Are social networking platforms the key to effective social distancing for COVID-19? (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viknesh Sounderajah ◽  
Hutan Ashrafian ◽  
Sheraz Markar ◽  
Ara Darzi
Keyword(s):  
Operating System ◽  
Social Networking ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Text Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Web Mapping ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Behavioural Insights ◽  
Mapping Software ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

UNSTRUCTURED If health systems are to effectively employ social distancing measures to in response to further COVID-19 peaks, they must adopt new behavioural metrics that can supplement traditional downstream measures, such as incidence and mortality. Access to mobile digital innovations may dynamically quantify compliance to social distancing (e.g. web mapping software) as well as establish personalised real-time contact tracing of viral spread (e.g. mobile operating system infrastructure through Google-Apple partnership). In particular, text data from social networking platforms can be mined for unique behavioural insights, such as symptom tracking and perception monitoring. Platforms, such as Twitter, have shown significant promise in tracking communicable pandemics. As such, it is critical that social networking companies collaborate with each other in order to (1) enrich the data that is available for analysis, (2) promote the creation of open access datasets for researchers and (3) cultivate relationships with governments in order to affect positive change.

scholarly journals Lockdown exit strategies and risk of a second epidemic peak: a stochastic agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Hoertel ◽  
Martin Blachier ◽  
Carlos Blanco ◽  
Mark Olfson ◽  
Marc Massetti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Nationwide Implementation

AbstractMost European countries have responded to the COVID-19 threat by nationwide implementation of barrier measures and lockdown. However, assuming that population immunity will build up through the epidemic, it is likely to rebound once these measures are relaxed, possibly leading to a second or multiple repeated lockdowns. In this report, we present results of epidemiological modelling that has helped inform policy making in France. We used a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, and examined the potential impact of post-quarantine measures, including social distancing, mask-wearing, and shielding of the population the most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 infection, on the disease’s cumulative incidence and mortality, and on ICU-bed occupancy. The model calibrated well and variation of model parameter values had little impact on outcome estimates. While quarantine is effective in containing the viral spread, it would be unlikely to prevent a rebound of the epidemic once lifted, regardless of its duration. Both social distancing and mask-wearing, although effective in slowing the epidemic and in reducing mortality, would also be ineffective in ultimately preventing the overwhelming of ICUs and a second lockdown. However, these measures coupled with shielding of vulnerable people would be associated with better outcomes, including lower cumulative incidence, mortality, and maintaining an adequate number of ICU beds to prevent a second lockdown. Benefits would nonetheless be markedly reduced if these measures were not applied by most people or not maintained for a sufficiently long period, as herd immunity progressively establishes in the less vulnerable population.

scholarly journals A versatile web app for identifying the drivers of COVID-19 epidemics

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne M. Getz ◽  
Richard Salter ◽  
Ludovica Luisa Vissat ◽  
Nir Horvitz
Keyword(s):  
Model Fitting ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Policies And Measures ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Web App ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background No versatile web app exists that allows epidemiologists and managers around the world to comprehensively analyze the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation. The http://covid-webapp.numerusinc.com/ web app presented here fills this gap. Methods Our web app uses a model that explicitly identifies susceptible, contact, latent, asymptomatic, symptomatic and recovered classes of individuals, and a parallel set of response classes, subject to lower pathogen-contact rates. The user inputs a CSV file of incidence and, if of interest, mortality rate data. A default set of parameters is available that can be overwritten through input or online entry, and a user-selected subset of these can be fitted to the model using maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE). Model fitting and forecasting intervals are specifiable and changes to parameters allow counterfactual and forecasting scenarios. Confidence or credible intervals can be generated using stochastic simulations, based on MLE values, or on an inputted CSV file containing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates of one or more parameters. Results We illustrate the use of our web app in extracting social distancing, social relaxation, surveillance or virulence switching functions (i.e., time varying drivers) from the incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 epidemics in Israel, South Africa, and England. The Israeli outbreak exhibits four distinct phases: initial outbreak, social distancing, social relaxation, and a second wave mitigation phase. An MCMC projection of this latter phase suggests the Israeli epidemic will continue to produce into late November an average of around 1500 new case per day, unless the population practices social-relaxation measures at least 5-fold below the level in August, which itself is 4-fold below the level at the start of July. Our analysis of the relatively late South African outbreak that became the world’s fifth largest COVID-19 epidemic in July revealed that the decline through late July and early August was characterised by a social distancing driver operating at more than twice the per-capita applicable-disease-class (pc-adc) rate of the social relaxation driver. Our analysis of the relatively early English outbreak, identified a more than 2-fold improvement in surveillance over the course of the epidemic. It also identified a pc-adc social distancing rate in early August that, though nearly four times the pc-adc social relaxation rate, appeared to barely contain a second wave that would break out if social distancing was further relaxed. Conclusion Our web app provides policy makers and health officers who have no epidemiological modelling or computer coding expertise with an invaluable tool for assessing the impacts of different outbreak mitigation policies and measures. This includes an ability to generate an epidemic-suppression or curve-flattening index that measures the intensity with which behavioural responses suppress or flatten the epidemic curve in the region under consideration.

scholarly journals Examining the interplay between face mask usage, asymptomatic transmission, and social distancing on the spread of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Catching ◽  
Sara Capponi ◽  
Ming Te Yeh ◽  
Simone Bianco ◽  
Raul Andino
Keyword(s):  
Social Distance ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
The Face ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
High Virus

AbstractCOVID-19’s high virus transmission rates have caused a pandemic that is exacerbated by the high rates of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections. These factors suggest that face masks and social distance could be paramount in containing the pandemic. We examined the efficacy of each measure and the combination of both measures using an agent-based model within a closed space that approximated real-life interactions. By explicitly considering different fractions of asymptomatic individuals, as well as a realistic hypothesis of face masks protection during inhaling and exhaling, our simulations demonstrate that a synergistic use of face masks and social distancing is the most effective intervention to curb the infection spread. To control the pandemic, our models suggest that high adherence to social distance is necessary to curb the spread of the disease, and that wearing face masks provides optimal protection even if only a small portion of the population comply with social distance. Finally, the face mask effectiveness in curbing the viral spread is not reduced if a large fraction of population is asymptomatic. Our findings have important implications for policies that dictate the reopening of social gatherings.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

scholarly journals 503. The Misappropriation of COVID-19 Related TV Ad Expenditures

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S317-S317
Author(s):  
Kartavya J Vyas
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Preventive Interventions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Background With nearly three-fourths of the U.S. population isolated in their homes between early March and the end of May, almost all of whom regularly watch television (TV), it was no surprise that companies began to purchase airtime on major television networks to advertise (ad) their brands and showcase their empathy with the populace. But how would the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic curve have changed had these same dollars been allocated to proven preventive interventions? Methods Performance and activity metrics on all COVID-19 related TV ads that have aired in the U.S. between February 26th and June 7th, 2020, were provided by iSpot.tv, Inc., including expenditures. COVID-19 incidence and mortality data were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Descriptive statistics were performed to calculate total TV ad expenditures and other performance metrics across industry categories. Leveraging a previously published stochastic agent-based model that was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19, the number of cases that would have been prevented had these same dollars been used for preventive interventions was calculated using cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs), the cost divided by cases prevented. Results A total of 1,513 companies purchased TV airtime during the study period, totaling approximately 1.1 million airings, 215.5 billion impressions, and $2.7 billion in expenditures; most of the expenditures were spent by the restaurant (15.9%), electronics and communications (15.4%), and vehicle (13.7%) industries. The CERs for PPE and social distancing measures were $13,856 and $29,552, respectively; therefore, had all of these TV ad dollars instead been allocated to PPE or social distancing measures, approximately 194,908 and 91,386 cases of COVID-19 may have been prevented by the end of the study period, respectively. Figure 2. COVID-19 cases prevented had TV ad expenditures been reallocated for interventions. Conclusion Americans were inundated with COVID-19 related TV ads during the early months of the pandemic and companies are now showing some signs to relent. In times of disaster, however, it is paramount that the private sector go beyond showcasing their empathy and truly become socially responsible by allocating their funds to proven prevention and control measures. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals 598 Patients’ Knowledge and Compliance with Government Guidelines for COVID 19

2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Eskander ◽  
A Khallaf ◽  
S Zaki ◽  
M Elkawafi ◽  
R Makar
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Hospital Stay ◽  
Safe Distance ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Information Leaflets ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Male Patients ◽  
The Government

Abstract Background Since the outbreak of COVID-19; social distancing and recognized effective precautions were recommended by various governments to fight the viral spread. Our aim was to assess the inpatient knowledge and compliance with the government guidelines during their hospital stay and at their discharge in two different NHS hospitals. Method The study took place in two hospitals: Berrywood hospital, UK and Countess of Chester hospital, UK. We invited inpatients to answer an anonymized questionnaire which was designed to include the contemporary government guidelines. We excluded patients with cognitive impairment and those who were not expected to be discharged within days. Results Out of 209 patients, 50% were male. Patients showed good awareness of the main symptoms of the virus (90%). However, A significant number of patients were not fully aware of the recommended precautions to minimize viral spread (28%) and the method of spread (43%). About 41% did not know the recommended safe distance. Conclusions Despite being aware of the main symptoms of COVID-19, a significant number of patients lack essential information needed to minimize the spread of the virus in the society and hospital. We recommend providing patients with information leaflets and direct advice on admission and discharge.

Updated picture of SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutations

Diagnosis ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Lippi ◽  
Camilla Mattiuzzi ◽  
Brandon M. Henry
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Definitive Treatment ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Limited Efficacy ◽  
Highly Virulent ◽  
New Mutations

Abstract The worldwide burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still unremittingly prosecuting, with nearly 300 million infections and over 5.3 million deaths recorded so far since the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) pandemic at the end of the year 2019. The fight against this new highly virulent beta coronavirus appears one of the most strenuous and long challenges that humanity has ever faced, since a definitive treatment has not been identified so far. The adoption of potentially useful physical preventive measures such as lockdowns, social distancing and face masking seems only partially effective for mitigating viral spread, though efficacy and continuation of such measures on the long term is questionable, due to many social and economic reasons. Many COVID-19 vaccines have been developed and are now widely used, though their effectiveness is challenged by several aspects such as low uptake and limited efficacy in some specific populations, as well as by continuous emergence of new mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, accompanying the origin and spread of new variants, which in turn may contribute to further decrease the effectiveness of current vaccines and treatments. This article is hence aimed to provide an updated picture of SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutations that have emerged from November 2019 to present time (i.e., early December 2021).

High national acceptance for COVID-19 contact tracing technologies in Taiwan (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul M. Garrett ◽  
Yuwen Wang ◽  
Joshua P. White ◽  
Yoshihisa Kashima ◽  
Simon Dennis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Technology Acceptance ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Privacy And Security ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Privacy Measures ◽  
Credible Intervals

BACKGROUND Governments worldwide have introduced COVID-19 tracing technologies. Taiwan, a world leader in controlling the virus’ spread, has introduced the Taiwan ‘Social Distancing App’ to facilitate COVID-19 contact tracing. However, for these technologies to be effective, they must be accepted and used by the public. OBJECTIVE Our study aimed to determine public acceptance for three hypothetical tracing technologies: a centralized Government App, a decentralized Bluetooth App (e.g., Taiwan’s Social Distancing App), and a Telecommunication tracing technology; and model what factors contributed to their acceptance. METHODS Four nationally representative surveys were conducted in April 2020 sampling 6,000 Taiwanese residents. Perceptions and impacts of COVID-19, government effectiveness, worldviews, and attitudes towards and acceptance of one-of-three hypothetical tracing technologies were assessed. RESULTS Technology acceptance was high across all hypothetical technologies (67% - 73%) and improved with additional privacy measures (82% - 88%). Bayesian modelling (using 95% highest density credible intervals) showed data sensitivity and perceived poor COVID-19 policy compliance inhibited technology acceptance. By contrast, technology benefits (e.g., returning to activities, reducing virus spread, lowering the likelihood of infection), higher education, and perceived technology privacy, security, and trust, were all contributing factors to overall acceptance. Bayesian ordinal probit models revealed higher COVID-19 concern for other people than for one’s self. CONCLUSIONS Taiwan is currently using a range of technologies to minimize the spread of COVID-19 as the country returns to normal economic and social activities. We observed high acceptance for COVID-19 tracing technologies among the Taiwanese public, a promising and necessary finding for the successful introduction of Taiwan’s new ‘Social Distancing App’. Policy makers may capitalize on this acceptance by focusing attention towards the App’s benefits, privacy and security measures, making the App’s privacy measures transparent to the public, and emphasizing App uptake and compliance among the public. CLINICALTRIAL Not applicable.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Matrajt ◽  
Tiffany Leung
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Old Adults ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Us

AbstractSARS-CoV-2 has infected over 140,000 people as of March 14, 2020. We use a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions lasting six weeks in a middle-sized city in the US. We explore four social distancing strategies by reducing the contacts of adults over 60 years old, adults over 60 years old and children, all adults (25, 75 or 95% compliance), and everyone in the population. Our results suggest that social distancing interventions can avert cases by 20% and hospitalizations and deaths by 90% even with modest compliance within adults as long as the intervention is kept in place, but the epidemic is set to rebound once the intervention is lifted. Our models suggest that social distancing interventions will buy crucial time but need to occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the school setting: A systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Martinoli ◽  
Carlo La Vecchia ◽  
Sara Raimondi ◽  
Federica Bellerba ◽  
Clementina Sasso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
School Setting ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Random Effects Models ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Literature Searches ◽  
Index Cases

Background. The contribution of children to viral spread in schools is still under debate. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies to investigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the school setting. Methods: Literature searches from April, 2021 and repeated on May, 15th 2021 yielded a total of 1088 publications: screening, contact tracing and seroprevalence studies. MOOSE guidelines were followed and data analyzed using random-effects models. Results: From screening studies involving more than 120,000 subjects, we estimated 0.31% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.05-0.81%) SARS-CoV-2 point prevalence in schools. Contact tracing studies, involving a total of 112,622 contacts of children and adults, showed that onward viral transmission was limited (2.54%; 95%CI 0.76-5.31). Young index cases were found to be 74% significantly less likely than adults to favor viral spread (Odds Ratio [OR]=0.26; 95%CI 0.11-0.63) and were less susceptible to infection (OR=0.60; 95% CI 0.25-1.47). Finally, from seroprevalence studies, with a total of 17,879 subjects involved, we estimated that children are 43% significantly less likely than adults to test positive for antibodies (OR=0.57; 95%CI: 0.49-0.68). In conclusion, testing all subjects in schools, independently of symptoms, students less likely than adults favor viral spread and SARS-CoV-2 circulation in schools was found to be limited.

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