Evaluating technological resilience of small drinking water systems under the projected changes of climate

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Adnan Rajib ◽  
Md. Mujibur Rahman ◽  
Edward A. McBean
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Systems ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
The World ◽  
Drinking Water Systems

With prevailing changes in climate and increasing population, small drinking water systems in the climate-vulnerable parts of the world have already exhibited and left traces of prominent unpredictability of water availability, in terms of both water quantity and water quality. Dimensions of climate change, such as large variability in precipitation pattern, rise in temperature and associated increase in evaporation rates, as well as their consequences, are surely going to affect the unsophisticated, small drinking water systems which are serving mass populations in South Asia and many other parts of the world. This research paper aims to analyze the possible extents of vulnerability of some selected small drinking water systems currently being operated in the coastal areas of Bangladesh as a result of the predicted changes in climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation and evaporation along with sea level rise and extreme events such as cyclones. However, to examine possible future climate change scenarios, four Global Climate Models have been applied in developing projections of different climatic parameters for Bangladesh. Based on the projections of climate models and associated key vulnerabilities being assessed, this paper features the evaluation of potential technological resilience of specific small drinking water systems from the Bangladesh perspective.

Assess 21st century Flash Drought in the United States using high resolution regional climate models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandi Gamelin ◽  
Jiali Wang ◽  
V. Rao Kotamarthi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Groundwater Levels

<p>Flash droughts are the rapid intensification of drought conditions generally associated with increased temperatures and decreased precipitation on short time scales.  Consequently, flash droughts are responsible for reduced soil moisture which contributes to diminished agricultural yields and lower groundwater levels. Drought management, especially flash drought in the United States is vital to address the human and economic impact of crop loss, diminished water resources and increased wildfire risk. In previous research, climate change scenarios show increased growing season (i.e. frost-free days) and drying in soil moisture over most of the United States by 2100. Understanding projected flash drought is important to assess regional variability, frequency and intensity of flash droughts under future climate change scenarios. Data for this work was produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial and boundary conditions for the model were supplied by CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G, and HadGEM2-ES and based on the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The WRF model was downscaled to a 12 km spatial resolution for three climate time frames: 1995-2004 (Historical), 2045-2054 (Mid), and 2085-2094 (Late).  A key characteristic of flash drought is the rapid onset and intensification of dry conditions. For this, we identify onset with vapor pressure deficit during each time frame. Known flash drought cases during the Historical run are identified and compared to flash droughts in the Mid and Late 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>

Climate, ticks and disease

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Disease Ecology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Pathogen ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

scholarly journals Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 995-1012
Author(s):  
Lukas Brunner ◽  
Angeline G. Pendergrass ◽  
Flavio Lehner ◽  
Anna L. Merrifield ◽  
Ruth Lorenz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. The sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) constitutes the latest update on expected future climate change based on a new generation of climate models. To extract reliable estimates of future warming and related uncertainties from these models, the spread in their projections is often translated into probabilistic estimates such as the mean and likely range. Here, we use a model weighting approach, which accounts for the models' historical performance based on several diagnostics as well as model interdependence within the CMIP6 ensemble, to calculate constrained distributions of global mean temperature change. We investigate the skill of our approach in a perfect model test, where we use previous-generation CMIP5 models as pseudo-observations in the historical period. The performance of the distribution weighted in the abovementioned manner with respect to matching the pseudo-observations in the future is then evaluated, and we find a mean increase in skill of about 17 % compared with the unweighted distribution. In addition, we show that our independence metric correctly clusters models known to be similar based on a CMIP6 “family tree”, which enables the application of a weighting based on the degree of inter-model dependence. We then apply the weighting approach, based on two observational estimates (the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Retrospective Analysis – ERA5, and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 – MERRA-2), to constrain CMIP6 projections under weak (SSP1-2.6) and strong (SSP5-8.5) climate change scenarios (SSP refers to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). Our results show a reduction in the projected mean warming for both scenarios because some CMIP6 models with high future warming receive systematically lower performance weights. The mean of end-of-century warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) for SSP5-8.5 with weighting is 3.7 ∘C, compared with 4.1 ∘C without weighting; the likely (66%) uncertainty range is 3.1 to 4.6 ∘C, which equates to a 13 % decrease in spread. For SSP1-2.6, the weighted end-of-century warming is 1 ∘C (0.7 to 1.4 ∘C), which results in a reduction of −0.1 ∘C in the mean and −24 % in the likely range compared with the unweighted case.

scholarly journals Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Sperotto ◽  
Josè Luis Molina ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto ◽  
Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change

2006 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 751-777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Risto K. Heikkinen ◽  
Miska Luoto ◽  
Miguel B. Araújo ◽  
Raimo Virkkala ◽  
Wilfried Thuiller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Bioclimatic Modelling ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic ‘envelope’models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Risk-Based Performance of Bioinfiltration Facilities under Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Conor Lewellyn ◽  
Bridget Wadzuk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Couple Model Intercomparison Project ◽  
The World ◽  
Near Term

Many communities throughout the world are utilizing green infrastructure practices to mitigate the projected impacts of climate change. While some areas of the world are anticipating droughts, other areas are preparing for an increased flood risk, due to changes in precipitation volume and intensity. Cities rely on practices such as bioinfiltration to sustainably capture stormwater runoff and provide resilience against climate change. As cities aim to increase resilience and decrease climate-change-associated risks, a greater understanding of these risks is needed. A risk-based approach was used to evaluate bioinfiltration design and performance. Climate projections from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used to create near-term (2020–2049) and long-term (2050–2079) climate datasets for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). Both near-term and long-term climate models demonstrated increased precipitation and daily temperatures, similar to other areas in the U.S. Northeast, Midwest, Great Plains, and Alaska. Climate data were used to model bioinfiltration practices using continuous simulation hydrologic models. Overflow events and cumulative risk increased from bioinfiltration sites when compared to the baseline scenario (1970–1999). This study demonstrates how to apply a risk-based approach to bioinfiltration design using climate projections and provides recommendations to increase resilience in bioinfiltration design.

scholarly journals Resilience to Cope with Climate Change in Urban Areas—A Multisectorial Approach Focusing on Water—The RESCCUE Project

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Velasco ◽  
Beniamino Russo ◽  
Montserrat Martínez ◽  
Pere Malgrat ◽  
Robert Monjo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Resilience ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
The World ◽  
Resilience Assessment

The RESCCUE Project is an H2020 research project that aims to help cities around the world to become more resilient to physical, social, and economic challenges, using the water sector as the central point of the approach. RESCCUE will generate models and tools to bring this objective to practice, while delivering a framework enabling city resilience assessment, planning and management. This will be achieved by integrating software tools, methods, and new knowledge related to the detailed urban services performance into novel and promising loosely coupled models (integrated models), multi-risk assessment method, and a comprehensive resilience platform. These tools will allow urban resilience assessment from a multisectorial approach, for current and future climate change scenarios, including multiple hazards and cascading effects. The RESCCUE approach will be implemented in three EU cities (Barcelona, Bristol, and Lisbon) and, with the support of UN-Habitat, disseminate their results among other cities belonging to major international networks. The aim of this paper is to present the main goals of this project, as well as the approach followed and the main expected results after the four years of implementation, so other cities around the world can use the RESCCUE approach to increase their resilience.

Suitable regions for date palm cultivation in Iran are predicted to increase substantially under future climate change scenarios

2013 ◽  
Vol 152 (4) ◽  
pp. 543-557 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. SHABANI ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
S. TAYLOR
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Date Palm ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Soil Types ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Soil Taxonomy ◽  
Palm Distribution

SUMMARYThe objective of the present paper is to use CLIMEX software to project how climate change might impact the future distribution of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) in Iran. Although the outputs of this software are only based on the response of a species to climate, the CLIMEX results were refined in the present study using two non-climatic parameters: (a) the location of soils containing suitable physicochemical properties and (b) the spatial distribution of soil types having suitable soil taxonomy for dates, as unsuitable soil types impose problems in air permeability, hydraulic conductivity and root development. Here, two different Global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), were employed with the A2 emission scenario to model the potential date palm distribution under current and future climates in Iran for the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The results showed that only c. 0·30 of the area identified as suitable by CLIMEX will actually be suitable for date palm cultivation: the rest of the area comprises soil types that are not favourable for date palm cultivation. Moreover, the refined outputs indicate that the total area suitable for date palm cultivation will increase to 31·3 million ha by 2100, compared with 4·8 million ha for current date palm cultivation. The present results also indicate that only heat stress will have an impact on date palm distribution in Iran by 2100, with the areas currently impacted by cold stress diminishing by 2100.

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