Population Aging Tendencies in Islamic Countries Between 1950-2020: A Geographical Assessment

In the contemporary world, population aging and the factors affecting population aging are among the topics of interest of policymakers and planners in any country. Knowledge of this situation will help to regulate and even advance substantial population programs. This study aimed to investigate the trend of the demographic aging index in Islamic countries based on the analysis of survival history. The research method was descriptive-analytical, a type of applied research, and methods of collecting documentary information. The United Nations Population Database (1950 to 2020) was used for data collection. In the present study, 57 countries were grouped and studied in ten geographical areas. The statistical method used is survival history analysis. Data were analyzed using Stata statistical methods and non-parametric methods of estimating the survival function of the Kaplan-Meier method, Nelson-Aalen estimator, and the semi-parametric model of Cox’s proportional risk. Based on the results, it was found that the fertility index has a downward trend in the ten regions of the Islamic world. In contrast, the indicators of old age (with low acceleration) and life expectancy have an increasing trend. The probability of aging has a negative relationship with the total fertility rate and a positive correlation with life expectancy. Estimates of the survival function and cumulative risk for nine of the ten geographical regions (barring the Southern European region) of the Islamic world in 2020 indicate that the probability of aging in these regions is not significantly different. Likewise, the rate of entry into the aging phase does not differ significantly between the same geographical areas. Nevertheless, with the current trend of life expectancy and the reduction of fertility, many of these countries are likely to face the aging crisis in the coming years.

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Demographic aging in the aspect of gender problems in modern Russia

POPULATION ◽

10.19181/population.2020.23.2.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 23 (2) ◽

pp. 5-13

Author(s):

Valentina G. Dobrokhleb

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Population Aging ◽

Important Change ◽

Low Fertility ◽

Healthy Life ◽

Second Stage ◽

Demographic Dynamics ◽

Age Related ◽

Demographic Aging ◽

Current Century

The purpose of the research is to identify the features of demographic aging in terms of gender problems in modern Russia. The most significant demographic transformation of the current century is the process of population aging. It is established that the distinctive characteristics of the demographic dynamics in our country are: changing age structure of the population against the background of low fertility connected with the second stage of depopulation in Russia; a significant lagging behind not only economically developed but also several developing countries in life expectancy for both women and men; prevailing demographic asymmetry by gender; low indicators of healthy life expectancy, which are calculated without taking into account the gender component; burden of age-related diseases accumulated by the age of 65. It is shown that in Russia the number of elderly and old women exceeds the number of their male coevals by more than 15 million. Social, technological, and demographic transformations impact the dynamics of social roles. The most important change is the growth of women in paid work throughout the world, including in Russia. And women of retirement age have a high risk of social isolation. For many Russian pensioners with low per capita income and no savings the main strategy is that of survival. So now the most topical problem is changing the stereotype of women’s old age, associated with such concepts as lack of development, untidy appearance of a person without gender and desires that causes physical rejection.

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New concept of age(ing): Prospective age

Stanovnistvo ◽

10.2298/stnv1201045d ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 50 (1) ◽

pp. 45-68 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mirjana Devedzic ◽

Jelena Stojilkovic

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Old Age ◽

Population Aging ◽

The Elderly ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Life Tables ◽

Dependency Ratio ◽

Age Dependency ◽

Demographic Aging ◽

Age Dependency Ratio

While the last century was the century of world population growth, according to demographers, the XXI century will be century of population aging. Statistics undoubtedly show that number of elderly will continue it?s growth in the future. If old age is seen as period of life with reduced physical and mental capabilities and increased disability, and demographic aging as increase of dependent population, trends are quite disturbing, at least in certain societal segments. In developed countries, this population category is no longer treated as passive or as a "burden of society" and efforts are made for better social inclusion of older people. In contrast to growing interest in this phenomenon, the concepts that define the aging of the population remained stagnant. The aim of this paper is to introduce into domestic literature the term "prospective age" as a dynamic category which is more affected with socio-historical conditions, not only with biological as traditional definition of aging suggested. Papers written by Sanderson and Scherbov offer new methodological options for study of population aging, because it takes into account the biometric rather than chronological approach. Calculation of prospective years is a simple operation that requires pair of the same number of remained life expectancy from life tables for two different periods (the year of concern is index, and the one we are comparing with is standard year), so that phrase "40s is the new 30s" or "70s the new 60s" gets scientific foundation. Average remaining years of life represent a realistic indicator suggesting increased capacity, activity and vitality of individuals, which is due to accepted demographic parameters still considered old. ?Prospective threshold? is defined as the age when life expectancy falls below 15 years (it is subjective choice made by Sanderson and Scherbov, which is also used in this paper) and during the elaboration of these ideas three demographic indicators was constructed, redefined more precisely, based on prospective age: (prospective) share of the elderly, (prospective) median age and (prospective) old age dependency ratio. With respect to the remaining years of life in the calculation of demographic aging, world?s population will be in rejuvenation process by 2035, longer and more intense than defined by proportion of the elderly. Prospective approach found that longer life expectancy in developing countries is not only a result of the decrease in infant and child mortality, but also the decrease of the old population mortality. Data used in this paper are from period life tables and censuses, for period 1953-2010. Prospective age threshold in Serbia was always higher than retrospective age (60,17 in 1953 .and 63,15 in 2010. for total population) , or the proportion of people with a life expectancy less than 15 years has consistently been higher than the share of people older than 65 years (17.86% vs. 16.92% in 2010). According to prospective criteria, differences between men and women almost do not existent, so that it calls into question the widely accepted feminization of the elderly. The same conclusion stands when we discuss (prospective) median age, population is older using prospective (47,15 years) than traditional (41.41) indicator in 2010, also, compared with rest of the region or with more developed countries, prospective median age is higher in Serbia. Also, prospective old-age dependency ratio is higher than conventional one during analyzed period. Prospective concept and amendments are necessary in public policy, especially pension and health care system, because in combination with traditional approaches can create more justified distribution for older and younger generations.

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Changing Educational Gradients in Life Expectancy With and Without Disease Among U.S. Older Adults From 2000 to 2010

Innovation in Aging ◽

10.1093/geroni/igaa057.1630 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. 505-505

Author(s):

Matthew Farina ◽

Phillip Cantu ◽

Mark Hayward

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Life Expectancy ◽

Chronic Diseases ◽

Population Aging ◽

Good Health ◽

Vital Statistics ◽

Healthy Life Expectancy ◽

Healthy Life ◽

Education Group ◽

Education Groups

Abstract Recent research has documented increasing education inequality in life expectancy among U.S. adults; however, much is unknown about other health status changes. The objective of study is to assess how healthy and unhealthy life expectancies, as classified by common chronic diseases, has changed for older adults across education groups. Data come from the Health and Retirement Study and National Vital Statistics. We created prevalence-based life tables using the Sullivan method to assess sex-specific life expectancies for stroke, heart disease, cancer, and arthritis by education group. In general, unhealthy life expectancy increased with each condition across education groups. However, the increases in unhealthy life expectancy varied greatly. While stroke increased by half a year across education groups, life expectancy with diabetes increased by 3 to 4 years. In contrast, the evidence for healthy life expectancy provides mixed results. Across chronic diseases, healthy life expectancy decreased by 1 to 3 years for respondents without a 4-year degree. Conversely, healthy life expectancy increased for the college educated by .5 to 3 years. While previous research shows increases in life expectancy for the most educated, trends in life expectancy with chronic conditions is less positive: not all additional years are in lived in good health. In addition to documenting life expectancy changes across education groups, research assessing health of older adults should consider the changing inequality across a variety of health conditions, which will have broad implications for population aging and policy intervention.

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Impact of Population Aging on Carbon Emission in China: A Panel Data Analysis

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10072458 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 2458 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Weidong Li ◽

Xin Qi ◽

Xiaojun Zhao

Keyword(s):

Panel Data ◽

Carbon Emission ◽

Population Aging ◽

Panel Data Analysis ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Modern Society ◽

Eastern Region ◽

Low Carbon ◽

Stirpat Model ◽

The Impact

The impact of population structure on carbon emission has always been a key area of research in modern society. In this paper, we propose a new expanded STIRPAT model and panel co-integration method to analyze the relationship between population aging and carbon emission, based on the provincial panel data in China from 1999 to 2014. Empirical results show that there exists a significant inverted U-shaped curve between the population aging and carbon emission. There also exist regional discrepancies, where the impact of the population aging on carbon emission in the eastern region is significantly positive. By contrast, a negative relationship arises in the central and western regions. Finally, several suggestions for low carbon development are provided.

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Global improvements in Years of Good Life since 1950

10.1553/populationyearbook2021.res1.2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Erich Striessnig ◽

Claudia Reiter ◽

Anna Dimitrova

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Good Life ◽

Composite Index ◽

Well Being ◽

Gdp Per Capita ◽

World Population ◽

Aggregate Level ◽

Recent Past ◽

Cognitive Limitations ◽

Per Capita

Human well-being at the national aggregate level is typically measured by GDP per capita, life expectancy or a composite index such as the HDI. A more recent alternative is the Years of Good Life (YoGL) indicator presented by Lutz et al. (2018; 2021). YoGL represents a refinement of life expectancy in which only those person-years in a life table are counted that are spent free from material (1), physical (2) or cognitive limitations (3), while being subjectively perceived as satisfying (4). In this article, we present the reconstruction of YoGL to 1950 for 140 countries. Since life expectancy – as reported by the UN World Population Prospects in fiveyearly steps – forms the basis of our reconstruction, the presented dataset is also available on a five-yearly basis. In addition, like life expectancy, YoGL can be flexibly calculated for different sub-populations. Hence, we present separate YoGL estimates for women and men. Due to a lack of data, only the material dimension can be reconstructed based directly on empirical inputs since 1950. The remaining dimensions are modelled based on information from the more recent past.

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The Organization of the Islamic Cooperation and the Conflict in Southern Thailand

10.26686/wgtn.16999402.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Paoyee Waesahmae

Keyword(s):

Direct Role ◽

Islamic World ◽

Current Wave ◽

Southern Thailand ◽

Islamic Countries ◽

Muslim Minorities ◽

Near Future ◽

Religious Elements

<p>The current wave of insurgency in the southern provinces of Thailand, where the majority of population are Muslim, sparked up in 2004 but shows no sign of ending in the near future. The insurgency caused by the conflict in the region which, along the time, has risen and fallen depending on surrounding circumstances. Given the scale and intensity of the conflict, it has increasingly attracted the attention of the outside world especially the Islamic world since the conflict is believed to be connected with religious elements. Despite of this, no specific Islamic countries have played a direct role in intervention in the conflict. The only intervention involved in the conflict was carried out by the OIC, a representative of 57 Islamic countries. This essay attempts to examine the intervention of the OIC into the conflict in the southern provinces of Thailand in the name of Islamic countries in order to protect the rights of Muslim minorities as it claims and will explore the consequences of the tension between the OIC’s mission to uphold these rights and sovereign states.</p>

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Social Assistance in the Conditions of Population Aging: Comparative Analysis of Domestic and Foreign Experience

Social’naya politika i sociologiya ◽

10.17922/2071-3665-2021-20-3-165-172 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (3) ◽

pp. 165-172

Author(s):

Mikhail V. Firsov, ◽

◽

Margarita V. Vdovina ◽

Keyword(s):

Twentieth Century ◽

Comparative Analysis ◽

Chronic Diseases ◽

Social Services ◽

Population Aging ◽

Social Assistance ◽

The Elderly ◽

Support Provision ◽

Homes For The Elderly ◽

Demographic Aging

Since the second half of the twentieth century, humanity has increasingly begun to face the contradictory consequences of population aging. In our country, various practices of social assistance to aging citizens have also begun to expand, primarily related to their medical, social and material support, provision of social services at home, which were an alternative to living and servicing in homes for the elderly and disabled. It was during these years that the system of social assistance to the older generation (first of all, the lonely, those with chronic diseases and those in need of outside help), which is currently functioning, was laid. However, the domestic model was quite different from the foreign ones. Nevertheless, it made it possible to support various groups of people of late age and to develop certain socio-political approaches in the context of demographic aging.

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Adjustment of Legal Retirement Age in Chinese Mainland

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.422.684 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 422 ◽

pp. 684-687

Author(s):

Shi Bin Song ◽

Qi Song ◽

Xiao Jun Xue ◽

Yun Wan

Keyword(s):

Labor Market ◽

Life Expectancy ◽

Population Aging ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Chinese Mainland ◽

Retirement Age ◽

Demographic Dividend ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Per Capita ◽

Legal Retirement Age

With the coming rush of population aging and the termination of the demographic dividend, the question on the extension of the legal retirement age is becoming a hot topic in the community. This paper analyzes factors affecting retirement age，such　as demographic dividend, life expectancy, years of education per capita, supply and demand situation in labor market. From these factors, reasonable quantitative reference standards can be introduced.

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Demographic forecasting of population projection in Greece: A Bayesian probabilistic study

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckz186.387 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽

Author(s):

D Lamnisos ◽

K Giannakou ◽

T Siligari

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Life Expectancy ◽

Total Fertility Rate ◽

Total Population ◽

Fertility Rate ◽

Replacement Level ◽

Demographic Aging ◽

The Social ◽

Support Ratio

Abstract Background Demographic aging is an emerging issue in Greece, characterized by low fertility and increased life expectancy. Undoubtedly, demographic aging is a challenge for public health not only due to the financing of public pensions, but also for the increasing utilization of health care. Methods The total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth are projected probabilistically using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations population data for Greece from the period of 1950 to 2015. These are then converted to age-specific mortality rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of total population by sex and age groups, total fertility rate (TFR), female and male life expectancies at birth and potential support ratio PSR (persons aged 20-64 per person 65+) by the year 2100. Results The total population in Greece in 1950 was around 7.5 million, increasing to 11 million based on the 2011 population census but is projected to decline to 7.5 million at 2100. TFR has followed a strong downward trend with 1.4 children per woman in 2005-2010 and is projected to have a slight increase to 1.6 and 1.8 children per woman for 2050 and 2100 with all values being below the replacement-level fertility. Life expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 88 years for women in 2050, and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100. PSR is expected to decline dramatically from 3 in 2011 to approximately 1.5 in 2050 and 2100. Conclusions Over the years, Greece has lost its youthful structure and has acquired the characteristics of an aging population, reflecting the population distribution of Western countries. Demographic aging is harmful for the economic growth, the social security system, the social assistance, and it is closely linked to national defense and public health. A long-term multidimensional program is recommended to confront the demographic issue based on the previous international experience. Key messages Total fertility rate will be below replacement level and potential support ratio will decline dramatically. A long-term multidimensional program needs to be developed to address the demographic aging.

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