference. It is partially due to MO, who takes aerosol as high, thin cloud. Another reason might be that ASI made a wrong estimation for high-level cloud (or aerosol) because of its detector and the cloud-determination algorithm. Distinguishing high, thin cloud from aerosol is a challenge, and is the main problem that needs to be resolved for future developments of ASI. A new, improved method is discussed at the end of this paper.

PRE-BONNEVILLE LAKES IN CACHE VALLEY AND EXCAVATION OF CUTLER NARROWS ACROSS THE CACHE BUTTE DIVIDE IN THE WEST, NORTH-CENTRAL UTAH AND SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Q. Oaks ◽  
◽  
Susanne U. Janecke ◽  
Tammy M. Rittenour ◽  
Thad L. Erickson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The West ◽  
North Central ◽  
Cache Valley ◽  
West North Central

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

Abstract MP75: Geographic Variation in Stroke Rates and Oral Anticoagulation Use among Medicare Beneficiaries with Atrial Fibrillation

Circulation ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 137 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Inmaculada Hernandez ◽  
Samir Saba ◽  
Yuting Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Geographic Variation ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Medicare Beneficiaries ◽  
The West ◽  
North Central ◽  
Census Division ◽  
Adjusted Rate ◽  
West North Central

Background: Recent studies have shown strong geographic variation in oral anticoagulation (OAC) use in atrial fibrillation (AF); however, it remains unknown how this contributes to the geographic variation in ischemic stroke observed across the US. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the relationship between the geographic variation in the initiation of OAC and the incidence of ischemic stroke in a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries newly diagnosed with AF. Methods: Using 2013-2014 claims data from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries, we identified patients newly diagnosed with AF in 2013-2014 and categorized them according to their initiation of OAC. Our sample included 21,226 OAC initiators and 20,068 patients who did not initiate OAC therapy. We assigned each patient to one of the 9 US Census Divisions using the zip code, and collected their medical claims with a diagnosis of ischemic stroke. We constructed logistic regression models to estimate the average adjusted probability of OAC initiation and Poisson models to estimate the average adjusted rate of ischemic stroke, in each Census Division. Both estimates were adjusted for demographics, eligibility for Medicaid coverage and for low-income subsidy, enrollment in a Medicare Advantage Part D plan, and a comprehensive list of clinical characteristics. We computed the correlation between the average adjusted probability of OAC initiation and the average adjusted rate of ischemic stroke at the Census Division level. Results: The probability of OAC initiation was lowest in the West South Central (0.47) and highest in the West North Central (0.54) and New England (0.54). The average adjusted rate of ischemic stroke was lowest in the West North Central (0.09) and highest in the South Atlantic (0.14) and South West Central (0.14). The average adjusted probability of OAC initiation at the Census Division level and the average adjusted rate of ischemic stroke were inversely correlated, with R=-0.576, p-value=0.10. This suggests that variation in OAC initiation likely explains at least a third of geographic variation in ischemic stroke [R 2 =(-0.576) 2 =0.332]. Conclusions: Our results suggest that geographic variations in OAC initiation within the U.S. explain, in part, variations in the incidence of ischemic stroke among AF patients. Further mechanistic research using advanced causal mediation models is warranted.

PUBLIC HEALTH, NURSING AND MEDICAL SOCIAL WORK

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1949 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 865-865
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
New York ◽  
New England ◽  
Central Area ◽  
General Distribution ◽  
North Central ◽  
Medical Social Work ◽  
South Central ◽  
Health Nursing ◽  
West North Central

A "Measles Year" ACCORDING to the reports of the U.S. Public Health Service, this is a measles year. For example, a total of 15,266 cases were reported for the week of January 29, 1949, compared to a five year median of 6,712. Increases were reported in all geographic divisions except New England and the West North Central area. The largest increases were in the East South Central and South Atlantic areas. Of the total that week, an aggregate of 10,522 cases occurred in the following 12 states: Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, Texas, Oregon, and California. In contrast to measles, the influenza incidence picture shows an unusually low number of cases. For example, in the week of January 29, 1949, a total of 4,534 cases was reported, compared to a five year median of 14,253. List of Publications Under date of March 1948 the Children's Bureau has published a list of its publications. The list includes all publications of the Children's Bureau issued since 1945 that are available for general distribution; earlier publications of the Bureau that are still available and of current value; some reprints of material published elsewhere but reproduced by or for the Bureau. Pediatricians will find some of these reprints of particular interest. Single copies of the list and of most of the publications can be obtained free from the Children's Bureau, Washington 25, D.C.

PUBLIC HEALTH, NURSING AND MEDICAL SOCIAL WORK

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1948 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 138-140
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
New England ◽  
The West ◽  
Central Section ◽  
North Central ◽  
South Central ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Health Nursing ◽  
West North Central

THE accompanying table summarizes the incidence of nine important communicable diseases, based on weekly telegraphic reports from State health departments. The reports from each State for each week are published in PUBLIC HEALTH REPORTS under the section "Incidence of Disease." [See Table in Source Pdf]. Diseases Above Median Incidence Measles—The number of cases of measles rose from 102,680 during the preceding 4 weeks to 114,983 during the 4 weeks ended May 22. The incidence was 3.4 times the number of cases reported for the corresponding period in 1947, which was, however, a comparatively low measles year, but it was only about 10 percent above the 1943-47 median. In the New England and East South Central sections the incidence was below the normal expectancy and in the South Atlantic section the number of cases was only slightly higher than the median for the preceding 5 years, but in the other 6 sections the increases over the median expectancy ranged from 1.1 times the median in the West North Central section to 3.4 times the median in the West South Central section. Poliomyelitis.— The number of cases of poliomyelitis rose from 126 during the preceding 4-week period to 440 during the current 4 weeks. The incidence was 3.5 times that reported for these weeks in 1947, which number (126 cases) also represents the 1943-47 median. An increase of this disease is expected at this season of the year, but the current number of cases represents a larger increase at this time than has normally occurred in preceding years. While each section of the country except New England contributed to the relatively high incidence, the greatest excesses over the 5-year medians were reported from the West North Central and West South Central sections. Of the total cases Texas reported 179, California 62, South Carolina 46, New Jersey 16, Iowa 14, Florida 12, Alabama 11, and Illinois, South Dakota, and Louisiana 10 each; 85 percent of the reported cases occurred in those 10 states which represent every section of the country except the New England and Mountain sections. Since the beginning of the year there have been 947 cases of poliomyelitis reported as compared with 894 and 810 for the corresponding period in 1947 and 1946, respectively.

scholarly journals Discussion of Identification, Estimation and Approximation of Risk under Interventions that Depend on the Natural Value of Treatment Using Observational Data, by Jessica Young, Miguel Hernán, and James Robins

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark J. van der Laan ◽  
Alexander R. Luedtke ◽  
Iván Díaz
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Robust Estimation ◽  
Statistical Estimation ◽  
Estimation Problem ◽  
Target Parameter ◽  
Adaptive Parameters ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Data Adaptive ◽  
Statistical Estimation Problem

AbstractYoung, Hernán, and Robins consider the mean outcome under a dynamic intervention that may rely on the natural value of treatment. They first identify this value with a statistical target parameter, and then show that this statistical target parameter can also be identified with a causal parameter which gives the mean outcome under a stochastic intervention. The authors then describe estimation strategies for these quantities. Here we augment the authors’ insightful discussion by sharing our experiences in situations where two causal questions lead to the same statistical estimand, or the newer problem that arises in the study of data adaptive parameters, where two statistical estimands can lead to the same estimation problem. Given a statistical estimation problem, we encourage others to always use a robust estimation framework where the data generating distribution truly belongs to the statistical model. We close with a discussion of a framework which has these properties.

scholarly journals A Study of the Surface Air Temperature Variations in Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najib Yusuf ◽  
Daniel Okoh ◽  
Ibrahim Musa ◽  
Samson Adedoja ◽  
Rabia Said
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The South ◽  
Climate Type ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
North Central ◽  
North East ◽  
The North

Background: Simultaneous measurements of air temperature were carried out using automatic weather stations at 14 tropical locations in Nigeria. Diurnal variations were derived from the 5-minute update cycle initial data for the years ranging between 2007 and 2013. The temperature trends in Nigeria revealed a continuous variability that is seasonally dependent within any particular year considered. Method: The analysis was carried out using available data from the network and the results are presented with a focus to characterize the temperature variations at different locations in the country using the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures from the north which is arid in nature to the south, which is a tropical monsoon climate type and a coastal region. Result: In overall, temperature variations in Nigeria were observed to have higher values in the far north, attributed to the influence of Sahara Desert, which has less cloud cover and therefore is more transparent to solar irradiance and lowers values in the south, where there are more cloud cover and abundant vegetation. Conclusion: Measured maximum and minimum temperatures in Nigeria are respectively 43.1°C at Yola (north-east part of Nigeria) and 10.2°C for Jos (north-central part of Nigeria). The least temperature variations were recorded for stations in the southern part of the country, while the largest variations were recorded in the north-central region of the country.

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