scholarly journals A Study on the Policy Implications for Using Aging Workforces of Research and Development Field in the Era of Working Age Population Decline

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-10
Author(s):  
이영민
1987 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 687-698 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ghaffar Chaudhry ◽  
Zubeda Khan

Labour supply is a key element in socio-economic development, and although the size, growth and composition of population have a strong bearing on its supply in an economy, the actual labour supply is a function of the labour force participation rate defined as the ratio of the population engaged in or seeking gainful employment to the working-age population. In Pakistan gainful employment means not only work for pay or profit but also unpaid help from family members, and the working-age population refers to the group of those aged 10 years or more. Although the use of labour force for computing participation rates has been criticised on the ground that it lays undue emphasis on market activities which have little relevance tb the less developed countries, particularly to the rural sector, (Standing 1978), it is nonetheless useful in studying household decisions regarding allocation of available time between productive and non-productive activities (Rees 1973). It is basically this division of labour between productive and non-productive activities that sheds light on the degree of development of an economy and, therefore, on the organization of factors of production (Yotopoulos 1986). The significance of rural participation rates, especially those of females, is noteworthy in this regard as there is a positive association between female productive work and the level of development achieved (Denti 1968). Female participation rates are also important for a proper understanding of the productive and reproductive roles of the population. As more than 70 percent of rural population depends on agriculture for its livelihood and rural females are nearly half of the total, their participation rates may be of critical importance in determining the rates of saving, investment and productivity in agriculture. It may also be noted that availability of labour in agriculture is also a function of the ready availability of female labour, especially for such operations as are performed exclusively by females, e.g. cotton picking.


Significance This has implications for the size of the workforce and the living standards that the US economy is capable of supporting. It will also have broader consequences for the US economy over the next 30 years. Impacts Lower workforce participation rates will lower average living standards, relative to what they would have otherwise been, by 10% by 2050. Medicare and social security spending will rise by 4% of GDP over the next 30 years; higher taxes or spending cuts elsewhere will be needed. Immigration is projected to be just sufficient to offset natural population decline by 2050, cushioning the working-age population drop. Estimating the extent to which immigration and automation could help to fill worker shortages over the longer term is difficult.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miliausha Akhmetzianova ◽  
Alsu Atnabaeva

According to Rosstat, today in 56 regions of the Russian Federation there is a negative population dynamics. For 52 regions, this decline is explained by natural population decline, of which 42 regions have a negative migration balance. The Republic of Bashkortostan is included in the group of regions with a high level of outflow of young working-age population. This trend has been observed for 14 years, which may indicate that the conditions provided by municipalities do not correspond to the desired standard of living of the population. In this case, two components of the problem under consideration can be distinguished: on the one hand, residents are moving to other constituent entities of the Russian Federation, and on the other, the population is centralized in large cities within the region. In this connection, this article is devoted to the disclosure of the specifics of migration through the analysis of the level of attractiveness of territories for the working-age population. The aim of the study is to assess the labor attractiveness of municipal districts and cities of the Republic of Bashkortostan. As part of the study, a component analysis of 62 municipalities was carried out (CATA) Mizhgirya was not included in the analysis due to the specifics of the legal status of this municipal formation) for 13 indicators characterizing the socio-economic situation of districts and cities that affect population migration. The results of the component analysis formed the basis for assessing the level of attractiveness by calculating the coefficient through a single integral indicator. The indicators of the first component were used to conduct cluster analysis, as a result of which 5 clusters of municipal districts and cities were formed, characterizing the level of attractiveness of the territory. Using the above methods, on the basis of a comprehensive multivariate assessment, the coefficients of attractiveness of territories and the intervals of their belonging to clusters were determined. The clusters of territories obtained in the course of the analysis and mathematical calculations of assessments of attractiveness formed the basis for constructing a cartographic scheme for the distribution of municipal districts and cities of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The scientific novelty of the study consists in combining the results of a comprehensive multifactorial assessment of the territory from the standpoint of determining the factors of attractiveness (component analysis) and methods of spatial grouping of territories (cluster analysis), which make it possible to determine the coefficients of attractiveness of municipalities and the intervals of their belonging to clusters. From a practical point of view, the results of the study formed the basis for constructing a cartographic scheme for the distribution of municipal districts and cities of the Republic of Bashkortostan, which makes it possible to increase the effectiveness of state policy measures in the field of regulating migration processes in the region by developing specific measures taking into account the peculiarities of the development of a particular group of territories.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Iman Al-Ayouty ◽  
Hoda Hassaballa ◽  
Maha El Hini

Most energy intensive industries are high carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters. As CO2 emissions show large discrepancies between regions, it is important to test for spatial dependence when estimating emissions. The present study thus examines spatial dependence of CO2 emissions for the twenty-seven governorates of Egypt over the period 2007-2016. Determinants of CO2 emissions include road network density, investments in fixed assets, the structure of economic activity, the share of females, and the various levels of education in the regions’ respective population. Incorporating the spatial dimension, as well as using female and educational levels amongst the determinants, are contributions to research done on CO2 emissions in Egypt. Estimation results indicate that CO2 emissions across governorates are spatially-random rather than spatially-dependent. The study therefore uses a generalized method of moments (GMM) dynamic panel model. The lag of CO2 emissions per capita, net fixed capital formation, share of illiterates in the working age population, and the share of services in economic activity are significant and have positive effects (increasing emissions). The share of females in working age population, and the share of agriculture in economic activity are significant and have negative effects (diminishing emissions). Policy implications based on the study results are given.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 85-135
Author(s):  
Zarina Kazbekova

In the context of the working-age population decline in the Russian Federation, the study of the influence of the dynamics of the share of the working -age population on economic growth is of particular interest. The main purpose of the article is to assess the contribution of the first demographic dividend to the GDP per capita growth rate in Russia betwеen 1997 and 2015. The main methods used by the author of this work are statistical analysis and econometric modeling based on Rosstat data. According to the results obtained in the course of this study, the first demographic dividend provided about 13% growth of real GDP per capita in the Russian Federation in 1997-2015. It has been proved that the age structure of the population is important.


Author(s):  
Semyonova V. G. ◽  
◽  
Ivanova A. E. ◽  
Sabgayda T. P. ◽  
Zubko A. V. ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Valentin N. Druzhinin ◽  
Vadim G. Suvorov ◽  
Nikolay V. Druzhinin ◽  
Aleksandr N. Cherniyi ◽  
Sergey N. Troynyakov

Currently, the problem of reducing the risk of developing fat liver hepatosis from exposure to household and industrial toxicants among the working-age population continues to be an important medical and social problem, since not timely diagnosis of the disease can lead to its progressive course with the development of inflammatory changes, necrosis and liver fibrosis up to cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer. In this regard, the search for methods and techniques that optimize the diagnosis of fat hepatosis is relevant. Modern methods of radiation diagnostics of liver density characteristics can significantly reduce subjectivity in the assessment of changes due to the use of quantitative indicators. The aim of study - improving the quality of x-ray diagnostics of fat liver disease based on a precision assessment of the density of the liver parenchyma using computed tomography. A comparative retrospective analysis of the results of a comprehensive clinical and radiological examination of 115 men of working age in the range of 40-55 years was performed. The main group (48 people) - employees of machine-building plants: shapers, stumpers, fitters-assemblers who had industrial contact with such factors as local vibration, dust, noise, muscle strain, burdened with a long alcoholic history and the presence of signs of metabolic syndrome: hyperlipidemia, impaired tolerance to carbohydrates, diabetes, abdominal obesity. The comparison group included representatives of auxiliary professions without clinical signs of pathology (47 people), comparable in age and experience with the main group. X-ray examinations were performed using computer tomographs: "HI Spead CT/e Dual" by GE Medical Systems and "Aqulion 64" by Toshiba. To measure the liver density in Hounsfield units (HU), the ROI (zone of interest) tool was used, which allows determining the desired value over areas of different dimensions. Measurements were performed on computer screens in 4 zones of interest at 4 levels of scanning of the liver lobes (apex, level of the caval gate, level of the left lobe, level of the portal gate) with the calculation of the average values of the density index (IDH) and density gradients (IDG) relative to the aorta, spleen and kidney. Analysis of the results of a posteriori CT densitometry of various parts of the liver within the framework of the developed algorithm, including the use of absolute and relative (gradient) x-ray density indicators of hepatic, vascular (aorta),splenic and renal structures, allowed us to expand our understanding of the quantitative density characteristics both in normal and in patients with signs of diffuse fat hepatosis (FH). It was found that the liver parenchyma density indicators can be a kind of (conditional), sometimes the only indicators of the degree of severity of changes that objectively manifest positive or negative dynamics of pathophysiological processes and, in particular, at the initial stages of the development of the studied pathology. Density differences in the right and left liver parenchyma in the control group (conditional norm) in terms of absolute density and its gradient, regardless of the level of scanning, were insignificant (statistically unreliable). In patients with clinical signs of fatty liver infiltration at the stage of steatosis, in the absence of x-ray morphologically detectable structural changes, a decrease in IDH and the dynamics of its increase (recovery) at various stages of observation were revealed. Even with comparatively equal IDH of the evaluated departments, the IDG of different people differed, manifesting the individuality of metabolic processes occurring in the body, in particular in the liver, is a kind of indicator of their direction and severity. The significance of density indicators as predictors of the subsequent stages of the pathology under consideration was particularly evident in the analysis of the results of primary diagnostics and its development in the dynamics of observations. The application of the developed methodological approach allowed us to expand our understanding of the possibilities of KT-liver densitometry in patients with metabolic syndrome (hyperlipidemia, impaired carbohydrate tolerance, diabetes mellitus, abdominal obesity) in the diagnosis of fatty liver disease (FLD) at various stages of examination, including in the early subclinical phases of pathology development. The results obtained indicate the predominant role of ethyl alcohol as a hepatotoxicant in the development of FLD in the estimated cohort of the working-age population. The use of an original algorithm for evaluating tissue density makes it possible to significantly ensure the objectivity of the interpretation of research results.


Author(s):  
Ľubica Hurbánková ◽  

The paper deals with the analysis of unemployment in European Union countries on the basis of data of the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed. The data are obtained from the Eurostat website. The aim of the paper is to find out how the number of unemployed in individual EU countries changed in 2018 compared to 2009, in which country the number of unemployed increased the most, in which the least. Appropriate tools of economic statistics are used for the analysis. Based on a four-factor model of the analysis of the number of unemployed, we find out how this indicator has changed depending on the change in the unemployment rate, the economic activity rate, the share of the working age population in the total population, and the total population. The application of statistical method is implemented through the programme Microsoft Office Excel.


Author(s):  
S. Voronkova

The article discusses ways to obtain information about risk factors and the health status of the population. The article describes a new information system «labor Medicine», which allows to organize the collection of a wide range of data for further analysis and application in the activities of various Executive authorities, public organizations, foundations, legal entities and citizens. It is proposed to improve this system by expanding the types of information collected, creating a passport for health promotion organizations, as well as integration with systems that are being implemented in the Russian Federation for managing the health of the working-age population in the context of state policy in the field of Informatization.


2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.


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