scholarly journals THE USE OF PEA GENE POOL FOR BREEDING OF MODERN VARIETIES OF PEAS IN WESTERN SIBERIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 36-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. Temirov
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Plant Genetic Resources ◽  
Maximum Yield ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Breeding Value ◽  
Modern Varieties

The work presents the results of evaluation of 150 varieties of sowing peas (Pisum Sativum L.) of different ecological and geographical origin that have not lost their breeding value in recent years by a number of economically valuable signs from the world collection of The N.I. Vavilov All Russian Institute of Plant Genetic Resources. The purpose of the research was to identify promising varieties of sowing peas from the collection to create modern varieties of peas for grain use. The experiment was conducted in 2014–2016. on leached chernozem of the northern foreststeppe of Western Siberia. The weather conditions during the years of research were contrasting. So, in May and July of 2014, precipitation was above the average rainfall, which caused the formation of tall pea plants, especially in the varieties of leafy morphotype. In 2015, the air temperature was above the long-term average annual rate with uneven precipitation. In 2016, the air temperature in May generally corresponded to the long-term average annual rates, but August was characterized by precipitation deficit. The maximum yield for the years of research was noted in the varieties of leafy morphotype group: Bogatyr (625 g/m2), Kemchug (510 g/m2), and the group with the modified morphotype: Az-318 and Orel (480 g/ m2). Varieties with the modified morphotype Az-318, Sprut-2, Orel, Demos, Yamal proved to be highly resistant to lodging and easy to harvest, due to being adapted to the soil and climatic conditions of Western Siberia. The correlation analysis conducted in 2016 revealed a reliable positive relationship (r = 0.63) between the mass of 1000 grains and the yield. A closer positive relationship was found during all the years of the study between the yield and the number of peapods on the plant (r = 0.48–0.67). A negative dependence was observed between the length of the plant and the yield.

Influence of Climatic Conditions on Western Siberian Forest Fires

2020 ◽  
pp. 269-293
Author(s):  
Valentina Petrovna Gorbatenko ◽  
Marina Alexandrovna Volkova ◽  
Olga Vladimirovna Nosyreva ◽  
George Georgievich Zhuravlev ◽  
Irina Valerievna Kuzhevskaia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
General Regularity ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Long Term Variations

Current climate changes in Russia are attended by the increase in frequency of dangerous weather events. This chapter researches long-term variations of the dangerous weather's events on Western Siberia and to reveal general regularity, which can be associated with forest fires. The researches have been carried out for the territories of southeast of Western Siberia. The duration of the fire season increases due to climate change. This is due both to the earlier snowfall and the onset of the phenological spring, and to the increase in the duration of the thunderstorm period. Thunderstorms in Siberia are a much more frequent cause of forest fires (28%) than in other territories. Wildfire frequency is correlated with air temperature and drought anomalies.

scholarly journals Adaptive phenological response of autochthonous grape varieties to changes in weather and climatic conditions in the South of Russia

2020 ◽  
pp. 210-215
Author(s):  
Валерий Семенович Петров ◽  
Анна Александровна Марморштейн ◽  
Анна Александровна Лукьянова ◽  
Александр Григорьевич Коваленко ◽  
Владимир Александрович Волынкин
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiment ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Adaptive Response ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Stationary Field ◽  
The South ◽  
Beginning Of Flowering ◽  
Grape Varieties

В длительном стационарном полевом опыте на ампелографической коллекции (г.-к. Анапа) установлен тренд устойчивого влияния изменений погодных условий юга России на адаптивную фенологическую реакцию автохтонных сортов винограда Плечистик, Сибирьковый, Цимлянский черный. При повышении температуры воздуха на 1,2 - 5,0 °С период от распускания почек до полной физиологической зрелости ягод винограда у сорта Плечистик уменьшился на 22, Сибирьковый - 30, Цимлянский черный - 25 дней. Уменьшение произошло за счет смещения сроков и продолжительности фаз вегетаций. У сорта Плечистик вегетация от начала распускания глазков до начала цветения уменьшилась на 10, от начала цветения до начала созревания ягод на 11, от начала созревания до полной физиологической зрелости ягод на 23 дня, у сорта Сибирьковый соответственно на 8, 9 и 13 дней, у сорта Цимлянский черный на 7, 5 и 23 дня. Начало распускания глазков сместилось в более поздние сроки у сорта Плечистик на 1 день, Сибирьковый на 5 дней, Цимлянский черный на 2 дня. Начало цветения сместилось в ранние сроки у сорта Плечистик на 9 дней, Сибирьковый на 3 дня, Цимлянский черный на 5 дней. Начало созревания ягод винограда у сорта Плечистик сдвинулось на 1 день в поздний срок, Сибирьковый на 12 дней и Цимлянский черный на 3 дня в ранние сроки. Полная физиологическая зрелость ягод сместилась в ранние сроки у сорта Плечистик на 21 день, Сибирьковый на 25 дней и Цимлянский черный на 23 дня. При положительной адаптивной реакции на повышение температуры воздуха у сортов сохранились без изменений ростовые и продукционные процессы. In a long-term stationary field experiment on the ampelographic collection (Anapa), a trend for the stable influence of changes in weather conditions in the South of Russia on the adaptive phenological reaction of autochthonous grape varieties ‘Pletchistik’, ‘Sibirkovy’, ‘Tsimlyansky Cherny’ was established. With an increase in air temperature by 1.2 - 5.0 °С, the period from budbreak to physiological ripeness of the ‘Pletchistik’ variety decreased by 22, ‘Sibirkovy’ - 30, ‘Tsimlyansky Cherny’ - 25 days. The decrease was due to the shift in the timing and duration of vegetative stages. For ‘Pletchistik’ variety, the period from budbreak to flowering decreased by 10, from flowering to veraison by 11, from veraison to physiological ripeness by 23 days; for ‘Sibirkovy’ variety, by 8, 9 and 13 days respectively; for the variety ‘Tsimlyansky Cherny’ by 7, 5 and 23 days. The beginning of budbreak shifted to later dates: for ‘Pletchistik’ variety by 1 day, for ‘Sibirkovy’ by 5 days, for ‘Tsimlyansky Cherny’ by 2 days. The beginning of flowering shifted to earlier dates: for ‘Pletchistik’ variety by 9 days, for ‘Sibirkovy’ by 3 days, for ‘Tsimlyansky Cherny’ by 5 days. The beginning of veraison for ‘Pletchistik’ variety shifted by 1 day later, for ‘Sibirkovy’ by 12 days and for ‘Tsimlyansky Cherny’ by 3 days earlier. The beginning of full physiological ripeness shifted earlier for all varieties: ‘Pletchistik’ by 21 days, ‘Sibirkovy’ by 25 days and ‘Tsimlyansky Cherny’ by 23 days. With a positive adaptive response to an increase in air temperature, the growth and productional processes of varieties remained without changes.

scholarly journals Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk Region

2017 ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
V. V. Hrynchak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Average Annual Temperature

The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the "Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)" written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov. The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay's second page. Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region. The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing. We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation. The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons' dates and change of seasons' duration. We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified. Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.

scholarly journals Identification of solar radiation effect on climatic indicators of the territory of Ukraine

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Regime ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Statistical Dependence ◽  
Physical Processes

Formulation of the problem. Understanding that solar energy is the main source of the majority of biological, chemical and physical processes on Earth, investigation of its influence on different climatic fields allows us to define the features of its space and hour fluctuations. To define radiation and temperature regime of the territory it is necessary to determine climatic features of the spreading surface, which absorbs and will transform solar energy. Considering the fact that modern climatic changes and their consequences cover all components of the system, today there is a problem of their further study for comprehension of atmospheric processes, modeling weather conditions on different territories depending on the properties. The purpose of the article is to determine interrelations between indexes of solar radiation (the Wolf's number) and air temperature, atmospheric pressure on the territory of Ukraine during 1965-2015, their change in space and time. Methods. Correlative method is one of the main methods of a statistical analysis which allows us to receive correlation coefficients of solar radiation variability indexes, air temperature, atmospheric pressure on the territory of the research. This technique estimates the extent of solar radiation influence on temperature regime of the territory and distribution of atmospheric pressure. Results. Coefficients of correlation, which characterize variability of solar radiation indexes, air temperature and atmospheric pressure on the explored territory have been received by means of statistical correlation analysis method. This technique allows us to estimate the degree and nature of solar radiation influence on a temperature regime of the territory and distribution of atmospheric pressure. It has been defined that direct correlative connection between indexes of solar radiation is characteristic of air temperature and atmospheric pressure fields. Significant statistical dependence between incoming solar radiation on the territory of Ukraine and atmospheric pressure has been noted during the spring and autumn periods mainly at the majority of stations. Between indexes of solar radiation and air temperature the inverse correlative connection in winter will be transformed to a direct connection during the spring and summer periods. Scientific novelty and practical significance. Physical processes, which happen in the atmosphere, are characterized by complex interrelations. For further research it is important to define solar radiation value and the extent of influence on climatic conditions.

scholarly journals The role of organic farming in the formation of the harvest and the nutrition value of potatoes on unused arable lands and fallow lands of Altay Region (Western Siberia)

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 388-392
Author(s):  
D. A. Durnikin ◽  
O. Y. Voronkova ◽  
V. A. Kundius ◽  
L. I. Petrova
Keyword(s):  
Organic Farming ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mineral Fertilizers ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
Altai Region ◽  
Fallow Lands

<p>In the article, a comprehensive evaluation of the role of organic farming in the formation of the crop and the nutritional value of perspective varieties cultivated within the climatic zone of Western Siberia is considered. The most favorable conditions for growing potatoes in the Altai Region of the Western Siberia are compared with other regions of Russia and those of foreign countries.<br />In the southern and southeastern regions of the Altai region, where the formation of tubers coincides with the hot period of the first half of summer, the high soil temperature negatively affects the eyes of the tubers. Therefore, the seed material here rapidly degenerates. To avoid this, summer potatoes are planted. Irrigation ensures high and stable potato yields irrespective of weather conditions. Moisture content of soil during the period from planting potatoes to shoots should be maintained at the level of 65-70 per cent, in the budding and flowering phases - of 75-85 per cent and during the period from the beginning of wilting of potato tops – of 60-65 per cent. The number of irrigations, their terms and standards, are determined by taking into account soil-climatic conditions, the phase of plant development and the application area of a crop.<br />The most effective irrigation method is sprinkling. The irrigation norm ranges from 500 to 800 m3 per hectare. On irrigated lands, plowing of potato fields is carried out necessarily with a soil cultivator, preventing the formation of a plow pan. Rows are located across the slope, or angle-wise. After watering space between rows are loosened (on heavy soils also before watering). During irrigation process it is necessary to apply higher quantities of organic and mineral fertilizers and to carry out a set of measures to control weeds, pests and diseases of potatoes.<br /><br /></p>

The Influence of Weather On Incubation Scheduling of the White-Rumped Sandpiper (Calidris Fuscicollis): a Uniparental Incubator in a Cold Environment

Behaviour ◽  
1985 ◽  
Vol 95 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 261-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert D. Montgomerie ◽  
Ralph V. Cantar
Keyword(s):  
Circadian Rhythm ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Barometric Pressure ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Collective Effects ◽  
Incubation Behaviour ◽  
The Individual

AbstractWe studied the incubation scheduling of 8 white-rumped sandpipers (Calidris fuscicollis), a species in which only the female incubates. Because the female is small and nests in the high arctic, these birds are probably under more cold stress than birds nesting in the temperate zone. We examined the individual and collective effects of several weather variables on a female's incubation behaviour to ascertain what amount of the variability within a day was directly attributable to weather conditions. Birds made an average of 25.1 off-nest trips each day, averaging 10.5 min each. This resulted in spending, on average, 82.5% of their time incubating eggs. There was a clear within-day cycle in incubation scheduling; birds made more and longer trips in the middle of the day and, as a result, spent more total time off the nest in that period. Birds adjusted their hour-by-hour schedules to weather largely by altering the number of trips made, and less so by adjusting trip length. There was a circadian rhythm in recess time/h, explaining at least 11% of the variation in recess time/h. When the circadian rhythm was controlled statistically, weather accounted for an average of 38% of the explainable variation in recess time/h. The relative importance of each weather variable on the recess time/h was (in descending order of importance): wind speed, air temperature, solar radiation, barometric pressure, and relative humidity. Weather (primarily wind speed and temperature) exerted its strongest effects early and late in the bird's active day (0400-2300 h). On cold and windy days, birds increased the time spent on their nests early and late in the day, and made more trips than usual in the middle of the day, when air temperature was highest. We suggest that the incubation scheduling of these birds conformed to the long-term predictability of the daily weather cycle by following a circadian rhythm of behaviour modified by a response to concurrent weather that would have reduced egg cooling.

scholarly journals A Technique to Detect Microclimatic Inhomogeneities in Historical Records of Screen-Level Air Temperature

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 959-978 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. E. Runnalls ◽  
T. R. Oke
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Vegetation Development ◽  
Environment Effects ◽  
Thermal Changes ◽  
Screen Level ◽  
Temperature Records

Abstract A new method to detect errors or biases in screen-level air temperature records at standard climate stations is developed and applied. It differs from other methods by being able to detect microclimatic inhomogeneities in time series. Such effects, often quite subtle, are due to alterations in the immediate environment of the station such as changes of vegetation, development (buildings, paving), irrigation, cropping, and even in the maintenance of the site and its instruments. In essence, the technique recognizes two facts: differences of thermal microclimate are enhanced at night, and taking the ratio of the nocturnal cooling at a pair of neighboring stations nullifies thermal changes that occur at larger-than-microclimatic scales. Such ratios are shown to be relatively insensitive to weather conditions. After transforming the time series using Hurst rescaling, which identifies long-term persistence in geophysical phenomena, cooling ratio records show distinct discontinuities, which, when compared against detailed station metadata records, are found to correspond to even minor changes in the station environment. Effects detected by this method are shown to escape detection by current generally accepted techniques. The existence of these microclimatic effects are a source of uncertainty in long-term temperature records, which is in addition to those presently recognized such as local and mesoscale urban development, deforestation, and irrigation.

scholarly journals VARIABILITY OF PLANT HEIGHT AND GRAIN YIELD OF COLLECTED SAMPLES OF WINTER TRITICALE

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-48
Author(s):  
Sergey Ponomarev ◽  
Mira Ponomareva Mira Leonidovna ◽  
Sergey Fomin ◽  
Gul'naz Mannapova ◽  
Liliya Gil'mullina
Keyword(s):  
Grain Yield ◽  
Plant Height ◽  
Gene Pool ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Plant Genetic Resources ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Breeding Value ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Middle Volga Region ◽  
Winter Triticale

The aim of the study is to isolate from collection samples of winter triticale the sources of short-stemming and high grain yield for their further involvement in the selection process in the forest-steppe conditions of middle Volga region. The studies were carried out in 2013–2017 on typical gray forest soils. 93 samples of winter triticale of Russian selection, obtained from the collection of All-Russian Institute of Plant Genetic Resources named after N.I. Vavilov. Standard is Bashkir short-stemmed. Weather conditions during the years of study varied significantly. The studied gene pool has a wide genetic diversity in plant height (65 ... 136 cm) and yield (277 ... 579 g/m2). According to the results of analysis of variance, a significant influence of the genotype and year conditions on the manifestation of these characters was established. Plant height and yield depended on both factors and their interaction, but the first trait is determined mainly by the heredity of the varieties (46.1%), and the second - by the growing conditions (61.8%). There was a significant variation in the values of the studied indicators, both by genotypes and by years: the coefficient of intervarietal variation in the average values of the traits of grain yield and plant height for 2013–2017 amounted to 15.0 and 17.2%, respectively, with variation by years 15 , 4 ... 30.7% and 15.1 ... 20.1%, respectively. According to the results of regression analysis, it was found that within the studied gene pool the highest grain yield was formed by samples with a plant height of 86 ... 105 cm. 13 sources of short-stemming with a plant height below 80 cm and 17 high-yielding samples with a yield of 515 ... 579 g/m2 were identified. In these genotypes, the yield excess over Bashkirskaya short-stemmed standard was significant and amounted to 33 ... 97 g/ m2, or 6.8 ... 20.1%. The varieties Tribun, Skif, Kentavr, Sotnik are characterized by the highest breeding value

scholarly journals Impact of climatic factors on growth and development of Cichorium Endivia in greenhouse in Leningrad region, Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 54-67
Author(s):  
Tatiana Lavrishcheva ◽  
Anton Lavrishchev ◽  
Andrey Litvinovich
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Maximum Yield ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Leningrad Region ◽  
Nutritional Properties ◽  
Biometric Parameters ◽  
Cichorium Endivia ◽  
Number Of Leaves

The paper discusses the results of the study of the effect of climatic factors on the yield and biometric indicators of various varieties of endive chicory (Cichorium endivia (L.)) over a two-year study grown in the summer-autumn period in the plastic greenhouses on the experimental plots of the St. Petersburg Agrarian University, Pushkin, Russia. The plants of the genus Chicory are known and valued for their unique medicinal and nutritional properties. Total of 14 varieties of domestic and foreign Cichorium endivia breeding were studied. The study was carried out in 2015 and 2016years that were sharply differed in the amount of precipitation and temperature. The climate of Leningrad region is characterised with humid and long-lasting cold season. The aim of the research was to identify the variety of endive chicory that is most suitable and tolerant for the climatic conditions of Leningrad region, Russia. During the growing season the plant biometric parameters such as plant height (cm), rosette diameter of leaves (cm), and number of leaves (pieces) were measured. During harvesting, additional parameters such as biomass of plants and leaves, the area of the assimilation surface were determined. The decrease in plant biometric parameters during the phenological observations in September 2016 was associated with an increased amount of precipitation in July-August. The results showed that the variety "Broad Betavian fullhearted" was the most sensitive to the adverse effects of weather, showing the largest variation in biometrics over the studied years. In plants of this variety the mass of leaves decreased by 9.2 times, the area of the assimilation surface was reduced by 11.6 times, while the crop shortfall in 2016 was almost 90%. The varieties "Green curled" and "Scarola bionda" were the most tolerant to weather conditions. These varieties were characterized by the maximum yield in both years of research: "Green curled"-7.90 kg/m 2 and 2.87 kg/m 2 , "Scarola bionda"-8.06 kg/m 2 and 2.84 kg/m 2 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Generally, the result of the study showed that most of the studied varieties were sensitive to the amount of precipitation and the number of sunny days. The study made it possible to identify the most sensitive and most tolerant varieties of endive chicory for growing in the Leningrad region.

Modeling of air temperatures using a combination of TBATS and SVM models for various climatic locations in Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Gos ◽  
Piotr Baranowski ◽  
Jaromir Krzyszczak ◽  
Małgorzata Murat ◽  
Iwona Malinowska
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
State Space ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
State Space Models ◽  
Temperate Climate ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Air Temperatures

&lt;p&gt;By modelling and forecasting&amp;#160; of meteorological&amp;#160; time&amp;#160; series it is possible to&amp;#160; improve&amp;#160;&amp;#160; understanding&amp;#160; of&amp;#160; the&amp;#160; weather dynamics and fluctuations as a result of climate change . The most frequently used forecasting models are exponential smoothing, ARIMA models (Box and Jenkins, 1970), state-space models (Harvey, 1989) and innovations State Space Models (Hyndman et al., 2008).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The aim of this study was to check the effectiveness of the coupled TBATS and Support Vector Machines (SVM) model, supplied with some measured meteorological quantities to forecast air temperature for six years for four climatic localizations in Europe. The study was calculated from northern (Jokioinen in Finland), central (Dikopshof located in the west part of Germany and Nossen in the south part of Germany) and southern (Lleida in Spain) Europe to present different climatic conditions. Jokioinen city has a subarctic climate that has severe winters, with cool and short summers and strong seasonality. Lleida has a semi-arid climate with Mediterranean. Dikopshof represents maritime temperate climate. There are significant precipitation throughout the year in Dikopshof and Nossen. In the study we study on air temperature dataset collected on a daily basis from January 1st 1980 to December 31st 2010 (11322 days).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For all the studied sites coupled TBATS/SVM models occurred to be effective in predicting air temperature courses, giving an improved precision (up to 25%) in forecasting of the seasonality and local temperature variations, compared to pure SVM or TBATS modelling. The precision of prediction of the maximum and minimum air temperatures strongly depended on the dynamics of the weather conditions, and varied for different climatic zones.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study has been partly financed from the funds of the Polish National Centre for Research and Development in frame of the project: MSINiN, contract number: BIOSTRATEG3/343547/8/NCBR/2017.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Reference to a journal publication:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;BOX, G.E.P. &amp;#8211; Jenkins, G. 1970. Time Series Analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day, p. 20-31.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;HARVEY A. 1989. Forecasting Structural Time Series Model and the Kalman Filter. New York, Cambridge University press., p. 32-41.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;HYNDMAN, R.J. &amp;#8211; KOEHLER, A.B. &amp;#8211; ORD, J.K. &amp;#8211; SNYDER, R.D. 2008. Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer-Verlag, p. 50-62.&lt;/p&gt;

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