The Secular Decline in Long-Term Yields around FOMC Meetings

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Hillenbrand
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Raúl Serrano ◽  
Vicente Pinilla

AbstractThis study aims to answer whether empirical records confirm the existence of a secular decline in the terms of trade affecting primary producers (the Singer–Prebisch hypothesis). The paper analyses the evolution of the terms of trade for agricultural and food products in the second half of the 20thcentury. We obtain sixty new real price indices for internationally traded agricultural products. We conclude, from a long-term perspective, that the deterioration in the terms of trade for agricultural and food products was strong and clear in the second half of the last century. In general, less processed products suffered a very heavy fall in their real prices. However, there was no continuous and persistent deterioration in the terms of trade either as a whole or for the great majority of the agricultural and food product groups (with the exception of natural rubber, textile fibres and other raw materials). Rather, this deterioration occurred in stages.


1995 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 551-563 ◽  
Author(s):  
June Burnham ◽  
G. W. Jones ◽  
Robert Elgie

A recent article in thisJournal(Patrick Dunleavy and G. W. Jones with others, ‘Leaders, Politics and Institutional Change: The Decline of Prime Ministerial Accountability to the House of Commons, 1868–1990’, 23 (1993), 267–98) demonstrated a clear secular decline in prime ministers' accountability to Parliament. It examined the frequency with which prime ministers from W. E. Gladstone to Margaret Thatcher accounted directly to MPs by answering oral questions and making statements, major speeches and minor interventions in debates. The decline in each of these activities had followed a different pattern. There was a steep fall in prime ministers' participation inoral questionsuntil the late 1950s, but after parliament and Harold Macmillan had agreed that prime ministers would answer questions for 15 minutes on Tuesdays and Thursdays, the fall seemed to have been arrested. The evidence from John Major's premiership, which is presented below, shows that, even within this apparently rigid timetable, there has been further decline. The making ofstatements, after a period of near absence, had revived in the 1940s, but declined noticeably again in the 1980s. Dunleavy and Jones concluded that increases in the number of prime-ministerial statements were associated with international and domestic crises, summits and the relaxation of procedural rules. Evidence from Major's performance reinforces these findings. The long-term trend towards fewer substantialspeecheswas found to have accelerated in the 1980s, a development which was mirrored in a fall in the number ofdebating interventionsduring the Thatcher years. The evidence on these two activities, presented below, indicates a partial return under Major to pre-Thatcher norms – though this revival may be only a temporary phenomenon.


Author(s):  
Carolien van Ham ◽  
Jacques Thomassen

This chapter comprises an empirical evaluation of trends in political support within established democracies, to evaluate whether there is indeed a trend toward declining political support in established democracies. Using a variety of comparative data sets, i.e. the World Values Surveys, European Values Surveys, the European Election Studies, and the Eurobarometer surveys, this chapter reevaluates the empirical evidence for declining legitimacy, comparing trends in political support in sixteen established democracies from the mid-1970s to 2015. No consistent evidence is found for declining political support after the mid-1970s. Rather than a clear-cut long-term decline in political support that is apparent across established democracies, there is large variation between countries both in levels and trends of support. These findings call for a critical reappraisal of existing theories of legitimacy decline: how valid are such theories if the predicted outcome, i.e. secular decline of political support, does not occur?


2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
John P. A. Ioannidis

AbstractNeurobiology-based interventions for mental diseases and searches for useful biomarkers of treatment response have largely failed. Clinical trials should assess interventions related to environmental and social stressors, with long-term follow-up; social rather than biological endpoints; personalized outcomes; and suitable cluster, adaptive, and n-of-1 designs. Labor, education, financial, and other social/political decisions should be evaluated for their impacts on mental disease.


2016 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary C. Potter

AbstractRapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of words or pictured scenes provides evidence for a large-capacity conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) that momentarily provides rich associated material from long-term memory, permitting rapid chunking (Potter 1993; 2009; 2012). In perception of scenes as well as language comprehension, we make use of knowledge that briefly exceeds the supposed limits of working memory.


1999 ◽  
Vol 173 ◽  
pp. 189-192
Author(s):  
J. Tichá ◽  
M. Tichý ◽  
Z. Moravec

AbstractA long-term photographic search programme for minor planets was begun at the Kleť Observatory at the end of seventies using a 0.63-m Maksutov telescope, but with insufficient respect for long-arc follow-up astrometry. More than two thousand provisional designations were given to new Kleť discoveries. Since 1993 targeted follow-up astrometry of Kleť candidates has been performed with a 0.57-m reflector equipped with a CCD camera, and reliable orbits for many previous Kleť discoveries have been determined. The photographic programme results in more than 350 numbered minor planets credited to Kleť, one of the world's most prolific discovery sites. Nearly 50 per cent of them were numbered as a consequence of CCD follow-up observations since 1994.This brief summary describes the results of this Kleť photographic minor planet survey between 1977 and 1996. The majority of the Kleť photographic discoveries are main belt asteroids, but two Amor type asteroids and one Trojan have been found.


1994 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 29-33
Author(s):  
P. Ambrož

AbstractThe large-scale coronal structures observed during the sporadically visible solar eclipses were compared with the numerically extrapolated field-line structures of coronal magnetic field. A characteristic relationship between the observed structures of coronal plasma and the magnetic field line configurations was determined. The long-term evolution of large scale coronal structures inferred from photospheric magnetic observations in the course of 11- and 22-year solar cycles is described.Some known parameters, such as the source surface radius, or coronal rotation rate are discussed and actually interpreted. A relation between the large-scale photospheric magnetic field evolution and the coronal structure rearrangement is demonstrated.


2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 201-204
Author(s):  
Vojtech Rušin ◽  
Milan Minarovjech ◽  
Milan Rybanský

AbstractLong-term cyclic variations in the distribution of prominences and intensities of green (530.3 nm) and red (637.4 nm) coronal emission lines over solar cycles 18–23 are presented. Polar prominence branches will reach the poles at different epochs in cycle 23: the north branch at the beginning in 2002 and the south branch a year later (2003), respectively. The local maxima of intensities in the green line show both poleward- and equatorward-migrating branches. The poleward branches will reach the poles around cycle maxima like prominences, while the equatorward branches show a duration of 18 years and will end in cycle minima (2007). The red corona shows mostly equatorward branches. The possibility that these branches begin to develop at high latitudes in the preceding cycles cannot be excluded.


Author(s):  
T. M. Seed ◽  
M. H. Sanderson ◽  
D. L. Gutzeit ◽  
T. E. Fritz ◽  
D. V. Tolle ◽  
...  

The developing mammalian fetus is thought to be highly sensitive to ionizing radiation. However, dose, dose-rate relationships are not well established, especially the long term effects of protracted, low-dose exposure. A previous report (1) has indicated that bred beagle bitches exposed to daily doses of 5 to 35 R 60Co gamma rays throughout gestation can produce viable, seemingly normal offspring. Puppies irradiated in utero are distinguishable from controls only by their smaller size, dental abnormalities, and, in adulthood, by their inability to bear young.We report here our preliminary microscopic evaluation of ovarian pathology in young pups continuously irradiated throughout gestation at daily (22 h/day) dose rates of either 0.4, 1.0, 2.5, or 5.0 R/day of gamma rays from an attenuated 60Co source. Pups from non-irradiated bitches served as controls. Experimental animals were evaluated clinically and hematologically (control + 5.0 R/day pups) at regular intervals.


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