scholarly journals Risk factors associated with venous thromboembolism in patients undergoing spine surgery

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keaton Piper ◽  
Hanna Algattas ◽  
Ian A. DeAndrea-Lazarus ◽  
Kristopher T. Kimmell ◽  
Yan Michael Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Spinal Surgery ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Class Iii ◽  
Improvement Project ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Increased Risk

OBJECTIVE Patients undergoing spinal surgery are at risk for developing venous thromboembolism (VTE). The authors sought to identify risk factors for VTE in these patients. METHODS The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project database for the years 2006–2010 was reviewed for patients who had undergone spinal surgery according to their primary Current Procedural Terminology code(s). Clinical factors were analyzed to identify associations with VTE. RESULTS Patients who underwent spinal surgery (n = 22,434) were identified. The rate of VTE in the cohort was 1.1% (pulmonary embolism 0.4%; deep vein thrombosis 0.8%). Multivariate binary logistic regression analysis revealed 13 factors associated with VTE. Preoperative factors included dependent functional status, paraplegia, quadriplegia, disseminated cancer, inpatient status, hypertension, history of transient ischemic attack, sepsis, and African American race. Operative factors included surgery duration > 4 hours, emergency presentation, and American Society of Anesthesiologists Class III–V, whereas postoperative sepsis was the only significant postoperative factor. A risk score was developed based on the number of factors present in each patient. Patients with a score of ≥ 7 had a 100-fold increased risk of developing VTE over patients with a score of 0. The receiver-operating-characteristic curve of the risk score generated an area under the curve of 0.756 (95% CI 0.726–0.787). CONCLUSIONS A risk score based on race, preoperative comorbidities, and operative characteristics of patients undergoing spinal surgery predicts the postoperative VTE rate. Many of these risks can be identified before surgery. Future protocols should focus on VTE prevention in patients who are predisposed to it.

scholarly journals Prediction of primary venous thromboembolism based on clinical and genetic factors within the U.K. Biobank

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Kolin ◽  
Scott Kulm ◽  
Olivier Elemento
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Genetic Risk ◽  
Genetic Factors ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Predictive Score ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Genetic Components ◽  
Increased Risk

AbstractBoth clinical and genetic factors drive the risk of venous thromboembolism. However, whether clinically recorded risk factors and genetic variants can be combined into a clinically applicable predictive score remains unknown. Using Cox proportional-hazard models, we analyzed the association of risk factors with the likelihood of venous thromboembolism in U.K. Biobank, a large prospective cohort. We then created a polygenic risk score of 36 single nucleotide polymorphisms and a clinical score determined by age, sex, body mass index, previous cancer diagnosis, smoking status, and fracture in the last 5 years. Participants were at significantly increased risk of venous thromboembolism if they were at high clinical risk (subhazard ratio, 4.37 [95% CI, 3.85–4.97]) or high genetic risk (subhazard ratio, 3.02 [95% CI, 2.63–3.47]) relative to participants at low clinical or genetic risk, respectively. The combined model, consisting of clinical and genetic components, was significantly better than either the clinical or the genetic model alone (P < 0.001). Participants at high risk in the combined score had nearly an eightfold increased risk of venous thromboembolism relative to participants at low risk (subhazard ratio, 7.51 [95% CI, 6.28–8.98]). This risk score can be used to guide decisions regarding venous thromboembolism prophylaxis, although external validation is needed.

scholarly journals Venous thromboembolism in children undergoing surgery: incidence, risk factors and related adverse events

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. e000084
Author(s):  
Elbert Johann Mets ◽  
Ryan Patrick McLynn ◽  
Jonathan Newman Grauer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Adverse Events ◽  
General Surgery ◽  
Elective Surgery ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Improvement Project ◽  
Increased Risk

BackgroundAlthough less common in adults, venous thromboembolism (VTE) in children is a highly morbid, preventable adverse event. While VTE has been well studied among pediatric hospitalized and trauma patients, limited work has been done to examine postoperative VTE in children undergoing surgery.MethodsUsing data from National Surgical Quality Improvement Project Pediatric database (NSQIP-P) from 2012 to 2016, a retrospective cohort analysis was performed to determine the incidence of, and risk factors for, VTE in children undergoing surgery. Additionally, the relationships between VTE and other postoperative adverse outcomes were evaluated.ResultsOf 361 384 pediatric surgical patients, 378 (0.10%) were identified as experiencing postoperative VTE. After controlling for patient and surgical factors, we found that American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class of II or greater, aged 16–18 years, non-elective surgery, general surgery (compared with several other surgical specialties), cardiothoracic surgery (compared with general surgery) and longer operative time were significantly associated with VTE in pediatric patients (p<0.001 for each comparison). Furthermore, a majority of adverse events were found to be associated with increased risk of subsequent VTE (p<0.001).ConclusionIn a large pediatric surgical population, an incidence of postoperative VTE of 0.10% was observed. Defined patient and surgical factors, and perioperative adverse events were found to be associated with such VTE events.

Potential Venous Thromboembolism Risk in Female Astronauts

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 432-439
Author(s):  
Varsha Jain ◽  
Robert Ploutz-Snyder ◽  
Millennia Young ◽  
Jacqueline M. Charvat ◽  
Virginia E. Wotring
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Healthy Lifestyle ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Health Data ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Increased Risk

BACKGROUND: Whether the unique environment of space affects astronaut risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is not known. On Earth, it is known that use of combined oral contraceptives (COCs) doubles the risk of VTE. Since some female astronauts choose to use COCs, this retrospective study examined known risk factors associated with VTE risk to determine whether the available data suggested elevated VTE risk in female astronauts.METHODS: Longitudinal health data were requested for female astronauts who flew short and long duration missions between 2000 and 2014. Pre- and postflight hematological and biochemical blood markers were available and evaluated. Astronauts’ postflight measurements were compared to clinically relevant terrestrial high risk levels to determine any trend toward increased risk for VTE following spaceflight. Secondarily, a comparison of pre- and postflight changes was made, as well as an assessment of COC impact.RESULTS: A total of 38 astronaut-flights were included in this study and no VTE events were found. Analysis of potential VTE risk factors showed no evidence suggesting elevated VTE risk in female astronauts associated with spaceflight, regardless of contraceptive use.DISCUSSION: Arguably, all astronauts encounter many physiological stressors during spaceflight missions, but women using the combined contraceptive pill add a known risk factor for VTE. The risk factors analyzed within this study showed no trend toward an increased risk of VTE for female astronauts. This study provides an evidence base supporting the safety of COC use by female astronauts and also reinforces the importance of healthy lifestyle on VTE risk reduction.Jain V, Ploutz-Snyder R, Young M, Charvat JM, Wotring VE. Potential venous thromboembolism risk in female astronauts. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2020; 91(5):432–439.

scholarly journals Major Characteristics of Severity and Mortality in Diabetic Patients With COVID-19 and Establishment of Severity Risk Score

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Feng Xiao ◽  
Jia-Lin He ◽  
Yu Xu ◽  
Xi Liu ◽  
Hui Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Laboratory Tests ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Diabetic Group ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Diabetic Patients ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Severity Of Disease

Objectives: Diabetes is a risk factor for poor COVID-19 prognosis. The analysis of related prognostic factors in diabetic patients with COVID-19 would be helpful for further treatment of such patients.Methods: This retrospective study involved 3623 patients with COVID-19 (325 with diabetes). Clinical characteristics and laboratory tests were collected and compared between the diabetic group and the non-diabetic group. Binary logistic regression analysis was applied to explore risk factors associated in diabetic patients with COVID-19. A prediction model was built based on these risk factors.Results: The risk factors for higher mortality in diabetic patients with COVID-19 were dyspnea, lung disease, cardiovascular diseases, neutrophil, PLT count, and CKMB. Similarly, dyspnea, cardiovascular diseases, neutrophil, PLT count, and CKMB were risk factors related to the severity of diabetes with COVID-19. Based on these factors, a risk score was built to predict the severity of disease in diabetic patients with COVID-19. Patients with a score of 7 or higher had an odds ratio of 7.616.Conclusions: Dyspnea is a critical clinical manifestation that is closely related to the severity of disease in diabetic patients with COVID-19. Attention should also be paid to the neutrophil, PLT count and CKMB levels after admission.

scholarly journals 1095. Investigation of Risk Factors Associated with Serious Bacterial, Viral and Invasive Fungal Infections in Hematologic Patients on Ibrutinib

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S576-S577
Author(s):  
Thomas Holowka ◽  
Harry Cheung ◽  
Maricar F Malinis ◽  
Sarah Perreault ◽  
Iris Isufi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Fungal Infections ◽  
Antimicrobial Prophylaxis ◽  
Hematologic Malignancy ◽  
Invasive Fungal Infections ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Serious Infection ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Serious Infections

Abstract Background Ibrutinib is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor used to treat hematologic malignancies that may increase the risk of serious infection including invasive fungal infections (IFI). In a study of 378 patients with hematologic malignancy on ibrutinib, serious infection and IFI occurred in 11% and 4% respectively (Varughese et al. Clin Infect Dis). The primary aims of our study were to determine the incidence of serious infection and associated risk factors in patients on ibrutinib. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of patients with hematologic malignancy prescribed ibrutinib for ≥ 1 week at Yale New Haven Hospital from 2014 to 2019 to identify serious infections defined as those requiring inpatient management. We collected demographic, clinical and oncologic data. Chi-squared tests were used to determine factors associated with an increased risk of infection. Results A total of 254 patients received ibrutinib including 156 with CLL, 89 with NHL and 9 with other leukemias. Among these, 21 underwent HSCT, 9 complicated by GVHD. There were 51 (20%) patients with serious infections including 45 (17.7%) bacterial, 9 (3.5%) viral and 5 (2%) IFI (1 pulmonary cryptococcosis, 4 pulmonary aspergillosis). Anti-mold prophylaxis was prescribed to 7 (2.8%) patients, none of whom developed IFI. Risk factors associated with serious infection included ECOG score ≥ 2 (OR 4.6, p &lt; 0.001), concurrent steroid use (≥ 10 mg prednisone daily for ≥ 2 weeks; OR 3.0, p &lt; 0.001), neutropenia (OR 3.6, p &lt; 0.01), lymphopenia (OR 2.4, p &lt; 0.05) and maximum ibrutinib dose of 560 mg (OR 2, p &lt; 0.05). There was a dose dependent increase in infections based on number of chemotherapy regimens prior to ibrutinib initiation: 14.3% with 0, 19.7% with 1-2 and 28.7% with ≥ 3 prior treatments. Conclusion The incidence of serious infection in hematologic patients on ibrutinib was higher than previously reported (20% versus 11%) but the rate of IFI was lower (2% versus 4%). High ECOG score, leukopenia, steroids, and higher ibrutinib doses were associated with an increased risk for serious infection. Targeted antimicrobial prophylaxis should be considered for patients on ibrutinib with these risk factors. Improving functional status may also reduce the risk of infection in patients on ibrutinib. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals An Exploration of Heart Failure Risk in Breast Cancer Patients Receiving Anthracyclines with or without Trastuzumab in Thailand: A Retrospective Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 484-493
Author(s):  
Jukapun Yoodee ◽  
Aumkhae Sookprasert ◽  
Phitjira Sanguanboonyaphong ◽  
Suthan Chanthawong ◽  
Manit Seateaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Left Ventricular Ejection ◽  
Breast Cancer Patients ◽  
Ventricular Ejection Fraction ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Palliative Intent ◽  
Increased Risk

Anthracycline-based regimens with or without anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER) 2 agents such as trastuzumab are effective in breast cancer treatment. Nevertheless, heart failure (HF) has become a significant side effect of these regimens. This study aimed to investigate the incidence and factors associated with HF in breast cancer patients treated with anthracyclines with or without trastuzumab. A retrospective cohort study was performed in patients with breast cancer who were treated with anthracyclines with or without trastuzumab between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2018. The primary outcome was the incidence of HF. The secondary outcome was the risk factors associated with HF by using the univariable and multivariable cox-proportional hazard model. A total of 475 breast cancer patients were enrolled with a median follow-up time of 2.88 years (interquartile range (IQR), 1.59–3.93). The incidence of HF was 3.2%, corresponding to an incidence rate of 11.1 per 1000 person-years. The increased risk of HF was seen in patients receiving a combination of anthracycline and trastuzumab therapy, patients treated with radiotherapy or palliative-intent chemotherapy, and baseline left ventricular ejection fraction <65%, respectively. There were no statistically significant differences in other risk factors for HF, such as age, cardiovascular comorbidities, and cumulative doxorubicin dose. In conclusion, the incidence of HF was consistently high in patients receiving combination anthracyclines trastuzumab regimens. A reduced baseline left ventricular ejection fraction, radiotherapy, and palliative-intent chemotherapy were associated with an increased risk of HF. Intensive cardiac monitoring in breast cancer patients with an increased risk of HF should be advised to prevent undesired cardiac outcomes.

scholarly journals OP0133 THE PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS OF RETINAL TOXICITY ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-TERM HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE USE

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 77-78
Author(s):  
S. Do ◽  
J. H. Du ◽  
J. X. An ◽  
J. Wang ◽  
A. Lin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cumulative Dose ◽  
Daily Intake ◽  
Retinal Toxicity ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Duration Of Therapy ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Hydroxychloroquine Retinopathy ◽  
Risk Of Retinopathy

Background:Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is commonly used for the treatment of various autoimmune diseases. The medication is generally well-tolerated. However, long-term use after 5 years may increase the risk of retinopathy. One study in 2014 has demonstrated the risk can be as high as 7.5%. Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) has become a major modality in screening retinopathy.Objectives:To evaluate the prevalence of retinal toxicity among patients using hydroxychloroquine and to determine various risk factors associated with hydroxychloroquine-associated retinal toxicity.Methods:We performed a retrospective chart review on a cohort of adult patients with long-term use (≥ 5 years cumulative) of HCQ between January 1st, 2011 to December 31st, 2018 from the Kaiser Permanente San Bernardino County and Riverside medical center areas in Southern California, USA. Patients were excluded if they had previously been diagnosed with retinopathy prior to hydroxychloroquine use, were deceased, or had incomplete OCT exam. Our primary endpoint was the prevalence of patients who developed retinal toxicity detected by OCT, and later confirmed by retinal specialist. Potential risk factors (age, duration of therapy, daily consumption per actual body weight, cumulative dose, confounding diseases and medication) for developing retinopathy were also evaluated. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine risk factors associated with retinal toxicity.Results:Among 676 patients exposed to more than 5 years of HCQ, the overall prevalence of retinal toxicity was 6.8%, and ranged from 2.5% to 22.2% depending on the age, weight-based dosing, duration of use and cumulative dose. Duration of therapy for 10 years or more increased risk of retinopathy by approximately 5 to 19 folds. Similarly, weight-based dose of 7 mg/kg/day or greater was assciated with increased risk of retinopathy by approximately 5 times. Patients with cumulative dose of 2000 grams or more had greater than 15 times higher risk of developing retinopathy. Duration of use for10 years or more (odd ratio 4.32, 95% CI 1.99 – 12.49), age (odd ratio 1.04; 95% CI 1.01 - 1.08), cumulative dose of more than 1500 g (odd ratio 7.4; 95% CI 1.40 – 39.04) and atherosclerosis of the aorta (odd ratio 2.59; 95% CI, 1.24 – 5.41) correlated with higher risk of retinal toxicity.Conclusion:The overall prevalence of retinopathy was 6.8%. Regular OCT screening, especially in patients with hydroxychloroquine use for more than 10 years, daily intake > 7 mg/kg, or cumulative dose > 1500 grams is important in detecting hydroxychloroquine-associated retinal toxicityReferences:[1]Hobbs HE. Sorsby A, & Freedman A. Retinopathy Following Chloroquine Therapy. The Lancet. 1959; 2(7101): 478-480.[2]Levy, G. D., Munz, S. J., Paschal, J., Cohen, H. B., Pince, K. J., & Peterson, T. Incidence of hydroxychloroquine retinopathy in 1,207 patients in a large multicenter outpatient practice. Arthritis & Rheumatism: 1997; 40(8): 1482-1486.[3]Ding, H. J., Denniston, A. K., Rao, V. K., & Gordon, C. Hydroxychloroquine-related retinal toxicity. Rheumatology. 2016; 55(6): 957-967.[4]Stelton, C. R., Connors, D. B., Walia, S. S., & Walia, H. S. Hydrochloroquine retinopathy: characteristic presentation with review of screening. Clinical rheumatology. 2013; 32(6): 895-898.[5]Marmor, M. F., Kellner, U., Lai, T. Y., Melles, R. B., & Mieler, W. F. Recommendations on screening for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine retinopathy (2016 revision). Ophthalmology. 2016; 123(6): 1386-1394.[6]Melles, R. B., & Marmor, M. F. The risk of toxic retinopathy in patients on long-term hydroxychloroquine therapy. JAMA ophthalmology. 2014; 132(12): 1453-1460.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

scholarly journals Risk score to stratify miscarriage risk levels in preconception women

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Hui Choo ◽  
Chee Wai Ku ◽  
Yin Bun Cheung ◽  
Keith M. Godfrey ◽  
Yap-Seng Chong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Spontaneous Miscarriage ◽  
Risk Levels

AbstractSpontaneous miscarriage is one of the most common complications of pregnancy. Even though some risk factors are well documented, there is a paucity of risk scoring tools during preconception. In the S-PRESTO cohort study, Asian women attempting to conceive, aged 18-45 years, were recruited. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to determine risk estimates for age, ethnicity, history of pregnancy loss, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake and dietary supplement intake; from these we derived a risk score ranging from 0 to 17. Miscarriage before 16 weeks of gestation, determined clinically or via ultrasound. Among 465 included women, 59 had miscarriages and 406 had pregnancy ≥ 16 weeks of gestation. Higher rates of miscarriage were observed at higher risk scores (5.3% at score ≤ 3, 17.0% at score 4–6, 40.0% at score 7–8 and 46.2% at score ≥ 9). Women with scores ≤ 3 were defined as low-risk level (< 10% miscarriage); scores 4–6 as intermediate-risk level (10% to < 40% miscarriage); scores ≥ 7 as high-risk level (≥ 40% miscarriage). The risk score yielded an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.67, 0.81; p < 0.001). This novel scoring tool allows women to self-evaluate their miscarriage risk level, which facilitates lifestyle changes to optimize modifiable risk factors in the preconception period and reduces risk of spontaneous miscarriage.

Stroke in Pregnancy and Puerperium: Validated Incidence Trends With Risk Factor Analysis in Finland 1987–2016

Neurology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 10.1212/WNL.0000000000011990
Author(s):  
Liisa Karjalainen ◽  
Minna Tikkanen ◽  
Kirsi Rantanen ◽  
Karoliina Aarnio ◽  
Aino Korhonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Postpartum Period ◽  
First Trimester ◽  
Class Iii ◽  
Hypertensive Disorders Of Pregnancy ◽  
Risk Factor Management ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Hypertensive Disorders ◽  
Increased Risk

Objective:To investigate whether previously reported increasing incidence of pregnancy-associated stroke (PAS) is observed in chart-validated register data in Finland. In an exploratory analysis, we studied risk factors for PAS.Methods:We performed a retrospective population-based cohort study and nested case-control study in Finland 1987-2016. The Medical Birth Register (MBR) was linked with the Hospital Discharge Register to identify women with incident stroke (ischemic stroke, cerebral venous thrombosis, intracerebral or subarachnoid hemorrhage) during pregnancy or puerperium. Cases were verified from patient records. Incidence of PAS over the study period, in 5-year age groups and pregnancy/postpartum period were calculated per number of deliveries. Three matched controls were selected for each case from MBR to compare risk factors.Results:After chart review, 29.6% (257/868) of cases were PAS. The incidence of PAS was 14.5 (95%CI: 12.8-16.3) per 100,000 deliveries. Incidence increased from 11.1 to 25.2 per 100,000 deliveries from 1987-1991 to 2012-2016 (p<0.0001). Incidence increased by age from 9.8 to 29.9 per 100,000 deliveries from ages 20-24 to ages >40 (p<0.0001). During early postpartum period, incidence was 5-fold greater compared to the first trimester. Maternal mortality was 6.6%. In the multivariable adjusted model, smoking beyond 12 gestational weeks (odds ratio [OR] 1.8, 95%CI: 1.2-2.7), migraine (OR 16.3, 95%CI: 5.3-49.8), and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (OR 4.0, 95%CI: 2.5-6.3) were the most important risk factors for PAS.Conclusion:PAS incidence is increasing stressing the importance of careful pregnancy surveillance and risk factor management, particularly in older expectant mothers and extending to puerperium.Classification of Evidence:This study provides Class III evidence that smoking beyond 12 gestational weeks, migraine and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are associated with an increased risk of PAS.

Abstract 47: Atrial Fibrillation is Associated With Increased Risk of Incident Venous Thromboembolism: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Circulation ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 135 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela L Lutsey ◽  
Faye L Norby ◽  
Alvaro Alonso ◽  
Mary Cushman ◽  
Lin Y Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Atherosclerosis Risk ◽  
Shared Risk

Background: It is well-established that atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with thrombus formation in the left atrium, which can lead to ischemic stroke. Case reports, autopsies, and transesophageal echo data have indicated that clot formation also occurs in the right atrium (i.e. right-side intracardiac thrombosis) of AF patients, which could lead to pulmonary embolism (PE). However, it is unclear whether this occurrence is common. Objective: Test the hypotheses that individuals with incident AF are at elevated risk of developing venous thromboembolism (VTE), and that the association will be stronger for those presenting with PE alone versus PE and deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or DVT alone. Methods: A total of 15,205 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants, aged 45-64 years, were followed from baseline (1987-1989) to 2011 for incidence of AF and VTE (median follow-up 19.8 years). Incident AF and VTE events were identified via active surveillance and defined by relevant hospital discharge ICD codes. VTE events were validated by medical record review. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models were used, with AF modeled as a time-dependent covariate. We also evaluated separately risk of PE without evidence of DVT, DVT without PE, and events presenting with both PE and DVT. Results: At baseline participants were on average 54 years old, 55% female and 26% black. In the absence of AF there were 678 VTE events, for an incidence rate of 2.6 per 1000 person-years. After an AF diagnosis there were 77 events, with an incidence rate of 7.1 per 1000 person-years. In multivariable-adjusted models, having AF (versus no AF) was associated with a greater risk of incident VTE; the HR (95% CI) was 2.10 (1.65-2.68) after adjustment for demographics, 1.82 (1.42-2.32) additionally accounting for numerous AF and VTE risk factors, and 1.97 (1.53-2.53) after further adjusting for time-dependent anticoagulant use. When we restricted to PE events without evidence of DVT there were 188 events in total, of which 19 occurred following a diagnosis of AF. The HR for AF (versus no AF) was 1.53 (0.92-2.56) in fully adjusted models. For DVT alone there were 384 events in total, of which 48 occurred after AF diagnosis; the HR for AF was 2.43 (1.77-3.33). Among the 116 events presenting with both DVT and PE, 10 occurred after AF diagnosis, and the HR for AF was 1.36 (0.67-2.75). Conclusions: Diagnosis with AF was associated with a nearly 2-fold increased risk of incident VTE. The association was not stronger when isolated to those with PE without DVT, suggesting that higher risk of VTE among AF patients may be due to either the coagulation abnormalities that accompany AF, or shared risk factors that were not fully accounted for in this analysis.

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