scholarly journals Problems of creating predictive models of the COVID19 coronavirus pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-38
Author(s):  
E. A. Levkova ◽  
R. I. Sepiashvili ◽  
S. Z. Savin
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Computer Aided Analysis ◽  
International Data ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Methodological Approaches

Relevance. The article is devoted to creating prognostic models based on epidemiological and immunological data. Objective: to study the comparative dynamic epidemiological and immunological characteristics of patients with COVID-19. Materials and methods. Methodological approaches to the use of system analysis of epidemiological and immunological characteristics of patients with COVID-19 using multivariate analysis are described. The used technologies of computer-aided analysis systems, algorithms for recognizing, measuring and identifying the condition of patients, and methods of statistical data processing made it possible to create a universal information predictive model for calculating the dynamics of infectious diseases prone to generalization (pandemics), as well as to understand in which groups these new infectious diseases are most dangerous. Results and discussion. Using the methods of system analysis, the epidemiological and immunological aspects of predictive models of the coronavirus pandemic were evaluated using the most objective international data, which increased the information content of the analysis. Conclusions . Creating predictive epidemiological and immunological models of the pandemic is an urgent and promising task to combat the medical and social consequences of the spread of coronavirus infection in Russia.

Estimation of Competitiveness of Single-Industry Towns of the Samara Region

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-81
Author(s):  
Julia Rishatovna Kuzhanbaeva ◽  
Rustam Taufihovich Kuzhanbaev ◽  
Maria S. Guseva
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Practical Interest ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Structural Dynamic ◽  
Single Industry ◽  
Integral Indicator

In order to prevent negative socio-economic trends, to predict the social consequences of decisions on the implementation of state policy in the development of single-industry territories, public authorities monitor the socio-economic situation in single-industry towns based on an assessment of a number of statistical indicators. Such a differentiated assessment of statistical parameters does not allow a comprehensive assessment of the level of development and competitiveness of a single-industry town by territory, which is of particular relevance in modern conditions of glocalization. Of particular scientific and practical interest is a comparative analysis of the level of development of single-industry towns on the basis of an integral indicator that takes into account aspects of various spheres of life of the population and allows an objective assessment of the competitive positions of single-industry territories, which is currently not used by state authorities for monitoring. The purpose of the work is to assess and justify the conditions and development trends of single-industry towns of the Samara region on the basis of calculating the integral indicator of competitiveness, taking into account the level of development of the economy, finance, employment, social security and demography, as well as the mono-profile level of territories. In this study, we used the methods of system analysis, the method of comparisons and analogies, the method of generalization, the methods of dialectic and statistical analysis, the method of expert estimates, the method of retrospective estimates and structural-dynamic analysis. The paper provides an overview of the single-industry towns of the regions of the Volga Federal District; the results of testing the methodology for assessing the competitiveness of single-industry towns of the Samara region on the basis of an integral indicator are presented and trends in its change in the period 2013–2017 are identified. The study involved four single-industry towns of the Samara region: Oktyabrsk, Pohvistnevo, Tolyatti, Chapaevsk. The calculations showed that For five years Oktyabrsk was an outsider in four of the six areas under study (economics, labor, social services, demography), which led to the lowest competitiveness index and allowed us to identify the competitiveness of a single-industry town as “below average”. In relatively equal socio-economic conditions, there were Pohvistnevo, Togliatti and Chapaevsk, the level of competitiveness of which is “above average”.

ORGANIZATIONAL MEASURES FOR SPECIAL TRANSPORT PROCESSING USED FOR CONVICTS AND PERSONS IN CUSTODY ESCORTING INCLUDING PATIENTS WITH INFECTIOUS DISEASES

2020 ◽  
pp. 43-47
Author(s):  
Валерий Викторович Кубанов
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Ultraviolet Radiation ◽  
Selection Criteria ◽  
Legal Regulation ◽  
Ultraviolet Disinfection ◽  
Physical Methods ◽  
Combined Use ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Hygienic Conditions

В статье анализируются вопросы правового регулирования и организации мероприятий по обработке специального транспорта, используемого для конвоирования осужденных и лиц, содержащихся под стражей, в целях недопущения распространения заболеваний, вызванных новой коронавирусной инфекцией (COVID-19). Охарактеризована правовая регламентация санитарно-гигиенической и противоэпидемиологической деятельности в условиях учреждений, обеспечивающих изоляцию от общества. Показан комплекс проблем, связанных с обеспечением необходимых санитарно-гигиенических условий при перевозках осужденных и лиц, содержащихся под стражей. Исследован вопрос о критериях отбора дезинфицирующего средства, применяемого для обработки специального транспорта. Сформулированы дополнительные требования, предъявляемые к дезинфицирующим средствам, в современных условиях распространения новой коронавирусной инфекции (COVID-19). Сделан вывод о целесообразности сочетания химических и физических способов проведения дезинфекции. Предложено комбинированное использование химических аэрозольных методов и физических ультрафиолетовых дезинфекционных технологий, реализуемых посредством бактерицидных облучателей-рециркуляторов воздуха, предназначенных для обеззараживания воздуха ультрафиолетовым излучением в различных закрытых пространствах, включая салоны транспортных средств. Затронуты вопросы организации дезинфекционных пунктов в учреждениях уголовно-исполнительной системы Самарской области. The article analyzes the issues of legal regulation and organization of measures for processing special transport used for convicts and persons in custody escorting in order to prevent the spread of diseases caused by a new coronavirus infection (covid-19). The article describes the legal regulation of sanitary-hygienic and antiepidemiological activities in institutions that provide isolation from society. The complex of problems related to ensuring the necessary sanitary and hygienic conditions during transportation of convicts and persons in custody is shown. The question of the selection criteria for the disinfectant used for the treatment of special transport is investigated. Additional requirements for disinfectants are formulated in the current conditions of the spread of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19). The conclusion is made about the expediency of combining chemical and physical methods of disinfection. The combined use of chemical aerosol methods and physical ultraviolet disinfection technologies implemented by means of bactericidal irradiators-air recirculators designed for disinfection of air with ultraviolet radiation in various enclosed spaces, including vehicle interiors, is proposed The issues of organization of disinfection points in institutions of the penitentiary system of the Samara region were discussed.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the food industry

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-43
Author(s):  
Е.В. Бурденко ◽  
А.Т. Кадиева
Keyword(s):  
Food Industry ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Catering Industry ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Analysis And Study

Проводится анализ и изучение степени влияния введенных карантинных мер из-за начала и вспышки коронавирусной инфекции на отрасль общественного питания в России и других странах. В статье приведены статистические данные о текущей ситуации в данной отрасли, а также описаны варианты антикризисных мероприятий для предотвращения дальнейшего ухудшения положения предприятий ресторанного бизнеса. The analysis and study of the impact of the introduced quarantine measures due to the onset and outbreak of coronavirus infection on the catering industry in Russia and other countries is being carried out. The article provides statistical data on the current situation in this industry, as well as describes options for anti-crisis measures to prevent further deterioration of the restaurant business.

COVID-19: Analysis of statistics, a range of regulations and standard operating procedures

2021 ◽  
pp. 21-27
Author(s):  
O.A. Gizinger
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Standard Operating Procedures ◽  
Diagnosis And Treatment ◽  
Regulatory Documents ◽  
Current Information ◽  
Standard Operating ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Patient Studies

The article presents an analysis of current information on statistical data, a number of regulatory documents and standard operating procedures for vaccination and specific prevention of new coronavirus infection. The text of the article was compiled on the basis of an analysis of regulatory documents, the results of patient studies conducted at Laboratory Gemotest LLC, and version 10 of the Temporary Guidelines «Prevention, Diagnosis and Treatment of New Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)», developed by leading Russian experts.

scholarly journals METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO DEVELOPMENT OF INTELLIGENT AVIATION SAFETY CONTROL SYSTEM

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-48
Author(s):  
Aleksey Anatolivich Kulik ◽  
Alexander Afanasievich Bolshakov
Keyword(s):  
Human Factor ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Control Law ◽  
Flight Safety ◽  
Aviation Accidents ◽  
Safety Control ◽  
Technical Direction ◽  
New Class ◽  
Methodological Approaches

The article describes a new class of organizational and technical systems - intelligent aviation systems, whose operational principles provide the increased safety of an aircraft flight. The development of systems of this class is primarily explained by the need to record statistical data on the main causes of aviation accidents (human factor - up to 87%, failure of aviation equipment - up to 15%, external factors - 2% of all cases). A scientific problem is formulated related to the importance of creating methods for assessing and predicting the threat of an accident based on direct control of changes in the values of characteristics that affect flight safety. For this, it is proposed to use the methods and means of the scientific and technical direction of artificial intelligence, which will reveal the immediate causes of an aviation accident and prevent them using the flight safety management system. The technical characteristics are considered, the properties of the system under study are presented, which determine the principles of its functioning: intelligence, information content, speed, controllability, interdependence of subsystems, flight safety, including identification of the threat of an accident, its prediction and parry. The above principles of the functioning of the system under study, which are part of the methodology for managing the safety of an aircraft in flight, are implemented in a set of methods and algorithms. Among them should be noted the intelligent method for assessing the threat of an aviation accident, the method for predicting the threat of an accident, the method for supporting decision-making by the crew in the event of the threat of an accident, as well as the method for synthesizing the control law for countering the threat

Problems of disinfectological provision of the population in the pandemic period of COVID-19 infection in the Republic of Moldova

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-51
Author(s):  
Vasily Aleksandrovich Tsurkan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Treatment And Prevention ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Economic Nature

The principles of organizing and implementing anti-epidemic, including disinfectological measures for COVID-19 infection were studied, and the results of the state of readiness of interested services in the localization and elimination of focuses of coronavirus infection were presented. It was noted that the untimely solution of existing problems of a socio-economic nature contributed to the development of the pandemic process of COVID-19 infection. In the initial period of the development of the pandemic in most countries of the world, including Moldova, the system for monitoring and actively detecting cases of the population of COVID-19 did not work. Lack of disinfection services and insufficiently trained disinfectologists lead to untimely and poor-quality disinfection measures. The role of the disinfectological service in ensuring the epidemiological well-being of the population is argued. The necessity of creating a new, comprehensive system for protecting the country’s population from especially dangerous infectious diseases has been substantiated. Keywords: disinfection measures, biocides, treatment and prevention organizations, pandemic process, technologies, methods, forces and means, provision, infectious diseases, COVID-19 infection

scholarly journals Predicting Methods for Analyzing Data on Fatal Outcome Possibility in the Combination of Acute Coronary Syndrome and Atrial Fibrillation According to the Krasnodar Region Registry

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-385
Author(s):  
Z. G. Tatarintseva ◽  
E. D. Kosmacheva ◽  
S. V. Kruchinova ◽  
V. A. Akinshina ◽  
A. A. Khalafyan
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Acute Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Fatal Outcome ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Lethal Outcome ◽  
Clinical Indicators ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Clinical Indices

With the development of atrial fibrillation (AF), patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are characterized by a twofold increase in the 30-day mortality compared with patients with sinus rhythm. In this regard, there is great interest in developing models of risk stratification to identify adverse outcomes in these patients with a view to more careful monitoring of patients in this group.Material and methods. For the construction of predictive models, a statistical method was used for the classification trees and, the procedure for neural networks implemented in the STATISTICA package. For the construction of prognostic models, a sample was used, consisting of 201 patients with and without fatal outcome; condition of each patient was described by 42 quantitative and qualitative clinical indices. Each patient belonged to one of 3 groups according to the type of AF: new-onset AF in ACS patient, paroxysmal AF, documented in an anamnesis before the episode of ACS and the constant or persistent form of AF.Results. To determine predictors of models predicting the possible fatal outcome of a patient, the Spearman correlation coefficient was used. Examination of the correlations for each of the 3 groups separately allowed to reveal clinical indicators for each group – predictors of predictive models with predominantly moderate correlations to the categorical variable “lethal outcome”. After analyzing the prognostic ability of the developed models, a software module was created in the Microsoft Visual C # 2015 programming environment to determine lethal outcome possibility in patients with ACS in the presence of AF using classification trees and neural networks.Conclusion. It is shown that for patients with ACS in the presence of AF, it is possible to construct mathematically based prognostic models that can reliably predict the lethal outcome possibility in patients based on actual values of clinical indices. In this case, clinical indicators can be both quantitative and qualitative (categorical), breaking patients into certain categories. Similar applications, unlike risk scales, are mathematically justified and can form the basis of systems for supporting decision-making.

The Analysis of Customs Services Practice in the Conditions of the Eurasian Economic Union: Problems and Directions of Improvement

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1259
Author(s):  
Yuliya Evgenievna GUPANOVA ◽  
Gulzida Iksanovna NEMIROVA ◽  
Alexander Evgenievich SUGLOBOV
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Special Importance ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Methodological Approaches

One of the most important directions of customs authorities development at the present time is improvement of the customs services sphere that will allow to influence on trade expenses decreasing for business, ensuring economic security, increasing of the country attractiveness in the investment side. The matters gain the special importance in the conditions of integration development within the Eurasian Economic Union as they demand coordination of legislative, methodological, methodical and a number of practical aspects of providing customs services in the united customs territory. The purpose of article is researching of customs services providing practice in conditions of the Eurasian Economic Union existence, identification of problems in this sphere and searching ways of their decision. Methods of the comparative, retrospective and system analysis, analogy, generalization and grouping were applied during article creating that has allowed to reveal key discrepancies in customs services providing in the countries of EEU and to designate the possible directions of their improvement. The results received in article cover the specified conceptual framework in the explored sphere, the designated methodological approaches to improvement of customs procedures. These approaches take into account interests of the main consumers of customs services – participants of foreign economic activity.

scholarly journals Structure of anxiety and stress as factors of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
M. Y. Sorokin ◽  
N. B. Lutova ◽  
G. E. Mazo ◽  
N. G. Neznanov ◽  
E. D. Kasyanov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Daily Intake ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Protective Behavior ◽  
Vaccine Acceptance ◽  
Psychological Reactions ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Behavior Strategies ◽  
Coronavirus Infection

Threats to life and health, the public health crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, have led to 1) accelerated development of vaccines, 2) adverse psychological reactions in the population.Aim: to identify differences in stress, anxiety, protective behavior strategies, and the socio-demographic characteristics of online survey participants, who reported opposing attitudes to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.Materials and Methods. In December 2020-January 2021, 131 respondents were assessed (men—21.4%). The Psychological Stress Scale (PSM 25), original questionnaires to evaluate pandemic concerns and protective behavior strategies with special question about COVID-19 vaccine acceptance were used. Effect sizes obtained using Cohen’s d and Cramer’s V measures were calculated for groups, the differences between which were significant (p≤0.05).Results. A 47.3% sample, having PSM-25 rates above the threshold (100 points), showed a distress reaction to the pandemic due to anxiety stress. Compared to the spring of 2020, the number of concerns associated with a noticeable stress growth (ES≥0.34) increased from two to six. Psychological distress, concerns about the possible lack of medication for daily intake, harsh social consequences and self-isolation were associated with only foreign producer vaccine acceptance (ES=0.3-0.5). Absence of excessive fears for own life, concerns about the lack of personal protective equipment and unacceptance of gloves as a measure to prevent infection (ES=0.3-0.4) were important factors associated with any producer vaccine acceptance. Men, comparing to women, were more positive in vaccine acceptance.Conclusion. The anxiety distress is an important factor in the rational attitude to coronavirus infection vaccine.

scholarly journals Theory of Social Quality as a Tool for Analyzing Social Processes: Opportunities and Scope of Adaptation

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-73
Author(s):  
Vsevolod V. Samsonov
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Social Interaction ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Social Quality ◽  
Social Quality Of Life ◽  
Methodological Approaches

The paper considers modern approaches to the study of social dynamics, which are conceptually reflected in theories of social quality of life, linking economic and statistical data with indicators reflecting integrative relationships and forms of social interaction. An attempt to assess the effectiveness of these theoretical and methodological approaches is carried out in the context of analyzing such a problem in Russian society as the increased level of emigration in recent years.

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