scholarly journals UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: DOES OKUN’S LAW MATTERS?

10.23856/3203 ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-37
Author(s):  
Oluwaseyi Adedayo Adelowokan ◽  
Adeteji Olusegun Оkutimiren
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The situation in Nigeria is rapid population growth with high level of unemployment rate. The theoretical proposition of the Okun’s law suggests an indirect relationship existing between unemployment and output growth. This study tests the validity of Okun’s law by examining the impact of youth employment generation on sustainable growth in the Nigerian economy. We modeled real gross domestic product against unemployment rate, population growth, labour and government expenditure between 1986 and 2017. The empirical findings show that there is short- and long- run relationship existing between unemployment rate, population growth and output growth in Nigeria. Hence, study recommends that the activities by the government in promoting economic growth in the country should be geared towards promoting employment for the people in other sector.

The Validity of Okun’s Law: An Empirical Evidence for Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 136-144
Author(s):  
Divine Ndubuisi Obodoechi ◽  
Charles Uchenna Onuoha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Net Foreign Assets ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Foreign Assets

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria under the Okun’s Law framework. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model approach, the ARDL Bounds Test and Cointegration Test were employed in this paper. Economic Growth was also regressed on unemployment, log of industrial output, log of net foreign assets, log of foreign direct investment and population growth so as to know the impact of these variables on output. The research findings indicated that high the Okun’s specification does not hold in the Nigeria, the impact of economic growth on unemployment is negative and insignificant. We did however find that there is a positive impact of unemployment on economic growth, meaning that the phenomena of jobless growth may be in play in the economy. The Johansen Co-integration test failed to establish evidence of long run relationship between GDP, industrial output, unemployment, foreign direct investment net foreign assets and population growth. The ECM could not be employed because the variables were integrated of different orders. It was however found there exist a significant positive relationship between the aforementioned variables and GDP except for population growth. The government should consider the Industrial Sector as a priority sector in a bid for better economic growth and development. Population control measures should also be put in play to ensure that the population does not exceed the economic carrying capacity. The government should also play an important role in abating unemployment in the economy using direct and indirect schemes and strategies.

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Oyediran, Leye Sherifdeen ◽  
Sanni, Ibrahim ◽  
Adedoyin, Lukman ◽  
Oyewole Olabode Michael
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Least Square ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Economic Development And Growth ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The need to better the lots of citizens through government expenditure has raised questions on the impact of government expenditure on the economic development and growth of nations. It is against this background that this paper examined the antecedent effect of government spending on the Nigerian economic growth. The general objective of the study is to ascertain the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria; specifically, the study examined: (i) the significance influence of government capital expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria and (ii) the significance influence of government recurrent expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria. The study employed ordinary least square (OLS) multiple regression analysis in estimating the specified model, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the dependent variable, while Capital Expenditure (CAPEXP) and Recurrent Expenditure (REXP) are the independent variables. Data between 1980 – 2013 were collected from secondary sources through the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Results showed that in Nigeria, there exist a significant relationship between the government expenditure and economic growth. The study therefore recommends instilling fiscal discipline in government expenditures, and putting in place structural mechanisms to act as surveillance on capital spending so as to boost the nation’s human and social capital.

scholarly journals The Output Gap and Youth Unemployment: An Analysis Based on Okun’s Law

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
Mindaugas Butkus ◽  
Janina Seputiene
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Equilibrium Unemployment ◽  
Age And Gender ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Gender Specific ◽  
Potential Level

The impact of economic fluctuations on the total unemployment rate is widely studied, however, with respect to age- and gender-specific unemployment, this relationship is not so well examined. We apply the gap version of Okun’s law, aiming to estimate youth unemployment rate sensitivity to output deviations from its potential level. Additionally, we aim to compare whether men or women have a higher equilibrium unemployment rate when output is at the potential level. Contrary to most studies on age- and gender-specific Okun’s coefficients, which assume that the effect of output on unemployment is homogenous, we allow a different effect to occur, depending on the output gap’s sign (positive/negative). The focus of the analysis is on 28 EU countries over the period of 2000–2018. The model is estimated by least squares dummy variable estimator (LSDV), using Prais–Winsten standard errors. We did not find evidence that higher equilibrium unemployment rates are more typical for men or for women. The estimates clearly show the equilibrium level of youth unemployment to be well above that of total unemployment, and this conclusion holds for both genders. We assess greater youth unemployment sensitivity to negative output shock, rather than to positive output shock, but when we take confidence intervals into consideration, this conclusion becomes less obvious.

scholarly journals The Impact of Tourism on the Local Economy in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chin-Hong Puah ◽  
Meng-Chang Jong ◽  
Norazirah Ayob ◽  
Shafinar Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The local and international communities play an important role in the sustainable growth of the Malaysian tourism industry. The principle of sustainable growth in the tourism industry was proposed by the World Tourism Organization (WTO) in 1988. As the tourism industry is one of the largest and fastest growing industries in Malaysia, the government has poured considerable effort into promoting this industry consistent with the objective of the Economic Transformation Program (ETP) to transform from a resource-based economy to a service-based economy. This study aimed to test the hypothesis of tourism-led growth from Malaysia’s perspective. The tourism revenue earned by the government can be used to invest in industry to further promote economic growth in Malaysia. Hence, tourist receipts and capital investment in the tourism industry are important factors that can affect the nation’s economic growth. Utilizing Malaysian data from 1995 to 2016, the study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine whether the tourism-led growth is valid in this study. Empirical findings indicated that both variables have a significant positive impact on economic growth and the hypothesis of tourism-led growth is accepted in Malaysia.

Does government expenditure reduce unemployment in Egypt?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag ◽  
Rasha Qutb
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis research seeks to empirically examine the impact of government expenditure on the unemployment rate in Egypt during the period of 1980–2017. In addition, it examines whether the distinction between discretionary and nondiscretionary items of government expenditure have a different effect on unemployment.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the Johansen cointegration test to ensure the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, then the vector error correction model (VECM) to explore the dynamic short and long-run effects.FindingsThe empirical results of this research reveal that increasing government expenditure causes an increase in the unemployment rate in the long-run. Both discretionary expenditures and nondiscretionary expenditures increase the growth of unemployment by approximately the same coefficient. The worsening impact of discretionary expenditures on unemployment is highly attributed to the compensation of employees and the government subsidies. Investment expenditure has an insignificant effect because of its minor percentage in government expenses.Practical implicationsRedirecting the unnecessary expenditures toward labor-intensive public investments is recommended, in addition to reducing domestic and foreign debts. The government has to work hard to increase the economic growth rate, as it has a vital role in reducing unemployment.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first attempts to analyze the effect of government expenditure on the unemployment rate in Egypt. Moreover, this research distinguishes between the effects related to discretionary and nondiscretionary items of government expenditure.

scholarly journals DÉFICIT FISCAL, CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO E INFLACIÓN, ¿UNA RELACIÓN EXÓGENA?

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (312) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Federico Novelo Urdanivia ◽  
Nancy Muller Durán
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Sole Source ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

<p>En este artículo analizamos la relación entre el crecimiento económico, el déficit fiscal y la inflación en México, considerando el periodo en que ha estado vigente la autonomía del Banco de México respecto del gobierno. Estimamos dos modelos CVAR para demostrar que si el gasto de gobierno es endógeno al crecimiento económico, entonces el déficit fiscal no es necesariamente la única causa de la inflación. Nuestros resultados muestran que, aún sin causalidad en el sentido de Granger, existe una relación negativa de largo plazo entre el gasto de gobierno y la inflación. De manera conjunta, ambos modelos revelan que a mayor crecimiento económico, mayor gasto fiscal y menor inflación.</p><p> </p><p align="center">FISCAL DEFICIT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION, AN EXOGENOUS RELATIONSHIP?</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong><strong></strong></p><p>This paper deals with the relationship between output growth, fiscal deficit and the rate of inflation in Mexico for the period of the independence of Banco de México. A couple of CVAR models are estimated with the aim of testing whether the government expenditure is endogenous to economic growth, in which case the fiscal deficit will not necessarily be the sole source of inflation. According to our empirical results, it is shown that there is a long-run negative relationship between government spending and inflation, without involving a Granger causality. Both models jointly reveal that the higher the economic growth rate, the larger government expenditure and the lower the rate of inflation.</p>

scholarly journals The Validity of Okun’s Law, Case of Jordan

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (28) ◽  
pp. 470
Author(s):  
Saleh Al-hosban ◽  
Mohmmad Edienat
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Economic Methods ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
The Relationship

The main aim of this study is to empirically examine ,investigate and test the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth within Jordanian economy over the period of time (1982-2016), in order to examine the validity of Okun’s law, which suggests a negative relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth, several economic methods are employed by using descriptive statistics, as well as some econometric tests, in order to analyze the variables under study . The empirical results of this study show a negative relationship between unemployment and GDP in the period 1982-2016 in Jordanian economy, which is consistent with Okun’s law. In other word, this study offered an additional empirical evidence to confirm the validity of the Okun’s law in the case of Jordan over the period 1982-2016.So any attempt to increase economic growth through some economic policies such as expansion in spending would reduce unemployment rate, where the Okun’s coefficient of GDP with respect to unemployment rate is- 0.004, such that an increase of 100 million Jordanian Dinars in the Real GDP will cause 40% decrease in the unemployment rate, which is about half percent in unemployment rate in the next. The findings of this thesis may help economists and policymakers when adapting policies in order to adjust unemployment level in the economy.

LINKAGES UNDERLYING THE INFLUENCE OF POPULATION AGEING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS TO VIETNAM

2017 ◽  
Vol 126 (5B) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hà
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Ageing Society ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper is in line with literature reviews of ageing society and economic growth to provide a deeper knowledge of whether ageing population diminishes or enhances economic growth. The first part presents the causes of negative effects of population ageing on economic growth. It reveals that lower fertility, longer life expectancy, low consumption and high public spending on health care lead to aggregate output growth decline in the long-run. The following part attempts to explain the hypotheses of why ageing can contribute to economic growth. The key issue is the human capital accumulation according to the proposition of replicated economy. Furthermore, this part indentifies the elderly factors affecting economic growth, including effective labor, knowledge transfer and change in saving patterns. Accordingly, the conceptual framework is schematically shown with linkages underlying the impact of population ageing on economic growth. This study is expected to be the first research focuses on the schematic diagram of this relationship and will be useful for planning policy reform of the government of Vietnam. Lastly, after reviewing the overview picture of population ageing in Vietnam, some policy implications are suggested to take advantage of population ageing and to diminish negative effects of population ageing on economic growth.

scholarly journals The Impact of Higher Education on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 520
Author(s):  
Paravee Maneejuk ◽  
Woraphon Yamaka
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Enrollment Rates ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzed the nonlinear impacts of education, particularly higher education, on economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries (i.e., Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines) over the period 2000–2018. The impacts of education on economic growth are assessed through various education indicators, consisting of public expenditure on tertiary education per student, enrolment rates of primary, secondary, and tertiary levels, educated workforce, and the novel indicator of unemployment rates with advanced education. This study establishes nonlinear regression models—the time-series kink regression and the panel kink regression—to investigate the kink effects of education on the individual country’s economic growth and the ASEAN-5 region, respectively. There are three main findings. Firstly, the nonlinear effects of the government expenditure per tertiary student on economic growth are confirmed for the ASEAN-5 region. However, the impacts do not follow the law of diminishing returns. Secondly, our findings reveal that an increase in unemployment of advanced educated workers can positively or negatively impact economic growth, which requires an appropriate policy to handle the negative impacts. Lastly, secondary and higher education enrollment rates can contribute to the ASEAN-5’s economic growth (both the individual and regional levels). However, the regional analysis reveals that higher education impacts become twice as strong when the enrollment rates are greater than a certain level (a kink point). Therefore, we may conclude that secondary enrollment rates positively affect economic growth; however, higher education is the key to future growth and sustainability.

scholarly journals The Impact of Government Expenditures upon Economic Growth in Post-Communist Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marius Sorin Dincă ◽  
Gheorghița Dincă
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
National Defense ◽  
East European ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
Communist Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper examines the relationship between the structure and share of government expenditure into Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the real GDP per capita. Our study uses a micro panel data for a sample made of ten countries from Central and East European, for the period 2002-2012. The empirical results of the linear regression show that the GDP/capita is positively correlated with public order and safety expenditures as well as with economic actions, while national defense and general public services are negatively correlated. The results obtained largely correspond with the ones reached by other researchers approaching the topic of the relationship between economic growth and composition of the government expenditures. The health and education expenses, though instrumental for the long-term development of any society, did not show any significant impact upon the evolution of the GDP/capita, probably as a result of the short-term available data.

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