scholarly journals Smart Distance Lab: A new methodology for assessing social distancing interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tessa Blanken ◽  
Charlotte Coosje Tanis ◽  
Floor Nauta ◽  
Fabian Dablander ◽  
Bonne Zijlstra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Central Importance ◽  
Immediate Feedback ◽  
Network Modelling ◽  
Behavioural Interventions ◽  
Social Distancing

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the central importance of human behaviour in mitigating the spread of the virus has become universally recognized. We present a methodology to systematically assess the effectiveness of behavioural interventions to stimulate social distancing. In addition, we demonstrate the feasibility of this framework in a large-scale natural experiment. In an experimental design, we varied behavioural interventions to evaluate the effect of face masks, walking directions, and immediate feedback on visitors’ contacts. We represent visitors as nodes, and their contacts as links in a contact network. Subsequently, we used network modelling to test for differences in these contact networks. We find no evidence that face masks influence social distancing, while unidirectional walking directions and buzzer feedback do positively impact social distancing. The presented methodology represents a practically feasible way to optimize social distancing interventions through scientific research and may directly inform policy.

scholarly journals Promoting physical distancing during COVID-19: a systematic approach to compare behavioral interventions

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tessa F. Blanken ◽  
Charlotte C. Tanis ◽  
Floor H. Nauta ◽  
Fabian Dablander ◽  
Bonne J. H. Zijlstra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Behavioral Interventions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Immediate Feedback ◽  
Network Modelling

AbstractIn the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, physical distancing behavior turned out to be key to mitigating the virus spread. Therefore, it is crucial that we understand how we can successfully alter our behavior and promote physical distancing. We present a framework to systematically assess the effectiveness of behavioral interventions to stimulate physical distancing. In addition, we demonstrate the feasibility of this framework in a large-scale natural experiment (N = 639) conducted during an art fair. In an experimental design, we varied interventions to evaluate the effect of face masks, walking directions, and immediate feedback on visitors’ contacts. We represent visitors as nodes, and their contacts as links in a contact network. Subsequently, we used network modelling to test for differences in these contact networks. We find no evidence that face masks influence physical distancing, while unidirectional walking directions and buzzer feedback do positively impact physical distancing. This study offers a feasible way to optimize physical distancing interventions through scientific research. As such, the presented framework provides society with the means to directly evaluate interventions, so that policy can be based on evidence rather than conjecture.

scholarly journals Smart Distance Lab Art Fair - An experimental data set on social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Coosje Tanis ◽  
Nina Leach ◽  
Sandra Jeanette Geiger ◽  
Floor H Nauta ◽  
Fabian Dablander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wearable Sensors ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Behavioural Interventions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Behavioural Experiment ◽  
Environmental Measures ◽  
Insight Into

In the absence of a vaccine, social distancing behaviour is pivotal to mitigate COVID-19 virus spread. In this large-scale behavioural experiment, we gathered data during Smart Distance Lab: The Art Fair (n = 787) between August 28 and 30, 2020 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. We varied walking directions (bidirectional, unidirectional, and no directions) and supplementary interventions (face mask and buzzer to alert visitors of 1.5 metres distance). We captured visitors' movements using cameras, registered their contacts (defined as within 1.5 metres) using wearable sensors, and assessed their attitudes toward COVID-19 as well as their experience during the event using questionnaires. We also registered environmental measures (e.g., humidity). In this paper, we describe this unprecedented, multi-modal experimental data set on social distancing, including psychological, behavioural, and environmental measures. The data set is available on Figshare and in a MySQL database. It can be used to gain insight into (attitudes toward) behavioural interventions promoting social distancing, to calibrate pedestrian models, and to inform new studies on behavioural interventions.

scholarly journals Smart Distance Lab’s art fair, experimental data on social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte C. Tanis ◽  
Nina M. Leach ◽  
Sandra J. Geiger ◽  
Floor H. Nauta ◽  
Fabian Dablander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wearable Sensors ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Behavioural Interventions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Behavioural Experiment ◽  
Environmental Measures ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractIn the absence of a vaccine, social distancing behaviour is pivotal to mitigate COVID-19 virus spread. In this large-scale behavioural experiment, we gathered data during Smart Distance Lab: The Art Fair (n = 839) between August 28 and 30, 2020 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. We varied walking directions (bidirectional, unidirectional, and no directions) and supplementary interventions (face mask and buzzer to alert visitors of 1.5 metres distance). We captured visitors’ movements using cameras, registered their contacts (defined as within 1.5 metres) using wearable sensors, and assessed their attitudes toward COVID-19 as well as their experience during the event using questionnaires. We also registered environmental measures (e.g., humidity). In this paper, we describe this unprecedented, multi-modal experimental data set on social distancing, including psychological, behavioural, and environmental measures. The data set is available on figshare and in a MySQL database. It can be used to gain insight into (attitudes toward) behavioural interventions promoting social distancing, to calibrate pedestrian models, and to inform new studies on behavioural interventions.

Getting the Measure of Twins

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Viney
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Effects ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Human Genetics ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Identical Twin ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Modern Biology ◽  
Stephen Jay Gould

Stephen Jay Gould, the biologist and author, once joked that were he an identical twin raised separately from his brother they could ‘hire ourselves out to a host of social scientists and practically name our fee’. In order to monetise Gould’s fantasy, one would want a form of twinship that could operate according to evidential, experimental, somatic and circumstantial ideals. And Gould admits that he and his brother would need to be viewed as ‘the only really adequate natural experiment for separating genetic from environmental effects in humans’. This chapter seeks to interrogate the evidential and experimental circumstances that may underpin the comic quips that guide modern biology. In human genetics, twins are used as experimental bodies that are made to matter in particular ways and for particular people; they become newly ‘animate’ for being enrolled into scientific research. Raised in cultures assumed to be alike or dissimilar, isolated by researchers for being valuable in the measured disentanglement of assembled molecular agents (which are sometimes distinguished from an assemblage referred to as an ‘environment’), twins achieve a status of experimental significance not just for what they do but also for what they are taken to be.

Inter-Ethnic Dynamics in the Wake of Terrorist Attacks: Evidence from the 2015 Baga Massacre

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Belmonte
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
The State ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Far North ◽  
North East

AbstractThis paper investigates the consequences for inter-group conflicts of terrorist attacks. I study the 2015 Baga massacre, a large scale attack conducted by Boko Haram at the far North-East state of Borno, Nigeria, as a quasi-natural experiment and examine a set of attitudes in the aftermath of the event of Christians and Muslims throughout the country. Comparing individuals, outside the region of Borno, interviewed by Afrobarometer immediately after the massacre and those interviewed the days before within same regions and holding fixed a number of individual characteristics, I document that the informational exposure to the event rendered Christians less amiable to neighboring Muslims and Muslims less likely to recognize the legitimacy of the state. Nonetheless, Muslims increased their view of the elections as a device to remove leaders in office, event that took place 2 months later with the election of the challenger, Muhammadu Buhari. My findings indicate that terrorist attacks may generate a relevant and heterogeneous backlash across ethnic groups.

scholarly journals Complex Network Modelling of Origin–Destination Commuting Flows for the COVID-19 Epidemic Spread Analysis in Italian Lombardy Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 4381
Author(s):  
Angela Lombardi ◽  
Nicola Amoroso ◽  
Alfonso Monaco ◽  
Sabina Tangaro ◽  
Roberto Bellotti
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Network Modelling ◽  
Lombardy Region ◽  
Commuting Flows ◽  
Dynamic Growth ◽  
Spread Analysis

Currently the whole world is affected by the COVID-19 disease. Italy was the first country to be seriously affected in Europe, where the first COVID-19 outbreak was localized in the Lombardy region. The further spreading of the cases led to the lockdown of the most affected regions in northern Italy and then the entire country. In this work we investigated an epidemic spread scenario in the Lombardy region by using the origin–destination matrix with information about the commuting flows among 1450 urban areas within the region. We performed a large-scale simulation-based modeling of the epidemic spread over the networks related to three main motivations, i.e., work, study and occasional transfers to quantify the potential contribution of each category of travellers to the spread of the epidemic process. Our findings outline that the three networks are characterised by different weight dynamic growth rates and that the network “work” has a critical role in the diffusion phenomenon showing the greatest contribution to the epidemic spread.

scholarly journals Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Raquel Bono ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTo ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40 cruise ships reporting COVID-19 infections. We apply mathematical modeling to assess the impact of testing strategies together with social distancing protocols on the spread of the novel coronavirus during ocean cruises using an individual-level stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We model the contact network, the potential importation of cases arising during shore excursions, the temporal course of infectivity at the individual level, the effects of social distancing strategies, different testing scenarios characterized by the test’s sensitivity profile, and testing frequency. Our findings indicate that PCR testing at embarkation and daily testing of all individuals aboard, together with increased social distancing and other public health measures, should allow for rapid detection and isolation of COVID-19 infections and dramatically reducing the probability of onboard COVID-19 community spread. In contrast, relying only on PCR testing at embarkation would not be sufficient to avert outbreaks, even when implementing substantial levels of social distancing measures.

scholarly journals W.S. Gosset and Some Neglected Concepts in Experimental Statistics: Guinnessometrics II

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 252-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen T. Ziliak
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Sample Size ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Significant Advance ◽  
Economic Approach ◽  
Barley Malt ◽  
Level Of Significance

AbstractStudent's exacting theory of errors, both random and real, marked a significant advance over ambiguous reports of plant life and fermentation asserted by chemists from Priestley and Lavoisier down to Pasteur and Johannsen, working at the Carlsberg Laboratory. One reason seems to be that William Sealy Gosset (1876–1937) aka “Student” – he of Student'st-table and test of statistical significance – rejected artificial rules about sample size, experimental design, and the level of significance, and took instead an economic approach to the logic of decisions made under uncertainty. In his job as Apprentice Brewer, Head Experimental Brewer, and finally Head Brewer of Guinness, Student produced small samples of experimental barley, malt, and hops, seeking guidance for industrial quality control and maximum expected profit at the large scale brewery. In the process Student invented or inspired half of modern statistics. This article draws on original archival evidence, shedding light on several core yet neglected aspects of Student's methods, that is, Guinnessometrics, not discussed by Ronald A. Fisher (1890–1962). The focus is on Student's small sample, economic approach to real error minimization, particularly in field and laboratory experiments he conducted on barley and malt, 1904 to 1937. Balanced designs of experiments, he found, are more efficient than random and have higher power to detect large and real treatment differences in a series of repeated and independent experiments. Student's world-class achievement poses a challenge to every science. Should statistical methods – such as the choice of sample size, experimental design, and level of significance – follow the purpose of the experiment, rather than the other way around? (JEL classification codes: C10, C90, C93, L66)

Disparity and Dynamics of Social Distancing Behaviors in Japan: An Investigation of mobile phone mobility data (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeyu Lyu ◽  
Hiroki Takikawa
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Over Time

BACKGROUND The availability of large-scale and fine-grained aggregated mobility data has allowed researchers to observe the dynamic of social distancing behaviors at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Despite the increasing attentions paid to this research agenda, limited studies have focused on the demographic factors related to mobility and the dynamics of social distancing behaviors has not been fully investigated. OBJECTIVE This study aims to assist in the design and implementation of public health policies by exploring the social distancing behaviors among various demographic groups over time. METHODS We combined several data sources, including mobile tracking data and geographical statistics, to estimate visiting population of entertainment venues across demographic groups, which can be considered as the proxy of social distancing behaviors. Then, we employed time series analyze methods to investigate how voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behaviors shift over time across demographic groups. RESULTS Our findings demonstrate distinct patterns of social distancing behaviors and their dynamics across age groups. The population in the entertainment venues comprised mainly of individuals aged 20–40 years, while according to the dynamics of the mobility index and the policy-induced behavior, among the age groups, the extent of reduction of the frequency of visiting entertainment venues during the pandemic was generally the highest among younger individuals. Also, our results indicate the importance of implementing the social distancing policy promptly to limit the spread of the COVID-19 infection. However, it should be noticed that although the policy intervention during the second wave in Japan appeared to increase the awareness of the severity of the pandemic and concerns regarding COVID-19, its direct impact has been largely decreased could only last for a short time. CONCLUSIONS At the time we wrote this paper, in Japan, the number of daily confirmed cases was continuously increasing. Thus, this study provides a timely reference for decision makers about the current situation of policy-induced compliance behaviors. On the one hand, age-dependent disparity requires target mitigation strategies to increase the intention of elderly individuals to adopt mobility restriction behaviors. On the other hand, considering the decreasing impact of self-restriction recommendations, the government should employ policy interventions that limit the resurgence of cases, especially by imposing stronger, stricter social distancing interventions, as they are necessary to promote social distancing behaviors and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL None

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