scholarly journals FORECASTING THE POTENTIAL OF THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM ON THE BASIS OF THE EXOGENIC GROWTH MODEL

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergiy Poznyak ◽  
◽  
Yurii Kolyada ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Solow Model ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
The World ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The paper considers models of economic growth and the possibility of modifying a suitable model to find the potential for economic growth for the economy of society. The world global economy is studied, presented in terms of societies of the world, in monetary terms and the growth potential of gross domestic product in relation to capital, labor, technological progress, population and other macroeconomic indicators that affect it. Theoretical and methodological significance lies in the description of a fundamentally new method of modeling, which can be used to assess the potential of economic development, proving the dynamics of the coefficients of elasticity of production factors, and proving the hypothesis of declining economic growth. The developed model effectively estimates the potential for economic growth for any country and can be used as a basis for forecasting indicators of potential capital intensity of production and potential gross domestic product. Regarding the practical significance of the obtained results, it should be noted that all changes and numerical values are supported by real data and are a consequence of economic, political or social phenomena in the economy of the country under consideration. In the further research it is possible to develop this model, adding to it new variables which influence economic growth, to update methodology of finding of coefficients as a result of actions of economic agents, instead of only their exogenous influence on economy. The work has three main sections. The first section contains theoretical aspects of estimating the evolutionary economy in the one-dimensional case, it describes the basic theoretical information about the Solow model and other neoclassical and endogenous models of economic growth. The second section describes the possibilities of the Solow model for estimating economic growth potential and theoretical aspects and derives the mathematical basis for estimating economic growth potential. Also in this section describes the implementation of the mathematical base. The third section comments on the results of modeling, based on which detailed conclusions are formed, which summarize the economic, mathematical, analytical and technical work. The simulation results well illustrate the degree of use of economic potential, as well as the impact of capital, technological progress, investment, natural population movement on the efficiency of the economy in terms of many countries. The developed software (as a product of the digital economy) can be used to further improve the model, taking into account more factors.

POSSIBILITIES OF REALIZATION OF SERVICE SECTOR POTENTIAL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oksana Melnichuk
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Trade In Services ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
The World

The relevance of the study is due to the growing role of services in the world economy. Trade in services has become the dominant driver of economic growth and development in both developed and developing economies. Since the 1980s, data suggest that there is a stronger relationship between trade in services and gross domestic product (GDP) than in the case of commodity growth and GDP. It is noted that the quality of policies, regulations and institutional frameworks is a key factor in determining the effectiveness of services. As services are increasingly subject to liberalization through multilateral and regional trade agreements, it is important that countries develop harmonized approaches to internal regulation and trade liberalization in the services sector. The article identifies the features and characteristics of the service sector as a factor of multifaceted development and growth. The dynamics of international trade in services by geographical structure and types of development of countries is studied on the basis of statistical data of international organizations, taking into account the impact of the pandemic. It is noted that international trade in services is becoming an increasingly important part of global commerce. The problematic aspects of the activity of small business entities to enter foreign markets of services are considered. The issue of urgency of digital economy development for the sphere of services and contribution to world markets is outlined. Opening up the services sector has the potential to bring great benefits and deserves more attention. Further prospects for the realization of entrepreneurial potential in a comprehensive global economy are outlined. It is noted that services are an important part of the world economy, generating more than two-thirds of world gross domestic product (GDP), attracting more than three-quarters of foreign direct investment in developed economies, and creating most of new jobs worldwide. Establishing effective coordination mechanisms between trade negotiators, policymakers and regulators will be an important tool for the development of the global economy.

scholarly journals GREEN ECONOMY AND ACCESS TO FINANCE IN GEORGIA (GOING BEYOND THE COMMERCIAL BANKING SECTOR TO FINANCE BUSINESSES IN GEORGIA)

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
pp. 87-95
Author(s):  
DAVID ASLANISHVILI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

This research will explore other possible financial vehicles that go beyond traditional sources of private capital offered by commercial banks. It will look at international experience and the opportunities to use public support, green bonds to raise green finance as well as the work of energy service companies (ESCOs) to finance green investments. We have offered our view of what should be done in fact (not in paper in Georgia as it has been in the past 15 years) to change the situation and end the negative and harmful monopoly of the commercial banks and the National Bank of Georgia and to have in place the two independent sources to attract and invest resources in Georgia. This will increase the capitalization of the country and is a proven way to eradicate the country›s lagging and accelerate economic growth. Why should we focus on this issue? 1. According to WHO›s latest data, over 7 million people die each year because of breathing air with solid particles, and one of its main pollutants is vehicles. (Cereceda Rafael, Cuddy Alice. 2018.....) 2. Georgia’s Capital - Tbilisi - is occupying the 3rd place in the light of air pollution, 3. Due to the critical situation, the public demand to live in a clean ecological environment, day by day increases. In our research the following Questions are discussed and overviewed: • Is it important to act on the issues of Georgia›s position on the global scale? • What unique components can be used to prolong the average life of people? • What investors do the country need for building ecoprojects and their realization? • What type of ecofriendly technologies can be developed for potential customers in Georgia? In that field we have studied the following: • The links between economic growth, green growth (e.g. clean energy), high living standards and capital markets; • Why the Commercial Banks are the main and the only source of finance for green (and not only) investments in Georgia; • Situation on capital markets of Georgia (stock and bond markets) - as an indicator of economic growth and an alternative source of financing; • Possible benefits of non-bank financing, including for clean energy projects and the SME sector (e.g. small hydro, energy efficiency); • The role of government in supporting capital market development; • The role of international community (donors, IFIs, international organization) to support Georgia’s efforts to develop capital markets Georgia – Recent level of development To illustrate the wide gap between the developed economy and the weak one, let us compare the current level of per capita GDP of Switzerland, Hungary, Poland to Georgian one (source: https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/gdpper-capita; https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/gdp-percapita; https://tradingeconomics.com/hungary/gdp-per-capita; https://tradingeconomics.com/georgia/gdp-per-capita); • The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Switzerland was last recorded at 76667.44 US dollars in 2017. The GDP per Capita in Switzerland is equivalent to 607 percent of the world›s average. • The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Hungary was last recorded at 15647.85 US dollars in 2017. The GDP per Capita in Hungary is equivalent to 124 percent of the world›s average. • The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Poland was last recorded at 15751.23 US dollars in 2017. The GDP per Capita in Poland is equivalent to 125 percent of the world›s average. • The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Georgia was last recorded at 4290.17 US dollars in 2017).The GDP per Capita in Georgia is equivalent to 34 percent of the world›s average.

scholarly journals DO ENTREPRENEURIAL DYNAMICS AND EMPLOYMENT INFLUENCE ECONOMIC GROWTH? EVIDENCE FOR ROMANIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 98-110
Author(s):  
Ramona Simut ◽  
Alina Badulescu ◽  
Dragos Dianu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Active Population ◽  
Trust Networks ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Social Associations ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Entrepreneurial Dynamics

The literature on the relationship between entrepreneurship, firm formation and economic development often describes entrepreneurship as a complex phenomenon, led by individuals, embedded in a broad economic and societal context, which, in regional terms, influences the quality and results of the entrepreneurial process. From a micro-economic perspective, the region is shaped by the myriad of laborious and innovative actions of entrepreneurs, looking for opportunities, taking risks, starting businesses and generating economic and social associations. Competition, trust, networks, mentalities, the education system, public policies, all are ingredients that can provide opportunities for many actors at the local level (institutions, businesses, population, etc.) and thus, for the region as a whole to thrive. Often these elements can offer the opportunities of economic convergence between regions and countries. On the other hand, we found that the potential of entrepreneurship to generate benefits and an impetus for the economic growth of regions were not fully researched and understood, despite suggestive empirical evidence and a rich literature in regional studies. In this article we analysed, at the level of the 8 development regions of Romania, the relation between the firm’s formation and the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product, respectively the relation between employment/active population and the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product. We did not find clear evidence that the pace of setting up new businesses has a certain effect on economic growth or employment, but we found that in some regions, better equipped in terms of infrastructure, qualification and diversity of human capital, entrepreneurial dynamics could moderately influence the positive evolution of these macroeconomic indicators.

scholarly journals ECONOMIC GROWTH MODEL FOR BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA IN THE PERIOD 2007-2017 - OPPORTUNITIES FOR FUTURE RISKS REDUCTION -

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (18) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Saša Stevanović
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Productivity Function ◽  
Economic Growth Model

The theory of the system indicates that the metastable state (state of the system described as a state which is close to the equilibrium state) will go into equilibrium if we wait long enough. The behavior of a particular system in the future depends on historical events, current and future shocks. In the equilibrium, all participants in economic life - economic agents are satisfied with their position, and economists call this a state of Nash equilibrium. The problem that we will deal with is the question of whether the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina is in equilibrium, how to measure equilibrium, how to achieve stability and the balance of the system. The research will focus on productivity function for BiH, the concept of a potential gross domestic product, deviations in the nominal gross domestic product from the potential. We will analyze aggregate demand with the aim to define the model of economic growth of Bosnia and Herzegovina. We believe this knowledge will provide a basis that we believe can serve to create instruments, measures and policies that are needed to reduce future risks - deviations in economic growth.

scholarly journals Reforming the armed forces of the country and military-patriotic education as a strategic advantage in the economic rivalry of countries in the global economy

2019 ◽  
pp. 34-44
Author(s):  
Ihor Honak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The State ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Patriotic Education ◽  
National Defence

Purpose. The aim of the article is to study the features of mutual influence of expenditures of the Ukrainian state budget on national defence, youth and sports on the gross domestic product of Ukraine in the conditions of aggravation of economic rivalry in the global economy. Methodology of research. The following methods are used during the research: generalization of information and literature sources – to formulate proposals on the progressive development of the Ukrainian economy and quality of its labour resources, on the cohesion of the society and its psychological and physical health through the implementation of expenditures of the Ukrainian state budget for national defence and youth and sports; regression and correlation analysis – to analyse the mutual impact of GDP and expenditures of the Ukrainian state budget on national defence, youth and sports. Findings. Methods for educating young people are proposed in order to provide an educated and physically healthy workforce for the national economy and defence and security. The influence of arms exports and military equipment on the economy of Ukraine is analysed. The need to carry out some reforms of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to increase the country's defence capability and ensure economic prosperity is substantiated. The correlation between the growth of gross domestic product and expenditures of the State Budget of Ukraine through the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Youth and Sports, which is linear, is established. Suggestions are made to reform other specific aspects of the state mechanism in order to increase the country's defence capability and ensure the following economic growth. Originality. The article provides suggestions for reforming youth policy and the national defence sphere to ensure economic growth and strengthen the country's defence capability. Correlation between the growth of gross domestic product and expenditures of the State Budget of Ukraine through the Ministry of Defence has been established (increase of expenditures on the Ministry of Defence by 1 billion hryvnias has a direct impact on GDP growth in the amount of 29.884 billion hryvnias) and the Ministry of Youth and Sports (growth spending on the Ministry of Youth and Sports by UAH 1 million influences GDP growth by UAH 1.045 billion), which is close. Practical value. The practical significance of the obtained results is the possibility of studying the mutual influence of the expenditures of the Ukrainian state budget, spent on national defence, youth and sports, on the gross domestic product of Ukraine in the conditions of aggravation of economic rivalry in the global economy. Key words: national security; arms and military equipment exports; military-patriotic education of youth; reform; economic growth; unemployment; employment; gross domestic product.

scholarly journals Covid-19 and Its Impact on E-Administration, Employment and Migration in the Indian Economy, (In the Present Context)

2021 ◽  
pp. 82-87
Author(s):  
Bharath K M ◽  
Arun Kumar L S
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
National Income ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Educational Services ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government

India is the second largest populated country in the world and largest market Economy for most of the developed countries in the world like MNC’s (Multi-National Companies) like automobiles, telephone and communication, educational services, start-up’s, call centres and global level entrepreneurs like to invest in India, due to huge demand for consumer goods and technological products India is one of the largest growing developing economy in the world after China in 2019, with an average GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of 7 percent from2015-2019, with huge FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), India is said to be the country with huge foreign returns in the world. But due to covid-19 has made most of the states in India are in standstill position due to lockdown situation, the income generating sources of the government is unable to generate income as most of the unorganised sectors like migrant workers, small wage labourers contribution to Indian economic growth and business is in standstill stage in the 40 days of Indian government lockdown, this is causing to increase in unemployment ratio in many sectors like educational services, real estate companies etc. only in some organised sectors there is processing of work through online (e-commerce) or in digital mode of transaction, but the unorganised sector workers and daily wage workers or migrants who travelled from far states are unable to earn for their lively wages. Indian government preference to health emergency and relief package of 20 Lakh crore Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan is burden for Indian economic growth as the government is distributing from March 2020. This pandemic has made India`s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate prediction below 4%, according to the report of ADB (Asian Development Bank). IMF (International Monetary Fund) has predicted that Indian economy is expected to grow at -10.3 %, according to the source provided by “The Hindu”. There is a need for all the sectors in the economy for digital inclusion, India can try to improve by making all payments and receipts in unorganised sectors through Digital Mode. India can use this global pandemic situation by making India as one of the favourite investment destination for FDI, business and e-commerce in the globe. The purpose of this study is to analyse Covid-19 impact on Indian economy through migration, e-commerce, business and remedies to overcome the pandemic to the growth of National Income (GDP), by implementing various schemes like Make in India and self-reliant India by fiscal and monetary policies.

scholarly journals Planning Oil Revenues and Their Role in Economic Growth in Iraq

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr. Saja Fadhil Jawad ◽  
Dr.Taameem M. Saloum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Planning Policy ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
The World ◽  
Important Means ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Revenues

Planning is an important means that contributes to achieving economic growth by raising the contribution of the non-oil productive sectors to the gross domestic product, as planning has become an urgent necessity, especially for oil economies that suffer from a weak production base due to the heavy dependence on oil, which is a depleted resource and is characterized by many fluctuations in Its prices in the world oil markets. Given that Iraq is one of the economies that the oil sector dominated its gross domestic product and affected its economic performance, despite its possession of many natural capabilities, human resources and various economic components. Therefore, an effective planning policy must be adopted to use this product and diversify the production base in order to achieve economic growth and stand up to external shocks.

scholarly journals GEORGIA IN THE WORLD OF CORONOMICS: THREATS AND CHALLENGES

2020 ◽  
pp. 94-102
Author(s):  
NANA ASLAMAZISHVILI
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The Other ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Rapid Variability ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The World ◽  
The Current Account

So far, much has been written and discussed about the rapid variability and complex predictability of the global economy, and different countries have more or less successfully dealt with the challenges they face. However, the global threat posed by the world in the form of COVID-19 puts the methods and approaches to combating economic crises completely upside down. What should be the strategy and tactics of the countries to start recovering the economies as quickly as possible under such kind of circumstances? In such a situation, it should be the best way to “hurry up slowly,” that is, to be thoroughly consistent so that short-term emergency measures do not harm long-term goals. Given the conditions of coronomics and the lessons the world has learned from it at this stage, recovery of the economics, in the earlier sense of the term, should be completely ineffective. We are accustomed to the fact that in the post-crisis period, economic recovery in a sense implies a more or less back-off to what was before the crisis. Given that this time a completely different “crisis” is occurring, essential structural changes and important transformations in many areas of the economy are needed to overcome its consequences. One of the clear lessons that must to be learned from Coronomics is that returning to what was already before would not be the right course of action for the economies focused on the sustainable development. Georgia is a small open economy, and the fate of such economies has already been decided in advance: they will not be able to influence the global economy, and their efforts must be directed to protect themselves from the negative effects of the ongoing processes in the world. What are the priorities for such countries on this path if traditional sectors are vulnerable to certain types of crises and fail to cope with the task of generating revenue in extreme situations that are necessary, on the one hand, to balance their demands and, on the other hand, to meet external obligations? This is the reality that Georgia has faced in the face of coronomics. How did the Georgian economy meet the shock of COVID-19? 2019 will be a turning point in many years for assessing economic outcomes, not just in Georgia. What are the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and do they give a positive signal according to the data of this period? This article deals with the external economic aspects of these indicators. The current account deficit as of 2019 was $ 900.5 million, or 5.1 percent of gross domestic product. Historically, this is the best indicator in the history of independent Georgia. On the other hand, historically, the country›s external liabilities, which amount to $ 34.5 billion, are 1.9 times higher than Gross Domestic Product and 3.2 times higher than the country›s foreign financial assets; The country›s external debt was 1.1 times higher than GDP at the end of 2019, while imports accounted for 40.8 percent of total consumption (intermediate and final). Thus, Georgia›s positioning on the challenges of COVID-19 is completely unfavorable and critical. This article aims to discuss the main aspects of the country›s foreign sector accounts, the profitable and deficient articles of the balance of payments that traditionally determine the state of the current account, and how vulnerable these items are to external factors and shocks. The focus on this issue is to explore the ways in which it is possible to reduce the degree of dependence of the country›s economy on foreign shocks and achieve external economic stability. However, it should be noted that the format of the article is not sufficient for in-depth discussion of a number of causeand-effect issues, for the evaluation of perspectives, and for deeper and more substantiated reasoning. Therefore, it can be said that the paper forms the main postulates on the issues under consideration, which together and each of them deserves in-depth research, but not in terms of fragmentary time and content, but in a complex and permanent mode.

scholarly journals The importance of technological progress in measuring economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-55
Author(s):  
Faruk Hadžić
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Gross Value Added

Economic growth is one of the most important concepts in the world economy. Although some authors critically believe that the level and rates of economic growth do not necessarily reflect the actual standard of living, it still remains the main way to measure a country's well-being. Different views on the topic of economic growth, as well as the factors that influence it, have been present throughout the history of economic thought from the very beginning. Unlike many theories of economic growth, which believe that in the long run there will be diminishing returns on factors of production such as labor and capital, Paul Romer in his theory of endogenous growth believes that technological progress, through knowledge accumulation, idea creation and innovation, leads to increasing returns, and thus contributes more to long-term economic growth, unlike other factors. In this paper, on the example of economic growth in B&H, the hypothesis that the activities of knowledge-based services contribute more to the gross domestic product, compared to other sectors was tested. To prove the hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model was made based on a time series of 48 consecutive quarterly values of B&H gross domestic product and sectoral gross value added according to the income and production approach. In the model, activities were grouped into those that are predominantly labor-intensive, knowledge-based services, personal and social services, and other activities. The results showed that the average value of gross value added per worker employed in the sectors of knowledge-based services has a 2.5 higher contribution compared to a worker in the labour-intensive sectors and a 2.47 higher contribution compared to one worker in the personal and social services segment. Also, tests of the implemented model show that additional employment in the sectors of knowledge-based services leads to accelerated economic growth in B&H.

ANALISIS DETERMINAN KUALITAS LINGKUNGAN PERIODE 1999-2013

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-20
Author(s):  
Ersalina Tang
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Meat Consumption ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
World Data ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Gross Domestic Product, Energy Consumption, Electric Consumption, and Meat Consumption on CO2 emissions of 41 countries in the world using panel data from 1999 to 2013. After analyzing 41 countries in the world data, furthermore 17 countries in Asia was analyzed with the same period. This study utilized quantitative approach with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression method. The results of 41 countries in the world data indicates that Foreign Direct Investment, Gross Domestic Product, Energy Consumption, and Meat Consumption significantlyaffect Environmental Qualities which measured by CO2 emissions. Whilst the results of 17 countries in Asia data implies that Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Electric Consumption significantlyaffect Environmental Qualities. However, Gross Domestic Product and Meat Consumption does not affect Environmental Qualities.

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