scholarly journals Financial and Statistical Analysis of Investment Projects High-Tech Scientific Developments Based on Carbon Nanomaterials

2017 ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
F. V. Motsnyi ◽  
M. E. Sinytskyi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Carbon Nanomaterials ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

Carbon nanomaterials (graphene, nanotubes, fullerenes, the family of derivatives from C ) belong to the miraculous materials of 21 century, which can radically change technologies in the coming years. Thus, unique supercapacitors with the capacity of 10.000 F have been proposed on their basis, which is 12.5 thousand higher than the capacity of the Earth. Immense funds have been invested globally in research of carbon nanomaterials and development of devices on their basis. Utilization of scientific advancements in the domestic industry will promote economic growth, innovation society building and market recovery in Ukraine. This article is the first to pose the question about selection of advanced developments projects on the basis of carbon nanomaterials using Monte Carlo method. Investment projects for high tech scientific developments (nanotubes, nanobatteries, supercapacitors, nanoaccumulators) are analyzed. Approaches to account for the risks of investment projects in the conditions of non-established stock market in Ukraine are shown. Use of Monte Carlo method as the most preferred approach to evaluating the impact of risks on decision-making in the conditions of uncertainty is substantiated. Current market prices on respective products are used as the input database. The Net Present Value (NPV) and the probability of its negative numbers are computed. The point of the project reliability at which the probability of negative NPV numbers approximates zero is found. It is shown that this point can be used as the benchmark, because the relative distance to it is the criterion for selection of the most acceptable version of project implementation. The projects with minimal expected risks of implementation are selected.

scholarly journals Simulation Modeling in Assessing the Effectiveness and Risk of Investment Projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-124
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Kharchenko ◽  
◽  
Hanna Kharchenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Random Number ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Universal Method ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Impact

Introduction. The article deals with the modeling features in the implementation of investment projects using the Monte Carlo method. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the feasibility of using economic and mathematical models to identify the risks of investment projects in agricultural production, taking into account the randomness of factors. Results. The expediency of using this method during the analysis of projects in agriculture is determined. This type of modeling is a universal method of research and evaluation of the effectiveness of open systems, the behavior of which depends on the influence of random factors. Particular attention is paid in such cases to decisions on the implementation of investment projects. The expediency of using this method in the analysis of projects in agriculture is determined. The main characteristics of the investment project are considered: investments involve significant financial costs; investment return can be obtained in a few years; there are elements of risk and uncertainty in forecasting the results of the investment project. The algorithm of the analysis of investment projects consisting of various stages is offered. The importance of investigating the risks of investment projects in agricultural production is substantiated. It is investigated that the basis of the Monte Carlo method is a random number generator, which consists of two stages: generation of a normalized random number (uniformly distributed from 0 to 1) and conversion of a random number into an arbitrary distribution law. The task of choosing an investment project for a pig farm is proposed. The calculations revealed that the amount of the expected NPV is UAH 63,158.80 with a standard deviation of UAH 43,777.90. The coefficient of variation was 0.69, so the risk of this project is generally lower than the average risk of the investment portfolio of the farm. Conclusions. The results of the analysis obtained using the method of Monte Carlo simulation are quite simple to interpret and reflect the change of factors over a significant interval, taking into account the probabilistic nature of economic factors. Thus, this method allows the implementation of the investment project to assess the impact of uncertainty on the final result of the project.

scholarly journals ECONOMICAL AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIARIES FOR THE INTEGRATION OF BROILERS UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 240-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Simões ◽  
João Paulo Ribeiro ◽  
Pedro Rodrigo Gouveia ◽  
Josiane Corrêa dos Santos
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Financial Return ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Flow Models ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Broiler Production ◽  
Technological Level

Financial investment projects are characterized by uncertainties. When quantified, these will determine the probability of their occurrence and the condition of risk. This information might be analyzed via simulation of Monte Carlo Method, which will establish the level of associated risk. To understand the financial risks of broiler production in integration system, cash flow models for aviaries were formulated with different technological levels. Using deterministic techniques, the value of the main economic viability indicators were calculated, which were incorporated to the risk through a probabilistic model of pseudo-random numbers, generated with Monte Carlo Method. The uncertainties associated to financial projects show that broiler production in different integration systems is economically viable. However, the best financial return and smallest risk are obtained with an aviary which contains low technological level and the least financial investment.

Spousal Attitude Towards Exerting Conflict Resolution Strategies in Decision Making

Paradigm ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-90
Author(s):  
Shivendra Singh ◽  
Atul Dhyani
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Marital Power ◽  
Consumption Decisions ◽  
Northern India ◽  
The Family ◽  
Conflict Resolution Strategies ◽  
Decision Satisfaction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

Family is one entity that has complex variables underplaying the consumption decisions, and marketers must understand how couples behave in concert to resolve conflict across major decisions. In this study, the family aspects are investigated to shed more light on spouse attitude towards family decision-making for selection of car and school/college for their ward and assess the impact of attitudinal factor on decision satisfaction. The drop-off/pick-up method was used to collect the data from Northern India. The result reveals that spousal attitude is formed by marital power, assertiveness, subtle manipulation, love, bargaining and being submissive. Results of multiple regression analysis show that subtle manipulation is most and marital power has a negative impact on spouses’ decision satisfaction. Thus, when targeting a family for a significant trades assay, the salesperson should focus on both husband and wife and stimulate a conversation between them to appeal to their conjoint kinship.

scholarly journals High Partial Auxeticity Induced by Nanochannels in [111]-Direction in a Simple Model with Yukawa Interactions

Materials ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin Tretiakov ◽  
Paweł Pigłowski ◽  
Jakub Narojczyk ◽  
Mikołaj Bilski ◽  
Krzysztof Wojciechowski
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Poisson’S Ratio ◽  
Yukawa Potential ◽  
Poisson's Ratio ◽  
Debye Screening Length ◽  
Debye Screening ◽  
Screening Length ◽  
Narrow Channels ◽  
The Impact

Computer simulations using Monte Carlo method in the isobaric-isothermal ensemble were used to investigate the impact of nanoinclusions in the form of very narrow channels in the [ 111 ] -direction on elastic properties of crystals, whose particles interact via Yukawa potential. The studies were performed for several selected values of Debye screening length ( ( κ σ ) − 1 ). It has been observed that introduction of the nanoinclusions into the system reduces the negative value of Poisson’s ratio towards [ 110 ] [ 1 1 ¯ 0 ] , maintaining practically constant values of Poisson’s ratio in the directions [ 100 ] and [ 111 ] . These studies also show that concentration of particles forming the nanoinclusions in the system has a significant effect on the value of Poisson’s ratio in the [ 110 ] [ 1 1 ¯ 0 ] -direction. A strong (more than fourfold) decrease of Poisson’s ratio in this direction was observed, from − 0.147 ( 3 ) (system without inclusions) to − 0.614 ( 14 ) (system with nanoinclusions) at κ σ = 10 when the inclusion particles constituted about 10 percent of all particles. The research also showed an increase in the degree of auxeticity in the system with increasing concentration of nanoinclusion particles for all the screening lengths considered.

scholarly journals Impact of natural climate variability on runoff based on Monte Carlo method

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 344-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Yang ◽  
Jianxia Chang ◽  
Jun Yao ◽  
Yimin Wang ◽  
Qiang Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Natural Condition ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Local Interference ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Studying the impact of climate variability is important for the rational utilization of water resources, especially in the case of intensified global climate variability. Climate variability can be caused by natural climate variability or human-caused climate variability. The analysis of Jinghe River Basin (JRB) may not be comprehensive because few studies have concentrated on natural climate variability. Therefore, the primary goal is to explore the impact of natural climate variability on runoff. A modified Mann–Kendall test method was adopted to analyze the aberrance point to determine the natural condition period during which runoff was only influenced by natural climate variability. Then, the Monte Carlo method was employed to extract segments of monthly runoff in the natural condition period and combine them to construct a long series to reduce the instability. Results indicate that the percentage of runoff variability affected by natural climate variability is 30.52% at a confidence level of 95%. Next, a topography-based hydrological model and climate elasticity method were used to simulate runoff after the aberrance point without considering the impact caused by local interference. Through a comparison of the measured and simulated runoff, we discovered that local interference has the greatest impact on runoff in the JRB.

scholarly journals Real options analysis in the engineering company practice

2013 ◽  
Vol 61 (7) ◽  
pp. 2303-2309
Author(s):  
Václav Klepáč ◽  
Petr Kříž ◽  
David Hampel
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Real Options Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Research Problems ◽  
Path Dependent

In this paper, we deal with the real options analysis of selected investment projects. This approach is supplemented and compared to calculations of the net present value (NPV). Two research problems are analyzed: acquisition of the simulation software for the foundry industry in the sense of the expansive options and options on leaving the project in the case of acquisition of the spectrometer. For the option valuation, there were used analytical and numerical methods like the Black-Scholes model, binomial model and Monte Carlo simulations. In the case of binomial pricing model we used modification describing the behavior of the project’s cash-flow (CF) due to capacity of the company, path-dependent addiction and embedded option barrier. To extend the application of the real options analysis, we propose procedures for sensitivity analysis and option pricing based on Monte Carlo simulations for particular case of stochastic volatility.

scholarly journals Providing the environmental safety by increasing the efficiency of firefighting in unsheltered timber warehouses

2021 ◽  
pp. 123-129
Author(s):  
E. M. Hulida ◽  
I. V. Pasnak ◽  
O. E. Vasylieva ◽  
I. O. Movchan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Combustion Products ◽  
Environmental Safety ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Free Development ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. To develop a method for reducing the impact of fires in unsheltered timber warehouses on the environmental safety by reducing the duration of free burning of timber, the speed of fire front spread, emissions of combustion products and the duration of the firefighting. Methodology. During the experimental research, the method of fractional factor experiment was used. Theoretical research was performed using optimization mathematical models. The Monte Carlo method is used to solve optimization problems. To implement this method, block diagrams of algorithms was developed, based on written corresponded computer programs. Findings. The method was developed for reducing the impact of fires in unsheltered timber warehouses on the environmental safety by reducing the duration of free development of the fire, the speed of fire front spread, the concentration of combustion products and the duration of the fire. Fire prevention measures to reduce the duration of fire and to reduce emissions of combustion products due to fires in unsheltered timber warehouses was implemented by using an automated system to determine the fire extinguishing means and forces by setting an optimization problem, applying the Monte Carlo method and developing software to solve it. Originality. The scientific novelty is the justification of ways to reduce the duration of the free development of fire and to reduce the amount of toxic emissions using optimization mathematical models. Practical value. It is possible to use the obtained results in the practical activities of fire and rescue units of the SES of Ukraine and provide environmental safety in case of fire in unsheltered timber warehouse due to the practical implementation of administrative, legal and economic methods.

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