scholarly journals APPLICATION OF THE BAYESIAN DSGE MODEL TO THE INTERNATIONAL TOURISM SECTOR: EVIDENCE FROM THAILAND’S ECONOMIC CYCLE

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
SATAWAT WANNAPAN ◽  
CHUKIAT CHAIBOONSRI ◽  
SONGSAK SRIBOONCHITTA
Keyword(s):  
International Tourism ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Tourism Sector

Grey-based model for forecasting Mauritius international tourism from different regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Medha Pirthee
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
System Models ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the trend and forecast the number of tourists from different regions of the world to Mauritius. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts two grey system models, the even model GM(1,1) and the non-homogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM), to forecast the total number of international tourism to Mauritius and its structure from different regions tourist arrivals to Mauritius for the next three years. Grey system theory models were used to account for uncertainties and the dynamism of the tourism sector environment. The two models were applied as a comparison to obtain more reliable forecasting figures. Findings The results demonstrate that both of the grey system models can be successfully applied with high accuracy for Mauritian tourism prediction, and also the number of tourist arrivals to Mauritius shows a continued augmentation for the upcoming years. Practical implications Forecasting is meaningful since the Government of Mauritius, private companies or any concerned authority can adopt the forecasting methods exposed in this paper for the development of the tourism sector through managerial and economic decision making. Originality/value Mauritius is a charming travel destination. Through this paper, it can be seen that future tourism travel to Mauritius has been successfully predicted based on previous data. Moreover, it seems that the grey system theory models have not been utilised yet as forecasting tools for the tourism sector of Mauritius as opposed to other countries such as China and Taiwan.

scholarly journals Tourism taxes and negative externalities in tourism in australia: A CGE approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 200-214
Author(s):  
Ranjith Ihalanayake
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Negative Externalities ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Australian Economy ◽  
Short Run

In this paper we analyse general equilibrium effects of an increase in a tourism tax which we hypothetically designed to internalise negative externalities of international tourism in Australia. Several simulations were carried out using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. The simulations were carried out assuming two different economic environments, the short-run and the long-run. The simulation results suggest that due to an increase in tourism taxes, the international tourism sector tends to contract while the other sectors expand. Overall, an increase in tourism taxes appears to be welfare improving in the long-run though it generates a marginal contraction in overall economic activities in the short run.

scholarly journals Estimating the economic impact of a political conflict on tourism: The case of the Catalan separatist challenge

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Álvarez-Díaz ◽  
Manuel González-Gómez ◽  
María Soledad Otero-Giráldez
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average Model ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Mediterranean Regions ◽  
Moving Average Model

As an industry, tourism tends to be extremely responsive and vulnerable to political instabilities. Recently, a political conflict occurred in Spain, a leader in international tourism. In October 2017, the regional parliament of Catalonia asserted its independence from Spain, engendering a negative impact on the tourism sector of Catalonia. The main goal of our study is to assess the economic impact of the Catalan separatist challenge on the region’s tourism sector during the last quarter of 2017. To this end, we conducted a counterfactual analysis, based on forecasts generated by a seasonal autoregressive moving average model and an artificial neural network. The forecasts allowed us to calculate the projected number of international and domestic tourist visitors that would have travelled to Catalonia, had the separatist challenge not occurred. According to our results, the Catalan tourist sector effectively forfeited close to €200 million in revenue from the international tourism market, and around €27 million in revenue from the domestic market. These amounts differ from the economic gains attained by the other Spanish Mediterranean regions that compete with Catalonia to attract tourists.

Empirical Testing of Convergence Hypothesis of International Tourism Sector

2013 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ozan Bahar ◽  
Bilge Dogan ◽  
Kurtulus Bozkurt
Keyword(s):  
International Tourism ◽  
Empirical Testing ◽  
Convergence Hypothesis ◽  
Tourism Sector

scholarly journals SCIENTIFIC-APPLIED ASPECT OF MANAGEMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN MODERN CONDITIONS

2021 ◽  
pp. 23-35
Author(s):  
Artem Mekhovych
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Applied Aspect ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Further Development

The article considers the main problems affecting the development of international tourism and predicts the further development of the situation. The growing tourist flow has contributed to the intensification of entrepreneurship in all sectors of the economy, capitalization of assets, job creation, economic and social growth. In 2019, the global tourism industry provided about 330 million jobs, equivalent to 10.3% of total employment. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented crisis in the tourism industry. The flow of tourists in the world has decreased by about 65%. In January-September 2020 alone, the number of international revenues decreased by 70%.This has resulted in the loss of $ 730 billion and more than 120 million jobs. It is noted that in modern conditions there are possible directions of development of inbound and domestic tourism, which are an important factor influencing the economy, but the weakening of external restrictions and lack of competitive service in the Ukrainian tourism industry will contribute to further development of international tourism. Those countries in which tourism occupies a significant share in GDP, are interested in attracting tourists as soon as possible and are ready to promptly implement all necessary anti-epidemic measures in the tourist infrastructure. For the Ukrainian government today, such a strategy is not a priority. Based on this, it is proved that the essence of the scientific and applied aspect of managing the development of international tourism is based on the theory of large business cycles and the theory of prediction. It was emphasized that the world crises ended sooner or later and a new round of development began. The task of mastering the forces of socio-economic life and subordinating them to the conscious, planned leadership of the state, as well as constructive and continuous social dialogue between the government and social partners, is the next practical transformation of today. The program of conscious organizational and regulatory steps should be knowledge, anticipation and action plan. When developing an anti-crisis plan to overcome the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism sector in Ukraine, it is necessary to take into account the recommendations of the Global Crisis Committee on Tourism, namely: crisis management and job preservation; support for self-employed workers; providing incentives and implementing appropriate state policy in the field of international tourism. In predicting the future development of the situation, more attention should be paid to the role of the tourism sector in the country's economy and the achievement of sustainable development goals; develop plans for preparedness for the challenges of the future and use this opportunity to move to sustainable development of tourism facilities.

scholarly journals STUDY OF RISKS IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET OF TOURIST SERVICES CAUSED BY THE PANDEMIC AND PLANNING OF MEASURES TO OVERCOME THE CRISIS BY INCREASING THE LEVEL OF PROFESSIONAL MOTIVATION OF STAFF

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Оlena Voskresenska ◽  
Anastasiia Hlynska ◽  
Viktoria Shuklina
Keyword(s):  
International Market ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Effective Work ◽  
Economic Methods ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Analysis Of Dynamics ◽  
Personalized Approach ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

The article considers the risks of the international market of tourist services in a pandemic and measures to overcome the crisis by increasing the level of professional motivation of staff. Study of losses of the tourism sector in the EU in April-May 2020. Decrease in EU revenues in June 2020. The impact of risks on the development of the international tourism industry from the implementation of anti-epidemic measures with COVID-19. Uncertainty and the predominant risks and duration of pandemic constraints are key to determining losses in this sector. The reasons for job losses in the tourism industry during the study period are investigated. The analysis of dynamics of outbound tourism for the period of introduction of quarantine restrictions is carried out. The reasons for the decline in demand for domestic tourism have been identified. The negative dynamics in the labor market of the tourism industry and its cause are determined. The expediency of Ukraine’s participation in international tourism relations has been proved. The tourism industry of Ukraine has been studied and the priority directions of its development that have developed under the current conditions have been revealed. The level of employment during the implementation of measures caused by the pandemic was studied. It is determined that an important problem is the high level of informal employment in the tourism industry. It was found that in the current situation in Ukraine at the current stage of its development, the problem of raising the level of professional motivation of staff has become important, because solving the challenges facing society is possible only if you create an appropriate motivational framework that can motivate employees to effective work. It is proved that in modern conditions in Ukraine at the present stage of its development the problem of increasing the level of professional motivation of staff has become important, because solving problems facing society is possible only if you create an appropriate motivational base that can motivate employees to work effectively. The efficiency of economic and non-economic methods of motivation of tourism workers is compared. The expediency of using a personalized approach to the choice of methods of professional motivation of employees is determined. Ways out of the crisis by increasing the level of professional motivation of staff are proposed.

scholarly journals DOES INTERNATIONAL TOURISM PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH? SOME EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 775-782
Author(s):  
Martahadi MARDHANI ◽  
◽  
M. Shabri Abd. MAJID ◽  
Abd. JAMAL ◽  
Said MUHAMMAD ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Warm Hospitality ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Realizing an increasing contribution of the tourism sector to global economies, this study intends to enrich the existing tourism literature by empirically exploring the short- and long-run dynamic causalities between tourism and economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1995 to 2017. For these purposes, cointegration, Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS), and Granger causality techniques are adopted. The study found a cointegration between tourism and economic growth, indicating the existence of a long-run relationship between the tourism sector and economic growth. In the long-run, tourism has contributed to the promotion of economic growth. Finally, both in the short- and long-run, the study found a unidirectional causal relationship running from tourism to economic growth, confirming the tourism-led growth hypothesis. To enhance Indonesia's economic growth, the tourism sector should be further promoted by making it more attractive, supported by advanced IT facilities, warm hospitality, and diversified tourism objects.

scholarly journals FORECASTING OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC CONSEQUENCES: GEOGRAPHICAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORIENTATION

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 54-61
Author(s):  
Olesia Iastremska ◽  
Oleksandra Kononova
Keyword(s):  
Global Market ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Intersectoral Cooperation ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
Domestic Tourism

Restrictions on transportation between countries because of lockdown caused by the prevalence of morbidity COVID-19 have slowed down economic activity worldwide. Therefore, in this paper, we examine and estimate the short-term economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global market situation in terms of the international tourism industry. The purpose of the study is to analyze the current economic situation of the world tourism sector, which suffered the most because of the COVID-19 pandemic, determine the main tourist flows (inbound and outbound tourism), and identify main tourism trends that characterize travel and tourism in 2020, to form practical directions for improving the tourism industry, domestic tourism in particular. This article analyzes the dynamics of international touristic destinations for the period 2019-2020, with regard to the pre-pandemic period and during the COVID-19 lockdown. Also, the dynamics of destinations of international tourists by different regions and the world in general for different types of travel limitations in 2020 are analyzed. It is detected an enhancement in percentage change of tourism destinations from July 2020 because the world began to open up to international tourism, mainly in the European Union. In this article, it is considered that the implementation of travel restrictions is clearly affected international travel. The dynamic of the international tourists’ destinations with a complete/partial closure of borders and other restrictions by region in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic are analyzed. The major trends in the tourism sector during the coronavirus crisis are highlighted. The main practical directions for the resuscitation of the tourism industry have been formed, which will have to reduce the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and created a basis for increasing the competitiveness of domestic tourism. It is determined that support for the development of the tourism industry at the central and local levels should be based on the expected preferences of tourists and the risk of using illegal resorts with the possibility of infection. The article examines the main problems of the tourism sphere of Ukraine, which arise as a result of the introduction of measures to overcome the coronavirus pandemic in the world and in Ukraine in particular. Using the experience of other countries and international recommendations, measures for intersectoral cooperation in the context of increased epidemic risks are proposed. The article reveals the peculiarities of the development of the tourist sphere of Ukraine in the conditions of increased epidemic risks. Modern tendencies of functioning of the tourist sphere of the country are investigated. The tourism sector is suffering on a global scale due to the implementation of measures to overcome the coronavirus pandemic and the uncertainty of further development of the situation. According to various scenarios, in 2020 the volume of international tourist arrivals is expected to fall by 58-78% compared to last year. According to experts, the recovery of demand to the level of 2019 will take at least two years. According to experts, the sphere of tourist services of the coronavirus crisis period will be characterized by giving consumers priority in terms of choice of shorter rest periods, a predominance of individual movement and individual accommodation, choice of health, sea, and rural tourism.

scholarly journals The International Tourism Performance Amidst Several Intervention Events: More than 20 Years of Multi Input Intervention Analysis in Bali, Jakarta, and Kepulauan Riau Provinces

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Taly Purwa ◽  
Eviyana Atmanegara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Intervention Analysis ◽  
Social Growth ◽  
Intervention Models ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Long Time

As one of the priority sectors in economic development of Indonesia, tourism is expected to be the main key in accelerating economic and social growth, hence reducing poverty. The tourism performance, especially international tourism market, is highly prone to intervention events that can reduce the number of inbound tourists and produce a negative impact on economic development of the destination country. Therefore, anticipating and mitigating various intervention events is necessary to maintain the performance of the tourism sector in Indonesia. This study investigates the magnitude and patterns of impact of several intervention events on the number of international visitor arrivals via the three main ports of entry of Indonesia, i.e. Soekarno-Hatta Airport, Ngurah Rai Airport, and Batam Port. The multi input intervention models were constructed by covering intervention events, i.e. terrorism, disease pandemic, global financial crisis, natural disaster, and government policy, occurring in a relatively long time span, more than two decades, from January 1999 to August 2020. The results show that an intervention event does not always have a significant impact on the number of international visitor arrivals at the three main ports of entry. Generally, all intervention events can lead to a decrease in the number of international visitor arrivals but with different magnitude and pattern, with the biggest and longest impact is caused by COVID-19 pandemic. The direct or non-delayed pattern of impact only appears for terrorism and natural disaster that affect the number of international visitor arrivals via Ngurah Rai Airport.

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