Estimation of Regional Dynamics of the Cost of Potatoes in Agricultural Organizations for Forecasting the Development of Agri-Food Systems

To forecast the cost of potatoes in agricultural organizations as part of a system of models for forecasting agri-food systems developed at All-Russian Institute for Agrarian Issues and Informatics named after A.A. Nikonov regional differences in the actual and converted to the base year prices of the cost of potatoes, as well as the cost structure for the production of this crop were estimated. For this, a database was formed on the basis of consolidated annual reports of agricultural organizations for a period that ensured uniformity of costs in the production structure (2010 – 2016). Deflators were defined for conversion to base prices of 2016, for each cost item. Intervals of changes in the cost price and the share of cost items, characteristic both for the majority of producing regions and for regions belonging to extreme groups were identified using grouping methods. In the generated database for each region, it is determined that it belongs to a certain cost group, and a group for each of the cost items, which makes it possible to perform an additional more detailed analysis of the dynamics of each region and groups. It was revealed that the average Russian cost of potatoes fluctuated in a narrow range, even taking into account inflation and was characterized by a stable structure. Deviations were recorded only in the abnormally dry 2010 (at cost) and in the year following the abnormal – in structure. The regions responded to the consequences of the abnormal drought by increasing the cost of seeds and fertilizers, i.e. most essential for the continuation of the activities, while reducing all others, and in particular wages in the year following the unfavorable. It is determined that if there is a large regional variation in the share of cost items, a homogeneous aggregate is formed by regions, which make up 97% of the total production.