scholarly journals Epidemic Peaks Forecasting on Re-emerging Diseases in Elderly People using the Grey Disaster Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 974-982
Author(s):  
Nipaporn Chutiman ◽  
Pannarat Guayjarernpanishk ◽  
Butsakorn Kong-ied ◽  
Piyapatr Busababodhin ◽  
Monchaya Chiangpradit

Climate change causes the spread of non-vector diseases due to the influence of climate uncertainty. The elderly group, which is vulnerable, is affected by such disasters. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to forecast epidemic peaks of food poisoning, which was found as one of the re-emerging diseases in elderly people in Khon Kaen Province, Maha Sarakham Province, and Roi Et Province, which are in the Northeastern region of Thailand by using 2 types of Grey Model: GM(1,1) and Discrete Grey Model (DGM). The monthly rate of food poisoning incidence per 100,000 elderly people from January 2017 to December 2020 i.e., 48 months in total were used in the study. The study result revealed that the DGM had higher forecasting effectiveness than that of the GM(1,1) in all three provinces. The food poisoning incidences in elderly people were forecasted to re-emerge from August to September 2021 in Khon Kaen Province, from August to September 2022 in Maha Sarakham Province, and from May to June 2022 in Roi Et Province. The results of this study are useful and helpful for the government, the Ministry of Public Health and related cooperatives to effectively help services planning resource preparation and prevention measures. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01325 Full Text: PDF

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1374
Author(s):  
Shangguang Yang ◽  
Danyang Wang ◽  
Lu Xu ◽  
Chunlan Wang ◽  
Xi Yang ◽  
...  

Private (out-of-pocket) healthcare expenditure (PHCE) is a complex phenomenon that is shaped by many different factors. In this paper, we analyzed the influencing factors of PHCE in China, with a specific focus on regional differences. We found that old-age dependency ratio, income, and education have significant impacts on PHCE in all regions, whereas public HCE, number of beds in medical institutions, and economic development levels have significant impacts only in some regions. The results indicate that the government should pay attention to regional inequality and implement targeted adjustments for improving the health service system. In particular, we recommend: (1) monitoring regional inequality in PHCE and other healthcare issues to unmask geographical differences in healthcare interventions; (2) adopting regional-specific policy measures—the government should divert some resources from eastern to western and central regions to increasing the support for public health undertakings and improve the quality of the local health services while providing matching medical resources by targeting the needs of the residents; (3) paying more attention to the healthcare demand of the elderly population; and (4) improving the education level of residents to improve public health and avoid high PHCE.


2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chacha D. Mangu ◽  
Christina K. Manyama ◽  
Henry Msila ◽  
Lwitiho Sudi ◽  
Godlove Chaula ◽  
...  

Emerging diseases are global threat towards human existence. Every country is exposed to potentially emergence of infectious diseases. Several factor such as changes in ecology, climate and human demographics play different roles in a complex mechanism contributing to the occurrence of infectious diseases. Important aspects towards control in case of outbreaks are surveillance, preparedness and early response. Tanzania should therefore take opportunity of the calm situation currently present, to prepare. Except for HIV/AIDS, Tanzania has not experienced a major public health threat. However, the question is, is the country safe from emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases? In this article we try to explore the danger of emerging infectious disease (EID) epidemics in Tanzania and the risks attached if an outbreak is to occur. The aim is to formulate recommendations to the government, responsible authorities and general population of what can be done to improve the level of EID preparedness in the country. In conclusion, it is important to strengthen the capacity of community and healthcare staffs on how to respond to potential infectious disease outbreaks. Community-based surveillance systems should be incorporated into the national systems for early detection of public health events. It is also critical to enhance one health approach to increase cross-sectoral information sharing, surveillance and interventional strategies as regards to preparedness and response to disease outbreaks.


Patan Pragya ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Gokarna Raj Aryal

Elderly citizens are the sources of knowledge, experiences and collections of different ideas in every society or nation. If we use their ability, long experiences and their conscience, our society or nation will be benefitted to reform national development and prosperity. Ageing population is a global phenomenon and the number is rapidly increasing in developing countries as compared to developed countries. The government of Nepal has declared that people with 60 years or more are elderly citizens. The growth rate of the elderly population is faster than that of the total population in Nepal. The observation shows that the proportion of elderly population is high in mountain and hilly regions as compared to Terai. However, it is noted that female elderly population is the highest among three ecological regions. The growing numbers of ageing population is a major concern in most of the developing countries like Nepal. The social, economic and demographic impacts of ageing population possess both opportunities and challenges to every society. In this situation, the Government of Nepal should attempt to enhance the self-reliance and provide social security of its elderly people to facilitate their continuous participation in society. The Government of Nepal has introduced the universal old aged allowances program since 1994/95 as a non-contributing social assistance to elderly citizens with 70 years or more. The starting allowances are nominal. At present context, it is not a sufficient amount for the elderly citizens but they have little support to health care, medicine, entertainment and desired foods and fruits. Likewise, the Government should establish old age homes, day care and ageing centers and parks for entertainment.


Author(s):  
Daniel Opotamutale Ashipala ◽  
Nestor Tomas ◽  
Medusalem Hangula Joel

Hepatitis E (HEV) remains one of the foremost public health problems globally and it is estimated to have affected one-third of the human population. Usually, symptoms appear 2 to 9 weeks after exposure to the virus and include fever, fatigue, lack of appetite, abdominal pain, and jaundice. While the government has a duty to provide access to clean water, communities, and individuals can equally play an important role in practicing and maintaining good physical and environmental hygiene. In Namibia, the spread of HEV has been a public health concern since it's outbreak in 2017. Before then, the country had two outbreaks in 1983 and 1995-1996 which affected mainly areas lacking potable water and waste disposal facilities in Kavango region. This chapter ought to provide an overview and different prevention measures and supportive management approaches used to contain and prevent the spread of HEV. The above statistic calls for plans and actions from national, regional, district management teams to implement effective active surveillance interventions in place that are geared towards curbing the spread of HEV.


Vestnik NSUEM ◽  
2022 ◽  
pp. 226-241
Author(s):  
M. V. Kornilova

This article is devoted to the study of the consequences of social isolation of elderly Muscovites during the spread of coronavirus infection. The author draws attention to the fact that the informal isolation of the older generation has existed for a long time, but only in the new conditions associated with the pandemic, the «home mode» of life in old age was fixed by law. Social isolation is considered as a risk to the life and health of the older generation. It is shown how unprecedented restrictive measures of the Government affec­ted the psycho-emotional and physical health of elderly people, and the tasks of the state to reduce the vulnerability, ensure the safety and resilience of the elderly were not solved. 


Stanovnistvo ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordana Matkovic

In Serbia, the long-term care as a system does not actually exist. One part of the system is regulated through cash benefits, one part through institutional social care and community-based social services, and one part is just being established under the health care system. The linkages among these segments are not strong and there is insufficient awareness of the need to regard the different parts of the system as being interdependent and interconnected. According to the different surveys, home care is needed for the daily functioning of more than 80,000 elderly people, especially for around 27,000 of those who are completely immobile. More than 300 thousand elderly persons have indicated that they are in need of some type of self-care support. By tradition, elderly people in Serbia rely primarily on family support. Some are getting the state support as well. Research shows that 62 thousand elderly persons (5 percent) receive attendance allowance; 9,000 elderly are accommodated in institutions (0.7 percent), while 11.7 thousand (1 percent) persons received some type of support through home care community based services. In addition, in Belgrade there are also 2,000 elderly who are beneficiaries of medical and palliative care at home. The government expenditures for these purposes can be very roughly estimated at 0.55 percent of GDP, largely for cash benefits (0.37 percent). Considered over a medium and longer term, the government expenditures on longterm care in Serbia will inevitably increase significantly, primarily due to an increase in the number and share of elderly people and the increase in additional life years spent in ill health or in need of assistance. An increase in the expenditures will also be influenced by a change in the family models and the increasing number of elderly that will be living alone, as well as the diminishing possibilities for reliance on the closest family members, especially due to emigration flows both at local and national levels. Finally, it is important not to neglect the effect of emulating more developed countries, as well as the EU?s pressure to adequately respond to the needs of the elderly. Therefore, the state and society must promptly prepare a systematic, comprehensive, timely and fiscally responsible response. This response must recognize the capacities of all stakeholders, from family to state and non-state and match the capacities with the appropriate roles in the system of long-term care provision.


Curationis ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. S. Ntshona

Social, economic and health care needs of elderly black persons in Port Elizabeth and areas in its immediate vicinity are investigated. Conclusions are drawn from a sample study of 301 elderly people. The investigation reveals that the majority of pensioners are -women, their educational standard is below standard 10, and they have little vocational or specialized training. A high proportion (86%) of them are breadwinners and therefore they are unwilling to reside in institutions. Recreational facilities are inadequate. Pension payout points are overcrowded and disorganized. Also health care services are inaccessible to most elderly people. In view of these findings, a community-based approach to care for the elderly is recommended. The approach should promote social interaction among elderly through establishment of luncheon clubs and service centres and well-being of all elderly through geriatric clinics as well as home care services for the infirm. This entails an intersectorial collaboration, with the elderly being fully involved and participating. Considering the exponential growth of the elderly population in South Africa, it is imperative that the government and other organizations should take cognizance of studies of this nature when making future decisions as regards the care of this group.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-77
Author(s):  
Nanik Dwi Astutik

The increasing number of elderly in quantity must get a great attention so that the elderly can pass through their old age successfully, and be able to maintain their health in the midst of the covid 19 pandemic.Tajinan Health Center already has an integrated service program (posyandu) for the elderly that is routinely held every month. However, the activity was temporarily suspended due to constraints on not being allowed to leave the house during Covid 19. Elderly people are among the vulnerable to contracting corona virus because at that age there is a decrease in hormone production and function of the body's organs. Even seniors who already have chronic diseases such as hypertension, diabetes and cancer are more susceptible to contracting due to declining immunity. According to a report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO), the highest death rate due to COVID-19 is the elderly over the age of 80. During the covid 19 period, cadres cannot accompany the elderly directly even though the elderly need to be given knowledge and assistance to be ready to face COVID 19. Elderly people are difficult to digest some of the appeals given by the government related to efforts to keep themselves from being exposed to the COVID-19 virus. The presence of cognitive impairment can make it difficult for the elderly to understand the reasons behind various precautions, such as why they should not leave the house, why they should wear masks, and so on. Therefore, the approach and way of communicating with the elderly needs a little adjustment. Based on the potential of elderly posyandu cadres and the assessment results that have been described, it is necessary to provide knowledge and understanding on elderly health management to improve the understanding of health cadres as an effort to improve the health of the elderly during the covid 19 pandemic.


Responsive ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Ari Afriansyah ◽  
Meilanny Budiarti Santoso

Abstrak            Jumlah lansia di Indonesia mengalami peningkatan secara konsisten setiap tahunnya. Meski demikian tidak semua lansia beruntung bisa tinggal bersama keluarga di masa tuanya, hal itu bisa disebabkan oleh bermacam hal sehingga lansia ditempatkan di tempat penitipan lanjut usia atau biasa disebut dengan panti werdha. Panti werdha merupakan bentuk perhatian yang diberikan oleh pemerintah kepada lansia yang berfungsi untuk menampung lansia di Indonesia. Namun, kehidupan lansia di Panti Werdha tidak semuanya berjalan dengan lancar, tercatat menurut penelitian yang pernah dilakukan di Panti Griya Sehat Bahagia Palur Karanganyar bahwa sebanyak 94,5% lansia mengalami depresi di Panti karena berbagai hal. Oleh karena itu sudah menjadi tugas panti untuk memberikan pelayanan-pelayanan bagi lansia untuk membantu proses adaptasi lansia dengan memenuhi syarat dasar melangsungkan kehidupan mereka (syarat fisik, kejiwaan dan sosial). Penelitian ini menggunakan metode studi literatur, dimana penulis melakukan kajian terhadap berbagai sumber tertulis, baik berupa buku-buku, arsip, majalah, artikel, dan jurnal, atau dokumen-dokumen yang relevan dengan permasalahan yang dikaji. Dan dari kajian yang telah dilakukan ditemukan bahwa upaya pelayanan lansia telah diatur dalam undang-undang nomor 13 tahun 1998 pasal 3 yang menyatakan bahwa upaya meningkatkan kesejahteraan sosial lanjut usia meliputi pelaksanaan pelayanan bimbingan fisik, pelayanan bimbingan keagamaan/ mental spiritual, pelayanan bimbingan sosial serta bimbingan keterampilan dan telah mencakup segala aspek yang dibutuhkan lansia untuk memenuhi aspek yang diperlukan untuk beradaptasi.Kata Kunci : Lansia, Adaptasi, Panti Werdha, Pelayanan Panti Werdha.Abstract            Numbers of elderly people in Indonesia has increased consistently. However, not all elderly people are fortunate to be able to live with their families in their old age, this can be caused by a variety of things so that the elderly are placed in a nursing home. Nursing homes are a attention given by the government to the elderly. However, the lives of the elderly in the Nursing Home didn’t all go smoothly, according to a study conducted at the Griya Sehat Bahagia Nursing Home that 94.5% of the elderly had depression. Therefore it has become the duty of the orphanage to provide services for the elderly to assist the process of adaptation of the elderly by fulfilling the basic requirements for carrying out their lives (physical, psychological and social conditions). This study uses the literature study method. And from the studies, it was found that the service efforts of the elderly have been regulated in law number 13 (1998) article 3 which states that efforts to improve elderly social welfare include the implementation of physical, mental, skill and social guidance services. It all includes all aspects needed by the elderly to fulfill the aspects needed to adapt.Key Words : Elderly, Adapt, Nursing Home, Nursing Home Services.


2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-191
Author(s):  
Ajit Shah ◽  
Sofia Zarate-Escudero

Two important aspects of the epidemiology of suicides in the elderly people can potentially be applied to dementia. The first is the well-established observation of the independent effects of age, birth cohort membership, and the period on the risk of suicide in the elderly people (Murphy et al., 1986; Surtees and Duffy, 1989; Snowdon and Hunt, 2002). The second is the recently developed concept of the epidemiological transition hypothesis of suicide in the elderly people (Shah and Bhat, 2009; Shah, 2010; Shah et al., 2008). These epidemiological aspects, in addition to the theoretical aspects, may also have clinical and public health implications for dementia.


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