Full-Wavefield, Full-Domain Deterministic Modeling of Shallow Low-Magnitude Events for Improving Regional Ground-Motion Predictions

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (5) ◽  
pp. 2617-2634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanhua O. Yuan ◽  
Martin-D. Lacasse ◽  
Fushen Liu
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Velocity Models ◽  
Full Domain ◽  
Low Magnitude

ABSTRACT At the fundamental level, seismic risk analysis relies on good modeling tools for predicting the ground motion resulting from hypothetical earthquake events, which is traditionally approximated using many variations of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The main benefit of these equations lies in their low computational cost, allowing one to run Monte Carlo simulations in which event probabilities are dictated by regional catalogs comprising historical observations. These equations, however, rely on approximations that are only accurate in a statistical sense. In this study, we consider cases in which regional high-resolution 3D earth models are available from exploration reflection seismology. These high-fidelity velocity models allow us to perform deterministic elastic ground-motion simulations at local distances, given a prescribed synthetic earthquake event, and compare the results with those predicted by GMPEs. This full-wavefield full-domain modeling approach is significantly more costly and particularly challenging due to the slow shear-wave velocity at the near surface, which requires fine spatial and temporal discretizations. With the aid of powerful computational resources, we use an adaptive mesh generator and an efficient wave solver to model the 3D elastic and anelastic wave propagation from the hypocenter all the way to the ground surface. This approach can simultaneously account for 3D subsurface structures, near-surface site effects, topographic relief, and the radiation pattern of the source. In areas where observations are sparse, the modeling results can fill the gap between stations and provide a test bed that can be used for improving the development and accuracy of GMPEs. This approach is well suited for areas where shallow low-magnitude-induced seismic events can occur. Lastly, to demonstrate our approach, we consider an observed seismic event at the Groningen gas field and compare the recorded ground motions with both—those predicted by our approach and those predicted by GMPEs.

scholarly journals Developing a model for the prediction of ground motions due to earthquakes in the Groningen gas field

2017 ◽  
Vol 96 (5) ◽  
pp. s203-s213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian J. Bommer ◽  
Bernard Dost ◽  
Benjamin Edwards ◽  
Pauline P. Kruiver ◽  
Michail Ntinalexis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Nonlinear Site Response ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

AbstractMajor efforts are being undertaken to quantify seismic hazard and risk due to production-induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field as the basis for rational decision-making about mitigation measures. An essential element is a model to estimate surface ground motions expected at any location for each earthquake originating within the gas reservoir. Taking advantage of the excellent geological and geophysical characterisation of the field and a growing database of ground-motion recordings, models have been developed for predicting response spectral accelerations, peak ground velocity and ground-motion durations for a wide range of magnitudes. The models reflect the unique source and travel path characteristics of the Groningen earthquakes, and account for the inevitable uncertainty in extrapolating from the small observed magnitudes to potential larger events. The predictions of ground-motion amplitudes include the effects of nonlinear site response of the relatively soft near-surface deposits throughout the field.

scholarly journals Ground motions in urban Los Angeles from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110039
Author(s):  
Filippos Filippitzis ◽  
Monica D Kohler ◽  
Thomas H Heaton ◽  
Robert W Graves ◽  
Robert W Clayton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Earthquake Sequence ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction Equations ◽  
Prediction Equations ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
Velocity Models ◽  
Spectral Accelerations

We study ground-motion response in urban Los Angeles during the two largest events (M7.1 and M6.4) of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence using recordings from multiple regional seismic networks as well as a subset of 350 stations from the much denser Community Seismic Network. In the first part of our study, we examine the observed response spectral (pseudo) accelerations for a selection of periods of engineering significance (1, 3, 6, and 8 s). Significant ground-motion amplification is present and reproducible between the two events. For the longer periods, coherent spectral acceleration patterns are visible throughout the Los Angeles Basin, while for the shorter periods, the motions are less spatially coherent. However, coherence is still observable at smaller length scales due to the high spatial density of the measurements. Examining possible correlations of the computed response spectral accelerations with basement depth and Vs30, we find the correlations to be stronger for the longer periods. In the second part of the study, we test the performance of two state-of-the-art methods for estimating ground motions for the largest event of the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, namely three-dimensional (3D) finite-difference simulations and ground motion prediction equations. For the simulations, we are interested in the performance of the two Southern California Earthquake Center 3D community velocity models (CVM-S and CVM-H). For the ground motion prediction equations, we consider four of the 2014 Next Generation Attenuation-West2 Project equations. For some cases, the methods match the observations reasonably well; however, neither approach is able to reproduce the specific locations of the maximum response spectral accelerations or match the details of the observed amplification patterns.

Framework for a Ground-Motion Model for Induced Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis in the Groningen Gas Field, The Netherlands

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 481-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian J. Bommer ◽  
Peter J. Stafford ◽  
Benjamin Edwards ◽  
Bernard Dost ◽  
Ewoud van Dedem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Ground Motion Model ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

The potential for building damage and personal injury due to induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field is being modeled in order to inform risk management decisions. To facilitate the quantitative estimation of the induced seismic hazard and risk, a ground motion prediction model has been developed for response spectral accelerations and duration due to these earthquakes that originate within the reservoir at 3 km depth. The model is consistent with the motions recorded from small-magnitude events and captures the epistemic uncertainty associated with extrapolation to larger magnitudes. In order to reflect the conditions in the field, the model first predicts accelerations at a rock horizon some 800 m below the surface and then convolves these motions with frequency-dependent nonlinear amplification factors assigned to zones across the study area. The variability of the ground motions is modeled in all of its constituent parts at the rock and surface levels.

scholarly journals Basin Resonance and Seismic Hazard for Jakarta, Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasius Cipta ◽  
Phil Cummins ◽  
Masyhur Irsyam ◽  
Sri Hidayati
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Response Spectrum ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Computational Domain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Earthquake Scenario ◽  
Design Response Spectrum ◽  
Intraslab Earthquake

We use earthquake ground motion modelling via Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) and numerical simulation of seismic waves to consider the effects of site amplification and basin resonance in Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia. While spectral accelerations at short periods are sensitive to near-surface conditions (i.e., Vs30), our results suggest that, for basins as deep as Jakarta’s, available GMPEs cannot be relied upon to accurately estimate the effect of basin depth on ground motions at long periods (>1 s). Amplitudes at such long periods are influenced by entrapment of seismic waves in the basin, resulting in longer duration of strong ground motion, and interference between incoming and reflected waves as well as focusing at basin edges may amplify seismic waves. In order to simulate such phenomena in detail, a basin model derived from a previous study is used as a computational domain for deterministic earthquake scenario modeling in a 2-dimensional cross-section. A Mw 9.0 megathrust, a Mw 6.5 crustal thrust and a Mw 7.0 instraslab earthquake are chosen as scenario events that pose credible threats to Jakarta, and the interactions with the basin of seismic waves generated by these events were simulated. The highest PGV amplifications are recorded at sites near the middle of the basin and near its southern edge, with maximum amplifications of PGV in the horizontal component of 200% for the crustal, 600% for the megathrust and 335% for the deep intraslab earthquake scenario, respectively. We find that the levels of ground motion response spectral acceleration fall below those of the 2012 Indonesian building Codes's design response spectrum for short periods (< 1 s), but closely approach or may even exceed these levels for longer periods.

A Seismic Alert System for Oil & Gas Offshore Fields

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela Poggi ◽  
Emilia Fiorini ◽  
Daniela Tonoli ◽  
Francesca Ioele ◽  
Eric John Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Focal Depth ◽  
Threshold Values ◽  
Alert System ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
Earthquake Data

Abstract Objectives/Scope This paper presents an innovative web tool developed for the seismic monitoring of critical infrastructure. As an example, we describe an application for the ENI offshore facilities, Jangkrik and Merakes Fields Development, offshore Indonesia. Methods, Procedures, Process The system monitors reported seismic activity in a project area, and issues warnings when earthquakes detected may have directly or indirectly impacted facilities. Notifications allow the owner to optimize decisions regarding post-earthquake asset surveys and maintenance, avoiding the need for inspections in areas not significantly affected. A system of email alerts and a web based GIS platform provide the end-user with a tool to control its own assets. Results, Observations, Conclusions The purpose of the tool is to indirectly monitor earthquakes in an area and identify those which may have damaged the Oil and Gas facilities of interest. This identification requires accurate near real-time earthquake data such as date, time, location, magnitude, and focal depth. To this end, the system retrieves earthquake data from a qualified set of public seismic agencies. The system computes the expected values of shaking at the specific offshore facilities (platforms, subsea structures, pipelines, etc.). Calculations are based on sets of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) selected to match the seismotectonic environment. The expected values of seismic acceleration generated by an earthquake are compared with threshold values and a warning message is issued to the facilities supervisors when the ground acceleration exceeds design values. Threshold values related to secondary seismic effects (e.g., seismically induced landslides, debris flow) which could affect facilities integrity are also considered in the alert system. Threshold values are defined considering project seismic and geohazard documents, to summarize strong ground motion parameters that could potentially trigger damaging seismic geohazards, and project design documents to collect all data about seismic design of the assets. Monitoring intervals are defined based on the documentation screening. Several alarm levels are selected, based on the potential severity of earthquake effects. The more severe levels of ground motion, with high damage potential, can trigger recommendation for inspection. Novel/Additive Information Asset integrity and safety are key drivers in the offshore petroleum industry. Safety performance with respect to earthquakes is a fundamental issue in all seismic prone areas. The seismic alert system presented highlights, in near real time, earthquakes that are potentially critical for structures in an Oil and Gas field. This allows the owners to make quick decisions and plan necessary intervention regarding assets affected directly or indirectly by earthquakes. Exploiting the wide background of knowledge in engineering and geoscience and the modern availability of global earthquake data, the tool can provide useful assistance in managing asset integrity, regardless of the availability of local seismic networks or strong motion stations.

Shallow velocity structure and poisson's ratio at the Tarzana, California, strong-motion accelerometer site

1996 ◽  
Vol 86 (6) ◽  
pp. 1704-1713 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. Catchings ◽  
W. H. K. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Velocity Structure ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
P Wave ◽  
S Wave ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Velocity Models ◽  
Wave Velocities ◽  
Poisson's Ratios ◽  
Poisson’S Ratios

Abstract The 17 January 1994, Northridge, California, earthquake produced strong ground shaking at the Cedar Hills Nursery (referred to here as the Tarzana site) within the city of Tarzana, California, approximately 6 km from the epicenter of the mainshock. Although the Tarzana site is on a hill and is a rock site, accelerations of approximately 1.78 g horizontally and 1.2 g vertically at the Tarzana site are among the highest ever instrumentally recorded for an earthquake. To investigate possible site effects at the Tarzana site, we used explosive-source seismic refraction data to determine the shallow (<70 m) P-and S-wave velocity structure. Our seismic velocity models for the Tarzana site indicate that the local velocity structure may have contributed significantly to the observed shaking. P-wave velocities range from 0.9 to 1.65 km/sec, and S-wave velocities range from 0.20 and 0.6 km/sec for the upper 70 m. We also found evidence for a local S-wave low-velocity zone (LVZ) beneath the top of the hill. The LVZ underlies a CDMG strong-motion recording site at depths between 25 and 60 m below ground surface (BGS). Our velocity model is consistent with the near-surface (<30 m) P- and S-wave velocities and Poisson's ratios measured in a nearby (<30 m) borehole. High Poisson's ratios (0.477 to 0.494) and S-wave attenuation within the LVZ suggest that the LVZ may be composed of highly saturated shales of the Modelo Formation. Because the lateral dimensions of the LVZ approximately correspond to the areas of strongest shaking, we suggest that the highly saturated zone may have contributed to localized strong shaking. Rock sites are generally considered to be ideal locations for site response in urban areas; however, localized, highly saturated rock sites may be a hazard in urban areas that requires further investigation.

Two robust imaging methodologies for challenging environments: Wave-equation dispersion inversion of surface waves and guided waves and supervirtual interferometry + tomography for far-offset refractions

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. SM27-SM37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Li ◽  
Kai Lu ◽  
Sherif Hanafy ◽  
Gerard Schuster
Keyword(s):  
Wave Equation ◽  
Velocity Distribution ◽  
Surface Waves ◽  
Guided Waves ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Dispersion Curves ◽  
P Wave ◽  
Head Wave ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Velocity Models

Two robust imaging technologies are reviewed that provide subsurface geologic information in challenging environments. The first one is wave-equation dispersion (WD) inversion of surface waves and guided waves (GW) for the shear-velocity (S-wave) and compressional-velocity (P-wave) models, respectively. The other method is traveltime inversion for the velocity model, in which supervirtual refraction interferometry (SVI) is used to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of far-offset refractions. We have determined the benefits and liabilities of both methods with synthetic seismograms and field data. The benefits of WD are that (1) there is no layered-medium assumption, as there is in conventional inversion of dispersion curves. This means that 2D or 3D velocity models can be accurately estimated from data recorded by seismic surveys over rugged topography, and (2) WD mostly avoids getting stuck in local minima. The liability is that WD for surface waves is almost as expensive as full-waveform inversion (FWI) and, for Rayleigh waves, only recovers the S-velocity distribution to a depth no deeper than approximately 1/2 to 1/3 wavelength of the lowest-frequency surface wave. The limitation for GW is that, for now, it can estimate the P-velocity model by inverting the dispersion curves from GW propagating in near-surface low-velocity zones. Also, WD often requires user intervention to pick reliable dispersion curves. For SVI, the offset of usable refractions can be more than doubled, so that traveltime tomography can be used to estimate a much deeper model of the P-velocity distribution. This can provide a more effective starting velocity model for FWI. The liability is that SVI assumes head-wave first arrivals, not those from strong diving waves.

scholarly journals RETRACTED ARTICLE: Estimation of the source process and forward simulation of long-period ground motion of the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi, Japan, earthquake

2019 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hisahiko Kubo ◽  
Asako Iwaki ◽  
Wataru Suzuki ◽  
Shin Aoi ◽  
Haruko Sekiguchi
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Velocity Structure ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Waveform Inversion ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Velocity Models ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Slip Area

Abstract In this study, we investigate the source rupture process of the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake in Japan (MJMA 6.7) and how the ground motion can be reproduced using available source and velocity models. First, we conduct a multiple-time-window kinematic waveform inversion using strong-motion waveforms, which indicates that a large-slip area located at a depth of 25–30 km in the up-dip direction from the hypocenter was caused by a rupture propagating upward 6–12 s after its initiation. Moreover, the high-seismicity area of aftershocks did not overlap with the large-slip area. Subsequently, using the obtained source model and a three-dimensional velocity structure model, we conduct a forward long-period (< 0.5 Hz) ground-motion simulation. The simulation was able to reproduce the overall ground-motion characteristics in the sedimentary layers of the Ishikari Lowland.

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