scholarly journals Cyprus Economy in the Light of Debt Problem

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ergin Akalpler
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Total Income ◽  
State Planning ◽  
Debt Problem ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Total Capital ◽  
Planning Office

Abstract The model created by using the independent variables of total income, total capital, total savings, government expenditures, and employment, which I think has a significant impact on the growth of the Cyprus economy, has been examined in the light of the debt problem. Annual time-series data from 1995Q to 2017Q were obtained from the Cyprus State Planning Office in Cyprus. Unrestricted VAR (Vector Autoregression) model was used to test the causal relationship of the variables considered. Empirical findings revealed that some variables such as Wald test results for 78 lags, respectively, affect the GDP growth rate together. In particular, it was observed that there are bidirectional influences between employment, government expenditures, total capital, and savings which are not estimated in former studies. In addition, total income and total savings coefficients have a unidirectional influence on employment. It has been observed that the expenditure and savings coefficients also affect the total income.

scholarly journals Hypothesizing directional causality between the governance indicators and economic growth: the case of Afghanistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Naim Azimi ◽  
Mohammad Musa Shafiq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Government Effectiveness ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
The Government

AbstractThis paper examines the causal relationship between governance indicators and economic growth in Afghanistan. We use a set of quarterly time series data from 2003Q1 to 2018Q4 to test our hypothesis. Following Toda and Yamamoto’s (J Econom 66(1–2):225–250, 1995. 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8) vector autoregressive model and the modified Wald test, our empirical results show a unidirectional causality between the government effectiveness, rule of law, and the economic growth. Our findings exhibit significant causal relationships running from economic growth to the eradication of corruption, the establishment of the rule of law, quality of regulatory measures, government effectiveness, and political stability. More interestingly, we support the significant multidimensional causality hypothesis among the governance indicators. Overall, our findings not only reveal causality between economic growth and governance indicators, but they also show interdependencies among the governance indicators.

scholarly journals A Granger Causal Analysis of Tax-Spend Hypothesis: Evidence from Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 124 ◽  
pp. 04002
Author(s):  
Hanana Khan ◽  
Maran Marimuthu ◽  
Fong-Woon Lai
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Burden ◽  
Causal Analysis ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

In economics, the investigation of the association between government revenues (GR) and government expenditures (GE) remains an essential discussion because of its vital role in policy implication concerning the Budget deficit. This paper aims to conduct a causal analysis of these two fiscal variables (government revenue and expenditure) using financial time-series data covering the period from 1990 to 2019 of Malaysia. The analyses used the unit root, Johanson Cointegration, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Unit root test proposed tested variables are integrated at a level first. Johanson's cointegration test disclosed the fact that long-run relationships exist between the tested variable. Finally, Granger causality analysis reveals a one-way relation between government revenues and expenditures and this unidirectional association is from revenues to expenditures which indicates that in Malaysia, expenditures are supported by revenues; in other words, the Tax-spend hypothesis is supported. In VECM short-run analysis, government revenues can affect government expenditures significantly and 11% disequilibrium can be corrected in the short-run. In short-run and long-run revenues are supporting expenditures. The study recommends that to avoid a high risk of economic problems like a fiscal illusion, unnecessary financial burden, and inflation policymakers should not be imposing a high tax rate to cut the budget deficit.

scholarly journals Integrated Model to Measure the Impact of Terrorism and Political Stability on FDI Inflows: Empirical Study of Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sundas Rauf ◽  
Rashid Mehmood ◽  
Aisha Rauf ◽  
Shafaqat Mehmood
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

<p>To condense saving-investment gap, transformation of technology, creation of employment opportunities and more importantly, increasing economic development of host countries, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is proven to be a significant source of investment predominantly for developing countries. Numerous standing studies have scrutinized the economic impact of terrorism and political stability by referring to decrease in FDI. This study empirically enlightens the determinants of FDI for Pakistan over the period 1970 to 2013, by using annual secondary time series data. Adopting the optimistic approach, in this study, variables in the combination of terrorism, political stability, trade openness and GDP have been analyzed applying Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. As expected, the projected results confirm that GDP, trade openness and political stability have positive and significant impact whilst terrorism has negative influence on FDI inflows in Pakistan. Because of the political stability along with stable GDP growth rate, inverse impact of terrorism has been found statistically insignificant.</p>

scholarly journals Government Expenditures and Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 241
Author(s):  
Rohaiza Kamis ◽  
Hairul Nizwan Abd Majid ◽  
Nuraida Idora M Ramlee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to empirically analyze the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth in Malaysia from 1987 to 2016. This study uses the time series data in identifying the economic growth determinants in Malaysia. The Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) is used to establish the relationship between government expenditure which are education expenditure, health expenditure, defense and security expenditure, and social services expenditure towards the economic growth in Malaysia. The findings for this study indicate all the independent variables have a significant relationship towards economic growth in Malaysia where the health expenditure is the most influenced government expenditure component towards the economic growth in Malaysia. These findings may give some overview of policy implications to the policymakers on optimising the effects of government expenditure on economic development.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of Government Agricultural Spending and Agricultural Output in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Bridget Ngodoo Mile ◽  
Victor Ushahemba Ijirshar ◽  
Simeon T. Asom ◽  
Joseph Tarza Sokpo ◽  
Joseph Fefa
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Analytical Techniques ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Government

This study examined the relationship between government agricultural spending and agricultural output in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1981 to 2019. This study used descriptive and analytical techniques such as descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test, Johansen co-integration test, vector error correction test, impulse response, and variance decomposition. The study found that all variables were not stationary at level but became stationary at first difference. The study also revealed that there is a positive effect of government agricultural spending on agricultural output in Nigeria, though, significant in the long-run only. The study also showed that there is a bidirectional relationship between government agricultural spending and agricultural output in Nigeria at 10% level of significance and that agricultural output would respond positively to shocks in government agricultural spending in Nigeria during the forecast period. Therefore, the study recommends that government expenditure on agriculture should be improved upon the funds allocated to the sector and should be made available to real farmers through the provision of fertilizers, improved seedlings and grant aiding to farmers through farmers cooperatives while farmers in Nigeria should form farmers’ cooperatives to be able to easily access credit facilities from banks as well as enhancing their easy access to farm inputs provided by the government. More so, the Nigerian government should also increase the budgetary allocation to the agricultural sector to boost food production, alleviate poverty as well as meet up with the international standard.

scholarly journals TRANSMISI HARGA JAGUNG DI PROVINSI LAMPUNG

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Rati Purwasih ◽  
Muhammad Firdaus ◽  
Sri Hartoyo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asymmetric Price Transmission ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Corn Prices

<em>Corn is one of the leading commodities in Lampung Province. The average corn price received by farmers (producers) from January 2009 to December 2014 amounted to Rp 1.820 per kilogram, while the average price of corn at the consumer level was at Rp 3.205 per kilogram. Corn prices at the consumer level are more volatile when compared with the price of corn at the producer level. The purpose of this study are to analyze the transmission of corn prices from the consumer level to the producer level in Lampung Province. The data used was a monthly time series data from January 2009 to December 2014 (72 month). Asymmetric Error Correction Model (AECM) developed by von Cramon-Taubadel and Loy (1996) was used to analyze corn price transmission from the consumer level to the producer level. Causality test results indicate that corn prices at the consumer level affect the formation of corn prices at the producer level. From AECM estimates obtained, the short run corn price transmission from the consumer level to the producer level was asymmetric. However, the long-run transmission of corn prices from the consumer level to the producer was symmetric. After the Wald test, results obtained showed that there was no prove of asymmetric price transmission from the consumer level to the producer level in the long run.</em>

scholarly journals Analisis Determinan Pajak Daerah Dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Kabupaten Aceh Utara Tahun 2009-2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Rika Sukma ◽  
Cut Putri Sari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Local Taxes ◽  
The North

This study aims to determine the effect of local taxes and government expenditures on economic growth in the North Aceh Regency. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series data in 2009-2017 obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of Aceh Regency. The data analysis method used is the Multiple Linear Regression analysis. The result partially shows that local taxes have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in North Aceh Regency, while government expenditures have a negative and significant effect on economic growth in North Aceh Regency. Simultaneously, local taxes and government spending have a significant effect on economic growth in the North Aceh Regency. Keywords: Economic Growth, Local Taxes and Government Expenditures

Development and Degradation: The Nexus between GDP, FDI, and Pollution in India

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-49
Author(s):  
Tripura Sundari C. U. ◽  
Anindita Mitra
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita

The nexus between development and environment has been a debatable topic for years, more so when foreign direct investment (FDI is used to accelerate the economy. Since environmental Kuznets curve may not be achievable by all economies and many studies have not been able to establish a consistent relationship between FDI and environment, this study determines the liaison between FDI, GDP, and pollution in India with time series data from 1990 to 2015. While per capita GDP plotted against per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emission indicates an alarming positive relation, the co-integration between FDI, GDP, and CO2 tested using unit root test statistics (augmented Dickey–Fuller test) for stationarity and then by Johansen and Juselius’s multivariate co-integration technique show a long-run co-integration. Since the existence of a relationship between variables does not prove causality, the variables are phrased in a vector error correction (VEC) form and vector error correction mechanism (VECM) Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald test which reveals that FDI has a positive and significant impact on pollution and GDP attracts FDI. This transitive relation suggests that FDI in pollution-controlling technology would be a feasible solution to sustainable development.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Fiscal Federalism for Poverty Reduction in Nigeria: An Analysis of Federal and State Governments’ Expenditures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebenezer Toyin Megbowon ◽  
Samuel Aderoju ◽  
Gbenga Sanusi
Keyword(s):  
State Government ◽  
Fiscal Federalism ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
State Government Expenditures

Abstract One of the sustained political and economic strategies that have been adopted by various countries over three decades to achieve the desired level of development is fiscal federalism. Through this economic development strategy, various levels of government within an economy have been involved in the pursuit of reducing poverty over the decades. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government expenditure on poverty reduction with respect to federal and state government expenditures respectively. The study employed the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation technique to establish long-run relationship, and to examine the magnitude of the effect of federal and state government expenditures in both the short-run and long-run periods using time-series data for the period 1981 to 2018. Results obtained indicate that only state government expenditure has positive effect on poverty reduction in Nigeria. The findings of this study therefore support the need for greater decentralization and increase in fiscal expenditure responsibilities and strengthening revenue capability in favor of state governments, giving that achieving desired poverty reduction could be achieved through increased state government spending.JEL Classification: E62, H50, I30

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