scholarly journals APPLICATION OF THE HOLT-WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD ON THE AIR POLLUTION STANDARD INDEX IN SURABAYA

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Silmi Muna ◽  
Kuntoro Kuntoro
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
City Environment ◽  
The People ◽  
The Government ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
Policies And Programs ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

The Air Pollution Standards Index (APSI) is an indicator that shows how clean or polluted the air is in a city. It also portrays the health impacts towards the people who breathe it in. Based on the Indonesian Ministry of Environment monitoring through the Air Quality Monitoring Station (AQMS), the city of Surabaya only had 22 up to 62 days of air categorized as good in a year. The purpose of this study was to forecast APSI as a scientific-based reference for making decisions and policies that were appropriate in tackling the effects of air pollution on health. This study was non-obstructive or non-reactive research. The research method used was time series to identify the time relationship. The data used were secondary data taken from the APSI documents from 2014 to 2019 at the Surabaya City Environment Agency. The results of this study obtained the best model through α (0.8), γ (0.5), and δ (0.6) with the values of MAPE (0.104355), MAD (0.00842), and MSD (0.001050) calculated with the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method. The highest produced forecast value of APSI was in September 2020, and the smallest was in January 2020. This study suggests the government of Surabaya to create policies and programs to suppress the number within APSI.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Groundwater Tax Revenue Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 23006
Author(s):  
Dyna Marisa Khairina ◽  
Aqib Muaddam ◽  
Septya Maharani ◽  
Heliza Rahmania
Keyword(s):  
Reference Value ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
The Government ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

Setting the target of groundwater tax revenues for the next year is an important thing for Kutai Kartanegara Regional Office of Revenue to maximize the regional income and accelerate regional development. Process of setting the target of groundwater tax revenue for the next year still using estimation only and not using a mathematical calculation method that can generate target reference value. If the realization of groundwater tax revenue is not approaching the target, the implementation of development in the Government of Kutai Kartanegara can be disrupted. The mathematical method commonly used to predict revenue value is the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method, which uses alpha constant value which is randomly selected for the calculation process. Forecasting of groundwater tax revenue for 2018 using groundwater tax revenue data from 2013 to 2017. Single Exponential Smoothing method using alpha constant value consists of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The forecasting error value of each alpha value is calculated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The best result is forecasting using alpha value 0.1 with MAPE error value was 45.868 and the best forecasting value of groundwater tax for 2018 is Rp 443.904.600,7192.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FORECASTING DEMAND DENGAN METODE LINEAR EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (STUDI PADA: PRODUK BATIK FENDY, KLATEN)

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-89
Author(s):  
Nita Kusuma Wardani ◽  
Muhammad Roestam Afandi ◽  
Lilia Pasca Riani
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Sales Data ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstrak: Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengevaluasi tingkat akurasi peramalan permintaan Batik Fendy menggunakan teknik MAPE. Adapun jenis penelitian ini merupakan penelitian deskriptif kuantitatif, menggunakan data sekunder dari penjualan perusahaan Batik Fendy periode bulan November 2018 - Onkoter 2019. Terdapat 5 tahapan dalam analisis data, yaitu 1) mentabulasikan data penjualan dan data produksi batik Fendy, 2) mengevaluasi metode peramalan penjualan yang dilakukan oleh perusahaan Batik Fendy dengan teknik MAPE, 3) memproyeksikan nilai alpha dan beta sebagai dasar peramalan linear exponential smoothing, 4) melakukan peramalan permintaan Batik Fendy dengan metode Linear Exponential Smoothing, dan 5) melakukan evaluasi metode peramalan dengan teknik MAPE. Hasil penelitian ini adalah nilai MAPE dari peramalan permintaan yang dilakukan oeh perusahaan Batik Fendy adalah sebesar 17,5%; angka ini menunjukkan tingkat persentase kesalahan paling tinggi pada varian Batik Sarimbit Lengan Panjang, kemudian dengan data penjualan varian ini dilakukan peramalan penjualan dengan metode Linear Exponential Smoothing dan diperoleh MAPE sebesar 9,21%. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa penggunaan metode Linear Exponential Smoothing dalam memprediksi penjualan Batik Fendy varian Sarimbit Lengan Panjang lebih akurat.Abstract: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting demand for Batik Fendy using MAPE techniques. The type of this research is a quantitative descriptive study, using secondary data from the sales of the company Batik Fendy in the period November 2018 - October 2019. There are five stages in data analysis, namely 1) tabulating sales data and production data of Fendy batik, 2) evaluating sales forecasting methods conducted by the Batik Fendy company with the MAPE technique, 3) projecting alpha and beta values as the basis for forecasting linear, exponential smoothing, 4) forecasting requests for Batik Fendy with the Linear Exponential Smoothing method, and 5) evaluating the forecasting method with the MAPE technique. The results of this study are the MAPE value of demand forecasts made by the Batik Fendy company is 17.5%. This figure shows the highest percentage of error in the variant of the Sarimbit Long Sleeve Batik. With the sales data, this variant is forecasted by using the Linear Exponential Smoothing method and obtained a MAPE of 9.21%. So it can be concluded that the use of the Linear Exponential Smoothing method in predicting sales of the Sarimbit Arm Long Variant Batik is accurate.

scholarly journals Perbandingan Hasil Peramalan Jumlah Kasus HIV Berdasarkan Jenis Kelamin di Kota Malang dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Afrian Eskartya Harjono ◽  
Kuntoro Kuntoro
Keyword(s):  
Human Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

Human Immunodeficiency Virus or HIV is still one of the most serious problems especially in developing countries. This study used HIV cases that recorded in Health Departement of Malang City, East Java, as one of the variables to determine the forecasting results using Exponential Smoothing. Goals from this study was for showed the results of forecasting with Exponential smoothing method’s that hoped could be a consideration to HIV prevention’s program.This study was a non reactive research using secondary data of male and female HIV cases from January 2012 to December 2016 as a variable that would show the results of forecasting. The result of forecasting with single exponential smoothing method on parameter value α=0.5 for male HIV cases and α = 0.6 for female HIV cases. The accuracy value in this forecasting can be seen on MAPE value at parameter α = 0.5 is 27.87 for male HIV cases and parameter α = 0.6 is 47.06 for female HIV cases. The results of the forecast could be concluded that in 2017 the number of HIV cases in man and woman were totally increased from the last years, need to arrange a suitable programs that which aim to resolve the problem.

scholarly journals The Analysis of Forecasting Demand Method of Linear Exponential Smoothing

2020 ◽  
pp. 7-18
Author(s):  
Nita Kusuma ◽  
Muhammad Roestam ◽  
Lilia Pasca
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Sales Data ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting demand for Batik Fendy using MAPE techniques. The type of this research is a quantitative descriptive study, using secondary data from the sales of the company Batik Fendy in the period November 2018 - Onkoter 2019. There are 5 stages in data analysis, namely 1) tabulating sales data and production data of Fendy batik, 2) evaluating sales forecasting methods conducted by the Batik Fendy company with the MAPE technique, 3) projecting alpha and beta values ​​as the basis for forecasting linear exponential smoothing , 4) forecasting requests for Batik Fendy with the Linear Exponential Smoothing method , and 5) evaluating the forecasting method with the MAPE technique. The results of this study are the MAPE value of demand forecasts made by the Batik Fendy company is 17.5%; This figure shows the highest percentage of error in the variant of the Sarimbit Long Sleeve Batik, then with the sales data this variant is forecasted by using the Linear Exponential Smoothing method and obtained a MAPE of 9.21%. So it can be concluded that the use of the Linear Exponential Smoothing method in predicting sales of the Sarimbit Arm Long variant Batik is more accurate.

scholarly journals ANALISA PERAMALAN WINTER’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING BROWN DIBANDINGKAN DENGAN AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE PADA DATA JUMLAH KEJADIAN HIPERTENSI

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Wisoedhanie Widi .A ◽  
Nanik Dwi A.
Keyword(s):  
Community Health Centers ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Preventive Action ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Planning And Control ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
And Control

In an attempt to see and examine the situation and conditions that occur in the future to do forecasting (forecasting). Hypertension is a major disease in the ten Clinics Together and almost every month new hypertension cases occur, so the incidence of hypertension is becoming the trend and forecasting needs to be done. The purpose of this research is to do forecasting on the data the number of incident hypertension in Clinics With the city of Malang with Exponential Smoothing method using winter's Brown compared to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Arima. This type of research is the study of non reactive (non reactive research) which is a type of secondary data for research.Unit samples in this research are patients who come for the medication and patients in Clinics With hypertension Malang. in 2013 to 2016. Research data using Minitab software. The results of this study showed that both methods of forecasting results shows that tend to decrease in the year 2018 with the lowest incidence in December that as many as 58 incidents on Exponential Smoothing method of winter's and some 80 events on the method of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The existence of a trend of decrease in the incidence of hypertension can be supported by the growing health services at community health centers With has been doing various efforts in preventive action, promotif and collaborative in the handling of problems Hypertension.Through these research results, it is advisable to draw up a health center party planning and control and eradication programs work for transmission of diseases of hypertension (P2P) with reference to the results of the forecasting incidence of hypertension in the year 2018.

scholarly journals PERAMALAN KEDATANGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA INDONESIA: METODE HOLT’S WINTER EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 233
Author(s):  
Fajar Islamiyah Rahmawati ◽  
Nurafni Eltivia ◽  
Kartika Dewi Sri Susilowati
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Microsoft Excel ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
The Government ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

This reseacrh aims to predict the arrival of foreign tourists in Indonesia using the Exponential Smoothing method. This research is quantitative descriptive. The data used are data of foreign tourist arrivals according to nationality taken from the Badan Pusat Statistik. Data is managed through the Microsoft Excel application. In determining RMSE, Solver Parameter help is used in Microsoft Excel to determine the lowest error rate. The data used in this research indicate that there are trend and seasonal patterns, so the most suitable Exponential Smoothing method is the Holt's Winter Exponential Smoothing method. The results of this research indicate that foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia are predicted to increase in 2020. The results of this research are expected to help the government and related agencies in planning and decision making in the tourism industry.

scholarly journals USING EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD IN FORECASTING DOMESTIC CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR OF GHANA

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
William Obeng-Amponsah ◽  
Sun Zehou ◽  
Elias Augustine Dey
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Best Interest ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
The Government ◽  
Local Credit Market ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

The private sector of Ghana faces many problems with respect to raising capital for their operations; this is largely due to government relying heavily on the local credit market for funds for developmental projects. This study uses exponential smoothing method (ESM) in EViews to build a single sample model to forecast future domestic credit to private sector (DCPS) values in Ghana. Secondary annual data on DCPS spanning the period from 1982 to 2016 is used. The findings show that an exponential smoothing model with multiplicative error, additive trend and no seasonality fits the data best. The model had very small residual measures, which demonstrates a good model for forecasting. The estimated model is used to forecast the DCPS values for Ghana from the year 2017 to 2020. The results of this study will help private business people plan for the future. The results will also help policy makers to make informed decisions and formulate policies to improve the DCPS figures, since the private sector is the engine of growth, and crowding out would not be in the best interest of the government and the nation as a whole.

JAMINAN SOSIAL TENAGA KERJA DI INDONESIA SEBAGAI NEGARA KESEJAHTERAAN DITINJAU DARI PERSPEKTIF HUKUM PROGRESIF

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayunita Nur Rohanawati
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Legal Theory ◽  
Industrial Relations ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Black And White ◽  
Collection Process ◽  
The People ◽  
Document Collection ◽  
The Government ◽  
Security Regulations

AbstractThis study aims to determine the social security system adopted by Indonesia, see Indonesia as a function of the welfare state as mandated by the 1945 Constitution has not done well, and to know the view of progressive legal theory legislation related to social security in providing solutions to the problems of social security the workforce. This research is devoted to the study of normative legal systematics, which is intended to determine the implementation of a theory of the legal conditions that exist in society. Results of this study produces a secondary data. The data obtained from the document collection process or library materials. Of the collection process, the data were analyzed qualitatively, systematically arranged, and presented descriptively. The results showed that Indonesia is still not able to fully administer social security for the people, where social security is still a “black and white” but the State has not been able in practice to assume responsibility for the implementation of social security as a whole. About social security, the Government is still not able to provide significant changes to the equalization gain social security for the workers, but changes in social security regulations on labor is performed repeatedly. Necessary party whom dared to take a policy or decisions that benefit the workers to realize the welfare of the workers. Parties reffered to the law is used as a progressive peeler, is a party that has an important role that enterpreneurs and the Industrial Relations Court Judge.Keywords: Social Security, Labour, Progressive LawIntisariPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui sistem jaminan sosial yang dianut Indonesia, melihat fungsi Indonesia sebagai negara kesejahteraan sesuai amanat Undang-Undang Dasar Negara Republik Indonesia Tahun 1945 belum terlaksana dengan baik, serta untuk mengetahui teori hukum progresif memandang peraturan perundang-undangan terkait jaminan sosial tenaga kerja dalam memberikan solusi atas permasalahan jaminan sosial tenaga kerja tersebut.Penelitian ini bersifat normatif yang dikhususkan pada penelitian sistematika hukum, yang dimaksudkan untuk mengetahui implementasi pelaksanaan suatu teori terhadap kondisi hukum yang ada di masyarakat. Hasil penelitian ini menghasilkan suatu data sekunder. Data tersebut diperoleh dari proses pengumpulan dokumen atau bahan pustaka. Dari proses pengumpulan tersebut, data yang diperoleh dianalisis secara kualitatif disusun secara sistematis dan disajikan secara deskriptif.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia masih belum mampu secara seutuhnya menyelenggarakan jaminan sosial bagi rakyat, dimana jaminan sosial tersebut masih sebatas “hitam diatas putih” namun, negara belum mampu dalam pelaksanaannya untuk mengemban tanggung jawab pelaksanaan jaminan sosial tersebut secara utuh. Tentang jaminan sosial tenaga kerja, pemerintah masih belum mampu memberikan perubahan yang signifikan terhadap pemerataan perolehan jaminan sosial tenaga kerja bagi para pekerja tersebut, padahal perubahan peraturan tentang jaminan sosial tenaga kerja tersebut berulang kali dilakukan. Diperlukan pihak yang berani untuk mengambil suatu kebijakan atau keputusan yang bermanfaat bagi pekerja demi terwujudnya kesejahteraan bagi pekerja. Pihak sebagaimana dimaksud jika hukum progresif yang digunakan sebagai alat pengupas, adalah pihak yang memiliki peran penting yaitu pengusaha dan Hakim Pengadilan Hubungan Industrial.Kata Kunci: Jaminan Sosial, Tenaga Kerja, Hukum Progresif.

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