Does Lockdown Improve Air Quality? Evidence from the blockade policy of county-level units in Hubei Province, China
Abstract Background The COVID-19 posed a great threat to the health of people all over the world. In response to the outbreak of COVID-19, Wuhan implemented the blockade policy on January 23, 2020. Subsequently, other cities in Hubei responded one after another. The flow of people, production and consumption activities were greatly reduced, and air pollution in some cities was obviously improved. Method We used the daily air pollution and weather data of 103 county-level units in Hubei Province from 2019 to 2020 to test whether the blockade policy affected the air quality. The method of regression discontinuity designs is adopted. And the blockade policy implemented by the government during COVID-19 is regarded as exogenous policy impact, so as to investigate whether the blockade policy will affect the air quality. Results (1) Lockdown has indeed brought about an improvement in air quality. During the lockdown period, the AQI decreased by 15.316%, and the concentrations of four air pollutants (PM10, NO2, PM2.5 and SO2) decreased by 19.607%, 12.395%, 11.448% and 1.278% respectively. (2) The improvement of air quality brought about by the blockade policy is not sustainable, and every index rebounded again about 30 days after lockdown. (3) RD estimation found that the concentrations of AQI, PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 decreased by 35.402%, 29.207%, 14.809% and 7.751% respectively. This is consistent with the change trend of the above results, but the change range is obviously larger than the previous one. Conclusion Although the study confirmed that most pollutant indexes decreased during the lockdown period, the blockade policy is not applicable to the prevention and improvement of air pollution. We put forward the policy suggestions from the following two aspects: Firstly, promote green travel and reduce traffic emission sources. Secondly, promote end-of-pipe governance and improve emission reduction efficiency.