scholarly journals The Autonomy-validity Dilemma in Mechanical Prediction Procedures: The Quest for a Compromise

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marvin Neumann ◽  
Susan Niessen ◽  
Jorge Tendeiro ◽  
Rob Meijer
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
First Year ◽  
Total N ◽  
University Admission ◽  
Application Data ◽  
Mechanical Prediction ◽  
The Mind ◽  
Combining Information

A robust finding in psychological research is that combining information with a mechanical rule results in more valid predictions than combining information holistically in the mind. Nevertheless, information is typically combined holistically in practice, resulting in suboptimal predictions and decisions. Earlier research showed that decision makers are more likely to use mechanical prediction procedures when they retain autonomy in the decision-making process. However, it remains largely unknown how different autonomy-enhancing features affect predictive validity. Therefore, in two pre-registered studies (total N = 342), we investigated if and how prediction procedures can be designed such that they satisfy decision-makers’ autonomy needs and acceptance without reducing predictive validity. Based on archival application data from a university admission procedure, participants predicted applicants’ first-year GPA and chance of dropout. The results of Bayesian analyses showed that participants preferred prediction procedures in which they retained autonomy by choosing consistent predictor weights of a mechanical rule or by holistically adjusting the predictions of an optimal regression model. In general, these prediction procedures resulted in slightly higher predictive validity compared to fully holistic prediction. Providing participants with predictor validity information slightly increased predictive validity when participants could choose predictor weights, but not when making holistic predictions or adjusting optimal model predictions. Giving decision makers a role in designing mechanical rules through choosing weights based on explicit predictive validity information could help promote the implementation and validity of mechanical prediction in practice.

The Price of Predictability: Estimating Inconsistency Premiums in Social Interactions

2021 ◽  
pp. 014616722199853
Author(s):  
Judith Gerten ◽  
Michael K. Zürn ◽  
Sascha Topolinski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Total N ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
Variance Risk ◽  
Risky Option

For financial decision-making, people trade off the expected value (return) and the variance (risk) of an option, preferring higher returns to lower ones and lower risks to higher ones. To make decision-makers indifferent between a risky and risk-free option, the expected value of the risky option must exceed the value of the risk-free option by a certain amount—the risk premium. Previous psychological research suggests that similar to risk aversion, people dislike inconsistency in an interaction partner’s behavior. In eight experiments (total N = 2,412) we pitted this inconsistency aversion against the expected returns from interacting with an inconsistent partner. We identified the additional expected return of interacting with an inconsistent partner that must be granted to make decision-makers prefer a more profitable, but inconsistent partner to a consistent, but less profitable one. We locate this inconsistency premium at around 31% of the expected value of the risk-free option.

Haunted by a Doppelgänger

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bettina von Helversen ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Jörg Rieskamp
Keyword(s):  
Relevant Information ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Human Judgment ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
New Employees ◽  
High Performing ◽  
Facial Similarity ◽  
Similarity Effect ◽  
Judgment Strategy

Judging other people is a common and important task. Every day professionals make decisions that affect the lives of other people when they diagnose medical conditions, grant parole, or hire new employees. To prevent discrimination, professional standards require that decision makers render accurate and unbiased judgments solely based on relevant information. Facial similarity to previously encountered persons can be a potential source of bias. Psychological research suggests that people only rely on similarity-based judgment strategies if the provided information does not allow them to make accurate rule-based judgments. Our study shows, however, that facial similarity to previously encountered persons influences judgment even in situations in which relevant information is available for making accurate rule-based judgments and where similarity is irrelevant for the task and relying on similarity is detrimental. In two experiments in an employment context we show that applicants who looked similar to high-performing former employees were judged as more suitable than applicants who looked similar to low-performing former employees. This similarity effect was found despite the fact that the participants used the relevant résumé information about the applicants by following a rule-based judgment strategy. These findings suggest that similarity-based and rule-based processes simultaneously underlie human judgment.

The Effects of Decision Time on Perceptions of Decisions and Decision Makers in (Moral) Trade-Off Scenarios

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Katharina Spälti ◽  
Mark John Brandt ◽  
Marcel Zeelenberg
Keyword(s):  
Decision Process ◽  
Decision Time ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Process Information ◽  
Total N ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Financial Gain ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Sacred Values ◽  
Moral Context

People often have to make trade-offs. We study three types of trade-offs: 1) "secular trade-offs" where no moral or sacred values are at stake, 2) "taboo trade-offs" where sacred values are pitted against financial gain, and 3) "tragic trade-offs" where sacred values are pitted against other sacred values. Previous research (Critcher et al., 2011; Tetlock et al., 2000) demonstrated that tragic and taboo trade-offs are not only evaluated by their outcomes, but are also evaluated based on the time it took to make the choice. We investigate two outstanding questions: 1) whether the effect of decision time differs for evaluations of decisions compared to decision makers and 2) whether moral contexts are unique in their ability to influence character evaluations through decision process information. In two experiments (total N = 1434) we find that decision time affects character evaluations, but not evaluations of the decision itself. There were no significant differences between tragic trade-offs and secular trade-offs, suggesting that the decisions structure may be more important in evaluations than moral context. Additionally, the magnitude of the effect of decision time shows us that decision time, may be of less practical use than expected. We thus urge, to take a closer examination of the processes underlying decision time and its perception.

scholarly journals Performance in grade 12 mathematics and science predicts student nurses’ performance in first year science modules at a university in the Western Cape

Curationis ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Katlego D.T. Mthimunye ◽  
Felicity M. Daniels
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Academic Performance ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Life Science ◽  
Student Nurses ◽  
First Year ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Mathematics And Science ◽  
First Year Student

Background: The demand for highly qualified and skilled nurses is increasing in South Africa as well as around the world. Having a background in science can create a significant advantage for students wishing to enrol for an undergraduate nursing qualification because nursing as profession is grounded in scientific evidence.Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive validity of grade 12 mathematics and science on the academic performance of first year student nurses in science modules.Method: A quantitative research method using a cross-sectional predictive design was employed in this study. The participants included first year Bachelor of Nursing students enrolled at a university in the Western Cape, South Africa. Descriptive and inferential statistics were performed to analyse the data by using the IBM Statistical Package for Social Sciences versions 24. Descriptive analysis of all variables was performed as well as the Spearman’s rank correlation test to describe the relationship among the study variables. Standard multiple linear regressions analysis was performed to determine the predictive validity of grade 12 mathematics and science on the academic performance of first year student nurses in science modules.Results: The results of this study showed that grade 12 physical science is not a significant predictor (p > 0.062) of performance in first year science modules. The multiple linear regression revealed that grade 12 mathematics and life science grades explained 37.1% to 38.1% (R2 = 0.381 and adj R2 = 0.371) of the variation in the first year science grade distributions.Conclusion: Based on the results of the study it is evident that performance in grade 12 mathematics (β = 2.997) and life science (β = 3.175) subjects is a significant predictor (p < 0.001) of the performance in first year science modules for student nurses at the university identified for this study.

scholarly journals Nitrogen fertilizer value of animal slurries with different proportions of liquid and solid fractions: A 3-year study under field conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Betina Nørgaard Pedersen ◽  
Bent T. Christensen ◽  
Luca Bechini ◽  
Daniele Cavalli ◽  
Jørgen Eriksen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solid Fraction ◽  
Liquid Fraction ◽  
N Fertilizer ◽  
Organic N ◽  
First Year ◽  
Net N Mineralization ◽  
Pig Slurry ◽  
Total N ◽  
Plant Availability ◽  
Loamy Sand Soil

Abstract The plant availability of manure nitrogen (N) is influenced by manure composition in the year of application whereas some studies indicate that the legacy effect in following years is independent of the composition. The plant availability of N in pig and cattle slurries with variable contents of particulate matter was determined in a 3-year field study. We separated cattle and a pig slurry into liquid and solid fractions by centrifugation. Slurry mixtures with varying proportions of solid and liquid fraction were applied to a loamy sand soil at similar NH4+-N rates in the first year. Yields and N offtake of spring barley and undersown perennial ryegrass were compared to plots receiving mineral N fertilizer. The first year N fertilizer replacement value (NFRV) of total N in slurry mixtures decreased with increasing proportion of solid fraction. The second and third season NFRV averaged 6.5% and 3.8% of total N, respectively, for cattle slurries, and 18% and 7.5% for pig slurries and was not related to the proportion of solid fraction. The estimated net N mineralization of residual organic N increased nearly linearly with growing degree days (GDD) with a rate of 0.0058%/GDD for cattle and 0.0116%/GDD for pig slurries at 2000–5000 GDD after application. In conclusion NFRV of slurry decreased with increasing proportion of solid fraction in the first year. In the second year, NFRV of pig slurry N was significantly higher than that of cattle slurry N and unaffected by proportion between solid and liquid fraction.

scholarly journals Pain, Culture and Pedagogy: A Preliminary Investigation of Attitudes Towards “Reasonable” Pain Tolerance in the Grassroots Reproduction of a Culture of Risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 003329412098809
Author(s):  
Paul K. Miller ◽  
Sophie Van Der Zee ◽  
David Elliott
Keyword(s):  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Pain Perception ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Preliminary Investigation ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Pain Tolerance ◽  
Total N ◽  
Sporting Culture ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Relationship

In recent years a considerable body of psychological research has explored the relationship between membership of socio-cultural groups and personal pain perception. Rather less systematic attention has, however, been accorded to how such group membership(s) might influence individual attitudes towards the pain of others. In this paper, immersion in the culture of competitive sport, widely regarded as being exaggeratedly tolerant of risky behaviours around pain, is taken as a case-in-point with students of Physical Education (PE) in tertiary education as the key focus. PE students are highly-immersed in competitive sporting culture both academically and (typically) practically, and also represent a key nexus of cross-generational transmission regarding the norms of sport itself. Their attitudes towards the pain that others should reasonably tolerate during a range of activities, sporting and otherwise, were evaluated through a direct comparison with those of peers much less immersed in competitive sporting culture. In total, N=301 (144 PE, 157 non-PE) undergraduate students in the UK responded to a vignette-based survey. Therein, all participants were required to rate the pain (on a standard 0-10 scale) at which a standardised “other” should desist engagement with a set of five defined sporting and non-sporting tasks, each with weak and strong task severities. Results indicated that PE students were significantly more likely to expect others to persevere through higher levels of pain than their non-PE peers, but only during the sport-related tasks – an effect further magnified when task severity was high. In other tasks, there was no significant difference between groups, or valence of the effect was actually reversed. It is argued that the findings underscore some extant knowledge about the relationship between acculturated attitudes to pain, while also having practical implications for understanding sport-based pedagogy, and its potentially problematic role in the ongoing reproduction of a “culture of risk.”

scholarly journals An Ecosystem Innovation Framework: Assessing Mobility as a Service in Budapest

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3753
Author(s):  
Athena Roumboutsos ◽  
Ioanna Pagoni ◽  
Athena Tsirimpa ◽  
Amalia Polydoropoulou
Keyword(s):  
Urban Transport ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
First Year ◽  
Negative Externalities ◽  
Modal Shift ◽  
Present Contribution ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Document Collection ◽  
Smart Mobility ◽  
The City

Smart Mobility and the introduction of innovation in the complex and dynamic actor ecosystem of urban transport is faced with the need to manage change in order to secure sustainability and protect against negative externalities. The present contribution provides decision-makers with a tool to assess innovation strategies and monitor change over time. The proposed EcoSystem Innovation Framework (ESIF) is applied to a flagship innovation: Mobility as a Service (MaaS). The application concerns the City of Budapest, a location with highly-utilized resources and low car ownership, in contrast to other locations where MaaS is implemented. The ESIF is constructed through qualitative research (stakeholder workshops, interviews, document collection and analysis) for three (3) points in time: Summer 2018; Summer 2019 and end of 2020 (first year of the COVID-19 pandemic). The ESIF analysis was able to guide decision-makers and highlight potential future trends demonstrating the potential of the ESIF framework. For the City of Budapest, the ESIF highlighted the delicate balance in the promotion of MaaS, as the dichotomy between public and private on-demand mobility may trigger a negative modal shift. The COVID-19 pandemic has enhanced this potential. Despite public sector efforts, market opportunity has surfaced leading to contrasting interests in the ecosystem.

Validatie van de Nederlandstalige Core Self-evaluations vragenlijst

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Irene E. de Pater ◽  
Sonja Schinkel ◽  
Bernard A. Nijstad
Keyword(s):  
Work Performance ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Work Outcomes ◽  
Important Work ◽  
Dutch Version ◽  
Total N ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Convergent And Divergent Validity ◽  
Core Self

Validation of the Dutch Core Self-evaluations Scale Validation of the Dutch Core Self-evaluations Scale I.E. de Pater, S. Schinkel & B.A. Nijstad, Gedrag & Organisatie, volume 20, maart 2007, nr. 1, pp. 82-100 In this article we investigated the reliability and validity of the Dutch version of the Core Self-evaluations scale (CSES, Judge, Erez, Bono & Thoresen, 2003). Research into the English version has shown that CSE is a valid construct, consistently correlating with important work related criteria such as work satisfaction and work performance. Because of the relevance of these findings, we developed a Dutch version of this scale (NCSES). Results from four different studies (total N = 1389) showed that the NCSES is internally consistent, has a high test-retest reliability and has the predicted factor structure. Additionally, the convergent and divergent validity of the NCSES are high, and the NCSES correlates with important work outcomes, such job characteristics, job performance, and affective outcomes. It can be concluded that the NCSES is a valuable and effective instrument for applied psychological research.

scholarly journals Establishing a composite neonatal adverse outcome indicator using English hospital administrative data

2018 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. F502-F509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Ellin Knight ◽  
Sam J Oddie ◽  
Katie L Harron ◽  
Harriet K Aughey ◽  
Jan H van der Meulen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Quality ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Adverse Outcome ◽  
First Year ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Outcome Indicator ◽  
Hospital Administrative ◽  
First Year Of Life ◽  
Hospital Administrative Data

ObjectiveWe adapted a composite neonatal adverse outcome indicator (NAOI), originally derived in Australia, and assessed its feasibility and validity as an outcome indicator in English administrative hospital data.DesignWe used Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data containing information infants born in the English National Health Service (NHS) between 1 April 2014 and 31 March 2015. The Australian NAOI was mapped to diagnoses and procedure codes used within HES and modified to reflect data quality and neonatal health concerns in England. To investigate the concurrent validity of the English NAOI (E-NAOI), rates of NAOI components were compared with population-based studies. To investigate the predictive validity of the E-NAOI, rates of readmission and death in the first year of life were calculated for infants with and without E-NAOI components.ResultsThe analysis included 484 007 (81%) of the 600 963 eligible babies born during the timeframe. 114/148 NHS trusts passed data quality checks and were included in the analysis. The modified E-NAOI included 23 components (16 diagnoses and 7 procedures). Among liveborn infants, 5.4% had at least one E-NAOI component recorded before discharge. Among newborns discharged alive, the E-NAOI was associated with a significantly higher risk of death (0.81% vs 0.05%; p<0.001) and overnight hospital readmission (15.7% vs 7.1%; p<0.001) in the first year of life.ConclusionsA composite NAOI can be derived from English hospital administrative data. This E-NAOI demonstrates good concurrent and predictive validity in the first year of life. It is a cost-effective way to monitor neonatal outcomes.

Test-Retest Reliability of the Trauma and Life Events Self-Report Inventory

2000 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 750-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Hovens ◽  
I. Bramsen ◽  
H. M. van der Ploeg ◽  
I. E. W. Reuling
Keyword(s):  
Medical Students ◽  
Life Events ◽  
Self Report ◽  
First Year ◽  
Total N ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Retest Reliability ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Test Retest Reliability

Three groups of first-year male and female medical students (total N = 90) completed the Trauma and Life Events Self-report Inventory twice. Test-retest reliability for the three different time periods was .82, .89, and .75, respectively.

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