Kiedy przejść na emeryturę? Opłacalność odraczania emerytury w systemie emerytalnym ZUS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marian Wiśniewski
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
The Individual

In this chapter, we analyze the circumstances that one should consider while deciding when to retire. In Poland, over 90 percent of workers decide to retire either at the retirement age or shortly after. However, the results of our models indicate that ability to compare the individual and the general life expectancy allows one to benefit from postponing retirement. The demographic causes and the current Polish pension scheme make the odds of profit in favour of women.

scholarly journals Designing benefit rules for flexible retirement: Welfare vs. redistribution

2011 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Eső ◽  
A. Simonovits ◽  
J. Tóth
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Incentive Compatibility ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Second Best ◽  
Flexible Retirement ◽  
Individual Incentive ◽  
Scalar Multiple ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Individual

With flexible (variable) retirement every individual determines his optimal retirement age, depending on a common benefit-retirement age schedule and his life expectancy. The government maximises the average expected lifetime utility minus a scalar multiple of the variance of the lifetime pension balances to achieve harmony between the maximisation of welfare and the minimisation of redistribution. Since the government cannot identify types by life expectancy, it must take the individual incentive compatibility constraints into account. Second-best schedules strongly reduce the variances of benefits and of retirement ages of the so-called actuarially fair system, thus achieving higher social welfare and lower redistribution.

Pension Reform in Russia: Assessing the Susceptibility of GDP Production to a Shift in the Number of the Working-Age Population

2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.

scholarly journals Disaggregation of official demographic projections in sub-groups by education level: the neglected “composition effect” in the future path of life expectancy

Genus ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Ginebri ◽  
Carlo Lallo
Keyword(s):  
High Education ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Education Level ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Composition Effect ◽  
Education Group ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
Low Education ◽  
Mortality Differential ◽  
Education Groups

AbstractWe developed an innovative method to break down official population forecasts by educational level. The mortality rates of the high education group and low education group were projected using an iterative procedure, whose starting point was the life tables by education level for Italy, based on the year 2012. We provide a set of different scenarios on the convergence/divergence of the mortality differential between the high and low education groups. In each scenario, the demographic size and the life expectancy of the two sub-groups were projected annually over the period 2018–2065. We compared the life expectancy paths in the whole population and in the sub-groups. We found that in all of our projections, population life expectancy converges to the life expectancy of the high education group. We call this feature of our outcomes the “composition effect”, and we show how highly persistent it is, even in scenarios where the mortality differential between social groups is assumed to decrease over time. In a midway scenario, where the mortality differential is assumed to follow an intermediate path between complete disappearance in year 2065 and stability at the 2012 level, and in all the scenarios with a milder convergence hypothesis, our “composition effect” prevails over the effect of convergence for men and women. For instance, assuming stability in the mortality differential, we estimated a life expectancy increase at age 65 of 2.9 and 2.6 years for men, and 3.2 and 3.1 for women, in the low and high education groups, respectively, over the whole projection period. Over the same period, Italian official projections estimate an increase of 3.7 years in life expectancy at age 65 for the whole population. Our results have relevant implications for retirement and ageing policies, in particular for those European countries that have linked statutory retirement age to variations in population life expectancies. In all the scenarios where the composition effect is not offset by a strong convergence of mortality differentials, we show that the statutory retirement age increases faster than the group-specific life expectancies, and this finding implies that the expected time spent in retirement will shrink for the whole population. This potential future outcome seems to be an unintended consequence of the indexation rule.

Adjustment of Legal Retirement Age in Chinese Mainland

2011 ◽  
Vol 422 ◽  
pp. 684-687
Author(s):  
Shi Bin Song ◽  
Qi Song ◽  
Xiao Jun Xue ◽  
Yun Wan
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Chinese Mainland ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Legal Retirement Age

With the coming rush of population aging and the termination of the demographic dividend, the question on the extension of the legal retirement age is becoming a hot topic in the community. This paper analyzes factors affecting retirement age，such　as demographic dividend, life expectancy, years of education per capita, supply and demand situation in labor market. From these factors, reasonable quantitative reference standards can be introduced.

Trends in Partial Disability-Free Life Expectancy between the Ages of 45 and 70 in Canada, 2000–2014

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Judith Lefebvre ◽  
Yves Carrière
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Utility Index ◽  
Health Utility ◽  
Canadian Community Health Survey ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Utility Index ◽  
Community Health Survey ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Disability Free Life Expectancy ◽  
Sullivan Method

Abstract To better evaluate the benefits of a possible increase in the normal retirement age, this article proposes to examine recent trends in the health status of Canadians between 45 and 70 years of age. Using the Sullivan method, trends from 2000 to 2014 in partial disability-free life expectancy (PDFLE) between the ages of 45 and 70 years are computed. Disability is estimated using attributes of the Health Utility Index correlated with the capacity to work, and is looked at by level of severity. Data from the Canadian Community Health Survey were used to estimate the prevalence of disability. Results reveal a slight increase in partial life expectancy between the ages of 45 and 70, and a larger number of those years spent in poor health since the beginning of the 2000s. Hence, this study brings no evidence in support of the postponement of the normal retirement age if this policy were solely based on gains in life expectancy.

The Long-Term Financial Sustainability of the Civil Service Pension Scheme in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-178
Author(s):  
Sheila Rose Darmaraj ◽  
Suresh Narayanan
Keyword(s):  
Civil Service ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Replacement Rate ◽  
Deficit Model ◽  
Pension Payments

The civil service pension scheme (CSPS) in Malaysia is a defined benefit (DB), non-contributory system directly funded from the budget. An aging population, rising life expectancy, and ballooning pension payments underscore the need for reform. An annual pension deficit model was used to estimate the pension deficit over a period of 75 years under eight scenarios that compare the current scheme with changes in the pension deficit when three policy variables—retirement age, contribution rate, and replacement rate—are manipulated. We found the current scheme will not be financially sustainable. By increasing the retirement age, introducing employee contributions, and reducing the replacement rate, it is possible to delay the emergence of deficits and lengthen the period of sustainability of the scheme. However, a radical makeover is necessary to be fully sustainable and this might not be politically feasible.

On the management of retirement age indexed to life expectancy: a scenario analysis of the Italian longevity experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-231
Author(s):  
Mariarosaria Coppola ◽  
Maria Russolillo ◽  
Rosaria Simone
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Security System ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Model Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mortality Projection ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to measure the financial impact on social security system of a recently proposed indexation mechanism for retirement age by considering the Italian longevity experience. The analysis is motivated by the progressive increase in life expectancy at advanced age, which is rapidly bringing to the fore noticeable socio-economic consequences in most industrialized countries. Among those, the impact on National Social Security systems is particularly relevant if people live longer than expected; this will lead to greater financial exposure for pension providers. Design/methodology/approach Referring to the Italian population for illustrative purposes, the authors contemplate different scenarios for mortality projection methods and for the implementation of pension age shift while accounting for gender and cohort gaps and model risk. Synthetic indicators to measure the impact of the indexation mechanism on social security system are introduced on the basis of pension cash flows. Findings An indexation policy that manages gender gap while adjusting retirement age for varying life expectancy is proposed. As a result, sustainability of public retirement expenditure is improved. Originality/value The paper is a concise scenario analysis of the reduction of costs and risks that pension providers would have if the system resorted to link retirement age to life expectancy. The ideas fostered by the paper follow a recent proposal of the Authors on a flexible retirement scheme that deals with model risk for mortality projection and accounts for gender gap in mortality rates.

Communicating about raising the retirement age using frames and counterframes

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bart Vyncke ◽  
Baldwin Van Gorp
Keyword(s):  
Total Sample ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Meaning Of Work ◽  
Framing Analysis ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Existing Frames ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose This study discusses the frames that were used in the public debate about raising the retirement age in Belgium from 65 to 67 years. The purpose of this paper is to gain insight into the prevailing frames in order to develop counterframes that are less problematizing and can be used to bring more nuance to the debate. Design/methodology/approach An inductive framing analysis was conducted, using articles from Flemish newspapers and magazines, published in a two-year period (March 2013-March 2015). This sample was complemented by a convenience sample of texts by various stakeholders. The total sample consisted of 182 texts. Findings The analysis yielded four problematizing frames and six deproblematizing counterframes. They cover both the meaning of work for the individual, and the effect that working longer has on society. Practical implications The overview of the frames can be used as a tool to analyze existing communication, and to bring more nuance to future communication by introducing deproblematizing perspectives into the debate regarding the need to work for a longer period of time. Originality/value In addition to giving an overview of existing frames, the study also constructed alternatives which can be used to deproblematize the issue of having to work longer.

Significance to human health of carbamazepine detected in fruits and vegetables irrigated with recycled water

2016 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. 1059-1062 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahman Sheikh
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Life Span ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Fruits And Vegetables ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Daily Intake ◽  
Food Crops ◽  
Acceptable Daily Intake ◽  
Recycled Water ◽  
The Individual

The relevance and significance of the findings of chemicals of emerging concern at nanogram concentrations in recycled water is critically important for the consumers of these crops. The relevance and significance of these chemicals at these concentrations is placed in perspective in terms of the number of years of consumption necessary to accrue one acceptable daily intake every day, over a lifetime, specifically for carbamazepine. In this paper, the number of years is calculated and found to far exceed the maximum human life expectancy, even assuming that the individual consumes a mix of fruits and vegetables irrigated with recycled water throughout an 80-year life span, excluding other food crops free from carbamazepine.

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