scholarly journals Property Risk Assessment for Expansive Soils in Louisiana

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubayet Bin Mostafiz ◽  
Carol J. Friedland ◽  
Robert V. Rohli ◽  
Nazla Bushra ◽  
Chad L. Held
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Expansive Soils ◽  
The State ◽  
Swelling Potential ◽  
South Central ◽  
Block Level ◽  
Property Loss ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Building Loss

The physical properties of soil can affect the stability of construction. In particular, soil swelling potential (a term which includes swelling/shrinking) is often overlooked as a natural hazard. Similar to risk assessment for other hazards, assessing risk for soil swelling can be defined as the product of the probability of the hazard and the value of property subjected to the hazard. This research utilizes past engineering and geological assessments of soil swelling potential, along with economic data from the U.S. Census, to assess the risk for soil swelling at the census-block level in Louisiana, a U.S. state with a relatively dense population that is vulnerable to expansive soils. Results suggest that the coastal parts of the state face the highest risk, particularly in the areas of greater population concentrations, but that all developed parts of the state have some risk. The annual historical property loss, per capita property loss, and per building property loss are all concentrated in southeastern Louisiana and extreme southwestern Louisiana, but the concentration of wealth in cities increases the historical property loss in most of the urban areas. Projections of loss by 2050 show a similar pattern, but with increased per building loss in and around a swath of cities across southwestern and south-central Louisiana. These results may assist engineers, architects, and developers as they strive to enhance the resilience of buildings and infrastructure to the multitude of environmental hazards in Louisiana.

scholarly journals The characteristics of lightning risk and zoning in Beijing simulated by a risk assessment model

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 1985-1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Hu ◽  
J. Wang ◽  
J. Pan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Location Factor ◽  
Property Loss

Abstract. In this study, the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash/stroke density was derived from the lightning location finder (LLF) data recorded between 2007 and 2011. The vulnerability of land surfaces was then assessed from the classification of the study areas into buildings, outdoor areas under the building canopy and open-field areas, which makes it convenient to deduce the location factor and confirm the protective capability. Subsequently, the potential number of dangerous lightning events at a location could be estimated from the product of the CG stroke density and the location's vulnerability. Although the human beings and all their material properties are identically exposed to lightning, the lightning casualty risk and property loss risk was assessed respectively due to their vulnerability discrepancy. Our analysis of the CG flash density in Beijing revealed that the valley of JuMaHe to the southwest, the ChangPing–ShunYi zone downwind of the Beijing metropolis, and the mountainous PingGu–MiYun zone near the coast are the most active lightning areas, with densities greater than 1.5 flashes km−2 year−1. Moreover, the mountainous northeastern, northern, and northwestern rural areas are relatively more vulnerable to lightning because the high-elevation terrain attracts lightning and there is little protection. In contrast, lightning incidents by induced lightning are most likely to occur in densely populated urban areas, and the property damage caused by lightning here is more extensive than that in suburban and rural areas. However, casualty incidents caused by direct lightning strokes seldom occur in urban areas. On the other hand, the simulation based on the lightning risk assessment model (LRAM) demonstrates that the casualty risk is higher in rural areas, whereas the property loss risk is higher in urban areas, and this conclusion is also supported by the historical casualty and damage reports.

scholarly journals Shallow landslide prediction and analysis with risk assessment using a spatial model in a coastal region in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2449-2468 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. I. M. Camarinha ◽  
V. Canavesi ◽  
R. C. S. Alvalá
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Shallow Landslide ◽  
Civil Defense ◽  
The State ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Brazilian Coast ◽  
São Paulo

Abstract. This study presents a methodology for susceptibility mapping of shallow landslides just from data and software from the public domain. The study was conducted in a mountainous region located on the southeastern Brazilian coast, in the state of São Paulo. The proposal is that the methodology can be replicated in a practical and reliable way in several other municipalities that do not have such mappings and that often suffer from landslide-related disasters. The susceptibility mapping was generated based on the following maps: geological, soils, slope, horizontal and vertical curvatures, and land use. The thematic classes of these maps were weighted according to technical and scientific criteria related to the triggering of landslides, and were crossed by the fuzzy gamma technique. The mapping was compared with the risk sector survey made by the Brazilian Geological Survey (CPRM), which is the official database used by municipalities and civil defense in risk management. The results showed positive correlations, so that the critical risk sectors had higher proportions for the more susceptible classes. To compare the approach with other studies using landslide-scar maps, correlated indices were evaluated, which also showed satisfactory results, thus indicating that the methodology presented is appropriate for risk assessment in urban areas.

scholarly journals The characteristics of lightning risk and zoning in Beijing simulated by a risk assessment model

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 4115-4154 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Hu ◽  
J. Wang ◽  
J. Pan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Location Factor ◽  
Property Loss

Abstract. In this study, the Cloud-to-Ground (CG) lightning flash/stroke density has been derived from the Lightning Location Finder (LLF) data recorded in recent years. Meanwhile, the vulnerability on land surfaces has been assessed by the classification of the building, outdoor area under the building canopy and open-field area, which makes it convenient to deduce the location factor and confirm the protective capability. Then, the number of dangerous lightning event can be estimated by product of the CG stroke density and vulnerability. Although the human beings and all their material properties are identically exposed to lightning, the lightning casualty risk and property loss risk have been assessed respectively due to their vulnerability discrepancy. The analysis of the CG flash density in Beijing revealed that the JuMaHe river-valley in the southwestern region, the ChangPing–ShunYi zone downwind of the Beijing metropolis, and the mountainous PingGu–MiYun zone near the seashore are the most active lightning areas, with densities greater than 1.5 fl km-2 yr-1. Moreover, the mountainous northeastern, northern, and northwestern rural areas are relatively vulnerable to lightning due to the ability of high elevation terrain to attract lightning and the lack of protection measures. In contrast, lightning incidents by indirect lightning are most likely to occur in urban areas with high population density and aggregated properties, and the property damages caused by lightning are more extensive than those in suburban and rural areas. However, casualty incidents caused by direct lightning strokes seldom occur in urban areas. On the other hand, the simulation based on the Lightning Risk Assessment Model (LRAM) demonstrates that the casualty risk is higher in rural, whereas the property loss risk is higher in urban, and this conclusion is also supported by the historical casualty and damage reports.

Cracking national integration after the events (the Arab Spring) and its impact On regional stability

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Muhannad Al Janabi Al Janabi
Keyword(s):  
Arab Spring ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Prominent Feature ◽  
Regional Stability ◽  
National Integration ◽  
Arab Region ◽  
Political Media ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Arab Spring

Since late 2010 and early 2011, the Arab region has witnessed mass protests in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Bahrain and other countries that have been referred to in the political, media and other literature as the Arab Spring. These movements have had a profound effect on the stability of the regimes Which took place against it, as leaders took off and contributed to radical reforms in party structures and public freedoms and the transfer of power, but it also contributed to the occurrence of many countries in an internal spiral, which led to the erosion of the state from the inside until it became a prominent feature of the Arab) as is the case in Syria, Libya, Yemen and Iraq.

IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT DEBT ON FINANCIAL SECURITY OF UKRAINE

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Pikaliuk ◽  
◽  
Dmitry Kovalenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
State Budget ◽  
The Public ◽  
Debt Security ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

One of the main criteria for economic development is the size of the public debt and its dynamics. The article considers the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine. The views of scientists on the essence of public debt and financial security of the state are substantiated. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of public debt of Ukraine for 2014-2019. It is proved that one of the main criteria for economic development is the size of public debt and its dynamics. State budget deficit, attracting and using loans to cover it have led to the formation and significant growth of public debt in Ukraine. The volume of public debt indicates an increase in the debt security of the state, which is a component of financial security. Therefore, the issue of the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine is becoming increasingly relevant. The constant growth and large amounts of debt make it necessary to study it, which will have a positive impact on economic processes that will ensure the stability of the financial system and enhance its security.

The Political Economy of Rural-Urban Conflict

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Topher L. McDougal
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
The State ◽  
Hierarchical Networks ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Trade Networks ◽  
Rural And Urban Areas ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Economic Relationship ◽  
Relationship Of

In some cases of insurgency, the combat frontier is contested and erratic, as rebels target cities as their economic prey. In other cases, it is tidy and stable, seemingly representing an equilibrium in which cities are effectively protected from violent non-state actors. What factors account for these differences in the interface urban-based states and rural-based challengers? To explore this question, this book examines two regions representing two dramatically different outcomes. In West Africa (Liberia and Sierra Leone), capital cities became economic targets for rebels, who posed dire threats to the survival of the state. In Maoist India, despite an insurgent ideology aiming to overthrow the state via a strategy of progressive city capture, the combat frontier effectively firewalls cities from Maoist violence. This book argues that trade networks underpinning the economic relationship between rural and urban areas—termed “interstitial economies”—may differ dramatically in their impact on (and response to) the combat frontier. It explains rebel predatory tendencies toward cities as a function of transport networks allowing monopoly profits to be made by urban-based traders. It explains combat frontier delineation as a function of the social structure of the trade networks: hierarchical networks permit elite–elite bargains that cohere the frontier. These factors represent what might be termed respectively the “hardware” and “software” of the rural–urban economic relationship. Of interest to any student of political economy and violence, this book presents new arguments and insights about the relationships between violence and the economy, predation and production, core and periphery.

Spatiotemporal clustering, social inequities and the risk of leptospirosis in an endemic area of Brazil: a retrospective spatial modelling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katyucia O C de Souza ◽  
José Augusto P Góes ◽  
Matheus S Melo ◽  
Paula M G Leite ◽  
Lucas A Andrade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
The State ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Social Inequities

Abstract Background Leptospirosis is an endemic disease in Brazil of social and economic relevance related to behavioural and socioenvironmental factors. This study aimed to analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of the incidence of leptospirosis and its association with social determinants in health in a state of northeastern Brazil. Methods An ecological study of temporal series with techniques of spatial analysis using secondary data of the cases of leptospirosis notified in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases of the state of Sergipe (2008–2017) was conducted. The analysis of temporal trends was performed using Poisson regression. Spatial analyses were performed using the Moran index, the local empirical Bayesian model, scan statistics and spatial regression. Results The incidence rate decreased from 3.66 to 1.44 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2008 and 2017, respectively. Leptospirosis was associated with social inequities, mostly affecting males aged 20–49 y living in urban areas. The space-time scan indicated the formation of a risk cluster in municipalities in the metropolitan region of the state. Conclusions The data indicated the persistence of leptospirosis transmission, maintaining a pattern of high endemicity in some municipalities associated with social inequities. The study showed the temporal and spatial dynamics of the disease to better target specific actions for prevention and control.

scholarly journals A New Identification Method Reveals the Resistance of an Extensive-Source Radish Collection to Plasmodiophora brassicae Race 4

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 792
Author(s):  
Haohui Yang ◽  
Yuxiang Yuan ◽  
Xiaochun Wei ◽  
Xiaohui Zhang ◽  
Haiping Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Plasmodiophora Brassicae ◽  
Central China ◽  
Clubroot Disease ◽  
Cruciferous Vegetable ◽  
Inoculation Methods ◽  
Identification Method ◽  
South Central ◽  
Disease Occurrence ◽  
Resistant Varieties ◽  
The Stability

Raphanus sativus, an important cruciferous vegetable, has been increasingly affected by clubroot disease. Establishing a stable and accurate resistance identification method for screening resistant germplasms is urgently needed in radish. In this study, the influence of inoculum concentration, inoculation methods, and pH of the substrate on disease occurrence was studied. The result showed that the disease index (DI) was highest at 2 × 108 spores/mL, the efficiency of two-stage combined inoculation methods was higher than others, and pH 6.5 was favorable for the infection of P. brassicae. By using this new method, DIs of 349 radish germplasms varying from 0.00 to 97.04, presented significantly different levels of resistance. Analysis showed that 85.06% germplasms from China were susceptible to P. brassicae, whilst 28 accessions were resistant and mainly distributed in east, southwest, northwest, and south-central China. Most of the exotic germplasms were resistant. Repeated experiments verified the stability and reliability of the method and the identity of germplasm resistance. In total, 13 immune, 5 highly resistant and 21 resistant radish accessions were identified. This study provides an original clubroot-tolerance evaluation technology and valuable materials for the development of broad-spectrum resistant varieties for sustainable clubroot management in radish and other cruciferous crops.

scholarly journals Reliability Estimation of Reinforced Slopes to Prioritize Maintenance Actions

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 373
Author(s):  
Farshad BahooToroody ◽  
Saeed Khalaj ◽  
Leonardo Leoni ◽  
Filippo De Carlo ◽  
Gianpaolo Di Bona ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Likelihood Function ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Geotechnical Structures ◽  
Reinforced Slopes ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Methods Analytical ◽  
Asset Managers

Geosynthetics are extensively utilized to improve the stability of geotechnical structures and slopes in urban areas. Among all existing geosynthetics, geotextiles are widely used to reinforce unstable slopes due to their capabilities in facilitating reinforcement and drainage. To reduce settlement and increase the bearing capacity and slope stability, the classical use of geotextiles in embankments has been suggested. However, several catastrophic events have been reported, including failures in slopes in the absence of geotextiles. Many researchers have studied the stability of geotextile-reinforced slopes (GRSs) by employing different methods (analytical models, numerical simulation, etc.). The presence of source-to-source uncertainty in the gathered data increases the complexity of evaluating the failure risk in GRSs since the uncertainty varies among them. Consequently, developing a sound methodology is necessary to alleviate the risk complexity. Our study sought to develop an advanced risk-based maintenance (RBM) methodology for prioritizing maintenance operations by addressing fluctuations that accompany event data. For this purpose, a hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) was applied to estimate the failure probabilities of GRSs. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations of likelihood function and prior distribution, the HBA can incorporate the aforementioned uncertainties. The proposed method can be exploited by urban designers, asset managers, and policymakers to predict the mean time to failures, thus directly avoiding unnecessary maintenance and safety consequences. To demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology, the performance of nine reinforced slopes was considered. The results indicate that the average failure probability of the system in an hour is 2.8×10−5 during its lifespan, which shows that the proposed evaluation method is more realistic than the traditional methods.

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