scholarly journals Polarization and extremism emerge from rational choice

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter D. Kvam ◽  
Matthew Baldwin
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Irrational Thinking ◽  
Preferential Choice ◽  
New Information ◽  
Decision Efficiency ◽  
Biased Information

{Polarization is often thought to be the product of biased information search, motivated reasoning, or other psychological biases. However, polarization and extremism can still occur in the absence of any bias or irrational thinking. In this paper, we show that polarization occurs among groups of decision makers who are implementing rational choice strategies that maximize decision efficiency. This occurs because extreme information enables decision makers to make up their minds and stop considering new information, whereas moderate information is unlikely to trigger a decision. Furthermore, groups of decision makers will generate extremists -- individuals who hold strong views despite being uninformed and impulsive. In re-analyses of seven previous empirical studies on both perceptual and preferential choice, we show that both polarization and extremism manifest across a wide variety of choice paradigms. We conclude by offering theoretically-motivated interventions that could reduce polarization and extremism by altering the incentives people have when gathering information.

scholarly journals Polarization and extremism emerge from rational choice: Estimation as a solution to biased sampling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter D. Kvam ◽  
Abhay Alaukik ◽  
Callie E. Mims ◽  
Arina Martemyanova ◽  
Matthew Baldwin
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Degree Of Polarization ◽  
Biased Sampling ◽  
Preferential Choice ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Decision Efficiency

Polarization is often described as the product of biased information search, motivated reasoning, or other psychological biases. However, polarization and extremism can still occur in the absence of any bias or irrational thinking. In this paper, we show that polarization occurs among groups of decision makers who are implementing rational choice strategies that maximize decision efficiency. This occurs because extreme information enables decision makers to make up their minds and stop considering new information, whereas moderate information is unlikely to trigger a decision and is thus under-represented in the information decision-makers collect. Furthermore, groups of decision makers will generate extremists -- individuals who hold strong views despite being uninformed and impulsive. In re-analyses of seven empirical studies spanning perceptual and preferential choice and a new study examining politically and affectively charged decisions, we show that both polarization and extremism manifest when decision makers gather information to make a choice. Polarization did not occur, however, when participants made an inference about the difference between two quantities as opposed to deciding which one is superior. Estimation therefore offers a theoretically-motivated intervention that can increase the amount of information people consider and reduce the degree of polarization and extremism among groups of individuals.

Rational Deterrence Theory: I Think, Therefore I Deter

1989 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ned Lebow ◽  
Janice Gross Stein
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Strategic Behavior ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Deterrence Theory ◽  
Domestic Constraints ◽  
Rational Calculation ◽  
Rational Choice Theories

Deterrence theories purport to supply the auxiliary assumptions rational choice theories need to predict rational strategic behavior. They generally assume that would-be initiators are (i) instrumentally rational; (2) risk-prone gain-maximizers; (3) free of domestic constraints; and (4) able to identify themselves correctly as defenders or challengers. These assumptions are contradicted by empirical studies that indicate that risk-prone, gain-maximizing initiators are relatively uncommon; that leaders at times calculate as deterrence theories expect, but behave contrary to their predictions; and that the calculus of initiators generally depends on factors other than those identified by deterrence theories. Deductive theories of deterrence are also inadequate because they do not define their scope conditions. Nor can they accommodate deviation by initiators from processes of rational calculation. Rational deterrence theories are poorly specified theories about nonexistent decision makers operating in nonexistent environments.

Process Accountability as a De-Escalation Technique

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-74
Author(s):  
Klaus Moser ◽  
Hans-Georg Wolff ◽  
Roman Soucek
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Employment Relationship ◽  
Escalation Of Commitment ◽  
Tunnel Vision ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Performance Problems ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Biased Information

Abstract. Escalation of commitment occurs when a course of action is continued despite repeated drawbacks (e.g., maintaining an employment relationship despite severe performance problems). We analyze process accountability (PA) as a de-escalation technique that helps to discontinue a failing course of action and show how time moderates both the behavioral and cognitive processes involved: (1) Because sound decisions should be based on (hopefully unbiased) information search, which requires time to gather, the effect of PA on de-escalation increases over time. (2) Because continuing information search creates behavioral commitment, the debiasing effect of PA on information search diminishes over time. (3) Consistent with the tunnel vision notion, the effects of less biased information search on de-escalation decrease over time.

scholarly journals Fuzzy-based Description of Computational Complexity of Central Nervous Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
Piotr Prokopowicz ◽  
Dariusz Mikołajewski ◽  
Krzysztof Tyburek ◽  
Piotr Kotlarz
Keyword(s):  
Applied Sciences ◽  
Complex Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Subjective Beliefs ◽  
Uncertainty Model ◽  
New Information ◽  
Central Nervous Systems ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Point Of Departure

Computational intelligence algorithms are currently capable of dealing with simple cognitive processes, but still remain inefficient compared with the human brain’s ability to learn from few exemplars or to analyze problems that have not been defined in an explicit manner. Generalization and decision-making processes typically require an uncertainty model that is applied to the decision options while relying on the probability approach. Thus, models of such cognitive functions usually interact with reinforcement-based learning to simplify complex problems. Decision-makers are needed to choose from the decision options that are available, in order to ensure that the decision-makers’ choices are rational. They maximize the subjective overall utility expected, given by the outcomes in different states and weighted with subjective beliefs about the occurrence of those states. Beliefs are captured by probabilities and new information is incorporated using the Bayes’ law. Fuzzy-based models described in this paper propose a different – they may serve as a point of departure for a family of novel methods enabling more effective and neurobiologically reliable brain simulation that is based on fuzzy logic techniques and that turns out to be useful in both basic and applied sciences. The approach presented provides a valuable insight into understanding the aforementioned processes, doing that in a descriptive, fuzzy-based manner, without presenting a complex analysis

Your Facts or Mine?

2019 ◽  
pp. 73-92
Author(s):  
Morgan Marietta ◽  
David C. Barker
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Cognitive Psychology ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Core Values ◽  
Personal Knowledge ◽  
Detailed Review ◽  
Psychological Mechanisms

Chapter 5 commences Part II of the book, Causes. It reviews the well-demonstrated psychological mechanisms that lead citizens toward perceiving only a specific set of facts, all the while believing in their sophisticated and unbiased appraisal. A constellation of reinforcing mechanisms adds up to citizens projecting their priors onto their perceptions. The chapter provides a detailed review of the psychological foundations of fact perceptions. It begins by describing the power of personal knowledge (highlighting the notorious “dress controversy” of 2015) and continues to discuss the contributions of cognitive psychology, social psychology, the theory of motivated reasoning, and the perspective that “reasoning is for arguing.” It concludes that all of these literatures point to a powerful role for core values as shapers of reality perceptions, noting the lack of empirical studies that directly test that hypothesis.

scholarly journals Anxiety and the Ecological Crisis: An Analysis of Eco-Anxiety and Climate Anxiety

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 7836 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pihkala Panu
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Ecological Crisis ◽  
Research Interest ◽  
Public Discussion ◽  
New Information ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Contemporary Media ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ecological Grief

Eco-anxiety and climate anxiety are widely discussed in contemporary media and are subjects of growing research interest. However, there is a lack of research about the definitions and variations of these phenomena. This article analyzes various views of eco-anxiety from a wide range of disciplines. Insights from various anxiety theories are used to discuss empirical studies about forms of eco-anxiety. The article points out that uncertainty, unpredictability, and uncontrollability seem to be important factors in eco-anxiety. Most forms of eco-anxiety appear to be non-clinical, but cases of “pathological” eco-anxiety are also discussed. Other relevant terms and phenomena are scrutinized, such as ecological grief, solastalgia, and ecological trauma. The relationship between studies on eco-anxiety and research about ecological emotions and affect is probed. Eco-anxiety is found to be closely connected to fear and worry, but several disciplines include discussion of its character as existential anxiety. Psychosocial and sociological perspectives point out that social dynamics shape forms of eco-anxiety in profound ways. While paralyzing forms of eco-anxiety emerge as a problem, it is noted that eco-anxiety manifests itself also as “practical anxiety”, which leads to gathering of new information and reassessment of behavior options. This variety of forms of eco-anxiety should be taken into account in healthcare and public discussion.

scholarly journals Wine tourist valuation of information sources: the role of prior travel

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 416-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erick T. Byrd ◽  
Bonnie Canziani ◽  
James S. Boles ◽  
Nicholas Carlton Williamson ◽  
Sevil Sonmez
Keyword(s):  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Information Sources ◽  
Experiential Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wine Tourism ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Us ◽  
Promotional Efforts ◽  
Use Of Information Sources

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine winery visitors’ use of information sources in making decisions regarding the choice of wineries to visit. Enrichment theory is used as a framework for determining how previous experience influences the decision on how much and what type of information individuals will use when planning a trip using wine tourism as the context for the research. Design/methodology/approach A visitor study was conducted at 23 wineries in the US Southeast. Data were collected from winery visitors using a structured self-administered questionnaire. Findings Results from 832 consumers indicate that an individual’s previous travel systematically influences the number and type of information sources that they will seek out when making future consumer decisions. Findings confirmed the hypothesized expectations about wine tourist information search behavior and help to partially explain the nature of bounded rationality in the case of tourists’ winery visit decisions. Research limitations/implications Because the study focused only on winery visitors in the US Southeast, the research results may lack generalizability. Practical implications These findings can assist winery owners and destinations with wineries in their promotional efforts. Of major importance is the finding that increases in experiential knowledge from prior travel are monotonically associated with increases in the number of information sources marked to be valuable in selecting a winery. The influence of experience is particularly dramatic in that the mean number of information sources marked to be valuable moves from a low of 2.5 to a high of 10.0 out of 16 as travel experience increases. Originality/value The study contributed significant and useful findings that advance the application of enrichment theory to wine tourism. Enrichment theory does not currently differentiate between types of knowledge that enrich a consumer’s ability to more easily encode and use new information. The current study confirms that experiential knowledge is an important knowledge construct in models of bounded rationality.

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