scholarly journals Where Do the World’s Squirrel Hotspots and Coldspots of 230+ Species Go with Climate Change 2100? A First BIG DATA Minimum Estimate from an Open Access Climate Niche Rapid Model Assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moriz Steiner ◽  
Falk Huettmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Species Group ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Climate Niche ◽  
The Future

Abstract Man-made climate change and its impact on the living world remain the problem of our time waiting for a good science-based resolution. Here, we focus on forecasting the global squirrel population as a representative but overlooked species group for the year 2100. This was possible by using 230 publicly available Species Distribution Model prediction maps for the world’s squirrels (233 out of 307; 75%). These distribution forecasts are originating from 132 GIS predictors, implemented with an ensemble of three machine learning algorithms (TreeNet, RandomForest, and Maxent). We found that most of the world’s squirrel ranges will be shifting (usually towards higher altitudes and latitudes) and remain/ become more fragmented; some species extend their range, and many can ‘spill’ into new landscapes. Considering that here we just ran a Rapid Assessment of Big Data, dealing with a climate niche envelope of the future but not the entire more holistic perspective of climate change and 2100, we assume wider serious changes will occur for squirrels, their habitats, and the world in the future Anthropocene of 2100. These changes can lead to more stress, genetic loss, extinction, and increased zoonotic disease transmissions, and this process will occur with an increased gradient over time.

scholarly journals Climate change-induced species distribution modeling in hyper-arid ecosystems

F1000Research ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 978
Author(s):  
Taoufik Saleh Ksiksi ◽  
Remya K. ◽  
Mohamed T. Mousa ◽  
Shima K. Al-Badi ◽  
Salama K. Al Kaabi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Arid Ecosystems ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Background: The impact of climate change on selected plant species from the hyper-arid landscape of United Arab Emirates (UAE) was assessed through modeling of their habitat suitability and distribution. Calotropis procera, Prosopis cineraria and Ziziphus spina-christi were used for this study. The specific objectives of this study were to identify the current and future (for 2050s and 2070s) suitable habitats distribution using MaxEnt, an Ecological Envelope Model. Methods: The adopted method consists of extraction of current and future bioclimatic variables together with their land use cover and elevation for the study area. MaxEnt species distribution model was then used to simulate the distribution of the selected species. The projections are simulated for the current date, the 2050s and 2070s using Community Climate System Model version 4 with representative concentration pathway RCP4.5. Results: The current distribution model of all three species evolved with a high suitable habitat towards the north eastern part of the country. For C. procera, an area of 1775 km2 is modeled under highly suitable habitat for the current year, while it is expected to increase for both 2050s and 2070s. The current high suitability of P. cinararia was around an area of 1335 km2 and the future projection revealed an increase of high suitability habitats. Z. spina-christi showed a potential area of 5083 km2 under high suitability and it might increase in the future. Conclusions: Precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19) had the maximum contribution for all the three species under investigation.

Projections of future habitat use by Atlantic bluefin tuna: mechanistic vs. correlative distribution models

2016 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 698-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara A. Muhling ◽  
Richard Brill ◽  
John T. Lamkin ◽  
Mitchell A. Roffer ◽  
Sang-Ki Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Bluefin Tuna ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Oxygen Balance ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna ◽  
Fishing Fleets

Climate change is likely to drive complex shifts in the distribution and ecology of marine species. Projections of future changes may vary, however, depending on the biological impact model used. In this study, we compared a correlative species distribution model and a simple mechanistic oxygen balance model for Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus: ABFT) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Both models gave similar results for the recent historical time period, and suggested that ABFT generally occupy favourable metabolic habitats. Projections from an earth system model showed largely temperature-induced reductions in ABFT habitat in the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic by 2100. However, the oxygen balance model showed more optimistic results in parts of the subpolar North Atlantic. This was partially due to an inherent ability to extrapolate beyond conditions currently encountered by pelagic longline fishing fleets. Projections included considerable uncertainty due to the simplicity of the biological models, and the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of the analyses. Despite these limitations, our results suggest that climate change is likely to increase metabolic stress on ABFT in sub-tropical habitats, but may improve habitat suitability in subpolar habitats, with implications for spawning and migratory behaviours, and availability to fishing fleets.

scholarly journals Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change: A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Falk ◽  
Nils Hempelmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
The North

Climate is the main environmental driver determining the spatial distribution of most tree species at the continental scale. We investigated the distribution change of European beech and Norway spruce due to climate change. We applied a species distribution model (SDM), driven by an ensemble of 21 regional climate models in order to study the shift of the favourability distribution of these species. SDMs were parameterized for 1971–2000, as well as 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 using the SRES scenario A1B and three physiological meaningful climate variables. Growing degree sum and precipitation sum were calculated for the growing season on a basis of daily data. Results show a general north-eastern and altitudinal shift in climatological favourability for both species, although the shift is more marked for spruce. The gain of new favourable sites in the north or in the Alps is stronger for beech compared to spruce. Uncertainty is expressed as the variance of the averaged maps and with a density function. Uncertainty in species distribution increases over time. This study demonstrates the importance of data ensembles and shows how to deal with different outcomes in order to improve impact studies by showing uncertainty of the resulting maps.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins with species distribution model

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12001
Author(s):  
Jinbo Fu ◽  
Linlin Zhao ◽  
Changdong Liu ◽  
Bin Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Sousa Chinensis ◽  
The Impact

As IUCN critically vulnerable species,the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) have attracted great public attention in recent years. The threats of human disturbance and environmental pollution to this population have been documented extensively. However, research on the sensitivity of this species to climate change is lacking. To understand the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Sousa chinensis, we developed a weighted ensemble model based on 82 occurrence records and six predictor variables (e.g., ocean depth, distance to shore, mean temperature, salinity, ice thickness, and current velocity). According to the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), our ensemble model presented higher prediction precision than most of the single-algorithm models. It also indicated that ocean depth and distance to shore were the most important predictors in shaping the distribution patterns. The projections for the 2050s and 2100s from our ensemble model indicated a severe adverse impact of climate change on the Sousa chinensis habitat. Over 75% and 80% of the suitable habitat in the present day will be lost in all representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCPS) in the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. With the increased numbers of records of stranding and deaths of Sousa chinensis in recent years, strict management regulations and conservation plans are urgent to safeguard the current suitable habitats. Due to habitat contraction and poleward shift in the future, adaptive management strategies, including designing new reserves and adjusting the location and range of reserves according to the geographical distribution of Sousa chinensis, should be formulated to minimize the impacts of climate change on this species.

scholarly journals ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF PIONEER SPECIES FOR SECONDARY FOREST RESTORATION IN BENIN IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

2017 ◽  
Vol 332 ◽  
pp. 43-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Jaures Gbètoho ◽  
Augustin K. N. Aoudji ◽  
Lizanne Roxburgh ◽  
Jean C. Ganglo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Secondary Forest ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Secondary Forests

In this study, species distribution model- ling (SDM) was applied to the manage- ment of secondary forests in Benin. This study aims at identifying suitable areas where the use of candidate pioneer spe- cies, such as Lonchocarpus sericeus and Anogeissus leiocarpa, could be targeted to ensure at low cost, currently and  in  the context of global climate change, fast reconstitution of secondary forests and disturbed ecosystems and the recovery  of their biodiversity. Using occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Infor- mation Facility (GBIF) website and cur- rent environmental data, the factors that affected the distribution of the species were assessed in West Africa. The models developed in MaxEnt and  R  software  for West Africa only, for both species, showed good predictive power with  AUC > 0.80 and AUC ratios well above 1.5. The results were projected in future climate at the horizon 2055, using AfriClim data under rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 and suggested a little reduction in the range of L. seri- ceus and any variation for A. leiocarpa. The potential distribution of the two spe- cies indicated that they could be used for vegetation restoration activities both now and in the mid-21st century. Improve- ment are needed through the use of com- plementary data, the extension to others species and the assessment of uncertain- ties related to these predictions.

scholarly journals Projecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shao-Ji Hu ◽  
Dong-Hui Xing ◽  
Zhi-Xian Gong ◽  
Jin-Ming Hu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Fragmentation ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Food Plants ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Northwestern Yunnan ◽  
Northeastern Yunnan

Abstract Bhutanitis thaidina is an endemic, rare, and protected swallowtail in China. Deforestation, habitat fragmentation, illegal commercialised capture, and exploitation of larval food plants are believed to be the four major causes of population decline of B. thaidina in the recent decade. However, little attention was paid to the impact of climate change. This study used ecological niche factor analysis and species distribution model to analyse the current suitable areas for B. thaidina with BioClim variables as well as its future suitable areas under four future climate scenarios (represented by four Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Statistical analysis was carried out to compare the possible area and altitude changes to the distribution of B. thaidina under changing climate. Our analyses showed that the suitable areas for B. thaidina are fragmented under the current climate, with four suitable centres in northwestern Yunnan, northeastern Yunnan and northwestern Guizhou, the western margin of Sichuan Basin, and Qinling mountains. Apart from further habitat fragmentation under climate change, slight range expansion (average 6.0–8.9%) was detected under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, while more range contraction (average 1.3–26.9%) was detected under the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the two southern suitable centres suffering most. Also, a tendency of contraction (2,500–3,500 m) and upslope shift (~600 m) in suitable altitude range were detected. The findings of this study supported the climate-vulnerable hypothesis of B. thaidina, especially under future climate like the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, in terms of contraction in suitable areas and altitude ranges. Conservation priority should be given to northwestern Yunnan, northeastern Yunnan, and northwestern Guizhou to alleviate the stress of massive habitat loss and extinction. Refugial areas should be established in all four suitable centres to maintain genetic diversity of B. thaidina in China.

Shifting tourism flows in a changing climate: policy implications for the Caribbean

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwame Emmanuel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Tourism Flows

Purpose – Population growth, climate change, shortages of oil and other resources will have dramatic implication on where, when and how tourists travel in the future. This will also reshape the tourism industry for the future. Knowing what will happen in the future has always fascinated mankind from time immemorial. However, forecasting and predictions require not only a systematic approach to development but also an imagination and the ability to think and see beyond the ordinary. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to underscore the projected northward shift in tourism demand due to the global impacts of climate change and the lack of policy attention. Design/methodology/approach – A rapid assessment of the literature was conducted to explore tourism flows to the Caribbean in a changing climate and recommendations for adaptation. Findings – Tourism demand from major markets such as Europe and North America may be reduced significantly as tourists travel to other destinations, which are closer to home and have a more favourable climate. Regulation of carbon emissions from long haul flights will also influence demand substitution. Despite this projection, current policies in the Caribbean promote further development of the climate sensitive 3S model without anticipating a possible decrease in demand in the future. Research limitations/implications – Research implications include a recalibration of tourism policy and diversification of Caribbean tourism and economies. Originality/value – Recommendations are outlined for a critical issue that is not on the policy agenda.

scholarly journals Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 68
Author(s):  
Mary Ann Cunningham ◽  
Nicholas S. Wright ◽  
Penelope B. Mort Ranta ◽  
Hannah K. Benton ◽  
Hassan G. Ragy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Influential Factor ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Limiting Factor

Climate models project vulnerability to global warming in low-income regions, with important implications for sustainable development. While food crops are the priority, smallholder cash crops support food security, education, and other priorities. Despite its importance as a populous region subject to substantial climate change, West Africa has received relatively slight attention in spatial assessments of climate impacts. In this region, rainfed cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) provides essential smallholder income. We used a spatially explicit species distribution model to project likely changes in the spatial distribution of suitable climates for rainfed cotton in West Africa. We modeled suitable climate conditions from the recent past (1970–2000) and projected the range of those conditions in 2050 (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). The suitable area declined by 60 percent under RCP4.5 and by 80 percent under RCP8.5. Of 15 countries in the study area, all but two declined to less than ten percent suitable under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation was the most influential factor in explaining baseline cotton distribution, but 2050 temperatures appear to become the limiting factor, rising beyond the range in which rainfed cotton has historically been grown. Adaptation to these changes and progress on sustainable development goals will depend on responses at multiple scales of governance, including global support and cooperation.

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