scholarly journals Polarization and extremism emerge from rational choice: Estimation as a solution to biased sampling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter D. Kvam ◽  
Abhay Alaukik ◽  
Callie E. Mims ◽  
Arina Martemyanova ◽  
Matthew Baldwin
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Degree Of Polarization ◽  
Biased Sampling ◽  
Preferential Choice ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Decision Efficiency

Polarization is often described as the product of biased information search, motivated reasoning, or other psychological biases. However, polarization and extremism can still occur in the absence of any bias or irrational thinking. In this paper, we show that polarization occurs among groups of decision makers who are implementing rational choice strategies that maximize decision efficiency. This occurs because extreme information enables decision makers to make up their minds and stop considering new information, whereas moderate information is unlikely to trigger a decision and is thus under-represented in the information decision-makers collect. Furthermore, groups of decision makers will generate extremists -- individuals who hold strong views despite being uninformed and impulsive. In re-analyses of seven empirical studies spanning perceptual and preferential choice and a new study examining politically and affectively charged decisions, we show that both polarization and extremism manifest when decision makers gather information to make a choice. Polarization did not occur, however, when participants made an inference about the difference between two quantities as opposed to deciding which one is superior. Estimation therefore offers a theoretically-motivated intervention that can increase the amount of information people consider and reduce the degree of polarization and extremism among groups of individuals.

scholarly journals Polarization and extremism emerge from rational choice

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter D. Kvam ◽  
Matthew Baldwin
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Irrational Thinking ◽  
Preferential Choice ◽  
New Information ◽  
Decision Efficiency ◽  
Biased Information

{Polarization is often thought to be the product of biased information search, motivated reasoning, or other psychological biases. However, polarization and extremism can still occur in the absence of any bias or irrational thinking. In this paper, we show that polarization occurs among groups of decision makers who are implementing rational choice strategies that maximize decision efficiency. This occurs because extreme information enables decision makers to make up their minds and stop considering new information, whereas moderate information is unlikely to trigger a decision. Furthermore, groups of decision makers will generate extremists -- individuals who hold strong views despite being uninformed and impulsive. In re-analyses of seven previous empirical studies on both perceptual and preferential choice, we show that both polarization and extremism manifest across a wide variety of choice paradigms. We conclude by offering theoretically-motivated interventions that could reduce polarization and extremism by altering the incentives people have when gathering information.

Rational Deterrence Theory: I Think, Therefore I Deter

1989 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ned Lebow ◽  
Janice Gross Stein
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Strategic Behavior ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Deterrence Theory ◽  
Domestic Constraints ◽  
Rational Calculation ◽  
Rational Choice Theories

Deterrence theories purport to supply the auxiliary assumptions rational choice theories need to predict rational strategic behavior. They generally assume that would-be initiators are (i) instrumentally rational; (2) risk-prone gain-maximizers; (3) free of domestic constraints; and (4) able to identify themselves correctly as defenders or challengers. These assumptions are contradicted by empirical studies that indicate that risk-prone, gain-maximizing initiators are relatively uncommon; that leaders at times calculate as deterrence theories expect, but behave contrary to their predictions; and that the calculus of initiators generally depends on factors other than those identified by deterrence theories. Deductive theories of deterrence are also inadequate because they do not define their scope conditions. Nor can they accommodate deviation by initiators from processes of rational calculation. Rational deterrence theories are poorly specified theories about nonexistent decision makers operating in nonexistent environments.

scholarly journals Testing Microstructure Theory on Karachi Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
Nadeem Nazir ◽  
Hamad Raza
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Bid Ask Spread ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Liquidity Measures ◽  
Trading Volumes

We are analyzing the various measures of liquidity of Karachi Stock Exchange Market on the basis of microstructure theory. The concept of microstructure is focusing on the difference between the supply price and demand price of securities in any market. In other words, the price formation of the bid-ask spread is based on the supply and demand prices. Empirical studies conducted by different researchers have made a lot of contribution in this regards. As they concluded that bid-ask spread is constituted on the basis of different theories of liquidity. Historical background of microstructure literature shows that bid–ask spread constitutes the fundamental measure of the liquidity in any market. As a result of this it contributes to identify the best structure of stock market. There may be other admitted measures of liquidity. In the opinion of different researchers the internationally accepted measures of liquidity formation in any market include the Lambda, Turnover of the concerned security, Depth of that market, The Cost of Trip, Trade of security, etc. And they work as strong indicators of liquidity. Our study is a contribution to the literature as we try to explore those correlated variables that can be significantly and sequentially change. And they are serving a measure of the individual’s securities that are already traded in Karachi Stock Exchange Market. These admitted variables of our study are trading volumes of securities, number of transactions in the market, security return, volatility of securities prices, arrival of new information etc. we take a sample of 350 quoted securities in Karachi Stock Exchange Market, from 1990-2015. As far as result is concerned, depth showed a negative correlation with all spread measures in the Karachi Stock Exchange Market. But at the same time, perfect positive correlations are shown between spread measures in the analysis. It is a perfect proof of existence and validity of these liquidity measures in KSE. The results is evidencing that the arrival of new information, return on investment, volume of traded securities; are contributing a lot to explain significantly the sequential changes in KSE. At the same time various measures of the securities regarding liquidity are proving and confirming the previous researcher’s claim. In the end, analysts are in a better position to explain that the arrival of new information from different sources and different groups is functioning as a principal aspect for the variant contributories of liquidness of the Karachi Stock Exchange.

Auditors' and Investors' Perceptions of the “Expectation Gap”

2001 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 345-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. McEnroe ◽  
Stanley C. Martens
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Primary User ◽  
Financial Statement ◽  
User Group ◽  
Accounting Profession ◽  
The Public ◽  
Government Accounting ◽  
Expectation Gap ◽  
The Difference

The auditing “expectation gap” refers to the difference between (1) what the public and other financial statement users perceive auditors' responsibilities to be and (2) what auditors believe their responsibilities entail. The notion of this divergence receives much attention in the accounting literature (i.e., Commission on Auditors' Responsibilities 1978; Guy and Sullivan 1988; AICPA 1993; U.S. Government Accounting Office 1996). Although prior empirical studies encompass certain expectations associated with a range of audit services, these papers often involve the opinions of bankers as the primary user group employed in the research (Nair and Rittenberg 1987; Lowe and Pany 1995). In contrast, this study extends the prior research by directly comparing audit partners' and investors' perceptions of auditors' responsibilities involving various dimensions of the attest function. We conducted the study to determine if an expectation gap currently exists and we find that it does; investors have higher expectations for various facets and/or assurances of the audit than do auditors. Our findings serve as evidence that the accounting profession should engage in appropriate measures to reduce this expectation gap.

scholarly journals Condensation of SIP Particles and Sticky Brownian Motion

2021 ◽  
Vol 183 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Ayala ◽  
Gioia Carinci ◽  
Frank Redig
Keyword(s):  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Interacting Particle Systems ◽  
Particle Systems ◽  
Self Duality ◽  
Inclusion Process ◽  
Interacting Particle ◽  
New Information ◽  
Homogeneous Product ◽  
Coarsening Dynamics ◽  
The Difference

AbstractWe study the symmetric inclusion process (SIP) in the condensation regime. We obtain an explicit scaling for the variance of the density field in this regime, when initially started from a homogeneous product measure. This provides relevant new information on the coarsening dynamics of condensing interacting particle systems on the infinite lattice. We obtain our result by proving convergence to sticky Brownian motion for the difference of positions of two SIP particles in the sense of Mosco convergence of Dirichlet forms. Our approach implies the convergence of the probabilities of two SIP particles to be together at time t. This, combined with self-duality, allows us to obtain the explicit scaling for the variance of the fluctuation field.

scholarly journals On the Juridical Relevance of the Phenomenological Notion of Person in Max Scheler and Edith Stein

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Galofaro
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Edmund Husserl ◽  
Phenomenological Analysis ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Edith Stein ◽  
Max Scheler ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Social Units

AbstractThe paper presents a semiotic interpretation of the phenomenological debate on the notion of person, focusing in particular on Edmund Husserl, Max Scheler, and Edith Stein. The semiotic interpretation lets us identify the categories that orient the debate: collective/individual and subject/object. As we will see, the phenomenological analysis of the relation between person and social units such as the community, the association, and the mass shows similarities to contemporary socio-semiotic models. The difference between community, association, and mass provides an explanation for the establishment of legal systems. The notion of person we inherit from phenomenology can also be useful in facing juridical problems raised by the use of non-human decision-makers such as machine learning algorithms and artificial intelligence applications.

scholarly journals What Countries Select More Experienced Leaders? The PolEx Measure of Political Experience

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Alexander Baturo ◽  
Johan A. Elkink
Keyword(s):  
Career Paths ◽  
Latent Variable ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Political Experience ◽  
National Leaders ◽  
Regime Types ◽  
The Difference

Abstract How can one assess which countries select more experienced leaders for the highest office? There is wide variation in prior career paths of national leaders within, and even more so between, regime types. It is therefore challenging to obtain a truly comparative measure of political experience; empirical studies have to rely on proxies instead. This article proposes PolEx, a measure of political experience that abstracts away from the details of career paths and generalizes based on the duration, quality and breadth of an individual's experience in politics. The analysis draws on a novel data set of around 2,000 leaders from 1950 to 2017 and uses a Bayesian latent variable model to estimate PolEx. The article illustrates how the new measure can be used comparatively to assess whether democracies select more experienced leaders. The authors find that while on average they do, the difference with non-democracies has declined dramatically since the early 2000s. Future research may leverage PolEx to investigate the role of prior political experience in, for example, policy making and crisis management.

45° REFLECTOMETRY OF SEMICONDUCTOR QUANTUM WELLS

2001 ◽  
Vol 15 (17n19) ◽  
pp. 683-687
Author(s):  
A. SILVA-CASTILLO ◽  
F. PEREZ-RODRIGUEZ
Keyword(s):  
Quantum Well ◽  
Quantum Wells ◽  
Growth Direction ◽  
Angle Of Incidence ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
New Information ◽  
Difference Formula ◽  
Exciton Polaritons ◽  
The Difference ◽  
First Time

We have applied the 45° reflectometry for the first time to study exciton-polaritons in quantum wells. The 45° reflectometry is a new polarization-modulation technique, which is based on the measurement of the difference [Formula: see text] between the p-polarization reflectivity (Rp) and the squared s-polarization reflectivity [Formula: see text] at an angle of incidence of 45°. We show that [Formula: see text] spectra may provide qualitatively new information on the exciton-polariton modes in a quantum well. These optical spectra turn out to be very sensitive to the zeros of the dielectric function along the quantum-well growth direction and, therefore, allow to identify the resonances associated with the Z exciton-polariton mode. We demonstrate that 45° reflectometry could be a powerful tool for studying Z exciton-polariton modes in near-surface quantum wells, which are difficult to observe in simple spectra of reflectivity Rp

Study of the Cause of Lost Circulation while Drilling Fractured Carbonates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Ruzhnikov
Keyword(s):  
Success Rate ◽  
Drilling Fluid ◽  
Circulation Zone ◽  
Lost Circulation ◽  
Carbonate Formation ◽  
New Information ◽  
Fractured Carbonate ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Fractured Carbonates

Abstract Fractured carbonate formations are prone to lost circulation, which affects the well construction process and has longtime effect on well integrity. Depending on the nature of losses (either induced or related to local dissolutions) the success rate is different when the induced losses can be cured with a high chance, and the one related to dissolutions may take a long time, and despite multiple attempts, the success rate is normally low. To have a better understanding of the complete losses across the fractured carbonates, a series of studies were initiated. First, to understand the strength of the loss zone, the fracture closing pressure was evaluated studying the fluid level in the annulus and back-calculating the effect of drilling fluid density. Second, the formation properties across the loss circulation zones were studied using microresistivity images, dip data, and imaging of fluid-saturated porous media. The results of the studies brought a lot of new information and explained some previous mysteries. The formation strength across the lost circulation zone was measured, and it was confirmed that it remains constant despite other changes of the well construction parameters. Additionally, it was confirmed that the carbonates are naturally highly fractured, having over 900 fractures along the wellbore. The loss circulation zone was characterized, and it was confirmed that the losses are not related to the fractures but rather to the karst, dissolution, and megafractures. The size and dip of the fractures were identified, and it was proven the possibility to treat them with conventional materials. However, the size of identified megafractures and karst zones exceeding the fractures by 10 times in true vertical depth, and in horizontal wells the difference is even higher due to measured depth. This new information helps to explain the previous unsuccessful attempts with the conventional lost circulation materials. The manuscript provides new information on the fractured carbonate formation characterization not available previously in the literature. It allows to align the subsurface and drilling visions regarding the nature of the losses and further develop the curing mechanisms.

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