scholarly journals Optimizing Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Strategies Against COVID-19 Using Artificial Intelligence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vito Janko ◽  
Nina Reščič ◽  
Aljoša Vodopija ◽  
David Susič ◽  
Carlo Maria De Masi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Computational Optimization ◽  
Intervention Plan ◽  
Intervention Costs ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Real World Situation ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract One key task in the early fight against the COVID-19 pandemic was to plan non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the spread of the infection while limiting the burden on the society and economy. With more data on the pandemic being generated, it became possible to model both the infection trends and intervention costs, transforming the creation of an intervention plan into a computational optimization problem. This paper proposes a framework developed to help policy-makers plan the best combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and to change them over time. We developed a hybrid machine-learning epidemiological model to forecast the infection trends, aggregated the socio-economic costs from literature and expert knowledge, and used a multi-objective optimization algorithm to find and evaluate various intervention plans. The framework is modular and easily adjustable to a real-world situation, it is trained and tested with data collected from almost all countries of the world, and its proposed intervention plans generally outperform those used in real life in terms of both the number of infections and intervention costs.

Inaugural Address

1987 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 241-253
Author(s):  
Mian Muhammad Yasin Khan Wattoo
Keyword(s):  
General Meeting ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Annual General ◽  
Inaugural Address ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Annual General Meeting ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Almost All

Prof. Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi, Dr M. Ghaffar Chaudhry, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen: It is a privilege for me to inaugurate the Fourth Annual General Meeting of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists. I am pleased to note that within only five years of its existence the Society has evolved into a prestigious forum for a free and precious exchange of ideas among economists and policy-makers. I am told that through these annual general meetings 74 papers on various topics have been prepared and published, and that, in its Lecture Series on Development Economics, eminent international economists and demographers have read papers on leading issues in economics and demography. The literature created under the aegis of the Society furnishes useful insights into the functioning of the economy and has contributed to the comprehension of the problems of almost all areas of Pakistan's economy - agriculture, industry, trade, resource mobilization, etc. I am happy to note that the Society has helped to promote a scientific and pragmatic approach in policy-formulation and economic decision-making, and has enabled us to think systematically about the nature of the challenges posed and faced by Pakistan's economic development and about the response to this challenge.

Competitive Negotiation Tactics and Kraljic Portfolio Category in SCM

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sundar Narsimhan ◽  
Devi Prasad Ungarala
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Relational Self ◽  
Business Negotiation ◽  
Value Sharing ◽  
Conflict Situations ◽  
Carrier Selection ◽  
Negotiation Tactics ◽  
Cost Competitiveness ◽  
Almost All

Negotiation outcomes are broadly classified as Distributive/Competitive and Integrative/Collaborative. Substantial academic and research negotiation literature of the past two decades commend adoption of a collaborative style for almost all real-life conflict situations. Business negotiation materials and relational self-construal psychology studies present a picture of contrast. Negotiations being at the heart of buyer-supplier interactions drive value sharing and value co-creation aspects of modern Supply Chains. Pricing, product selection, delivery terms, shipment schedules, carrier selection, volume discounts, product training, and quality standards are all more often than not subject to negotiation between supply chain members. Negotiation interactions ensuing preparation and determination of BATNA, entail use of Competitive or Collaborative Tactics. Buyers are the protagonists in procurement organizations. And procurement often accounts for the lions share of an organizations budget. Small wonder, they drive cost competitiveness together with the firms partners. Indeed this is true of the overall Supply Chain. An Indian pharmaceutical company was chosen for the qualitative research in the form of a case study. The most popular competitive negotiation tactics were chosen for this study and buyers were asked to spell out the negotiation techniques that they deployed, material-wise (with the corresponding suppliers). This data when plotted material-wise and grouped Kraljic category-wise circumstantiates the use of competitive tactics in all Kraljic categories, marked by a refreshing nuanced approach for different categories, with intensity varying for different categories. Interviews with buyers and the key informant to discern the rationale behind use of those negotiation tactics, however, brought out a pattern despite the refreshing tendency not to straight-jacket.

Modeling COVID-19 Growing Trends to Reveal the Differences in the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions among Countries in the World (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
You Chen ◽  
Yubo Feng ◽  
Chao Yan ◽  
Xinmeng Zhang ◽  
Cheng Gao
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

BACKGROUND Adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can affect COVID-19 growing trends, decrease the number of infected cases, and thus reduce mortality and healthcare demand. Almost all countries in the world have adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread rate of COVID-19; however, it is unclear what are differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among these countries. OBJECTIVE We hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world. METHODS This study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups. RESULTS The dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals CAD integrated automatic recognition of weld paths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuan Anh Tran ◽  
Andrei Lobov ◽  
Tord Hansen Kaasa ◽  
Morten Bjelland ◽  
Ole Terje Midling
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Automatic Recognition ◽  
Integrated Method ◽  
Weld Joints ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Sequential Assembly

AbstractIn this paper, a CAD integrated method is proposed for automatic recognition of potential weld locations in large assembly structures predominantly comprised of weld joints. The intention is to reduce the total man-hours spent on manually locating, assigning, and maintaining weld-related information throughout the product life cycle. The method utilizes spatial analysis of extracted stereolithographic data in combination with available CAD functions to determine whether the accessibility surrounding a given intersection edge is sufficient for welding. To demonstrate the method, a system is developed in Siemens NX using their NXOpen Python API. The paper presents the application of the method to real-life use cases in varying complexity in cooperation with industrial partners. The system is able to correctly recognize almost all weld lines for the parts considered within a few minutes. Some exceptions are known for particular intersection lines located deep within notched joints and geometries weldable through sequential assembly, which are left as a subject to further works.

scholarly journals Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Yang ◽  
Valentina Marziano ◽  
Xiaowei Deng ◽  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Synergetic Effect ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
One Year ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractCOVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

scholarly journals Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dylan H. Morris ◽  
Fernando W. Rossine ◽  
Joshua B. Plotkin ◽  
Simon A. Levin
Keyword(s):  
Robust Control ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Intervention Policy ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractIn the absence of drugs and vaccines, policymakers use non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing to decrease rates of disease-causing contact, with the aim of reducing or delaying the epidemic peak. These measures carry social and economic costs, so societies may be unable to maintain them for more than a short period of time. Intervention policy design often relies on numerical simulations of epidemic models, but comparing policies and assessing their robustness demands clear principles that apply across strategies. Here we derive the theoretically optimal strategy for using a time-limited intervention to reduce the peak prevalence of a novel disease in the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered epidemic model. We show that broad classes of easier-to-implement strategies can perform nearly as well as the theoretically optimal strategy. But neither the optimal strategy nor any of these near-optimal strategies is robust to implementation error: small errors in timing the intervention produce large increases in peak prevalence. Our results reveal fundamental principles of non-pharmaceutical disease control and expose their potential fragility. For robust control, an intervention must be strong, early, and ideally sustained.

Design workshops in the age of climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen De Waegemaeker ◽  
Eva Kerselaers ◽  
Maarten Van Acker ◽  
Elke Rogge
Keyword(s):  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Water System ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Project ◽  
Design Workshop ◽  
Specific Barriers

Purpose As policy makers address the issue of climate adaptation, they are confronted with climate-specific barriers: a long-term horizon and a high degree of uncertainty. These barriers also hamper the development of spatial planning for climate adaptation. So how can spatial planners encompass these barriers and steer the general debate on climate adaptation? The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach This research analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of an international design workshop on climate adaptation, and drought issues in particular. Design workshops are originally an educational setting but they are increasingly employed as a tool to explore alternative futures on a complex, real-life design problem. The case study illustrates how climate-specific barriers emerged throughout the design workshop and clarifies how they were encompassed by the participating design students. Findings The research clarifies the added value of a design workshop on climate adaptation. The paper highlights specific promising characteristics of the design workshop: the visualization of future adaptation challenges and the current water system, the focus on a regional project instead of sectoral adjustments and the integration of the adaptation challenge with other socio-economic goals. In the case study Flanders, however, the necessary participation of climate experts and policy makers of other domains proved challenging. Originality/value The paper argues that a design workshop has the potential to enrich the debate and policy work on climate adaptation. In many countries with low-planning tradition, however, additional tools are needed to help set the “adaptation agenda.”

Identification of ’Effective’ Linear Joints Using Coupling and Joint Identification Techniques

1998 ◽  
Vol 120 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Ren ◽  
C. F. Beards
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Coupling Technique ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Identification Technique ◽  
Joint Identification ◽  
Stiff Joint ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Identification Techniques

Almost all real-life structures are assembled from components connected by various types of joints. Unlike many other parts, the dynamic properties of a joint are difficult to model analytically. An alternative approach for establishing a theoretical model of a joint is to extract the model parameters from experimental data using joint identification techniques. The accuracy of the identification is significantly affected by the properties of the joints themselves. If a joint is stiff, its properties are often difficult to identify accurately. This is because the responses at both ends of the joint are linearly-dependent. To make things worse, the existence of a stiff joint can also affect the accuracy of identification of other effective joints (the term “effective joints” in this paper refers to those joints which otherwise can be identified accurately). This problem is tackled by coupling these stiff joints using a generalized coupling technique, and then the properties of the remaining joints are identified using a joint identification technique. The accuracy of the joint identification can usually be improved by using this approach. Both numerically simulated and experimental results are presented.

scholarly journals An Integrated Approach to Product Delivery Planning and Scheduling

2011 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galina Merkuryeva ◽  
Vitaly Bolshakov ◽  
Maksims Kornevs
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Planning And Scheduling ◽  
Delivery Planning ◽  
Product Delivery

An Integrated Approach to Product Delivery Planning and SchedulingProduct delivery planning and scheduling is a task of high priority in transport logistics. In distribution centres this task is related to deliveries of various types of goods in predefined time windows. In real-life applications the problem has different stochastic performance criteria and conditions. Optimisation of schedules itself is time consuming and requires an expert knowledge. In this paper an integrated approach to product delivery planning and scheduling is proposed. It is based on a cluster analysis of demand data of stores to identify typical dynamic demand patterns and product delivery tactical plans, and simulation optimisation to find optimal parameters of transportation or vehicle schedules. Here, a cluster analysis of the demand data by using the K-means clustering algorithm and silhouette plots mean values is performed, and an NBTree-based classification model is built. In order to find an optimal grouping of stores into regions based on their geographical locations and the total demand uniformly distributed over regions, a multiobjective optimisation problem is formulated and solved with the NSGA II algorithm.

scholarly journals The Austrian Osteopathic Practitioners Estimates and RAtes (OPERA): a cross-sectional survey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick L.S. van Dun ◽  
Lorenzo Arcuri ◽  
Johan Verbeeck ◽  
Jorge E. Esteves ◽  
Francesco Cerritelli
Keyword(s):  
Median Number ◽  
Diagnostic Techniques ◽  
Cervical Region ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Treatment Techniques ◽  
New Information ◽  
Almost All ◽  
English Opera

Abstract Background: Since the previous survey of the osteopathic profession in Austria was almost a decade ago, an update was necessary. The Osteopathic Practitioners Estimates and RAtes (OPERA) project was developed as a Europe-based survey, whereby an updated profile of the profession not only provides new data for Austria, but also allows for a clear comparison with other European countries. Methods: A voluntary, online-based, closed-ended survey was distributed across Austria in the period between April and August 2020. The original English OPERA-questionnaire, composed of 52 questions in seven sections, was formally translated in German and adapted to the Austrian situation. Recruitment was performed through social-media and an e-based campaign.Results: The survey was completed by 338 individuals, of which 239 (71%) were female, and the median age was 40-49 years. Almost all respondents had preliminary healthcare training, mainly in physiotherapy (72%). The majority of respondents were self-employed (88%) and working as sole practitioners (54%). The median number of consultations per week was 21-25 and the majority of respondents scheduled 46-60 minutes for each consultation (69%). The most commonly used diagnostic techniques were: palpation of position/structure, palpation of tenderness and visual inspection. The most commonly used treatment techniques were cranial, visceral and articulatory/mobilisation techniques. The majority of patients estimated by respondents consulted an osteopath for musculoskeletal complaints mainly localised in the lumbar and cervical region. Although the majority of respondents experience a strong osteopathic identity, only a small proportion (17%) advertise themselves exclusively as osteopaths. Conclusions: This study represents the first published document to determine the characteristics of the osteopathic practitioners in Austria using large, national data. It provides new information on where, how, and by whom osteopathic care is delivered. The information provided may contribute to the evidence used by stakeholders and policy makers for the future regulation of the profession in Austria.

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