scholarly journals Impacts of COVID-19 interventions: Health, economics, and inequality

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Flora Meng ◽  
Dalton Jones ◽  
Roberto Rigobon ◽  
Munther Dahleh
Keyword(s):  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Socioeconomically Disadvantaged ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Disadvantaged Population ◽  
The Us ◽  
Deaths Of Despair ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is exacerbating inequalities in the US. We build an agent-based model to elucidate the differential causal effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on different communities and validate the results with US data. We simulate viral transmission and the consequent deterioration of economic conditions on socioeconomically disadvantaged and privileged populations. As found in data, our model shows that the trade-off between COVID-19 deaths and deaths of despair, dependent on the lockdown level, only exists in the socioeconomically disadvantaged population. Moreover, household overcrowding is a strong predictor of the infection rate. The model also yields new insights that fill in the gaps of our data analysis. While subsidisation narrows the socioeconomic gap in deaths of despair, the combination of testing and contact tracing alone is effective at reducing disparities in both types of death. Our results contribute to policy modelling and evaluation for reducing inequality during a pandemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

Religion and Religiosity in the US

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Detlef Pollack ◽  
Gergely Rosta
Keyword(s):  
Social Inequality ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Religion And Politics ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Religious Practices ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Although the countries of Western Europe are very similar to the US in terms of their social, political, and economic conditions, they differ greatly when it comes to religion. Chapter 10 discusses how these differences can be explained. The empirical analysis shows that, besides the considerable differences in the level of religiosity between the US and Western Europe, there are also surprising similarities in the weakening church ties and religious practices. The findings demonstrate that it is in many respects not Europe but America that is the exception. This relates among other things to the level of social inequality, which is unusually high for a modern society, the strong tendencies towards functional dedifferentiation, such as between religion and politics, and the traditionalism of the culturally accepted system of values.

scholarly journals Investigating Dynamics of COVID-19 Spread and Containment with Agent-Based Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5367
Author(s):  
Amirarsalan Rajabi ◽  
Alexander V. Mantzaris ◽  
Ece C. Mutlu ◽  
Ozlem O. Garibay
Keyword(s):  
Disease Model ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Contact Behavior ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Behavioral Adaptations ◽  
Travel Restrictions

Governments, policy makers, and officials around the globe are working to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by making decisions that strive to save the most lives and impose the least economic costs. Making these decisions require comprehensive understanding of the dynamics by which the disease spreads. In traditional epidemiological models, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during an epidemic, yet adaptive behavior is well documented (i.e., fear-induced social distancing). In this work we revisit Epstein’s “coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease” model in order to extend and adapt it to explore fear-driven behavioral adaptations and their impact on efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The inclusion of contact behavior adaptation endows the resulting model with a rich dynamics that under certain conditions reproduce endogenously multiple waves of infection. We show that the model provides an appropriate test bed for different containment strategies such as: testing with contact tracing and travel restrictions. The results show that while both strategies could result in flattening the epidemic curve and a significant reduction of the maximum number of infected individuals; testing should be applied along with tracing previous contacts of the tested individuals to be effective. The results show how the curve is flattened with testing partnered with contact tracing, and the imposition of travel restrictions.

scholarly journals Exploring the effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app using an agent-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
User Rate

AbstractA contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure—including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

scholarly journals Predictors of 10-year mortality in a population of community-dwelling Brazilian elderly: the Bambuí cohort study of aging

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 (suppl 3) ◽  
pp. s360-s369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Fernanda Lima-Costa ◽  
Sergio Viana Peixoto ◽  
Divane L. Matos ◽  
Josélia O. A. Firmo ◽  
Elizabeth Uchôa
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Socioeconomically Disadvantaged ◽  
Never Married ◽  
Predictors Of Mortality ◽  
Disadvantaged Population ◽  
Lost To Follow Up ◽  
State Examination ◽  
Cruzi Infection

We used data on 1,399 participants aged 60 and over from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging to examine predictors of mortality in a socioeconomically disadvantaged population. From 1997 to 2007, 599 participants died and 6.2% were lost to follow-up, leading to 12,415 person-years (pyrs) of observation. The death rate was 48.3 per 1,000 pyrs. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.40), male gender (HR = 1.80), never married (HR = 1.78) or a widow (HR = 1.26), poor self-rated health (HR = 1.31), inability to perform four or more activities of daily living (HR = 3.29), number of cardiovascular risk factors (HR = 1.51 for two and HR = 1.91 for three or more), Trypanosoma cruzi infection (HR = 1.27), and number of medications (HR = 1.06) were each significantly (p < 0.05) and independently associated with mortality. The Mini-Mental State Examination score showed a protective effect (HR = 0.96). Except T. cruzi infection, other predictors of mortality were highly consistent with those found in more affluent elderly populations.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Matrajt ◽  
Tiffany Leung
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Old Adults ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Us

AbstractSARS-CoV-2 has infected over 140,000 people as of March 14, 2020. We use a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions lasting six weeks in a middle-sized city in the US. We explore four social distancing strategies by reducing the contacts of adults over 60 years old, adults over 60 years old and children, all adults (25, 75 or 95% compliance), and everyone in the population. Our results suggest that social distancing interventions can avert cases by 20% and hospitalizations and deaths by 90% even with modest compliance within adults as long as the intervention is kept in place, but the epidemic is set to rebound once the intervention is lifted. Our models suggest that social distancing interventions will buy crucial time but need to occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals How effective was Newfoundland & Labrador’s travel ban to prevent the spread of COVID-19? An agent-based analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dionne M. Aleman ◽  
Benjamin Z. Tham ◽  
Sean J. Wagner ◽  
Justin Semelhago ◽  
Asghar Mohammadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Spatial Location ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Uk

AbstractBackgroundTo prevent the spread of COVID-19 in Newfoundland & Labrador (NL), NL implemented a wide travel ban in May 2020. We estimate the effectiveness of this travel ban using a customized agent-based simulation (ABS).MethodsWe built an individual-level ABS to simulate the movements and behaviors of every member of the NL population, including arriving and departing travellers. The model considers individual properties (spatial location, age, comorbidities) and movements between environments, as well as age-based disease transmission with pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic transmission rates. We examine low, medium, and high travel volume, traveller infection rates, and traveller quarantine compliance rates to determine the effect of travellers on COVID spread, and the ability of contact tracing to contain outbreaks.ResultsInfected travellers increased COVID cases by 2-52x (8-96x) times and peak hospitalizations by 2-49x (8-94x), with (without) contact tracing. Although contact tracing was highly effective at reducing spread, it was insufficient to stop outbreaks caused by travellers in even the best-case scenario, and the likelihood of exceeding contact tracing capacity was a concern in most scenarios. Quarantine compliance had only a small impact on COVID spread; travel volume and infection rate drove spread.InterpretationNL’s travel ban was likely a critically important intervention to prevent COVID spread. Even a small number of infected travellers can play a significant role in introducing new chains of transmission, resulting in exponential community spread and significant increases in hospitalizations, while outpacing contact tracing capabilities. With the presence of more transmissible variants, e.g., the UK variant, prevention of imported cases is even more critical.

scholarly journals Strategies to increase downloads of COVID–19 exposure notification apps: A discrete choice experiment

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0258945
Author(s):  
Jemima A. Frimpong ◽  
Stéphane Helleringer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Discrete Choice Experiment ◽  
Discrete Choice ◽  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Pragmatic Trials ◽  
The Us

Exposure notification apps have been developed to assist in notifying individuals of recent exposures to SARS-CoV-2. However, in several countries, such apps have had limited uptake. We assessed whether strategies to increase downloads of exposure notification apps should emphasize improving the accuracy of the apps in recording contacts and exposures, strengthening privacy protections and/or offering financial incentives to potential users. In a discrete choice experiment with potential app users in the US, financial incentives were more than twice as important in decision-making about app downloads, than privacy protections, and app accuracy. The probability that a potential user would download an exposure notification app increased by 40% when offered a $100 reward to download (relative to a reference scenario in which the app is free). Financial incentives might help exposure notification apps reach uptake levels that improve the effectiveness of contact tracing programs and ultimately enhance efforts to control SARS-CoV-2. Rapid, pragmatic trials of financial incentives for app downloads in real-life settings are warranted.

scholarly journals Combating Corruption in the Countries of Anglo-Saxon Tradition (Using Examples of Great Britain, India, Singapore and the USA)

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 470-502
Author(s):  
Alexander P Strakhov
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Behavior Patterns ◽  
Anglo Saxon ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Cultural Component ◽  
Corrupt Behavior ◽  
Behavioral Attitudes

The article examines the experience of combating corruption in Great Britain, India, Singapore and the US. Despite all the differences, these countries have a common trait that was formed in the course of their historical development: they all share certain elements of the Anglo-Saxon tradition in the cultural, political and legal spheres. The purpose of the research is to examine the influence of these elements on anti-corruption policies. The analysis has revealed that the countries under review apply similar approaches, institutional mechanisms and ideologies to counter and eliminate corrupt behavior, which can be attributed to the shared factor of the Anglo-Saxon tradition. At the same time, the effectiveness of the measures used to eradicate corruption largely depends on economic conditions, behavioral attitudes, behavior patterns that are historically rooted in society, etc. In this context, the cultural component is of particular importance. The aforementioned countries’ analogous anti-corruption practices and tools can substantially vary under the influence of historically established national and cultural characteristics, significantly deviating from their original British roots. In addition, success in the fight against corruption directly depends on whether certain public institutions, whose cultural and behavioral nature dictates them to resist the introduction of new anti-corruption measures, remain present.

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