scholarly journals Simulation Modeling in Assessing the Effectiveness and Risk of Investment Projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-124
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Kharchenko ◽  
◽  
Hanna Kharchenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Random Number ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Universal Method ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Impact

Introduction. The article deals with the modeling features in the implementation of investment projects using the Monte Carlo method. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the feasibility of using economic and mathematical models to identify the risks of investment projects in agricultural production, taking into account the randomness of factors. Results. The expediency of using this method during the analysis of projects in agriculture is determined. This type of modeling is a universal method of research and evaluation of the effectiveness of open systems, the behavior of which depends on the influence of random factors. Particular attention is paid in such cases to decisions on the implementation of investment projects. The expediency of using this method in the analysis of projects in agriculture is determined. The main characteristics of the investment project are considered: investments involve significant financial costs; investment return can be obtained in a few years; there are elements of risk and uncertainty in forecasting the results of the investment project. The algorithm of the analysis of investment projects consisting of various stages is offered. The importance of investigating the risks of investment projects in agricultural production is substantiated. It is investigated that the basis of the Monte Carlo method is a random number generator, which consists of two stages: generation of a normalized random number (uniformly distributed from 0 to 1) and conversion of a random number into an arbitrary distribution law. The task of choosing an investment project for a pig farm is proposed. The calculations revealed that the amount of the expected NPV is UAH 63,158.80 with a standard deviation of UAH 43,777.90. The coefficient of variation was 0.69, so the risk of this project is generally lower than the average risk of the investment portfolio of the farm. Conclusions. The results of the analysis obtained using the method of Monte Carlo simulation are quite simple to interpret and reflect the change of factors over a significant interval, taking into account the probabilistic nature of economic factors. Thus, this method allows the implementation of the investment project to assess the impact of uncertainty on the final result of the project.

Line-by-Line Random-Number Database for Monte Carlo Simulations of Radiation in Combustion System

2018 ◽  
Vol 141 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Ren ◽  
Michael F. Modest
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Radiative Heat ◽  
Random Number ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Combustion System ◽  
Absorption Coefficients ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

With today's computational capabilities, it has become possible to conduct line-by-line (LBL) accurate radiative heat transfer calculations in spectrally highly nongray combustion systems using the Monte Carlo method. In these calculations, wavenumbers carried by photon bundles must be determined in a statistically meaningful way. The wavenumbers for the emitting photons are found from a database, which tabulates wavenumber–random number relations for each species. In order to cover most conditions found in industrial practices, a database tabulating these relations for CO2, H2O, CO, CH4, C2H4, and soot is constructed to determine emission wavenumbers and absorption coefficients for mixtures at temperatures up to 3000 K and total pressures up to 80 bar. The accuracy of the database is tested by reconstructing absorption coefficient spectra from the tabulated database. One-dimensional test cases are used to validate the database against analytical LBL solutions. Sample calculations are also conducted for a luminous flame and a gas turbine combustion burner. The database is available from the author's website upon request.

scholarly journals Análise dos Riscos em Projetos: Uma Aplicação do Método de Monte Carlo em uma Empresa do Setor Moveleiro

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 332-357
Author(s):  
Fernando Rodrigues de Amorim ◽  
Pedro Henrique Camargo de Abreu ◽  
Marco Tulio Ospina Patino ◽  
Leonardo Augusto Amaral Terra
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
A Value ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Monte Carlo Em ◽  
A Company

Globalization is a phenomenon that is present in modern society and, with its expansion, it is essential that companies can meet the constant demands of the market, but for this, it is necessary to make the best decisions and deal with various adversities related to the economy, competition, management, among others. The success of investment projects is determined by a set of techniques that must be applied so as not to compromise the viability of the project. When this viability is surrounded by uncertainties, a useful alternative to knowing the risks is the use of the Monte Carlo method. The present work aims to address the risk factors in a company of the furniture sector, using the Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the viability of this project. The methodology adopted was developed from a case study, through an exploratory research. The results showed that the investment project is viable, estimating a return between the 4th and 5th year of the project, in addition, the balance after the 10 years of investment would be around R$ 4,128,211.63, a value that represents 161.25% of the initial investment.

A Modification to the Monte Carlo Method—The Exodus Method

1968 ◽  
Vol 90 (3) ◽  
pp. 328-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Emery ◽  
W. W. Carson
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Random Number ◽  
Random Number Generator ◽  
Number Generator ◽  
Calculation Time ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

A modification to the Monte Carlo method is described which reduces calculation time and improves the accuracy. This method—termed “Exodus”—is not dependent upon a random number generator and may be applied to any problem which admits of a nodal network.

scholarly journals Motorway Route Planning with Regarding the Adverse Effects on Agricultural Production Space

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 6770
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Dudzińska ◽  
Stanisław Bacior ◽  
Barbara Prus
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Space Module ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Production Space ◽  
The Impact

Designing and implementing investment projects are activities that have a direct impact on the natural environment and pose a threat to sustainable development of rural areas. The issue of agricultural production space protection during the implementation of linear projects in Poland is often only mentioned at the design stage as the final element. The aim of the study is to propose a tool to enable an assessment and modelling of a motorway design variant in order to minimise the impact on the agricultural production space. Four indicators introduced in the modelling procedure include the loss of agricultural land, a decrease of land productivity in the vicinity of an investment project, changes in the spatial structure of areas divided by the investment, and difficulties resulting from the accessibility of areas. The superiority of the proposed method over consolidations implemented in the vicinity of a motorway is due to the introduction into projects not only of elements organising the space but also attributes that prevent the reduction of the production capabilities of the land located in the vicinity of the motorway (Module I) and, secondly, the elements decreasing the re-organisation of the space (Module II).

scholarly journals Providing the environmental safety by increasing the efficiency of firefighting in unsheltered timber warehouses

2021 ◽  
pp. 123-129
Author(s):  
E. M. Hulida ◽  
I. V. Pasnak ◽  
O. E. Vasylieva ◽  
I. O. Movchan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Combustion Products ◽  
Environmental Safety ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Free Development ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. To develop a method for reducing the impact of fires in unsheltered timber warehouses on the environmental safety by reducing the duration of free burning of timber, the speed of fire front spread, emissions of combustion products and the duration of the firefighting. Methodology. During the experimental research, the method of fractional factor experiment was used. Theoretical research was performed using optimization mathematical models. The Monte Carlo method is used to solve optimization problems. To implement this method, block diagrams of algorithms was developed, based on written corresponded computer programs. Findings. The method was developed for reducing the impact of fires in unsheltered timber warehouses on the environmental safety by reducing the duration of free development of the fire, the speed of fire front spread, the concentration of combustion products and the duration of the fire. Fire prevention measures to reduce the duration of fire and to reduce emissions of combustion products due to fires in unsheltered timber warehouses was implemented by using an automated system to determine the fire extinguishing means and forces by setting an optimization problem, applying the Monte Carlo method and developing software to solve it. Originality. The scientific novelty is the justification of ways to reduce the duration of the free development of fire and to reduce the amount of toxic emissions using optimization mathematical models. Practical value. It is possible to use the obtained results in the practical activities of fire and rescue units of the SES of Ukraine and provide environmental safety in case of fire in unsheltered timber warehouse due to the practical implementation of administrative, legal and economic methods.

Combined Cycle Performance Test Uncertainty Validation by Comparing Monte Carlo Analysis With Monovariate Perturbation Results

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerri L. Spencer ◽  
Jeffrey R. Friedman ◽  
Terry B. Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Performance Test ◽  
Performance Testing ◽  
Monte Carlo Analysis ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Plant Performance ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Test Uncertainty

This paper focuses on the calculation of the test uncertainty of an ASME PTC 46 [1], overall plant performance test of a combined cycle by two separate methods. It compares the combined cycle corrected plant output and heat rate systematic uncertainty results that are generated using monovariate perturbation analysis with the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo method has not been used widely in power plant performance testing applications. It offers insights into the results of the Monte Carlo analysis method, which is less intuitive than the conventional method. This study shows that utilizing two distinctly different methods of calculation of test uncertainty serves to corroborate assumptions, or to isolate flaws in one or both methods. In developing the method for calculation of test uncertainty, the authors conclude that it is prudent to validate the calculation method of choice of test uncertainty, and to consider the correlations in measurement uncertainties. Also discussed in detail are the impact of correlated uncertainty assumptions, and recommendations on their application. Correlated uncertainty has not been extensively discussed in the literature concerning specific applications in performance testing, although it should be a critical consideration in any uncertainty analysis. Details of determination of instrumentation uncertainty, measurement uncertainty of a parameter, and calculation of sensitivity factors are included in this paper.

scholarly journals Improving the assessment of the environmental and economic efficiency of measures

2021 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 00002
Author(s):  
Inna P. Bandurinа ◽  
Mikhail A. Bandurin ◽  
Alexander P. Bandurin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The purpose of the study is to improve methods for improving the regulatory and methodological framework for assessing the environmental and economic effectiveness of land reclamation investment projects. The research methodology is based on the Monte Carlo method, which corresponds to international standards, the theory and algorithms of innovative methods for determining risks, as well as the ability to provide the user with information about the content of risk assessment operations and ensure that their preferences are taken into account in the calculation process. Currently, many tools have been developed for automating risk analysis procedures, including those performed by the Monte Carlo method, which are described in various studies with varying degrees of completeness. The analysis of priority methods of assessing the risks of achieving the projected economic indicators of project solutions is performed and the prospects of the simulation method for practical use in the field of land reclamation are shown. The results of the risk assessment of environmental and economic efficiency of anti-filtration coatings of hydraulic structures of irrigation systems performed by the Monte Carlo method in the environment of the Crystal Ball software product are presented, and the need to improve the reliability of the predicted results of the effectiveness of the designed measures is established. Future research is risk assessment of profitability of the designed activities promote the development of existing and formation of new theories to justify the feasibility of implementation of reclamation investment projects.

scholarly journals Enterprise content management in the cloud

2013 ◽  
Vol 61 (7) ◽  
pp. 2295-2301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslava Klegová ◽  
Ivana Rábová
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Management System ◽  
Maximum Level ◽  
Content Management ◽  
Content Management System ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Enterprise Content Management ◽  
It Department ◽  
The Impact

At present the attention of many organizations concentrates to the Enterprise Content Management system (ECM). Unstructured content grows exponentially, and Enterprise Content Management system helps to capture, store, manage, integrate and deliver all forms of content across the company. Today, decision makers have possibility to move ECM systems to the cloud and take advantages of cloud computing. Cloud solution can provide a crucial competitive advantage. For example, it can reduce fixed IT department cost and ensure faster ECM implementation.To achieve the maximum level of benefits from implementation of ECM in the cloud it is important to understand all possibilities and actions during the implementation. In this paper, the general model of the ECM implementation in the cloud is proposed and described. The risk may relate to all aspects of the implementation, such as cost, schedule or quality. This is the reason why the introduced model places emphasize on risk. The aim of the article is to identify risks of the ECM implementation in the cloud and quantify the impact of risk. The article is focused on the Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo method is a technique that uses random numbers and probability to solve problems. Based on interviews with an IT managers there is created an example of possible scenarios and the risk is evaluated using the Monte Carlo method.

scholarly journals Financial and Statistical Analysis of Investment Projects High-Tech Scientific Developments Based on Carbon Nanomaterials

2017 ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
F. V. Motsnyi ◽  
M. E. Sinytskyi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Carbon Nanomaterials ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

Carbon nanomaterials (graphene, nanotubes, fullerenes, the family of derivatives from C ) belong to the miraculous materials of 21 century, which can radically change technologies in the coming years. Thus, unique supercapacitors with the capacity of 10.000 F have been proposed on their basis, which is 12.5 thousand higher than the capacity of the Earth. Immense funds have been invested globally in research of carbon nanomaterials and development of devices on their basis. Utilization of scientific advancements in the domestic industry will promote economic growth, innovation society building and market recovery in Ukraine. This article is the first to pose the question about selection of advanced developments projects on the basis of carbon nanomaterials using Monte Carlo method. Investment projects for high tech scientific developments (nanotubes, nanobatteries, supercapacitors, nanoaccumulators) are analyzed. Approaches to account for the risks of investment projects in the conditions of non-established stock market in Ukraine are shown. Use of Monte Carlo method as the most preferred approach to evaluating the impact of risks on decision-making in the conditions of uncertainty is substantiated. Current market prices on respective products are used as the input database. The Net Present Value (NPV) and the probability of its negative numbers are computed. The point of the project reliability at which the probability of negative NPV numbers approximates zero is found. It is shown that this point can be used as the benchmark, because the relative distance to it is the criterion for selection of the most acceptable version of project implementation. The projects with minimal expected risks of implementation are selected.

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