Variability of Climate-Induced Rice Yields in Northwest Bangladesh Using Multiple Statistical Modeling

Abstract Because of evident climatic variations and significant contribution to national food production, Bangladesh is a climate extreme hotspot region of examination for climatic consequences for rice (Oryza Sativa) crop production. This study intends to explore the variability of climatic variables (e.g., variations in mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and sunshine duration) with rice yields (e.g., Aus, Aman, and Boro rice varieties) in northwest Bangladesh. The modified Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen slope estimator, and multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling were used to estimate the association among these factors. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation constant standard error (HAC) and feasible generalized least square (FGLS) technique were adopted to measure the climate-rice crop nexus using the regional level dataset for 1976–2015. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal variation of rice yield trends with climatic variables was mapped and assessed by the coefficient of variation. The results show that observed temperature and humidity trends were beneficial for Aus and Aman yields but not Boro yields. In contrast, observed rainfall and sunshine trends were negative for all three rice seasons. The outcomes of the MLR model explained 67%, 92%, and 83% of the variability in Aus, Aman, and Boro rice yields in the study region. The model outcomes showed that humidity and rainfall have negatively affected Aus and Aman rice crops, while temperature and rainfall positively influence Boro rice yield. Regarding the climate change issues and safeguarding food safety at the regional level, the concerned authorities should provide substantial attention to improving heat and drought-tolerance high-yielding varieties against climate effects on Aus and Aman rice varieties.

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ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AMAN AND BORO RICE YIELDS IN BANGLADESH

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007816500081 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 07 (03) ◽

pp. 1650008 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

M. MEHEDI HASAN ◽

Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER ◽

JEFF GOW

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Series Data ◽

Rice Varieties ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Climatic Regions ◽

Rice Yields ◽

Boro Rice

Despite substantial volumes of research on the impacts of climate change on rice productivity little attention has been paid in evaluating how these impacts differ between traditional varieties (TVs) and high yielding varieties (HYVs). In this study, Aman and Boro rice yields are examined, as respective examples. Cross-sectional time series data over 41 years for four climatic regions of Bangladesh has been used to explore this issue. Each region was examined individually and then across region comparisons were made to try to understand the impacts of major climate variables: average temperature, temperature range, and seasonal rainfall. Using both linear regression and panel data regression models, the major findings are that HYVs for both Aman and Boro rice varieties have less capacity to cope with changing climate conditions in contrast to TVs. Therefore, government should help to promote research and development aimed at developing more climate tolerant varieties, particularly temperature tolerant HYVs which have the potential to solidify the country’s food security situation at least in terms of food availability.

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Identifying Climatic Variables with Rice Yield Relationship and Land Cover Change Detection at Sylhet Region

Asian Journal of Geographical Research ◽

10.9734/ajgr/2019/v2i330088 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Gazi Tamiz Uddin ◽

Md. Altaf Hossain ◽

Fahmida Ishaque

Keyword(s):

Relative Humidity ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Flash Flood ◽

Climatic Variables ◽

Landsat 8 ◽

Yield Data ◽

Vegetation Condition ◽

Boro Rice

The study is conducted to determine the correlation between climatic parameters and rice yield. The present study is also undertaken to analyze the land cover change in Sylhet district between 2013 and 2018 using LANDSAT-8 images. Local climate and rice yield data are collected from BMD (Bangladesh Meteorological Department) and BRRI (Bangladesh Rice Research Institute) and BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). ArcGIS 10.5 and SPSS software are used to show the vegetation condition and correlation coefficient between rice yield and climatic variables respectively. It is revealed from the result that rainfall is negatively correlated with Aman and Boro (local and HYV) rice whereas temperature and relative humidity showed a positive correlation with local Aman and Boro rice. On the other hand, relative humidity showed a strong linear relationship with HYV Boro rice. Finally, both temperature and relative humidity have substantial effects on yields in the Boro rice. Furthermore, vegetation condition is observed through NDVI and found the moderate-high vegetation in 2013. After that NDVI value is fluctuating which evidently signifies the rapid vegetation cover change due to a flash flood, flood and other climate changing aspects. Additionally, Forested and high land vegetation’s are endangered rapidly. Some adaptation strategies should be followed to minimize the effects of natural calamities for improving better vegetation condition.

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Evaluation of Different Nutrient Management Practices in Yield of Different Rice Cultivars in Lamjung District of Nepal

International Journal of Applied Sciences and Biotechnology ◽

10.3126/ijasbt.v4i2.15127 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 223-227

Author(s):

S. Ranabhat ◽

L.P. Amgain

Keyword(s):

Grain Yield ◽

Management Practices ◽

Nutrient Management ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Block Design ◽

Rice Cultivars ◽

Rice Varieties ◽

Fertilizer Recommendations ◽

Rice Yields ◽

Biological Yield

A field experiment was conducted on farmer’s field at two sites of Lamjung district of Nepal viz. Bhotewodar and Sundarbazaar to evaluate the performance of two commonly grown rice varieties viz US-382(hybrid) and Ramdhan (improved) under two nutrient management practices [Nutrient Expert®(NE) rice model recommendation, and government recommendation(GR)].Four replicates of four treatments were arranged in randomized completely block design. Rice varieties responded differently under the different nutrient management practices in terms of plant height, grains per panicle, sterility%, panicle weight, grain yield at 15% moisture, straw yield and harvesting index. The highest grain yield was obtained from NE field of US-382 variety which was followed by GR for US-382, NE for Ramdhan and GR for Ramdhan variety. NE based practices for US-382 variety produced higher biological yield as compared to GR. NE estimated attainable rice yield provided by the software compared with actual rice yield from the trials in farmer’s field and NE-based fertilizer recommendations proved the validity in reaching the yield targets estimated by the software. The observed rice yields recorded in the trials were higher than the NE estimated attainable yields, so NE recommendation for US-382 variety was found better over GR.Int J Appl Sci Biotechnol, Vol 4(2): 223-227

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Impact of seasonal climatic variability on rice yield in Bangladesh

Journal of Agrometeorology ◽

10.54386/jam.v22i2.157 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 165-171

Author(s):

JAIONTO KARMOKAR ◽

M. AMINUL ISLAM ◽

M. RAKIB HASSAN ◽

M.M. BILLAH

Keyword(s):

Rice Yield ◽

Climatic Variability ◽

Vital Role ◽

Least Square ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Average Maximum ◽

The Impact ◽

Boro Rice

In Bangladesh, 75% of the total cultivable area is under rice cultivation producing 25 million tons of rice and plays a vital role in the country’s GDP. The climatic variability is playing an important role in affecting the rice production. In this study, the impact of climatic variability (average maximum temperature (aMaxTemp), average minimum temperature (aMinTemp) and average rainfall (aRainfall)) on rice yield was determined in two different regions (northern and southern) of Bangladesh.The variability of rice yield and climate factors was determined by using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The data was analyzed over the 44-years period (1971 to 2014) in order to estimate the magnitude of these fluctuations statistically and graphically. We observed that the climate variables had significant effect on rice yield that varies among three rice crops (e.g., Aus, Aman, and Boro rice). We observed that, aMaxTemp has positive effects for Aus and Aman rice yield but negative effect on Boro rice yield. On the other hand, aMinTemp has negative effects on Aus and Aman rice yield but has positive effect on Boro rice yield. The aRainfall has a positive relationship with all rice yields in both the regions.

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Impacts of Climate and Phenology on the Yields of Early Mature Rice in China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su122310133 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (23) ◽

pp. 10133

Author(s):

Yahui Guo ◽

Wenxiang Wu ◽

Yumei Liu ◽

Zhaofei Wu ◽

Xiaojun Geng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Partial Correlation ◽

Oryza Sativa L ◽

Sunshine Duration ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Climatic Variables ◽

Yield Response ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Relative Importance ◽

Rice Yields

Phenological variables are closely correlated with rice (Oryza sativa L.) yields as they play important roles in influencing and controlling the carbon allocations between plant organs, but their impacts on rice yields and their relative importance compared with climatic variables are not yet well investigated. In this study, the impacts and the relative importance of climatic and phenological variables on the yields of early mature rice were assessed using the trial data from 75 agricultural stations across China, spanning from 1981–2010. We found that both daily maximum (Tmax) and daily minimum (Tmin) temperatures during the growing season (from transplanting to maturity) increased significantly, while sunshine duration (SD) and precipitation (Prep) did not change significantly. The average transplanting date was advanced by 3.18 days/decade, and the heading (maturity) dates were delayed by 2.47 (4.55) days/decade, with yields significantly increased by 9.65 g/m3 per decade across all sites. Partial correlation coefficients between most phenological variables and rice yields were negative, whereas most of the climatic variables were positively correlated with rice yields. The average of partial correlation coefficients between transplanting, heading, and maturity dates and rice yields were −0.10, −0.15, and −0.01, respectively, and the average of coefficients between Tmax, Tmin, SD, and Prep and rice yields were 0.08, 0.02, 0.12, and −0.05, respectively. Interestingly enough, phenological variables were the dominating influencing factors on rice yields at 63% of the sites, suggesting that the relative importance of phenology to rice yields may be even higher than that of climate. The climatic variables were closely correlated with rice yields as they are fundamental growth materials for crops, and phenological variables strongly influenced the growth and development of rice. Our results highlight that phenology should be precisely evaluated in crop models to improve the accuracy of simulating their response to climate change. Furthermore, due to limited understanding of phenological processes, manipulative experiments are urgently needed to comprehensively improve our understanding of rice phenology and rice yield response to ongoing climate change.

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The use of superior varieties to increase rice yields in lowland irrigated of Southeast Sulawesi

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202130601045 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 306 ◽

pp. 01045

Author(s):

Muhammad Alwi Mustaha ◽

Cipto Nugroho ◽

Samrin ◽

Dian Rahmawati

Keyword(s):

Rice Yield ◽

Growth Yield ◽

Rice Production ◽

Growth And Yield ◽

Disease Dynamics ◽

Rice Varieties ◽

Rice Yields ◽

High Yielding Varieties ◽

Planting Season ◽

Experimental Garden

In order to increase national rice production, the Ministry of Agriculture has released some high yielding varieties. The research was aimed to obtain superior rice varieties adapted to irrigated lowland agro-ecosystems of Southeast Sulawesi. In the first planting season, research was carried out in Olo-oloho Village, Uepai sub district and the second season at the Wawotobi Experimental Garden. Eight varieties were tested, i.e. Inpari 31, Inpari 34, Inpari 35, Inpari 38, Inpari 39, Inpari 41, Inpari 42, Inpari 43 and Mekongga. The variables observed were growth, yield and pest and disease dynamics. The results shows that there was variation growth and yield of the tested varieties. The growth and yield also varied depend on the season. In the first planting season, Inpari 34 and Inpari 43 showed better growth than others, but Inpari 31 resulted the highest rice yield (4.83 t/ha). In the second planting season, only Inpari 34 showed consistent growth, but the variety that had showed the highest yield was Inpari 43 (8.13 t/ha).

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Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Production: Evidence from Nepal

Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development ◽

10.37801/ajad2020.17.2.4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (2) ◽

pp. 63-78

Author(s):

Niranjan Devkota ◽

◽

Nirash Paija ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Series Data ◽

Bounds Testing ◽

Rice Varieties ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Rice Yields

This study assesses the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics between paddy yields and climate variables, particularly maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, using time-series data from 1971 to 2014 in Nepal. Applying Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Regression or ARDL bounds testing approach for analysis of co-integration between the variables, we confirm that there is a long-run relationship among the variables. Furthermore, we employ Granger non-causality tests for robustness. The findings reveal that rainfall has substantial effects on the rice yield. Specifically, a positive and significant relationship exists between rice yields and rainfall and that this relationship is unidirectional. Rainfall impacts on rice yield and holding all things constant, a 1 mm increase in rainfall increases rice yields by 0.65 percent. Given the effects of temperature on rice crops and increasing climate change vulnerabilities, agricultural scientists should focus on research and development of temperature tolerant rice varieties in the production of rice yields.

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Effect of harvest time of paddy on milled rice yield and broken kernels

Agricultural Science and Technology ◽

10.15547/ast.2019.04.055 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 327-331

Author(s):

V. N. Markova Ruzdik Ilieva ◽

N. Markova Ruzdik ◽

D. Vulcheva ◽

Lj. Mihajlov ◽

M. Ilievski

Keyword(s):

Moisture Content ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Rice Variety ◽

Maximum Yield ◽

Harvest Time ◽

Milled Rice ◽

Rice Varieties ◽

Yield And Quality ◽

Rice Yields

Abstract. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal harvest time to achieve maximum milled rice yield and quality of white rice in some newly introduced Italian rice varieties grown under agro-ecological conditions in the region of Kocani town, Republic of North Macedonia. During the 2014 and 2015, fourteen rice varieties were cultivated to estimate the milled rice yield and broken kernels from three different harvest times. From each rice variety, samples with moisture content between 20-22% (I variant), 18-20% (II variant) and 16-18% (III variant) were taken. From the third harvest variant the highest percentage of milled rice yield (65.23%) was obtained but also the highest rate of broken kernels (12.79%). From the remaining two harvests, almost identical milled rice yields were received (64.19% from the first variant and 64.33% from the second variant), but in terms of broken kernels, there were significant differences. The optimum moisture content during the harvest in order to obtain maximum yield and quality of milled rice ranged from 18% to 20%. The varieties Arsenal, Sprint and Mirko had the most favorable values for milled rice yield and broken kernels.

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Extreme High Yield of Tropical Rice Grown Without Fertilizer on Acid Sulfate Soil in South Kalimantan, Indonesia

Journal of Tropical Soils ◽

10.5400/jts.2010.v15i1.33-38 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

pp. 33

Author(s):

Erry Purnomo ◽

Yasuyuki Hashidoko ◽

Toshihiro Hasegawa ◽

Mitsuru Osaki

Keyword(s):

Soil Properties ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Soil Condition ◽

High Yield ◽

Soil Electrical Conductivity ◽

Panicle Length ◽

Acid Sulfate Soil ◽

Rice Varieties ◽

Acid Sulfate ◽

Rice Yields

Extreme High Yield of Tropical Rice Grown Without Fertilizer on Acid Sulfate Soil in South Kalimantan, Indonesia (E Purnomo, Y Hashidoko, T Hasegawa and M Osaki): Local rice arieties are commonly grown by the farmers located in acid sulfate soil area of South Kalimantan. In South Kalimantan, more than 100 local rice varieties can be found. In 1999, a farmer found one hill (with 5 tillers) rice plant near a canal, later called Padi Panjang. The rice had panicle length of 50 cm. The panicle length of common local rice varieties are 25 cm. Since the finding, the farmer multiplied the seed for 3 years to get a reasonable amount of seeds for nearby farmers to use. In 2004, there were 25 farmers grow the Padi Panjang by themselves. Their paddocks are widely spread out in Aluh-Aluh and Gambut districts. We take this opportunity to investigate yield variation of the Padi Panjang that may be affected by soil properties variability. Ten paddocks out of the 25 paddock were selected. At harvest time (in July-August), we measured the rice yield and collected soil sample from the 10 paddocks. We found that the soil condition in the selected paddocks were marginally suitable for growing improved rice. Without fertilizer, however, the rice yield varied from 3.21 to 8.09 Mg ha-1. We also observed that the rice yield variations associated with tillers number. We did not find any correlation between rice yields with some selected soil properties, except it was observed that the tillers number was negatively correlated with soil electrical conductivity (EC). The extreme yield of Padi Panjang might be explained the involvement of N fixing bacteria and P solubilizing bacteria, large rooting system and the ability of Padi Panjang root in modifying the rhizosphere soil.

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