scholarly journals Keeping up with the Joneses: Relative economic voting, electoral participation, and reference points

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Beomseob Park
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
News Media ◽  
Important Implication ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Do So

This research explores the role relative economy plays in vote choice and turnout. The decision to vote and for whom to vote are heavily predicated on selecting competent policymakers based on their performance handling the economy. To do so, voters must infer the leader's competence based on observations of the economy. I argue that voters can better extract the 'competence signal' by comparing their own economy with the economies of reference countries that share a great deal of familiarity, similarity and connectivity. A relatively strong economy signals incumbent competence whereas a relatively poor one signals their incompetence, and thus, incumbent vote share and voter turnout should be a function of the relative economy. By selecting appropriate reference points from news media in 22 different languages from 33 democracies, this research demonstrates that incumbents tend to be rewarded with increasing vote shares for out-performing growth and are punished for growth that under-performs relative to reference economies. It also reveals that the relatively poor economy makes voters alienated and indifferent from politics, which eventually leads them to abstain from voting. This research has an important implication for democratic electoral accountability; despite frequent instability between the economy and vote choice, this research reaffirms democratic theorists by showing that elections offer citizens periodic chances to change policymakers.

An Integrated Model of Vote Choice in Argentina, 2009

2011 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 115-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido Cataife
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
Mixed Logit ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Mixed Logit Model ◽  
Common Belief ◽  
Spatial Voting ◽  
The Common ◽  
Do So

AbstractThis article studies voter behavior in Argentina. Do voters vote based on issues? Do they vote based on economic performance? What segments of the population are more or less likely to do so? What is the relative impact of issues and the economy in vote choice? To provide a reliable answer to these questions, this study uses a mixed-logit model of spatial voting with nonpolicy components. Contrary to the common belief, the analysis finds that issue voting is a statistically significant and important factor. Economic voting is prevalent in the middle and upper classes, but not among poor voters.

Weather, Risk, and Voting: An Experimental Analysis of the Effect of Weather on Vote Choice

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Bassi
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Risk Tolerance ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Inclement Weather ◽  
Weather Risk ◽  
Bad Weather

AbstractA number of theoretical and empirical studies analyze the effect of inclement weather on voter turnout and in turn on parties’ vote share. However, empirical findings suggest that the effect of weather on parties’ vote share is greater than can be explained by its influence on voter turnout alone. This article provides experimental evidence of the effect of weather on vote choice between more- versus less-risky candidates. Findings show that bad weather significantly and sizeably depresses risk tolerance making voters less likely to vote for risky candidates. This article also provides evidence of a possible mechanism: unpleasant weather conditions depress agents’ mood, making agents less inclined to vote for candidates who are perceived as more risky.

Gender Gaps in Electoral Turnout: Surveys versus Administrative Censuses

2021 ◽  
pp. 147892992110195
Author(s):  
Paulo Cox ◽  
Mauricio Morales Quiroga
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Gender Gaps ◽  
Electoral Turnout ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Rule Out

Gender gaps in voter turnout are usually studied using opinion surveys rather than official census data. This is because administrative censuses usually do not disaggregate turnout according to voters’ sex. Without this official information, much of the research on gender gaps in electoral turnout relies on survey respondents’ self-reported behavior, either before or after an election. The decision to use survey data implies facing several potential drawbacks. Among them are the turnout overstatement bias and the attrition or nonresponse bias, both affecting the estimation of factors explaining turnout and any related statistical analysis. Furthermore, these biases may be correlated with covariates such as gender: men, more than women, may systematically overstate their electoral participation. We analyze turnout gender gaps in Chile, comparing national surveys with official administrative data, which in Chile are publicly available. Crucially, the latter includes the official record of sex, age, and the electoral behavior—whether the individual voted or not—for about 14 million registered individuals. Based on a series of statistical models, we find that analysis based on survey data is likely to rule out gender gaps in electoral participation. Carrying out the same exercises, but with official data, leads to the opposite conclusion, namely, that there is a sizable gender gap favoring women.

scholarly journals Inequality and Electoral Accountability: Class-Biased Economic Voting in Comparative Perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 1076-1093 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Hicks ◽  
Alan M. Jacobs ◽  
J. Scott Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
Comparative Perspective ◽  
Electoral Accountability

scholarly journals "Többször nekifutottunk, de lepattantunk mindig a közöny miatt"

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dóra Hangya
Keyword(s):  
Adult Education ◽  
Equal Opportunity ◽  
Further Education ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Education Programs ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Open Point ◽  
Structured Questionnaire ◽  
Do So

Az ÚNKP kutatás célja annak vizsgálata, hogy a szakértői nyilvántartásban szereplő felnőttképzési szakértők és programszakértők kötelező továbbképzéseinek moduljai (14/2014. (III. 31.) NGM rendelet) tartalmaznak-e ismereteket a fogyatékossággal élő felnőttek képzésben való részvételének feltételrendszeréről, valamint hogy a felnőttképzési szakértők számára nehézséget okoz-e, ha a felnőttképzési intézmények munkatársai a témát érintő kérdésekkel fordulnak hozzájuk. Előzmény a KJM Alapítvány 2016. évi Phd pályázata keretében lefolytatott kutatás, amely eredményei szerint a válaszadó engedéllyel rendelkező felnőttképzési intézmények 95%-a úgy véli, hogy a felnőttképzési szakértők számára szükséges volna olyan tartalmú továbbképzés biztosítása, mely támpontokkal látja el őket annak érdekében, hogy segíteni tudják őket az egyenlő esélyű hozzáférés biztosításának megteremtésében (n=136). (Hangya, 2016, Hangya, 2017)A kutatás módszere teljes körű mintavételen alapuló félig strukturált kérdőíves lekérdezés. 314 fő válaszolt a kutatás kérdőívére, mely a tisztított minta 41%-a. A szakértők 80%-a jelezte, hogy a kötelező továbbképzések nem tartalmaztak fogyatékosság-specifikus ismereteket. A válaszadó szakértők több mint 90%-a egyetért azzal, hogy szükséges volna ennek pótlása (n=312). 227 fő nem vett még részt ilyen témájú továbbképzésen, de 78%-uk szívesen tenné, amennyiben rendelkezésre állna ilyen (n=227). A válaszadók (n=308) 59,4%-a nem találkozott még olyan kérdésekkel a felnőttképzési intézmények részéről, melyek a fogyatékossággal élő felnőttek egyenlő esélyű hozzáférését érintik, 46,5%-uk számára ez nehézséget jelentene.  84 fő (27%) fogalmazott meg nyitott kérdés keretében a témával kapcsolatban fejlesztési javaslatokat. The aim of the ÚNKP research is the investigation of whether the obligatory further education modules for adult education experts and program experts (14/2014. (III. 31.) NGM regulation) contain information regarding the conditionality for adults living with disabilities participating in education and the level of difficulty for adult education experts to inform colleges from adult education institutions on questions regarding this subject. A precursor is a research conducted within the framework of the 2016 Phd application of the KJM Foundation, according to which 95% of adult education institutions authorized for a response is of the opinion that the provision of a further education program for adult education experts which contains reference points to facilitate the provision of equal opportunity access would be necessary (n=136). (Hangya, 2016, Hangya, 2017)The method of research is a semi-structured questionnaire survey based on comprehensive sampling. 314 persons answered to the research questionnaire, which makes up 41% of the purified sample. 80% of experts indicated a lack of disability-specific information within the obligatory further education programs. More than 90% of respondents agree that supplementation of such information is necessary (n=312). 227 persons did not yet participate in further education programs within this subject, however, 78% would gladly do so if given the opportunity (n=227). 59,4% of respondents (n=308) did not yet encounter questions from adult education institutions regarding the equal access of adults living with disabilities, 46,5% would consider this a difficulty.  84 persons (27%) formulated developmental suggestions regarding the subject within the framework of an open point.

Independent Candidates and Political Representation in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 678-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
SACHA KAPOOR ◽  
ARVIND MAGESAN
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
The Political ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Independent Candidates

We estimate the causal effect of independent candidates on voter turnout and election outcomes in India. To do this, we exploit exogenous changes in the entry deposit candidates pay for their participation in the political process, changes that disproportionately excluded candidates with no affiliation to established political parties. A one standard deviation increase in the number of independent candidates increases voter turnout by more than 6 percentage points, as some voters choose to vote rather than stay home. The vote share of independent candidates increases by more than 10 percentage points, as some existing voters switch who they vote for. Thus, independents allow winning candidates to win with less vote share, decrease the probability of electing a candidate from the governing coalition by about 31 percentage points, and ultimately increase the probability of electing an ethnic-party candidate. Altogether, the results imply that the price of participation by independents is constituency representation in government.

Achieving the Aims of Open Justice? The Relationship Between the Courts, the Media and the Public

2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharon Rodrick
Keyword(s):  
News Media ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Do So

This article begins by outlining what the principle of open justice is intended to achieve. It then investigates the nature of the relationship that exists between the courts and the media, and between the media and the public, and suggests that these relationships are not always conducive to realising the aims of open justice. While the reporting role of the traditional news media will undoubtedly persist, at least for the foreseeable future, it is argued that, since courts now have the means to deliver to the public a fuller and truer picture of their work than the media can, they should seize the opportunity to do so.

Turnout

2019 ◽  
pp. 309-332
Author(s):  
Serguei Kaniovski
Keyword(s):  
Political Theory ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
National Elections ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World

Within the past seventy years, citizens have cast some twenty-seven billion votes in national elections across the world. This impressive figure would likely double if votes cast in local elections and referenda were included. Electoral participation is a mass phenomenon. However, what exactly motivates people to vote? The question of why people vote has been at the center of positivist political theory. Political scientists and economists have devised numerous theories for why people may or may not vote, in addition to gathering an impressive amount of empirical evidence on the determinants of electoral participation. This chapter offers a bird’s-eye view of historical trends in voter turnout, theories of rational voting motivation, and the role of embedding political or socioeconomic environments, as exposed by empirical research.

Casualties and Incumbents: Do the Casualties from Interstate Conflicts Affect Incumbent Party Vote Share?

2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 795-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael T. Koch
Keyword(s):  
International Conflict ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Investment Model ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Vote ◽  
Interstate Conflicts ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Cross National

Research suggests that the costs of international conflict (e.g. casualties) alter public opinion, executive approval and policy positions of elected officials. However, do casualties affect voting in terms of aggregate outcomes and individual vote choices? This article examines how casualties from interstate conflicts affect voter behaviour, specifically incumbent vote share. Using the investment model of commitment to model individual vote choice, it is argued that increases in the costs of conflict (i.e., more casualties) can increase the probability that voters will support the incumbent, increasing incumbent vote share. This model is tested with both cross-national aggregate data from twenty-three countries and individual-level British survey data. The results support the argument.

scholarly journals Worlding cities through transportation infrastructure

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 617-635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Creighton Connolly
Keyword(s):  
Urban Infrastructure ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Civil Society Organizations ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Master Plan ◽  
City Managers ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Urban Modelling ◽  
Global North ◽  
Do So

This paper engages with emerging literature on worlding cities in analysing the contested ways in which mid-sized cities attempt to ‘globalize’ through the redevelopment of urban infrastructure, and in particular, transportation infrastructure. The paper focuses specifically on the World Heritage City of Penang, Malaysia and critically examines controversies over the extensive urban redevelopment and regeneration projects that have emerged since 2012. In particular, it examines the ambitious Penang Transport Master Plan (PTMP), which has posed considerable implications for the city’s heritage landscapes, but also several socio-environmental impacts. The paper analyses the state government’s vision for the PTMP, before turning to an alternative strategy and critique of this plan put forth by local civil society organizations. As I demonstrate, both plans make use of worlding strategies in ‘selling’ their particular vision for the city’s future, but the ways they do so are markedly different. In reviewing this case, the paper challenges the conceptualization of inter-referencing and urban modelling practices as it is currently documented in the literature on worlding cities. What is novel in Penang is the way local stakeholders identify comparable cities outside of the Global North as models to follow, rather than established mega- or ‘world’ cities, which act as more realistic reference points. In doing so, the paper highlights key technologies of governance that are being used to counter the neoliberal worlding strategies put forth by city managers.

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