Modelling the Paucity of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread Incidence across the India Nation (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfonso J. Rodriguez-Morales ◽  
Ram Kumar Singh ◽  
S.S. Singh ◽  
A. K. Pandey ◽  
Vinod Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Indian States ◽  
The World ◽  
Confirmatory Data Analysis

BACKGROUND The highly contagious Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic affected nearly all nations across the world. It was emerged as most swiftly affected disease across the world and more than 2934 lakhs population suffered in four months of the time period as on date April 26, 2020. Its first epicenter was at Wuhan city of China during the month of December 2019. Currently, the most affected people and new epicenter of Coronavirus is at the United States of America (USA). It is identified as the most severe pandemic disease in human history during the past 100 years. Due to non-availability of specific medication, the World Health Organization (WHO) suggested various measures of precautions and social distance in between the people for the restricting the spread of the COVID-19 disease. Various nation’s administration including the India government called for the regional and local lockdown. OBJECTIVE We predicted the confirmed COVID-19 cases for next May-2020 month, map the magnitude of COVID-19 disease for Indian states and model the paucity of COVID-19 disease with statistical confirmatory data analysis model for declining rate for the cases represented for the Indian proportion of population. METHODS The ARIMA model used to predict for next short-term cases, based moving average of past confirmed cases. The restriction of COVID-19 pandemic disease analyzed with predicted cases for month May 2020 data at 95 percent confidence is more than 2.5 lakh cases. RESULTS The confirmatory data analysis model for the time estimation for the paucity of cases it takes in between six to eighteen months of time frame. The Confirmatory model which considers recovery rate, social, economic and government policy. To complete recovery from the COVID-19 cases it takes on an average more than next ten months. CONCLUSIONS The disease impacts also depend upon administrative and local people support for self-quarantine and other measures. The India nation Gross Domestic Product (GDP) based on more than 17% of its agriculture production, due to longer affect of the disease and extended lockdown period it will be severely affected. However, all the economic activities with full of its intensity takes-up after complete paucity of COVID-19 disease spread. CLINICALTRIAL wqew ere re

scholarly journals Modelling the Paucity of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread Incidence across the India Nation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfonso J. Rodriguez-Morales ◽  
Ram Kumar Singh ◽  
S. S. Singh ◽  
A. K. Pandey ◽  
Vinod Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Complete Recovery ◽  
The United States ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Indian States ◽  
The World ◽  
Confirmatory Data Analysis

Abstract Background: The highly contagious Co rona vi rus d isease (COVID-19) pandemic affected nearly all nations across the world. It was emerged as most swiftly affected disease across the world and more than 2934 lakhs population suffered in four months of the time period as on date April 26, 2020. Its first epicenter was at Wuhan city of China during the month of December 2019. Currently, the most affected people and new epicenter of Coronavirus is at the United States of America (USA). Various nation’s administration including the India government called for the regional and local lockdown. We predicted the confirmed COVID-19 cases for next May-2020 month, map the magnitude of COVID-19 disease for Indian states and model the paucity of COVID-19 disease with statistical confirmatory data analysis model for declining rate for the cases represented for the Indian proportion of population. Method: The ARIMA model used to predict for next short-term cases, based moving average of past confirmed cases. The restriction of COVID-19 pandemic disease analyzed with predicted cases for month May 2020 data at 95 percent confidence is more than 2.5 lakh cases. Results: The confirmatory data analysis model for the time estimation for the paucity of cases it takes in between six to eighteen months of time frame. The Confirmatory model which considers recovery rate, social, economic and government policy. To complete recovery from the COVID-19 cases it takes on an average more than next ten months. Conclusion: The disease impacts also depend upon administrative and local people support for self-quarantine and other measures. The India nation Gross Domestic Product (GDP) based on more than 17% of its agriculture production, due to longer affect of the disease and extended lockdown period it will be severely affected. However, all the economic activities with full of its intensity takes-up after complete paucity of COVID-19 disease spread. Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; Lockdown; GDP; Nobel-Corona; Confirmatory data model

ARIMA model for forecasting COVID-19 Death cases in India (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeya Sutha M
Keyword(s):  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
World Health ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Death Cases

UNSTRUCTURED COVID-19, the disease caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a highly contagious disease. On January 30, 2020 the World Health Organization declared the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. As of July 25, 2020; 15,947,292 laboratory-confirmed and 642,814 deaths have been reported globally. India has reported 1,338,928 confirmed cases and 31,412 deaths till date. This paper presents different aspects of COVID-19, visualization of the spread of infection and presents the ARIMA model for forecasting the status of COVID-19 death cases in the next 50 days in order to take necessary precaution by the Government to save the people.

The Ethics of COVID-19 Vaccine Passports

2021 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Joseph Meaney ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
The United States ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Medical Decisions ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Divided Society ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

COVID-19 vaccine passports run the risk of creating a divided society where social privileges or restrictions based on “fitness” lead to discrimination based on immunization status. Individuals have a strong right to be free of coercion to take a COVID-19 vaccine, and we should be very leery of further invasion of private medical decisions. These concerns are shared both internationally and in the United States, and the World Health Organization, the Biden administration, and many US governors oppose COVID-19 vaccine credentials. In addition, regulations for COVID-19 vaccine credentials face practical barriers, including lack of access globally, especially among the poor; and lack of scientific data on the efficacy of these vaccines.

(Mis)Information on Digital Platforms: Lessons from Twitter and Sina Weibo in the COVID-19 Pandemic (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Kreps
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Sina Weibo ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Relative Prevalence

BACKGROUND Misinformation about COVID-19 has presented challenges to public health authorities during pandemics. Understanding the prevalence and type of misinformation across contexts offers a way to understand the discourse around COVID-19 while informing potential countermeasures. OBJECTIVE The aim of the study was to study COVID-19 content on two prominent microblogging platform, Twitter, based in the United States, and Sina Weibo, based in China, and compare the content and relative prevalence of misinformation to better understand public discourse of public health issues across social media and cultural contexts. METHODS A total of 3,579,575 posts were scraped from both Weibo and Twitter, focusing on content from January 30th, 2020, when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” and February 6th, 2020. A 1% random sample of tweets that contained both the English keywords “coronavirus” and “covid-19” and the equivalent Chinese characters was extracted and analyzed based on changes in the frequencies of keywords and hashtags. Misinformation on each platform was compared by manually coding and comparing posts using the World Health Organization fact-check page to adjudicate accuracy of content. RESULTS Both platforms posted about the outbreak and transmission but posts on Sina Weibo were less likely to reference controversial topics such as the World Health Organization and death and more likely to cite themes of resisting, fighting, and cheering against the coronavirus. Misinformation constituted 1.1% of Twitter content and 0.3% of Weibo content. CONCLUSIONS Quantitative and qualitative analysis of content on both platforms points to cross-platform differences in public discourse surrounding the pandemic and informs potential countermeasures for online misinformation.

scholarly journals Indonesian Policy in Ratifying The 2015 Paris Agreement

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Haekal - Siraj
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Forest Degradation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
The World

 The 2015 Paris Agreement requires all participating countries to reduce emisson level. Indonesia as Non-Annex I accepted the norms of the 2015 Paris Agreement by ratifying this agreement. Meanwhile, Indonesia's emissions level continues to increase due to the rate of deforestation and forest degradation in Indonesia which ranks highest in the world. This study aims to analyze Indonesian policy in ratifying the agreement by using the Constructivism Perspective in explaining the International Regime and the Concept of Norm Influence by Finnemore and Sikkink. The study uses qualitative methods with explanatory designs. Data collection techniques are sourced from secondary sources as well as data analysis techniques carried out by reduction, presentation, and drawing conclusions as well as verification. This study found that the United States as a hegemonic state acting as the norm entrepreneurs by granting climate change financial assistance of $500 million through the GCF for Indonesia as a developing country was a condition affecting Indonesia in ratifying the agreement. Keywords: Indonesia, ratify, 2015 Paris Agreement, norm, climate change.

scholarly journals Quality Evaluation of Ethambutol Hydrochloride Tablet Batches Available in Governmental Health Facilities of Jimma Town, Southwest Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Meseret Yirdaw ◽  
Belachew Umeta ◽  
Yimer Mokennen
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Facilities ◽  
World Health ◽  
Southwest Ethiopia ◽  
Weight Variation ◽  
The World ◽  
Storage Area ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Jimma Town

Background. The availability of poor-quality drugs on the drug market might favor the ineffectiveness of the drug and/antimicrobial resistance. Aim. To evaluate the quality of similar batches of ethambutol hydrochloride tablets available in different governmental health facilities of Jimma town, southwest Ethiopia. Methods. The World Health Organization checklist was used to inspect the storage area of health facilities and check medicines for the sign of counterfeit. The test was conducted as per the United States Pharmacopeia on six similar batches of ethambutol hydrochloride sampled from different governmental health facilities. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20, and one-way ANOVA was used for comparing the dissolution profile and weight variation of batches. Results. Three health facilities did not comply with the storage area specifications for pharmaceuticals. No batches have shown any sign of counterfeit. All of the tablet batches tested complied with USP specifications for weight variation, percentage purity, and dissolution test. Conclusions and Recommendation. The entire tablet batches complied with the World Health Organization specification for packaging and labelling of pharmaceuticals. All tablet batches complied with the test for weight variation, purity of drug substance, and dissolution. Since some health facilities did not comply with at least one specification for storage of pharmaceuticals, regulatory agencies and stack holders are advised to inspect the health facilities to ensure appropriate storage of pharmaceuticals in health facilities.

scholarly journals Cluster analysis of the origins of the new influenza A(H1N1) virus

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (21) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Solovyov ◽  
G Palacios ◽  
T Briese ◽  
W I Lipkin ◽  
R Rabadan
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
H1n1 Virus ◽  
Swine Influenza ◽  
The United States ◽  
Influenza Viruses ◽  
World Health ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

In March and April 2009, a new strain of influenza A(H1N1) virus has been isolated in Mexico and the United States. Since the initial reports more than 10,000 cases have been reported to the World Health Organization, all around the world. Several hundred isolates have already been sequenced and deposited in public databases. We have studied the genetics of the new strain and identified its closest relatives through a cluster analysis approach. We show that the new virus combines genetic information related to different swine influenza viruses. Segments PB2, PB1, PA, HA, NP and NS are related to swine H1N2 and H3N2 influenza viruses isolated in North America. Segments NA and M are related to swine influenza viruses isolated in Eurasia.

Annual Summary of Vital Statistics—1976

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1977 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 797-804
Author(s):  
Myron E. Wegman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Nations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Statistics ◽  
The World ◽  
States Data ◽  
International Data ◽  
Health Organization

Data for this article, as in previous reports,1 are drawn principally from the Monthly Vital Statistics Report,2-5 published by the National Center for Health Statistics. The international data come from the Demographic Yearbook6 and the quarterly Population and Vital Statistics Report,7 both published by the Statistical Office of the United Nations, and the World Health Statistics Report,8 published by the World Health Organization. All the United States data for 1976 are estimates by place of occurrence based upon a 10% sample of material received in state offices between two dates, one month apart, regardless of when the event occurred. Experience has shown that for the country as a whole the estimate is very close to the subsequent final figures.

scholarly journals Expanding the definition of noncommunicable disease

2016 ◽  
Vol 04 (02) ◽  
pp. 067-070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranabir Salam
Keyword(s):  
Liver Disease ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
The United States ◽  
Noncommunicable Disease ◽  
World Health ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
World Population ◽  
The World ◽  
Definition Of

AbstractNoncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for 68% of all deaths in 2012. Eighty-two percent of these “premature” deaths occurred in low- and middle-income countries. Most of the NCD deaths are caused by cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, mental health, road traffic accidents, and violence. The World Health Organization, several governments, and nongovernmental organizations have taken up numerous programs to curb the menace of NCDs. However, the present programs do not include some common chronic medical conditions which also lead to considerable morbidity and mortality. The present review highlights three important chronic disorders: chronic kidney disease (CKD), liver disease (cirrhosis and nonalcoholic fatty liver), and thyroid diseases. CKD is an internationally recognized public health problem affecting 5–10% of the world population. CKD resulted in 956,000 deaths in 2013 and proposes them to be included in the world wide accepted definition of NCD. Cirrhosis and chronic liver disease were the tenth leading cause of death for men and the twelfth for women in the United States in 2001. Moreover, 4–10% of the global population have thyroid dysfunction. This mini-review proposes to expand the definition of NCD to include these three major illnesses.

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