Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Perspektif Ekonomi Islam: Peran Inflasi, Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Hutang Luar Negeri dan Pembiayaan Syariah

Economic growth is a fundamental indicator in assessing economic performance. In assessing the economic growth, it can use several important variables such as Inflation, Government Consumption Expenditure, Foreign Debts, and Sharia Finance. In turn, this research aims to analyze the impacts of these variables on the economic growth in Indonesia (Quarter I – Quarter IV) in the period of 2011-2018. The Error Correction Model used in the analysis method. The results of the analysis showed that the variable inflation in the long-term harmed economic growth; while, in the short-term, the level of inflation had a positive impact on economic growth. Meanwhile, the variable of Government Consumption Expenditure had a negative contribution to economic growth. Furthermore, foreign debt in the long term hurt economic growth, but for the short term, it could bring the positive one. Variable of Sharia finance showed a good result both in the short term and in the long term with a negative correlation with economic growth in Indonesia. However, all variables of inflation, Government Consumption Expenditure, foreign debts, and sharia finance simultaneously had an impact on National Economic Growth.

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THE TESTING OF MONEY NEUTRALITY IN ECONOMIC GROWTH OF INDONESIA

Management and Economics Journal (MEC-J) ◽

10.18860/mec-j.v1i1.4575 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 12

Author(s):

Muammil Sun’an ◽

Amran Husen

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Output Growth ◽

Broad Sense ◽

Series Data ◽

Analysis Tool ◽

Real Sector ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model

This study aim is to test the money neutrality in a narrow sense (M1) and a broad sense (M2) to the growth of output (GDP) in Indonesia, both in short term and long term. This research uses quarterly time series data at 2010 - 2016 periods. The analysis tool used is Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that short-term money supply (M1 and M2) affect on output growth. However, in the long term, only money circulation in a broad sense (M2) affects on output growth, which also means that money is not neutral because it affects the real sector (GDP). Keywords: M1, M2, Population, Capital, and Economic Growth.

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Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Instruments on Economic Growth in Jordan Using Vector Error Correction Model

International Journal of Economics and Finance ◽

10.5539/ijef.v9n11p194 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 194

Author(s):

Rami Obeid ◽

Bassam Awad

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Monetary Policy ◽

Policy Instruments ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Vector Error ◽

Effect Of Monetary Policy

The global financial crisis emphasized the important role of the prudent monetary policy in supporting economic growth through maintaining price stability. The monetary policy operational framework that was designed in 2008 was updated to include more instruments for managing monetary policy learning from the crisis lessons. Several studies analyzed various dimensions related to economic growth in Jordan such as Abdul-Khaliq, Soufan, and Abu Shihab (2013) and Assaf (2014), there were no studies that investigated the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Jordan, at least recently, however. The study aims at measuring the effect of monetary policy instruments on the performance of Jordanian economy. Using quarterly data covering the period (2005-2015), an econometric model was examined using Vector Error Correction Model to assess the impact of monetary policy instruments on economic growth. The foremost advantage of VECM is that it has a nice interpretation of long-term and short-term equations. The results showed the existence of positive long-term and short-term effects of monetary policy instruments on the growth of real GDP. The model included three monetary policy instruments besides money supply. They are required reserve ratio, rediscount rate and overnight interbank loan rates as independent variables, and the real GDP growth as a dependent variable. The stationarity of the model time series was addressed. In addition, the stability of the model was tested using stability diagnostics tools. The results showed also an existence of inverse relationship between rediscount rate and economic growth in Jordan over both long and short terms.

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Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Growth with Islamic and non-Islamic Macroeconomic Variable

Economica Jurnal Ekonomi Islam ◽

10.21580/economica.2020.11.1.4907 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 107-128

Author(s):

Eba Ismi Alifah ◽

Anton Bawono

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Error Correction ◽

Foreign Debt ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Correction Model ◽

Islamic Bank ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Government ◽

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Abstract: This research was conducted to determine the effect of taxes, Sukuk, grants, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and the network of Islamic bank offices on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data for each variable is monthly from 2009-2018. Data analysis variables use Error Correction Model (ECM) Test and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Test with Eviews ver.10. The results showed that in the short and long term, variables taxes, Sukuk, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and office networks of Islamic banks) affected the Indonesian economic growth. At the same time, grants have no significant effect on economic growth. For variable predictions in the next year (2019), only economic growth, grants, inflation, foreign debt, and network of Islamic bank offices can be predicted. Meanwhile, taxes, Sukuk, and total financing cannot be identified in 2019 because the variables are not significant in the ARCH analysis, so it cannot be diagnosed about future values. This result implies that the government and the community must continue to work together to manage state revenues used to fund productive projects to stimulate economic growth.Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pajak, sukuk negara, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Data penelitian setiap variabel berupa bulanan dari tahun 2009-2018. Uji variabel penelitian menggunakan Uji Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Uji ARCH menggunakan Eviews ver.10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, variabel pajak, sukuk negara, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Sedangkan variabel hibah tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk prediksi variabel di tahun berikutnya (tahun 2019), hanya variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri dan jumlah jaringan kantor bank syariah yang dapat diprediksi, sedangkan pajak, sukuk negara, dan jumlah pembiayaan tidak dapat diketahui nilai perkembangannya di tahun 2019 karena variabel tersebut tidak signifikan pada analisis ARCH. Sehingga tidak dapat di diagnosa dalam bentuk ARCH untuk dilakukan forecast data agar diketahui tentang nilai di masa yang akan datang. Implikasi dari temuan ini adalah diperlukan upaya yang berkesinambungan dari pemerintah dan masyarakat dalam mengelola penerimaan negara yang dimanfaatkan untuk mendanai proyek yang produktif sehingga dapat mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UTANG LUAR NEGERI DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Ecogen ◽

10.24036/jmpe.v1i3.4989 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 482

Author(s):

Defrizal Saputra ◽

Hasdi Aimon ◽

Melti Roza Adry

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Error Correction ◽

Foreign Debt ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Descriptive Research ◽

Long Run

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that influence foreign debt in Indonesia with variables that effect economic growth, inflation, and foreign interest rates. This type of research is associative descriptive research, where the data used is secondary data from 1970 to 2017 obtained from institutions and related institutions, which are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. This study initially used the Ordinary Lest Square (OLS) method to see long-term, and used ECM because it wanted to see short-term at the same time. The findings of this study indicate that economic growth and inflation have a significant effect in the long run, but the interest rates have no significant effect, and in the short term all have a significant effect on foreign debt in Indonesia. Keywords: foreign debt, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and error correction model (ECM)

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ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN COUNTRY RISK TERHADAP INVESTASI PORTOFOLIO ASING DI INDONESIA

Ecosains: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.24036/ecosains.11066657.00 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 135

Author(s):

Halifah Hadi ◽

Hasdi Aimon ◽

Dewi Zaini Putri

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Country Risk ◽

Growth Effect ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

The Stability

The reseach aims to explain the effect of country risk and variabels macroeconomics to the foreign portofolio invesment in Indonesia in short term and long term. The analysis takes time series time series data from 2006 quarter 1 through 2016 quarter 4by using Error Correction Model (ECM). The source of data are Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, FX Sauder and World Bank. The result are in the short term the exchange rate and economic growth effect the shock that will influence the foreign portofolio invesment. In the long trem the inflation, interst rate, money supply and country risk influence on foreign portofolio invesment significanly. The suggestion in this research is, the goverment sould keep the stability balance of payment in Indonesia .Any change, the condition of balance of payments effect appreciation and depreciation to Rupiah. To increase the economic growth in Indonesia, goverment could increasing the fiscal income and PMDN realization that will increase the enterprises productivity.

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Effect of International Direct Investments on Jordan’s Economy

International Journal of Business and Management ◽

10.5539/ijbm.v14n2p48 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 48

Author(s):

Abdul Aziz Saymeh ◽

Marwan Mohammad Abu Orabi

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Financial Institutions ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Relevant Information ◽

Annual Reports ◽

Short Term ◽

Foreign Investments ◽

National Economic

The main objective of this research concerns the detailed information advocated by data to the latest developments in the volume of external investments in the Kingdom and their effects on Jordan’s economic growth. The study problem stems from the challenges facing the national economy in general and the role of none Jordanian investments and their effect on upgrading the national economic growth. In this study, researchers have used the descriptive analytical methods through the financial and economic reports and other relevant information available in the annual reports and publications issued by the financial institutions via measuring the effect of international direct investment(IDI) in boosting the national gross domestic product(GDP) in Jordan for 2005-2015 period. Research hypotheses were tested by using Pearson’s correlation formula (IDI) and (GDP). The correlation negative (inverse). Analysis results revealed that the correlation between these investments are not linked to its (GDP) alone, thus, researchers have attributed it to several other variables which might have greater impact on GDP and recommend that Jordan should develop long-term strategies for investments in several productive areas characterized by investment sustainability, rather than directing investments to short-term areas seeking rapid profits. Also taking advantage lessons of successful countries in attracting foreign investments such as Malaysian, Korean and Thai experiences and should encourage specialized studies to examine further variables that might have strong impacts on Jordan's economic growth.

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The influence of standards and patents on long-term economic growth

The Journal of Technology Transfer ◽

10.1007/s10961-021-09864-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Knut Blind ◽

Florian Ramel ◽

Charolotte Rochell

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Growth Models ◽

Panel Cointegration ◽

International Standards ◽

National Standards ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Short Term ◽

Policy Makers

AbstractFormal standards codify knowledge. Next to patents representing the generation of innovative knowledge, standards can hence be used to proxy the diffusion of innovative knowledge in macroeconomic growth models. Previous work mainly investigates the positive impact of in particular patents, but also standards on economic growth in short term, single country studies. This study is the first to examine the long-term effects of formal standards and patents on economic growth in a panel of eleven EU-15 countries between 1981 and 2014 using panel cointegration techniques. From policy makers' perspective standardization has also gained recently an increasing attention, e.g. in the call for the development of a European standardization strategy in the update of the industrial strategy. Our results show that European and international standards foster growth for the group of countries but that national standards have ambiguous growth effects in the panel. For patents, no significant effect on growth in this group of countries is identified.

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Analysis of Work Performance and Export Competitiveness in Province of Indonesia

SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ◽

10.29259/sijdeb.v1i3.33 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 277

Author(s):

Nani Rosita

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Performance Index ◽

Capital Stock ◽

Work Performance ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Export Performance ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Export Competitiveness

The purpose of this study is to analyse the export performance of provinces in Indonesia, the effect of export and capital stock on the long-term and short-term economic growth of Indonesia and the competitiveness of provinces in exporting Indonesia’s leading products. The panel data from 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2000-2016 is used in this study. The secondary data is consist of gross regional domestic product (GRDP), export value and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Export performance is measured using regional export performance index meanwhile, the effect of export and capital stock on long-term and short-term economic growth is analysed using cointegrated panel model and error correction model (ECM) panel. Finally, RCA dynamic is used in analysing export competitiveness. The results show that export performance of each province have various rating on the regional economies. Only 11 provinces have regional export performance index higher than while, meaning that only 33.3% of the total provinces, while the rest of the provinces have index that are less than one. This shows that only few provinces that can provide good performance of export. Based on the co-integrated test, there is a long-term relation between GRDP, export and GFCF. In both long-term and short-term, export and GFCF have positive impact on GRDP showing that the increase in export and/or GFCF will increase GRDP, which will results in economic growth. Furthermore, the results of RCA dynamic show that the export competitiveness is not always following the growth of national export segment. Indonesia’s rubber and coal exports have negative growth of national export segment while export of palm oil, coffee and textile have positive growth.Keywords: export performance, competitiveness, export led growth, cointegrate panel, ECM panel

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INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

Jurnal Benefita ◽

10.22216/jbe.v5i3.5623 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 401

Author(s):

Feri Irawan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term

ABSTRACTThis study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation. ABSTRACTPenelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.

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The Impact of FDI on the Economic Growth of the Yangtze River Economic Belt: An Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202125101076 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 251 ◽

pp. 01076

Author(s):

Zhuhui Wu

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Development ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Var Model ◽

The Yangtze River ◽

Short Term ◽

Dynamic Relationship ◽

The Impact

FDI is very important to the economic development of a region. The Yangtze River economic belt is one of the important economic core regions in China. In order to study the impact of global foreign direct investment on the economic growth of the Yangtze River economic belt, this paper uses VAR model to analyze the dynamic relationship between FDI and GDP in the Yangtze River economic belt. The results show that FDI has a positive impact on the growth of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the short term, but not in the long term. At the same time, the economic development of the Yangtze River economic belt has a positive impact on FDI.

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