scholarly journals Assessment of the Ukrainian economy in 2000–2015 based on the macroeconomic stabilization pentagon (MSP) model

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Oleksii Lyulyov
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
Macroeconomic Stabilization ◽  
State Budget ◽  
General Internal ◽  
Internal And External Stability ◽  
Data Extrapolation

The main task of the article is to assess the development process of the macroeconomic stabilization in Ukraine during 1997–2016. The work shows the results of author’s own research, carried out using the method of tools given by director of Finance Institute in Warsaw, Professor of Economics Kolodko. This method is based on the assessment of five key macroeconomic indices: GDP rate growth, unemployment rate, inflation rate, state budget balance to GDP, balance of current turnovers to GDP. The results of calculations show that macroeconomic stability level, which is higher than 0.5 was demonstrated by the country only during 1999–2007, and during this period general internal and external stability is kept. Based on the macroeconomic predictions of GDP rate growth, unemployment rate, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and on the data extrapolation of consumer price index, state budget balance, current account balance, Ukraine’s MSP profile for 2018–2020 was constructed.

scholarly journals SCIENTIFIC AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO ESTIMATING BUDGET IMBALANCES

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (40) ◽  
pp. 99-109
Author(s):  
О. Rozhko ◽  
Yu. Safonov ◽  
L. Yemelianenko ◽  
Ie. Bazhenkov ◽  
Ye. Brydun
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
The State ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Cauchy Inequality ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Deficit Financing ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The article focuses on the ambiguity of the economists’ scientific position to the state budget imbalancing. The understanding of the balanced state budget in terms of revenues and expenditures in accordance with the concept of «healthy finances» is substantiated. The shortcomings of the concept of «healthy finances» are revealed, in particular, the fact that the annual balancing of budget revenues and expenditures excludes or significantly reduces the possibility of countercyclical, stabilizing influence of the state fiscal policy. Attention is paid to the peculiarities of the concept of chronic budget deficit and the specifics of deficit financing of public expenditures within the concept of countercyclical regulation. At the same time, it is proved that budget’s balancing is a secondary problem according to the concept of functional finance. It has been found that budget deficits can have both positive and negative socio-economic effects, depending on the circumstances in which they are formed. The types of state budget deficit are identified and characterized, namely: nominal, real, operating, primary, actual, hidden, quasi-fiscal, aggregative, active, passive, perceived, structural, cyclic deficits. It is proved that the main task of the state is to balance it in order to balance revenues and expenditures of the state. The article considers the approach to estimating budget imbalance using Cauchy inequality and an algorithm for estimating budget imbalance is formed. It is proved that ensuring budget balance is possible in the following areas: improving the quality of planning of key budget indicators; expansion of the income base; budget expenditure optimization / sequestration; targeted financing; improving the efficiency of state property management, budget control; introduction of result-oriented budgeting and audit of the efficiency of the use of budget funds; improvement of intergovernmental relations; public debt management. The article develops a scientific and methodological approach to imbalances estimating, in particular the Consolidated Budget in terms of substantiating the limit value of the imbalance measure based on the application of Cauchy inequality, as well as determining the impact of dynamic changes in budget imbalance based on the method of chain substitutions. The advantages of this scientific and methodological approach are the ability to compare estimates of budget imbalances, which differ significantly in the amount of financial resources redistributed through the budget, because such estimates are relative, which eliminates the effect of budget scale. Keywords: budget system, budget, budget deficit, deficit financing, budget balance, imbalance assessment, countercyclical regulation of the economy. JEL Classіfіcatіon G18, H6 Formulas: 3; fig.: 1; tabl.: 1; bibl.: 10.

Using distributed lag models to predict regional budget revenues

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1154-1172
Author(s):  
Yu.V. Granitsa
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Key Indicator ◽  
Distributed Lag Models ◽  
Regional Budget ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Financial Result

Subject. The article addresses projections of regional budget revenues, using distributed lag models. Objectives. The purpose is to review economic and statistical tools that are suitable for the analysis of relationship between the revenues of the regional budget system and regional macroeconomic predictors. Methods. The study draws on statistical, constructive, economic and mathematical methods of analysis. Results. In models with quantitative variables obtained under the Almon method, the significant predictors in the forecasting of regional budget revenues are determined mainly by the balanced financial result, the consumer price index, which characterizes inflation processes in the region, and the unemployment rate being the key indicator of the labor market. Models with quantitative variables obtained through the Koyck transformation are characterized by a wider range of predictors, the composition of which is determined by the peculiarities of economic situation in regions. The two-year forecast provides the average lag obtained during the evaluation of the models. The exception is the impact of unemployment rate, which is characterized as long-term. Conclusions. To generate forecasts of budget parameters, the results of both the Koyck method and the Almon method should be considered, though the former is more promising.

scholarly journals Investment support for effective development of agro-industrial enterprises of Lviv region

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (96) ◽  
pp. 28-34
Author(s):  
R. Myniv ◽  
H. Mokrytska
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
The State ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Agricultural Enterprises ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Regional Budget

Investing in agro-industrial enterprises ensures the competitiveness of agro-industrial formations through the use of innovations to improve their positions in both domestic and foreign markets; achieving economic and food security; improving the social infrastructure of the village translator. Investment activity is a determining factor in the effectiveness of the formation and use of investment potential of agricultural enterprises. The analysis of statistical data on the volume of investments in agricultural enterprises of Lviv region at the expense of district budgets in 2019–2020 indicates an increase in investment resources invested in Horodok, Zolochiv and Stryj districts. However, the total approved amount of investments in the region in 2020 (1913.0 thousand UAH) decreased by 2.3 times compared to the funded volume in 2019 (4394.9 thousand UAH), which indicates the unstable rate of investment activity of investments in agro-industrial enterprises in terms of districts of Lviv region. During 2016–2020, there is a positive trend to increase the share of investments in the agro-industrial complex of Lviv region from the budgets of all levels, which, given the leading role of the national agricultural sector, is quite natural. This figure will reach its maximum value in 2020, which is 15.3 more than in 2016, at the expense of the state budget and 1.6 times more – at the expense of the regional budget. During 2019 (52 enterprises) 2.5 times compared to 2016 (22 enterprises) increased the number of agricultural enterprises in Lviv region, which used the program of interest compensation on loans in the amount of 68.4 million UAH. at the expense of the regional budget, which is 3.1 times more than in 2016 (UAH 22.0 million). The program of compensation of interest on loans from the state budget in 2019 was used by 41 enterprises of the agro-industrial complex of Lviv region, which is 3.2 shirts more than in 2016. However, funding decreased from UAH 334.1 million. in 2016 to UAH 173.8 million. in 2019. In 2019, UAH 11.5 million was financed for the implementation of business plans at the expense of soft loans of Lviv region. at the expense of the state budget and UAH 6.8 million. at the expense of the local budget. This allowed 34 businesses to purchase 14 units of agricultural machinery, plant 18.7 hectares of orchards and berries, purchase 24 heads of breeding animals, 21 formations to modernize technological processes and create an additional 30 jobs. Investments are an important guarantee of effective economic development of any enterprise, region, country. At the present stage, the main task is to take all possible measures to create an attractive investment climate and intensify investment processes at both the regional and national levels.

scholarly journals State debt management in the context of Ukraine's economic development

2020 ◽  
pp. 21-25
Author(s):  
Artem HUSIEV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Main Task ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Debt Policy

The paper explores the theoretical and methodological basis of the concept of public debt management. The relationship between the problem of public debt and economic development of the country has been revealed. The dynamics of Ukraine's public debt for the period 2010-2019 have been analyzed. The default as a means of state debt policy has been investigated and its main economic consequences are presented. The international experience of managing public debt on the example of Argentina has been analyzed. The economic essence of technical default has been defined and the concept of technical default as a priority direction of Ukraine's state debt policy in the current conditions has been proposed. Public debt is a set of State commitments to internal and external creditors. State debt Management provides for state creation of the concept of debt policy. In economic terms, the main task of debt management is to maintain the level of public debt on a moderate level. In Ukraine, the problem of state indebtedness is particularly relevant after 2014. However, the most acute this problem was at the beginning of 2020 with the beginning of the recession economy and raising the deficit of the State budget. There are three main strategies to address public debt: investing in the country's economic development and timely repayment of liabilities, default and technical default. The strategy of investing in the country's economic development envisages emission of money or additional involvement in order to stimulate economic development, as well as timely payment of debts and interests. This strategy is appropriate in terms of relatively small amounts of public debt. Defaulted involves declaring the state insolvency payment obligations to creditors. Defaulted in the short run means a rapid deterioration in the economic situation in the country, but under certain conditions, there may be positive consequences in the long run. The technical default means the state's inability to pay debts on a certain date if there is a possibility of their payment in the future. In Ukraine today, the optimal decision of the state debt policy is the proclamation of technical default to restructure debts and prevent aggravation of socio-economic crisis in the country.

scholarly journals REFORMATTING UKRAINIAN BUDGET SYSTEM WITHIN THE CONDITIONS OF POWER DECENTRALIZATION

World Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1(53)) ◽  
pp. 4-10
Author(s):  
Inna Hnydiuk
Keyword(s):  
Local Authority ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Major Powers ◽  
Financial Framework ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Framework Development ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Budget System

The article provides a renovated structure of the state budget system, including location and role of the budgets of joint territorial communities. Besides, current research analyzes the impact of Tax and Budget transformations on the financial framework development of the bodies of local self-authorities, implemented in the beginning of 2015. Special attention has been paid by the authors of the article to the budget balance. Major powers and functions of the bodies of local authority have been studied, according to the European Charter of Local Authority.

scholarly journals Występowanie deficytów bliźniaczych w wybranych państwach Unii Europejskiej i w Polsce w latach 2009–2018

2021 ◽  
pp. 157-178
Author(s):  
Izabela , Piotr Cirin Zawiślińska ◽  
Piotr Cirin
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Twin Deficits ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Internal Balance ◽  
The Current Account

The aim of the article is to determine the degree, direction and strength of impact of the studied variables, i.e. the state budget balance and the current account balance as part of Poland's balance of payments in the years 2009-2018 against the background of selected European Union (EU) countries. The main research questions focus on determining the type of relationships connecting the studied deficits in the light of previous studies dedicated to the twin deficits hypothesis. The methodology used is based on integrated correlation analysis, linear regression and an analysis of the coefficient of variation. As a result of the study, a strong correlation was found between the cumulative values of the studied deficits, which confirms the existence of the twin deficits hypothesis in Poland in the examined period and means that the budget deficit affects the current account balance. A change in the cumulative balance of the budget by 1% leads to a change in the cumulative balance of the current account of the balance of payments by 0.89%. It can be presumed that the problem of budget deficits and the related debt crisis as well as balance of payments balances under the dichotomy of "surplus north" and "deficit south" in the next decade will be one of the most conflicting and disintegrative for the EU. Thus, the search for a path to budget (internal) balance and balance of payments (external) is one of the key challenges for maintaining cohesion and maintaining sustainable development both in Poland and the entire EU.

The financial and economic substance of the contemporary Russian capitalism

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 2230-2251
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Credit Institutions

Subject. I herein focus on the capitalism in Russia today. Objectives. The study is an attempt to determine what distinguishes the financial and economic substance of the Russian capitalism today. Methods. The study relies upon the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. The article reveals the difference of trends in general indicators of financial and business activities in capitalist Russia, socialist China and the imperialist USA. I discover development distinctions of the Russian economy, such as high growth rates of money supply, considerable simultaneous drop in foreign exchange rates, moderate debts of the Russian households and minimum wages, low unemployment rate, low growth rate of the current account balance to GDP as compared with the devaluation rate of the national currency. Having conducted the neural network analysis of growth rates of the money supply, solvency ratios and profitability of entities, financial results of the Russian credit institutions, I found median values of growth rates. Negative values were captured for the return on assets, return on sale of goods, products, work, services, and the equity-to-total assets ratio. Positive ones were found for total profit derived by operational credit institutions, losses and the percentage of unprofitable credit institutions. As the cluster analysis of growth rates of households’ consumption spending shows, there is a palpable correlation between food products and alcohol-free beverages, alcohol beverages, tobacco, clothes, shoes, communications. Conclusions and Relevance. The financial and economic substance of the contemporary Russian capitalism helps financial institutions and legislature consistently set up the concept and principles for retaining capitalism in Russia, considering the marginal proportions of the money supply growth to the unemployment rate, minimal wages, debt and consumption spending of households, which are adjusted within the possible divergence of the foreign exchange rate and current account balance to GDP. The findings constitute the necessary scope of governmental authorities’ competence to make managerial decisions for keeping the capitalist vector of the Russian society and economy.

The Relationship of the Current Account Balance and the Budget Balance

1993 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 78-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.E. Winner
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Equivalence Theorem ◽  
The Other ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Traditional Theory ◽  
Ricardian Equivalence ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Current Account

This paper demonstrates that the traditional theory, that the current account balance and the budget balance are positively related, does not uphold when applied to Australian data. On the other hand, Australian data seems to indicate that Ricardian Equivalence Theorem better explains the movements in the economy.

Economic Threat and Authoritarianism in Television Programs: 1950–1974

1975 ◽  
Vol 37 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1153-1154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dale O. Jorgenson
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Prime Time ◽  
Television Programs ◽  
Gallup Poll ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Economic Threat

1761 prime-time television programs aired on the three major networks during the first week in October for each of the years from 1950 to 1974 were judged as either authoritarian or nonauthoritarian. As predicted, the proportion of authoritarian programs in a given year correlated positively with the annual unemployment rate, for that year, the change in the consumer price index from the previous year, and the proportion of Gallup Poll respondents who mentioned economic problems as most important in the U. S. A.

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