scholarly journals The synthesis of strategies for the efficient performance of sophisticated technological complexes based on the cognitive simulation modelling

2021 ◽  
pp. 110-117
Author(s):  
N.A Zaiets ◽  
O.V Savchuk ◽  
V.M Shtepa ◽  
N.M Lutska ◽  
L.O Vlasenko
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Cognitive Modeling ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Cognitive Model ◽  
Oriented Graph ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Systems Methodology

Purpose. Improving the productivity and energy efficiency of complex technological complexes through the development and use of scenario-cognitive modeling in control systems. Methodology. Fuzzy cognitive maps, in the form of a weighted oriented graph, were used to develop a scenario-cognitive model. As a result of the conducted research studies, a new strategy of generalization of an expert estimation of mutual influences of concepts on the basis of methods of the cluster analysis is offered. Findings. Based on experimental research and object-oriented analysis of a complex technological complex, a structure of a fuzzy cognitive model is created. A scenario-cognitive model in the form of a weighted oriented graph (fuzzy cognitive map) has been developed, which illustrates a set of connections and the nature of the interaction of expertly determined factors. To solve the problem of impossibility of operative interrogation of experts in case of change in parameters of functioning of difficult technological complexes, expert estimations of values of weight coefficients of mutual influence of concepts are received. Cluster analysis methods were used to group expert assessments and determine a single value as a result of the research. The results of the scenario-cognitive modeling of the enterprise showed that production shutdowns and abnormal situations related to the failure of electrical equipment, deviations of the technological regime and the quality of wastewater treatment have a significant impact on the dynamics of productivity, energy efficiency and efficient use of equipment. Originality. The new scenario-cognitive model developed for forecasting the situation in the absence of accurate quantitative information consists in creating a fuzzy cognitive map, for modeling which many parameters of complex technological complexes are expertly determined. Using the developed methodology, a degree of interaction of these parameters is found, which allows determining dynamics of change in target criteria of functioning under various management strategies. Practical value. On the basis of the created scenario-cognitive model, software has been developed which allowed analyzing dynamics of change in productivity, energy efficiency and efficiency of use of the equipment under possible scenarios of functioning of difficult technological complexes is developed.

scholarly journals Detecting Errors in Cognitive Models Using Visualization Metaphors of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

2020 ◽  
pp. short13-1-short13-8
Author(s):  
Ruslan Isaev ◽  
Aleksandr Podvesovskii
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Model ◽  
Visual Image ◽  
Cognitive Maps ◽  
Cognitive Models ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Successful Implementation

Verification of cognitive models is one of the most important stages in their construction, since reliability of results of subsequent modeling largely depends on the successful implementation of verification. The paper considers the problem of verifying cause-and-effect relationships in cognitive models based on the use of fuzzy cognitive maps. It is noted that increasing the effectiveness of cognitive model verification is possible by activating analyst's cognitive potential. The most natural way of such activation is to increase cognitive clarity of the model through the use of visualization capabilities. For this purpose, a number of metaphors for visualizing fuzzy cognitive maps have been proposed, aimed at increasing their cognitive clarity during verification. Each of the metaphors is focused on the visualization of a certain type of fragments of a fuzzy cognitive map potentially containing errors, redundancy or incompleteness and therefore of interest from the point of view of verification. The first considered visualization metaphor is intended to display the cycles that are part of a cognitive graph. The second metaphor focuses on the mapping of transitive paths between concepts. Finally, the third metaphor is aimed at eliminating cognitive model incompleteness, which consists in the lack of relationships between some concepts. Examples are given of applying the proposed visualization metaphors to increase cognitive clarity of the visual image of the verified fuzzy cognitive map.

scholarly journals Cognitive Modeling of the Cyber Attack Vector Based on CAPEC Methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 2-16
Author(s):  
Vladimir Vasilyev ◽  
◽  
Anastasia Kirillova ◽  
Alexey Vulfin ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Modeling ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Cyber Attack ◽  
Automated Process Control System ◽  
Software Modules ◽  
Vector Modeling ◽  
Oil Company

Purpose: automation of complex attack vector modeling based on formalized CAPEC meta-pattern based on fuzzy cognitive maps. Methods: modeling a tool in the form of a graph with a further form of development in the form of a hierarchical fuzzy cognitive map for analysis using the potential level of detail and quantitative assessment of cybersecurity risks. Practical relevance: a scenario approach to modeling complex multistep targeted cyberattacks is proposed based on the draft Methodology for modeling security threats of the FSTEC of Russia and the base of meta- pattern for attacks CAPEC. The algorithm for “folding” a detailed fuzzy cognitive map of the attack vector is shown using the example of the threat of interception of control of an automated process control system of an oil company with an assessment of the probability of implementation, considering the severity level of exploited vulnerabilities. The main software modules of the system have been developed. Computational experiments were carried out to assess the effectiveness of its application. It is shown that as a result of analyzing the vector of cyberattacks in a fuzzy cognitive basis, an expert can rank possible scenarios of implementation, considering the vulnerabilities used, assess the level of danger of the implementation of each scenario separately and cyberattacks as a whole.

The prediction of online time series with concept drift based on dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 949-972
Author(s):  
Nannan Zhang ◽  
Xixi Yao ◽  
Chao Luo
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Sequence Data ◽  
Concept Drift ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Online Data ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Public Data

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) have widely been applied for knowledge representation and reasoning. However, in real life, reasoning is always accompanied with hesitation, which is deriving from the uncertainty and fuzziness. Especially, when processing the online data, since the internal and external interference, the distribution and characteristics of sequence data would be considerably changed along with the passage of time, which further increase the difficulty of modeling. In this article, based on intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, a new dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map (DIFCM) scheme is proposed for online data prediction. Combined with a novel detection algorithm of concept drift, the structure of DIFCM can be adaptively updated with the online learning scheme, which can effectively improve the representation of online information by capturing the real-time changes of sequence data. Moreover, in order to tackle with the possible hesitancy in the process of modeling, intuitionistic fuzzy set is applied in the construction of dynamic FCM, where hesitation degree as a quantitative index explicitly expresses the hesitancy. Finally, a series of experiments using public data sets verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Theoretical justification of pedagogical situations cognitive modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-247
Author(s):  
Alsu Raufovna Kamaleeva ◽  
Svetlana Yurevna Gruzkova
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Modeling ◽  
Cognitive Model ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Theoretical Justification ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
The Third ◽  
Third Stage ◽  
Major Factors

The following paper deals with the application of methodology of pedagogical situations cognitive modeling, which is considered by the authors as a process consisting of six consecutive and interconnected stages. The first stage is a formulation of the purpose and the corresponding tasks. The second stage provides collecting, systematization and analysis of a pedagogical situation with the subsequent allocation of the major factors influencing development of the situation and determination of interrelation between them, i.e. creation of a cognitive map. At the third stage a focused count is created as a result of accounting of the cause and effect chains reflecting the system of interaction between the educational process subjects and allowing to form a pedagogical theory on the basis of basic person study categories: consciousness, thinking, knowledge, understanding, etc. The fourth stage assumes combination of the cognitive map and the focused count in a uniform cognitive model of the studied pedagogical situation. The fifth stage is focused on a real pedagogical situation cognitive model adequacy check i.e. on its verification. The last sixth stage allows to define possible options of a pedagogical situation development by a cognitive model, to find ways and mechanisms of a situation impact.

scholarly journals ENTERPRISE SALES MANAGEMENT BASED ON THE USE OF THE ISHIKAWA CHART

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serhii Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Sales Management ◽  
Marketing Research ◽  
Oriented Graph ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Target Market ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Swot Matrix

Marketing research at an enterprise is carried out by marketing units in order to determine a possible increase in the marketing activity of the enterprise. To identify the strengths and weaknesses of the sales management of the enterprise, the SWOT-analysis method was applied. A matrix of SWOT analysis of company's sales activity was built, which forms squares in the form of a combination of the following factors: "Strengths-Opportunities" (SO), "Strengths-Threats" (ST), "Weaknesses-Possibilities" (WO), "Weaknesses-Threats" (WT). The most significant intersections of the SWOT matrix factors of the analysis were analyzed, and it was proposed to use four types of strategies on their basis. To formalize cause-and-effect relations Ishikawa diagram was used. In the constructed diagram, the sales activity of the enterprise depends on 5 main groups of characteristics. It is suggested the management of sales activities of the enterprise based on the expansion of the target market, which is characterized by factors (linguistic variables) competitive environment (T1), market segmentation (T2), quality of advertising (T3), digital marketing (T4), product quality (T5) and sales activity (T6). Due to the great uncertainty of the factors influencing sales activities, a solution to the problem of sales management is proposed, which is based on the representation of the system in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map. Establishing links between input (T1,…, T5) and output (T6) vertices allows you to build a fuzzy cognitive map of the sales management process of the enterprise, in the form of an oriented graph based on the adjacency matrix. In the constructed model of the oriented graph all actions of factors (vertices) on each other are in an interval [0; 1]. Therefore, this model is presented as a structural model of the sales management process of the enterprise. It is concluded that a more accurate model can be constructed by giving the arcs of the oriented graph numerical values (weights). The weight of the arcs is interpreted as the force of influence of the factor, and the sign can be both positive (increase in influence) and negative (decrease in influence).

scholarly journals The Modeling of Time Series Based on Least Square Fuzzy Cognitive Map

Algorithms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Guoliang Feng ◽  
Wei Lu ◽  
Jianhua Yang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

A novel design method for time series modeling and prediction with fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) is proposed in this paper. The developed model exploits the least square method to learn the weight matrix of FCM derived from the given historical data of time series. A fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm is used to construct the concepts of the FCM. Compared with the traditional FCM, the least square fuzzy cognitive map (LSFCM) is a direct solution procedure without iterative calculations. LSFCM model is a straightforward, robust and rapid learning method, owing to its reliable and efficient. In addition, the structure of the LSFCM can be further optimized with refinements the position of the concepts for the higher prediction precision, in which the evolutionary optimization algorithm is used to find the optimal concepts. Withal, we discussed in detail the number of concepts and the parameters of activation function on the impact of FCM models. The publicly available time series data sets with different statistical characteristics coming from different areas are applied to evaluate the proposed modeling approach. The obtained results clearly show the effectiveness of the approach.

scholarly journals Substantiation of management decisions related to enterprise development based on energy efficiency

2020 ◽  
pp. 23-27
Author(s):  
Tetiana HILORME
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Cognitive Modeling ◽  
Innovation Management ◽  
Cognitive Model ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Energy Industry ◽  
Enterprise Development ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Efficient Management ◽  
The Impact

The paper investigates the peculiarities of constructing a cognitive model of development for enterprises on the basis of energy efficiency. The stages of conducting cognitive modeling for managing the development of enterprises in the energy industry have been determined within the scope of work. Cognitive analysis and modeling are conceptually innovative elements within the structure of the system dedicated to generation of efficient management decisions, which further allows: to study problems with vague factors and interconnections; to account for the impact of changes in the external environment; to use the objective trends in the innovative development of the situation to company’s advantage. Such technologies are increasingly gaining trust and confidence with organizations engaged in strategic and operational planning on all levels and across all spheres of innovation management of enterprise development. Employing cognitive technologies in the economic sphere enables to develop and substantiate a strategy of innovation management of enterprise development with the consideration for the impact of changes in external and internal environment. The work examines the factors of the cognitive model of innovation management of development for enterprise of energy industry based upon four sectors: enterprises in the energy sector; energy generation business; government; ecology. A study has been conducted in relation to the impact of 16 factors of external business environment on generating adjective decisions with regard to managing the development of enterprises in the energy industry on the basis of impulse modeling. It has been proven that within the system of innovation management of enterprise development the key object-oriented factor is the «Level of enterprise development» while other factors remain controllable. It is namely due to the dynamic analysis that it becomes possible to determine stabilizing and destabilizing factors of influence on the development of enterprises. Within the scope of the paper, the ranges of change in indicator factors related to management of enterprise development in the «min-max» system have been identified. Prospects of further research lie with constructing scenarios for development of enterprises in the energy industry, particularly with the implementation of impulse modeling that would allow to elaborate development strategies, specifically concerning the use of renewable sources of energy.

scholarly journals Fuzzy cognitive maps in the dependability analysis of systems

Dependability ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 24-31
Author(s):  
A. Р. Rotshtein
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Cognitive Maps ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Machine Systems

Aim. Dependability simulation of a complex system starts with its structuring, i.e. partitioning into components (blocks, units, elements), for which probabilities of failure are known. The classical dependability theory uses the concept of structural function that allows ranking elements by their importance, which is required for optimal distribution of the resources allocated to ensuring system dependability. Man-machine systems are structured using an algorithmic description of discrete processes of operation, where the presence of clear boundaries between individual operations allows collecting statistical data on the probabilities of error that is required for modeling. Algorithmization is complicated in case of man-machine systems with continuous human activity, where the absence of clear boundaries between operations prevents the correct assessment of the probability of their correct performance. For that reason, the process of operation has to be considered as a single operation, whose correct performance depends on heterogeneous and interconnected human-machine system-related, technical, software-specific, managerial and other factors. The simulated system becomes a “black box” with unknown structure (output is dependability, inputs are contributing factors), while the problem of element ranking typical to the dependability theory comes down to the problem of factor ranking. Regression analysis is one of the most popular means of multifactor dependability simulation of man-machine systems. It requires a large quantity of experimental data and is not compatible with qualitative factors that are measured by expert methods. The “if – then” fuzzy rule is a convenient tool for expert information processing. However, regression analysis and fuzzy rules have a common limitation: they require independent input variables, i.e. contributing factors. Fuzzy cognitive maps do not have this restriction. They are a new simulation tool that is not yet widely used in the dependability theory. The Aim of the paper is to raise awareness of dependability simulation with fuzzy cognitive maps.Method. It is proposed – based on the theory of fuzzy cognitive maps – to rank factors that affect system dependability. The method is based on the formalization of causal relationships between the contributing factors and the dependability in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map, i.e. directed graph, whose node correspond to the system’s dependability and contributing factors, while the weighted edges indicate the magnitude of the factors’ effect on each other and the system’s dependability. The rank of a factor is defined as an equivalent of the element’s importance index per Birnbaum, which, in the probabilistic dependability theory is calculated based on the structure function.Results. Models and algorithms are proposed for calculation of the importance indexes of single factors and respective effects that affect system dependability represented with a fuzzy cognitive map. The method is exemplified by the dependability and safety of an automobile in the “driver-automobile-road” system subject to the driver’s qualification, traffic situation, unit costs of operation, operating conditions, maintenance scheduling, quality of maintenance and repair, quality of automobile design, quality of operational materials and spare parts, as well as storage conditions.Conclusions. The advantages of the method include: a) use of available expert information with no collection and processing statistical data; b) capability to take into account any quantitative and qualitative factors associated with people, technology, software, quality of service, operating conditions, etc.; c) ease of expansion of the number of considered factors through the introduction of additional nodes and edges of the cognitive map graph. The method can be applied to complex systems with fuzzy structures, whose dependability strongly depends on interrelated factors that are measured by means of expert methods.

SIMPLIFICATION, MERGING AND DIVISION OF FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPS

2002 ◽  
Vol 02 (02) ◽  
pp. 185-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUAN MIAO ◽  
ZHI-QIANG LIU ◽  
XUE HON TAO ◽  
ZHI QI SHEN ◽  
CHUN WEN LI
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Representation ◽  
Causal Inference ◽  
Structural Complexity ◽  
Cognitive Maps ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Flexible Framework ◽  
Improved Methods

Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) is a powerful and flexible framework for knowledge representation and causal inference. However, in most real applications, it is difficult to design and analyze FCMs due to their structural complexity. Simplification, merging, and division are the important operations on the structure of FCMs. In this paper we present approaches to simplifying FCMs. These approaches show how to clean up a FCM, how to divide a complex FCM into basic FCMs, and how to extract the eigen structure of these basic FCMs. Two improved methods for merging FCMs from different human experts are also proposed in this paper. We discuss difficulties in merging FCMs and present possible solutions.

scholarly journals Foresight: a new approach based on the Z-number cognitive map

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa Izadi ◽  
Hamidreza Seiti ◽  
Mostafa Jafarian
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Maps ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Main Stage ◽  
Cognitive Approach ◽  
Primary Focus ◽  
Ultimate Objective

AbstractForesight has recently emerged as one of the most attractive and practical fields of study, while being used to draw up a preferable future and formulate appropriate strategies for achieving predetermined goals. The present research aimed at providing a framework for foresight with a primary focus on the role of a cognitive approach and its combination with the concept of fuzzy cognitive map in the environments of uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed framework consisted of the 3 phases: pre-foresight, foresight, and post-foresight. The main stage (foresight) focused on the role of imagination and intuition in drawing the future in the experts’ minds and depicting their perceptions above perceptions in the form of a fuzzy cognitive map influenced by variables related to the subject under study in order to determine a preferable future. The use of a Z-number concept and integrating it with fuzzy cognitive maps in the foresight-oriented decision-making space, which was mainly saturated with uncertainty and ambiguity, was one of the main strengths of the proposed framework in the current investigation. The present paper focused primarily on the evolution of expert’s knowledge with regard to the topic of foresight. The role of Z-number in various processes, from data collection to illustration, analysis, and aggregation of cognitive maps, was considered for gaining knowledge and understanding into the nature of future. Moreover, an ultimate objective was realized through identifying, aggregating, and selecting the variables from each expert’s perspective and then the relationship between each variable was determined in the main stage of foresight. Finally, the proposed framework was presented and explicated in the form of a case study, which revealed satisfactory results.

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