scholarly journals Unemployment, Labor Costs, and Recessions: Implications for the Inflation Outlook

Author(s):  
Kyle Fee ◽  
Mark E. Schweitzer

Economists have been arguing about the connection between unemployment and inflation for decades. Critics claim that the connection is unreliable and leads policymakers astray, while others argue that the relationship is useful for forecasting. We examine the more direct connections between elevated unemployment levels and the rate of increase in wage and labor costs, more generally. We find that wage and labor cost growth has declined markedly following recent recessions. It has again declined sharply in the most recent recession. We also find that compensation typically remains subdued during the initial phases of recent recoveries. This is again the case in the current recovery, making labor costs a significant restraining force on inflation going forward.

2019 ◽  
Vol 79 (5) ◽  
pp. 646-665
Author(s):  
Jing Yi ◽  
Jennifer Ifft

Purpose Dairy farms, along with livestock and specialty crop farms, face a tight labor supply and increasing labor costs. To overcome the challenging labor market, farm managers can increase labor-use efficiency through both human resource and capital investments. However, little is known about the relationship between such investments and farm profitability. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between dairy farm financial performance and labor-use efficiency, as measured by labor productivity (milk sold per worker equivalent); labor costs (hired labor cost per unit of milk sold and hired labor cost per worker); and investment in labor-saving equipment. Design/methodology/approach Cluster analysis is applied to partition dairy farms into three performance categories (high/middle/low), based on farms’ rate of return on equity, asset turnover ratios and net dairy income per hundredweight of milk. Next, the annual financial rank is fitted into both random- and farm-level fixed-effects ordered logit and linear models to estimate the relationship between dairy farms’ financial performance and labor-use efficiency. This study also investigates the implications of using a single financial indicator as a measure of financial performance, which is the dominant approach in literature. Findings The study finds that greater labor productivity and cost efficiency (as measured by hired labor cost per unit of milk sold) are associated with better farm financial performance. No statistically significant relationship is found between farm financial performance and both hired labor cost per worker and advance milking systems (a proxy of capital investment in labor-saving technology). Future studies would benefit from better measurements of labor-saving technology. This study also demonstrates inconsistency in regression results when individual financial variables are used as a measure of financial performance. The greater labor-use efficiency on high-performing farms may be a combination of hiring more-skilled workers and managerial strategies of reducing unnecessary labor activities. The results emphasize the importance of managerial strategies that improve overall labor-use efficiency, instead of simply minimizing total labor expenses or labor cost per worker. Originality/value This study examines the importance of labor productivity and labor cost efficiency for dairy farm management. It also develops a novel approach which brings a more comprehensive financial performance evaluation into regression models. Furthermore, this study explicitly demonstrates the potential for inconsistent results when using individual financial variable as a measure of financial performance, which is the dominant measurement of financial performance in farm management studies.


Author(s):  
Gul'fira Bychkova

The possibility of managing labor costs through the relationship between the wage Fund, revenue and profit from sales is investigated


2022 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Rennó Castro ◽  
Geraldo Sant’Ana de Camargo Barros

Abstract This study analyzes the interactions between per worker labor income (PWLI), labor productivity, real unit labor costs, and the relationship between relevant employee (IPCA) and employers (GDP deflators) prices, specifically focusing on Brazilian agrobusiness. For that purpose, labor productivities of the entire agrobusiness sector and its segments were calculated from 2004 through 2015. We found that the gap between agrobusiness sector deflators and the IPCA did not play a preponderant role to mitigate the effect of PWLI growth of 3.81% annually on real unit labor cost (CURT), which only increased 0.21% annually. In turn, CURT was contained by productivity gains, boosted mainly by agriculture. Without this productivity growth, CURT would have increased at 3.7% annually, thus making unviable the observed simultaneous gains for employers and employees in the Brazilian agrobusiness sector. The result for the primary agrobusiness segment should be highlighted. Even with an annual increase of 4.07% in PWLI, the 7.24% annual growth in productivity implied on an average annual reduction in CURT (-2.56%); without this significant productivity growth, the same increase in PWLI would have boosted CURT by 4.7% annually.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 935-945
Author(s):  
I.A. Zaikova

Subject. The working time of workers at any stage of economic development is a value reflecting the level of labor productivity. Any progress in productivity contributes to changes in the volume of labor costs and the number of employed. Depending on the relationship between the total volume of labor costs and the number of employed, the duration of working time per one worker may change (it may increase, decrease, or remain unchanged). Objectives. The study aims to confirm the importance of such a macroeconomic indicator as the number of employed in varying working hours. Methods. The study rests on the comparative analysis of countries with developed economies based on some indicators like dynamics of the working time fund, dynamics of the number of employed, average number of hours worked during the year per employee, etc. The analyzed timespan is 25 years (from 1991 to 2016). Results. The comparative analysis revealed that in the non-production sphere and the economy as a whole the macroeconomic determinants correlate so that the length of working time per worker reduces. When considering the analysis results for the manufacturing sector, no single trend was identified. Conclusions. One of the key factors affecting the change in working hours is the number of employed. The relationship between the working time fund and the number of employed directly determines the dynamics of working time per worker.


2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 218-219
Author(s):  
Andres Fernando T Russi ◽  
Mike D Tokach ◽  
Jason C Woodworth ◽  
Joel M DeRouchey ◽  
Robert D Goodband ◽  
...  

Abstract The swine industry has been constantly evolving to select animals with improved performance traits and to minimize variation in body weight (BW) in order to meet packer specifications. Therefore, understanding variation presents an opportunity for producers to find strategies that could help reduce, manage, or deal with variation of pigs in a barn. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted by collecting data from multiple studies and available data sets in order to develop prediction equations for coefficient of variation (CV) and standard deviation (SD) as a function of BW. Information regarding BW variation from 16 papers was recorded to provide approximately 204 data points. Together, these data included 117,268 individually weighed pigs with a sample size that ranged from 104 to 4,108 pigs. A random-effects model with study used as a random effect was developed. Observations were weighted using sample size as an estimate for precision on the analysis, where larger data sets accounted for increased accuracy in the model. Regression equations were developed using the nlme package of R to determine the relationship between BW and its variation. Polynomial regression analysis was conducted separately for each variation measurement. When CV was reported in the data set, SD was calculated and vice versa. The resulting prediction equations were: CV (%) = 20.04 – 0.135 × (BW) + 0.00043 × (BW)2, R2=0.79; SD = 0.41 + 0.150 × (BW) - 0.00041 × (BW)2, R2 = 0.95. These equations suggest that there is evidence for a decreasing quadratic relationship between mean CV of a population and BW of pigs whereby the rate of decrease is smaller as mean pig BW increases from birth to market. Conversely, the rate of increase of SD of a population of pigs is smaller as mean pig BW increases from birth to market.


Author(s):  
Sven-Olov Daunfeldt ◽  
Anton Gidehag ◽  
Niklas Rudholm

AbstractOne way for policymakers to reduce labor costs and stimulate the recruitment of marginalized groups of labor in a highly unionized economy is to lower payroll taxes. However, the efficiency of this policy instrument has been questioned, and previous evaluations have mostly found small employment effects for such reforms. We investigate the effects of a payroll tax cut in Sweden that decreased firms’ labor costs in relation to the number of young employees that they had employed when the reform was implemented in 2007. We find that most firms received small labor cost savings as a result of the reform, but those that received larger cost savings increased their number of employees significantly more than firms that received no, or minor, labor cost savings. Our findings also suggest that the payroll tax cut increased the total wages paid to incumbent workers, but the wage effect was too small to offset the positive extensive-margin employment effect of the reform. In total, we find that the Swedish payroll tax reform created 18,100 jobs over the period 2006–2008; most of these jobs were within the targeted group of young employees.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. e59962
Author(s):  
Ana Beatriz Da Costa Mangueira ◽  
Filipe Reis Melo

Este artigo analisa como a Espanha securitizou fluxos migratórios irregulares do Norte da África na primeira década dos anos 2000. Esse processo realizou-se com medidas de segurança nas fronteiras, especialmente nas regiões de Ceuta e Melila. Por outro lado, os governos espanhóis ao longo daquela década reavivaram acordos firmados com os africanos ainda nos anos 1990 para readmissão de migrantes e para admissão de indivíduos no mercado de trabalho espanhol. A relação entre Espanha e países africanos foi contraditória, pois enquanto se buscava conter as migrações indesejadas, pretendia-se usar a mão de obra estrangeira para reduzir os custos trabalhistas. Essas contradições são influenciadas pela presença da União Europeia que delibera e atua na temática de migrações na região, um assunto que tem sido um dos principais interesses da agenda de segurança europeia nos últimos anos. Palavras-Chave: Espanha. Fluxos migratórios. Norte da África. ABSTRACTThis paper analyses how Spain securitized irregular migratory flows from North Africa in the 2000s first decade. This process was carried out by security actions at the borders, specially at Ceuta and Melilla regions. On other hand, over the years of 2000s Spanish governments renewed agreements that were signed with Africans in the 1990s to foster readmission of migrants and promote the admission of individuals to the Spanish labor market. Furthermore, the relationship between Spain and African countries was inconsistent due to the fact that at the moment which the contention of unwanted migration was the focus, it was intended to use foreign labor to reduce labor costs. These contradictions are influenced by the presence of the European Union, which deliberates and acts on the issue of migration in the region, a subject that has been one of the main interests of the European security agenda in recent years. Keywords: Spain. Migration flows. North Africa. Recebido em: 24 mai. 2021 | Aceito em: 01 out. 2021.


Author(s):  
Л. Шахова ◽  
L. Shakhova ◽  
Е. Черноситова ◽  
E. Chernositova ◽  
Л. Щелокова ◽  
...  

The fluidity of cement powder has a significant impact on the duration and labor costs in the process of transportation and shipment of cement. This determines the relevance of the task of finding mechanisms to control this parameter. During the production process, the fluidity of the cement powder is formed depending on the properties of the initial cement charge, the requirements for the thinness of the grinding to the finished product, the hardware design and the conditions of the process. In turn, the fluidity of cement affects the grinding process and the productivity of the mill. The rheological characteristics of the cement binder change over time depending on the physical properties of the material, environmental conditions and the equipment used for its storage. The reasons for the deterioration of the flow of cement powder is still not fully studied. The article is devoted to the study of the main factors affecting the fluidity of cement. The results of the statistical analysis of cement fluidity depending on the thinness of cement grinding (on the residue on the sieve №008 and the specific surface area by Blaine method) humidity, bulk weight and weight in the most compacted state. In addition, the relationship of production factors and cement fluidity is considered. Correlation and regression analysis shows that the fluidity is affected by a variable factor, which is not yet quantified.


2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Abdulrahman Taresh Abdullah A.

This study empirically examines the causal relationship between population growth and economic growth, aswell as to analyze the influence of capital, labor, population growth and human resources on economic growth,using the annual data of ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand), over theperiod of 1980-2013. The method used in this study is the Granger Causality and Vector Error CorrectionModel (VECM). VECM is used because the data is stationary at first difference and there is cointegrationbetween variables.From the results estimation which is conducted, it is concluded that, overall, the relationship betweenpopulation growth and economic growth in ASEAN-5 is strong and negative flow from economic growth topopulation growth. This study supports the opinion of theoretical and empirical claims; as income increases,households value quality over quantity of children. Concurrently, population can be a stimulus for economicgrowth through the realization of favorable economies of scale induced by low labor costs, enhancingaggregate demand for goods and services and promoting human capital, and improved efficiency.


Author(s):  
Ozlem Onaran ◽  
Nurhan Yenturk

The aim of this study is to shed light on the movements of the mark-up rate for the case of Turkey following trade liberalization. For this purpose, first the relationship between labor and non-labor costs that lies behind the movements of the mark-up rates is analyzed, and second, the effect of trade liberalization on mark-up rates is tested. The trade-off between labor and non-labor costs is analyzed based on a model, which assumes that prices are set by a mark-up over average variable costs. The paper also tests the effect of international trade on the mark-up rate and the effect of the exchange rate via its effect on competitiveness and input costs using the panel data for the sub-sectors of private manufacturing industry. The most striking result of this analysis is the absence of any strong link between foreign trade and mark-up rates.


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