Quasi-periodic occurrence of earthquakes in the 1978-1986 Bishop-Mammoth Lakes sequence, eastern California

1987 ◽  
Vol 77 (4) ◽  
pp. 1347-1358
Author(s):  
J. C. Savage ◽  
Robert S. Cockerham
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Convincing Evidence ◽  
Data Selection ◽  
Individual Event ◽  
Physical Explanation ◽  
Interevent Interval ◽  
Prior Event ◽  
Important Activity ◽  
Mammoth Lakes

Abstract In December 1984, Ryall and Hill noted that the five principal events in the Bishop-Mammoth Lakes earthquake sequence occurred at intervals of about 1.5 yr with a standard deviation for an individual event of 0.25 yr. Some data selection was involved in identifying the principal events, although the choices seemed reasonable. The recent Chalfant Valley earthquake (ML = 6.4; 21 July 1986) followed the last prior principal event in the Bishop-Mammoth Lakes sequence by 1.65 yr, and no important activity intervened except one aftershock from the prior event. Thus, the Chalfant Valley earthquake could have been forecast from the observed periodicity. However, the precision of the forecast (±0.8 yr for the 95 per cent confidence interval) is not sufficient to furnish convincing evidence that the Bishop-Mammoth Lakes sequence is quasi-periodic. Extrapolation of the trend established by the six previous events suggests that the next event in the Bishop-Mammoth Lakes sequence would be expected in December 1987 ± 0.7 yr (95 per cent confidence interval). The regularity of the Bishop-Mammoth Lakes sequence is comparable to that of the Parkfield, California, sequence (average interevent interval 20.8 yr with a standard deviation for an individual interval of 6.2 yr). Both sequences consist of six events. There is a plausible physical explanation for the periodicity observed at Parkfield; such an explanation for the Bishop-Mammoth Lakes sequence is lacking.

Using Connectionist Modules for Decision Support

1990 ◽  
Vol 29 (03) ◽  
pp. 167-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Hripcsak
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Connectionist Model ◽  
Test Set ◽  
The Third ◽  
Independent Test ◽  
Better Than

AbstractA connectionist model for decision support was constructed out of several back-propagation modules. Manifestations serve as input to the model; they may be real-valued, and the confidence in their measurement may be specified. The model produces as its output the posterior probability of disease. The model was trained on 1,000 cases taken from a simulated underlying population with three conditionally independent manifestations. The first manifestation had a linear relationship between value and posterior probability of disease, the second had a stepped relationship, and the third was normally distributed. An independent test set of 30,000 cases showed that the model was better able to estimate the posterior probability of disease (the standard deviation of residuals was 0.046, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.046-0.047) than a model constructed using logistic regression (with a standard deviation of residuals of 0.062, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.062-0.063). The model fitted the normal and stepped manifestations better than the linear one. It accommodated intermediate levels of confidence well.

Translational delivery of Cool Little Kids to prevent child internalising problems: Randomised controlled trial

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordana K Bayer ◽  
Ruth Beatson ◽  
Lesley Bretherton ◽  
Harriet Hiscock ◽  
Melissa Wake ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Anxiety Disorders ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Adjusted Odds Ratio ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Secondary Outcomes ◽  
Randomised Controlled ◽  
Internalising Problems

Objective: To determine whether a population-delivered parenting programme assists in preventing internalising problems at school entry for preschool children at-risk with temperamental inhibition. Methods: Design: a randomised controlled trial was used. Setting: the setting was 307 preschool services across eight socioeconomically diverse government areas in Melbourne, Australia. Participants: a total of 545 parents of inhibited 4-year-old children: 498 retained at 1-year follow up. Early intervention: Cool Little Kids parenting group programme was implemented. Primary outcomes: the primary outcomes were child DSM-IV anxiety disorders (assessor blind) and internalising problems. Secondary outcomes: the secondary outcomes were parenting practices and parent mental health. Results: At 1-year follow up (mean (standard deviation) age = 5.8 (0.4) years), there was little difference in anxiety disorders between the intervention and control arms (44.2% vs 50.2%; adjusted odds ratio = 0.86, 95% confidence interval = [0.60, 1.25], p = 0.427). Internalising problems were reduced in the intervention arm (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire: abnormal – 24.2% vs 33.0%; adjusted odds ratio = 0.56, 95% confidence interval = [0.35, 0.89], p = 0.014; symptoms – mean (standard deviation) = 2.5 (2.0) vs 2.9 (2.2); adjusted mean difference = –0.47, 95% confidence interval = [–0.81, –0.13], p = 0.006). Parents’ participation in the intervention was modest (29.4% attended most groups, 20.5% used skills most of the time during the year). A priori interaction tests suggested that for children with anxious parents, the intervention reduced anxiety disorders and internalising symptoms after 1 year. Conclusion: Offering Cool Little Kids across the population for inhibited preschoolers does not impact population outcomes after 1 year. Effects may be emerging for inhibited children at highest risk with parent anxiety. Trial outcomes will continue into mid-childhood.

scholarly journals The impact of systolic and diastolic blood pressure variability on mortality is age dependent: Data from the Dublin Outcome Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 355-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Bilo ◽  
Eamon Dolan ◽  
Eoin O'Brien ◽  
Rita Facchetti ◽  
Davide Soranna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Diastolic Blood Pressure ◽  
Cardiovascular Mortality ◽  
Blood Pressure Variability ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Outcome Study ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Impact

Background Twenty-four-hour blood pressure variability (BPV) is independently related to cardiovascular outcomes, but limited and conflicting evidence is available on the relative prognostic importance of systolic and diastolic BPV. The aim of this study was to verify the hypothesis that the association of systolic and diastolic blood pressure variability over 24 h with cardiovascular mortality in untreated subjects is affected by age. Design and methods The study included 9154 untreated individuals assessed for hypertension between 1982 and 2002 in the frame of the Dublin Outcome Study, in which 24 h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring was obtained (age 54.1 ± 14.3 years, 47% males). The association of short-term systolic and diastolic blood pressure variability with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the entire sample and separately in younger and older age subgroups was assessed over a median follow-up period of 6.3 years. Results Diastolic BPV was directly and independently related to cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (adjHR) for daytime standard deviation 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.08–1.26)) with no significant differences among age groups. Conversely, systolic BPV was independently associated with cardiovascular mortality only in younger (<50 years) subjects (adjHR for daytime standard deviation 1.72 (95% confidence interval 1.33–2.23)), superseding the predictive value of diastolic BPV in this group. Conclusions Diastolic short-term BPV independently predicts cardiovascular mortality in hypertensive subjects at all ages, while systolic BPV seems a particularly strong predictor in young adults. If confirmed, these findings might improve the understanding of the prognostic value of BPV, with new perspectives for its possible clinical application.

Reliability-Based Design Optimization With Confidence Level Under Input Model Uncertainty

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoojeong Noh ◽  
K. K. Choi ◽  
Ikjin Lee ◽  
David Gorsich ◽  
David Lamb
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Design Optimization ◽  
Optimum Design ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Reliability Based Design Optimization ◽  
Reliability Based Design ◽  
Input Model

For obtaining correct reliability-based optimum design, an input model needs to be accurately estimated in identification of marginal and joint distribution types and quantification of their parameters. However, in most industrial applications, only limited data on input variables is available due to expensive experimental testing costs. The input model generated from the insufficient data might be inaccurate, which will lead to incorrect optimum design. In this paper, reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) with the confidence level is proposed to offset the inaccurate estimation of the input model due to limited data by using an upper bound of confidence interval of the standard deviation. Using the upper bound of the confidence interval of the standard deviation, the confidence level of the input model can be assessed to obtain the confidence level of the output performance, i.e. a desired probability of failure, through the simulation-based design. For RBDO, the estimated input model with the associated confidence level is integrated with the most probable point (MPP)-based dimension reduction method (DRM), which improves accuracy over the first order reliability method (FORM). A mathematical example and a fatigue problem are used to illustrate how the input model with confidence level yields a reliable optimum design by comparing it with the input model obtained using the estimated parameters.

scholarly journals Hippuric acid in urine: reference values

2002 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-727 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Elisa PB Siqueira ◽  
Maria José N Paiva
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Reference Values ◽  
Hippuric Acid ◽  
Smoking Habit ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Good Health ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
The Impact

OBJECTIVE: To establish reference values for hippuric acid (HA) excreted in the urine, and to evaluate the impact of age, gender, alcohol, and tobacco, on these levels in a population nonexposed to toluene. METHODS: Reference values for hippuric acid in urine were determined in 115 toluene nonexposed healthy volunteers, from Alfenas city, Southeastern Brazil. A questionnaire was applied to each volunteer and data on occupational and personal habits were collected. Biochemical and hematological analyses were used to confirm the volunteers' good health condition. Reference values were expressed in g HA/g urine creatinine, as mean ± standard deviation (x ± SD), median, 95% confidence interval (95%CI), 95th percentile, and upper reference value (URV, mean +2 SD). RESULTS: Reference values of hippuric acid in urine were: mean ± standard deviation =0.18±0.10; median =0.15; 95% confidence interval =0.16±0.20; 95th percentile = 0.36 and upper reference value (URV, mean +2 SD) =0.38. Statistically significant differences in urinary HA (Wilcoxon - Mann/Whitney, p<0.05) were observed for different genders and age groups. Alcohol ingestion and smoking habit did not significantly affect the results. CONCLUSIONS: The reference values of hippuric acid in urine can be used in biomonitoring programs of workers occupationally exposed to toluene, especially in the southern region of the state of Minas Gerais. Age and gender may affect the HA reference values.

scholarly journals Influence of Maternal Gestational Hypertensive Disorders on Microvasculature in School-Age Children

2016 ◽  
Vol 184 (9) ◽  
pp. 605-615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gizem Dilan Yesil ◽  
Olta Gishti ◽  
Janine F. Felix ◽  
Irwin Reiss ◽  
Mohammad Kamran Ikram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Systolic Blood Pressure ◽  
Standard Deviation Score ◽  
Maternal Blood ◽  
Deviation Score ◽  
Hypertensive Disorders ◽  
Maternal Blood Pressure ◽  
Retinal Arteriolar

Abstract Gestational hypertensive disorders may lead to vascular changes in the offspring. We examined the associations of maternal blood pressure development and hypertensive disorders during pregnancy with microvasculature adaptations in the offspring in childhood. This study was performed as part of the Generation R Study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands (2002–2012), among 3,748 pregnant mothers and their children for whom information was available on maternal blood pressure in different periods of pregnancy and gestational hypertensive disorders. Childhood retinal arteriolar and venular calibers were assessed at the age of 6 years. We found that higher maternal systolic and diastolic blood pressures in early pregnancy were associated with childhood retinal arteriolar narrowing (P &lt; 0.05). Higher maternal systolic blood pressure in late pregnancy, but not in middle pregnancy, was associated with childhood narrower retinal venular caliber (standard deviation score per standardized residual increase in systolic blood pressure: −0.05; 95% confidence interval: −0.08, −0.01). Paternal blood pressure was not associated with childhood retinal vessel calibers. Children of mothers with gestational hypertensive disorders tended to have narrower retinal arteriolar caliber (standard deviation score: −0.13, 95% confidence interval: −0.27, 0.01). Our results suggest that higher maternal blood pressure during pregnancy is associated with persistent microvasculature adaptations in their children. Further studies are needed to replicate these observations.

scholarly journals Korelasi Inovasi dan Kinerja pada Industri Kecil dan Menengah: Kajian Meta-Analisis

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Trifandi Lasalewo ◽  
Avin Fadilla Helmi
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Analytical Study ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Negative Implication ◽  
And Performance ◽  
A Company

The effect of innovation on performance of Small and Medium Industries (SMIs) draws a great ofattention from researchers and practitioners to study further. Based on empirical findings, it is foundout that the correlation between innovation and performance is dependent on context, that is theinnovation does not affect the performance of a company or indicated negative implication betweeninnovation and performance. Meanwhile, other researches reported positive effects of innovation andperformance. The review of researches on the correlation between innovation and SMIs performanceshows contradictory results.The meta-analytical study is aimed at investigating further thecorrelation between innovation and performance on SMI based on researches published between 2004and 2013 in 5 continents (Australia, Asia, Europe, Africa and America). The independent variablewas innovation and the dependent variable was performance, while the moderators variable consistedof the year of the research and the location of survei. The result of the meta-analytical study on thecorrelation between innovation and performance indicated a positive correlation with mean 0.459and the standard deviation 0.168 on 95% confidence interval.

scholarly journals Assessment of Characteristics and Conditions before the End of Lockdown

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David San-Martín-Roldán ◽  
Francisca Rojo-Lazo ◽  
Aracelis Calzadilla-Núñez ◽  
Pablo San-Martín-Roldán ◽  
Patricia Díaz-Calzadilla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Pcr Test ◽  
Over Time

After months of blockades and restriction, the decision of the best time to end the lockdown after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is the big question for health rectors. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics and conditions for ending the blockade after the first wave of COVID-19. Data on the variables of interest were subjected to linear and non-linear regression studies to determine the curve that best explains the data. The coefficient of determination, the standard deviation of y in x, and the observed curve of the confidence interval were estimated. Regression which was estimated subsequently revealed the trend curve. The study found that all dependent variables tend to decrease over time in a quadratic fashion, except for the variable for new cases. In general, the R2 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) estimates were satisfactory: gradual and cautious steps should be taken before ending the lockdown. The results suggested that a surveillance of crucial indicators (e.g., incidence, prevalence, and PCR test positivity) should be maintained before lockdown is terminated. Moreover, the findings indicated that long-term preparations should be made to contain future waves of new cases.

scholarly journals Prevalencia de síndrome de burnout en los estudiantes de la Carrera de Enfermería de la Universidad Central del Ecuador

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 38-54
Author(s):  
Luzmila De Jesús Carvajal Andrade ◽  
◽  
Belén del Rocío Logacho Villacís ◽  
Ramiro Rogelio Rojas Jaramillo ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Nursing School ◽  
The Other ◽  
Burnout Syndrome ◽  
Information Analysis ◽  
Academic Burnout ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
The Mean

This research has been conducted in order to determine the Prevalence of the burnout syndrome among students from third to eighth semester who are attending the Nursing School. It was a prevalence study; the data were collected using the survey’s technique, in a questionnaire divided in five sections applied to 172 students. The information analysis was calculated using the Mean method and the Standard Deviation for the Academic burnout, while for the Labor burnout it was utilized the punctuation of: high, medium and low scales. The outcome results showed that the prevalence of the burnout Syndrome in both academic and labor was low. The 2.3 % of students had the Academic burnout, (Confidence interval: 95%, lower limit: 0.44% and upper limit: 4.21%) with a probability of 3.52%, on the other hand the Labor burnout was of 4% among students in the shifting internship, with a probability of 1.22%. Key words: Syndrome burnout, Stress, nursing.

scholarly journals Sample size for estimating average trunk diameter and plant height in eucalyptus hybrids

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 1192-1199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho ◽  
Rafael Beltrame ◽  
Dilson Antônio Bisognin ◽  
Marília Lazarotto ◽  
Clovis Roberto Haselein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Sample Size ◽  
Plant Height ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
Trunk Diameter ◽  
Diameter At Breast Height ◽  
Breast Height ◽  
Variance Homogeneity ◽  
Mean Variance

ABSTRACT: In eucalyptus crops, it is important to determine the number of plants that need to be evaluated for a reliable inference of growth. The aim of this study was to determine the sample size needed to estimate average trunk diameter at breast height and plant height of inter-specific eucalyptus hybrids. In 6,694 plants of twelve inter-specific hybrids it was evaluated trunk diameter at breast height at three (DBH3) and seven years (DBH7) and tree height at seven years (H7) of age. The statistics: minimum, maximum, mean, variance, standard deviation, standard error, and coefficient of variation were calculated. The hypothesis of variance homogeneity was tested. The sample size was determined by re sampling with replacement of 10,000 re samples. There was an increase in the sample size from DBH3 to H7 and DBH7. A sample size of 16, 59 and 31 plants is adequate to estimate DBH3, DBH7 and H7 means, respectively, of inter-specific hybrids of eucalyptus, with amplitude of confidence interval of 95% equal to 20% of the estimated mean.

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