scholarly journals Large Future Increase in Exposure Risks of Extreme Heat Within Southern China Under Warming Scenario

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Cao ◽  
Gen Li ◽  
Meiyan Rong ◽  
Jinyi Yang ◽  
Feng Xu
Keyword(s):  
High Temperatures ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Large Spread ◽  
Extreme High Temperature ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Exposure Risks

With the continued global warming, quantifying the risks of human and social-economic exposure to extremely high temperatures is very essential. The simulated extreme high-temperature days (EHTDs) with a maximum temperature higher than 35°C (38°C, 40°C) in Southern China during 1980–1999 and 2080–2099 are analyzed using the NEX-GDDP dataset. By comparing the climatology of the two scenario periods, the multi-model ensemble mean patterns show that EHTDs will greatly increase at the end of the 21st century, and its center at 35°C is projected to shift to Guangxi from Jiangxi. Model diversities are fairly small, and the spread increases with T-level rises. EOF analysis shows that the 100-years warming will impact the southern part greater than the northern part. Trend patterns exhibit comparable results to models, but with a relatively large spread. The population and economy exposure to extremely high temperatures are calculated, showing that they both will experience a large increase in future projected decades. In historical decades, the growth of population and Gross Domestic Product have dominated the increasing exposure risks, but these effects weaken with the T-level increases. In future decades, climate change plays a leading role in affecting the exposure, and its effect strengthens with the T-level increases. For historical to future changes, the dominant contributor to population exposure changes is the climate factor (74%), while substantially 90% contribution to economy exposure changes is dominated by the combined effects of climate and economy growth.

scholarly journals Heatwave Trends and the Population Exposure Over China in the 21st Century as Well as Under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warmer Future Scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhansheng Li ◽  
Xiaolin Guo ◽  
Yuan Yang ◽  
Yang Hong ◽  
Zhongjing Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Central China ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Annual Total

Heatwaves exert negative socio-economic impacts and particularly have serious effects on public health. Based on the multi-model ensemble (MME) results of 10 downscaled high-resolution Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model output from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NASA-GDDP), the intensity (largest lasting time), frequency and total duration of heatwaves over China as well as population exposure in the 21st century and at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels are investigated by using the three indices, the Heat Wave Duration Index (HWDI), annual total frequency of heatwaves (N_HW) and annual total days of heatwaves (T_HW) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MME results illustrate that heatwaves are projected to become more frequent (0.40/decade and 1.26/decade for N_HW), longer-lasting (3.78 days/decade and 14.59 days/decade for T_HW) as well as more extreme (1.07 days/decade and 2.90 days/decade for HWDI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively) over China. High latitude and high altitude regions, e.g., the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, are projected to experience a larger increase of intensity, frequency and the total time of heatwaves compared with southern China (except Central China). The total population affected by heatwaves is projected to increase significantly and will reach 1.18 billion in later part of the 21st century, and there will be more and more people expected to suffer long heatwave time (T_HW) in the 21st century. Compared with a 2.0 °C global warming climate, holding the global warming below 1.5 °C can avoid 26.9% and 29.1% of the increase of HWDI, 34.7% and 39.64% for N_TW and 35.3%–40.10% of T_HW under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The half-degree less of warming will not only decrease the population exposure by 53–83 million but also avoid the threat caused by longer heatwave exposure under the two scenarios. Based on the comprehensive assessment of heatwave under the two RCP scenarios, this work would help to enhance the understanding of climate change and consequent risk in China and thus could provide useful information for making climate adaptation policies.

Persevering through Colonial Transition: Nazareth's Palestinian Residents after 1948

2016 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 8-23
Author(s):  
Leena Dallasheh
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
National Minority ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ambivalent Relationship ◽  
The One ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
State Of Israel ◽  
The Ideal

Nazareth, the only Palestinian city to survive the 1948 war intact, became the social, economic, and political hub of Palestinian life in the postwar period. As such, it provides the ideal setting to study early Palestinian responses to the creation of Israel. This paper reexamines the ambivalent relationship between Nazareth's political leadership and the newly established State of Israel to argue that the Palestinian citizens of Israel were neither traitors and collaborators, on the one hand, nor passively quiescent, on the other. Rather, as a new national minority, Palestinians overcame myriad forms of control as they negotiated the structural obstacles placed before them by their new overlords. Local Communist politicians, in particular, took a leading role to advocate on behalf of Nazarenes beset by the day-to-day hardships of poverty, hunger, displacement, and unemployment. The Israeli authorities harped on the Communist threat in response, echoing the Cold War rhetoric of the time.

The influence of pasture distribution and temperature on habitat selection by feral pigs in a semi-arid environment

1998 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Dexter
Keyword(s):  
High Temperature ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Radio Telemetry ◽  
Arid Environment ◽  
Food Distribution ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Feral Pigs ◽  
North West ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
Two Parameters

The two parameters believed to influence habitat utilisation by feral pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa) are protection from high temperatures and distribution of food. However, whether there is an interaction between these parameters is unknown. To examine the influence of high temperature on habitat utilisation, the use of four rangeland habitats (shrubland, woodland, riverine woodland, and ephemeral swamps) by feral pigs in north-west New South Wales, Australia, was measured by radio-telemetry during and after a drought. In each habitat, protection from high temperature was indexed once by vegetation cover, at three strata, while over the course of the study, food distribution was indexed by estimating pasture biomass in each habitat. Riverine woodland provided the most shelter from high temperature, followed by woodland, shrubland and ephemeral swamps. On average, ephemeral swamps had the highest pasture biomass, followed by riverine woodland, shrubland and woodland. The amount of pasture in each habitat increased after the drought but changed at different rates. During autumn, spring and summer feral pigs preferred riverine woodland but in winter shrubland was preferred. Multivariate regression indicated that habitat utilisation was significantly influenced by pasture biomass in shrubland and mean maximum temperature in the study area. The results suggest that feral pigs are restricted by high temperatures to more shady habitats during hot weather but when the constraint of high temperature is relaxed they distribute themselves more according to the availability of food.

scholarly journals The thermal conductivities of certain approximately pure metals and alloys at high temperatures

1931 ◽  
Vol 134 (823) ◽  
pp. 57-76 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flow ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Heat Losses ◽  
Metals And Alloys ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Internal Heating ◽  
Heating Coil ◽  
Pure Metals ◽  
Guard Tube ◽  
Thermal Conductivities

Measurements have been made by several observers on the thermal conductivities of metals and alloys up to high temperatures. Heat losses to the surroundings become large at high temperatures, hence the guard tube method, which to a great extent eliminates these losses, has been popular for work at these temperatures. This method was described and used by Berget in 1888, and later by Wilkes. These observers measured the rate of heat flow by a calorimetric method, which is not suitable for work at high temperatures. Honda and Simidu, using an internal heating coil, determined the heat flow from the energy input and were able to obtain results for nickel and steel to over 800°C. More recently, Schofield, using the guard tube method with an internal heating coil, has obtained results up to a maximum temperature of 700°C. with five metals. The present work was undertaken with a view to continuing the work of Professor C. H. Lees on the effect of temperatures between —160°C. and 15°C. on the thermal conductivities of nine metals and six alloys.

scholarly journals Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola: an Ensemble approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samson Leta ◽  
Eyerusalem Fetene ◽  
Tesfaye Mulatu ◽  
Kebede Amenu ◽  
Megarsa Bedasa Jaleta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Global Distribution ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Culicoides Imicola ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Annual Maximum Temperature

Abstract Culicoides imicola is a midge species serving as vector for a number of viral diseases of livestock, including Bluetongue, and African Horse Sickness. C. imicola is also known to transmit Schmallenberg virus experimentally. Environmental and demographic factors may impose rapid changes on the global distribution of C. imicola and aid introduction into new areas. The aim of this study is to predict the global distribution of C. imicola using an ensemble modeling approach by combining climatic, livestock distribution and land cover covariates, together with a comprehensive global dataset of geo-positioned occurrence points for C. imicola. Thirty individual models were generated by ‘biomod2’, with 21 models scoring a true skill statistic (TSS) >0.8. These 21 models incorporated weighted runs from eight of ten algorithms and were used to create a final ensemble model. The ensemble model performed very well (TSS = 0.898 and ROC = 0.991) and indicated high environmental suitability for C. imicola in the tropics and subtropics. The habitat suitability for C. imicola spans from South Africa to southern Europe and from southern USA to southern China. The distribution of C. imicola is mainly constrained by climatic factors. In the ensemble model, mean annual minimum temperature had the highest overall contribution (42.9%), followed by mean annual maximum temperature (21.1%), solar radiation (13.6%), annual precipitation (11%), livestock distribution (6.2%), vapor pressure (3.4%), wind speed (0.8%), and land cover (0.1%). The present study provides the most up-to-date predictive maps of the potential distributions of C. imicola and should be of great value for decision making at global and regional scales.

Effect of temperature and moist conditions on seed dormancy cycling of two sympatric limestone species, Begonia guishanensis and Paraisometrum mileense, in southern China

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Jian Hu ◽  
Cheng Liu ◽  
Ai-Rong Li ◽  
Xiang-Yun Yang ◽  
Carol Baskin
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiment ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Seed Dormancy ◽  
Natural Environment ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Soil Seed Bank ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Persistent Soil Seed Bank ◽  
Almost All

AbstractInformation about seed dormancy cycling and germination in relation to temperature and moisture conditions in the natural environment is important for the conservation and restoration of rare species, including Begonia guishanensis and Paraisometrum mileense, two sympatric perennial limestone (karst) species. Dry afterripening (DAR) and wet and dry (WD) cycles at 15/5 and 25/15°C as well as moist chilling (MC) at 15/5°C were used to mimic the natural environment at different times of the year. A field experiment was conducted to monitor seasonal changes in germination responses of the seeds. About 40–65% of B. guishanensis and 5% of P. mileense seeds were dormant at maturity. DAR at 25/15 and 15/5°C as well as MC and WD cycles at 15/5°C alleviated dormancy for B. guishanensis but not P. mileense, and WD cycles at 25/15°C induced a deeper conditional dormancy for both species. Seeds of B. guishanensis exhibited dormancy cycling in the field, with increased dormancy under natural WD cycles at relatively high temperatures during the transition from the dry to the wet season in April to May and decreased dormancy during the wet season from June to October. KNO3 mitigated the dormancy-inducing effect of both artificial and natural WD cycles at relatively high temperatures for B. guishanensis. The field experiment indicated that seeds of B. guishanensis may be able to form a persistent soil seed bank, while almost all seeds of P. mileense germinate at the beginning of the wet season in the field.

scholarly journals Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3275-3291 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ruiz-Ramos ◽  
E. Sánchez ◽  
C. Gallardo ◽  
M. I. Mínguez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Grain Filling ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract. Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Environmental and Societal Impacts of the Category-3 Typhoon Hato

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric C. H. Chow ◽  
Min Wen ◽  
Lei Li ◽  
Marco Y. T. Leung ◽  
Paxson K. Y. Cheung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Astronomical Tide ◽  
Extreme High Temperature

The destructiveness and potential hazards brought to the Pearl River Delta (PRD) by the category-3 typhoon Hato in 2017 have been studied. The results show that wind flow is one of the key parameters influenced by tropical cyclones. The observed wind at Shenzhen station changed from median southwesterly and calm northerly to strong easterly during the evolution of Hato as it approached the PRD and during landfall, respectively. The peak wind intensity at the surface level and a height of 300 m reached over 17 m s−1 and 30 m s−1, respectively. In Zhuhai, the area closest to the landfall location, the situ observation shows that the maximum wind and the maximum gust on 23 August 2017 reached 29.9 m s−1 and over 50 m s−1, respectively, which is a record-breaking intensity compared with the highest recorded intensity during tropical cyclone (TC) activity in Vicente in 2012. The maximum sea level during 23 August 2017, with an added influence from the storm surge and the astronomical tide, was found to be over 3.9 m to the west of Hong Kong. Extreme high temperature was also recorded on 22 August 2017 before the landfall, with 38.4, 38, and 36.9 °C of daily maximum temperature in Shenzhen, Macao, and Hong Kong, respectively. Based on the heat index calculated with the temperature record at Shenzhen’s station, the hot temperature hazard reached “danger” levels. On the other hand, a prominent air quality deterioration was observed on 21 August 2017. The concentrations rapidly increased to 1 time greater than those on the previous day in Hong Kong. The TC-induced sinking motion, continental advection, and less amount of cloud cover were observed before the landfall, and would be the possible factors causing the extreme high temperature and the poor air quality. This case study illustrates that the influences of Hato to the PRD were not only limited to their destructiveness during landfall, but also brought the extreme high temperature and poor air quality.

Non-Structural Cracking Analysis of early Age of Reinforcement Concrete Wall

2012 ◽  
Vol 446-449 ◽  
pp. 251-259
Author(s):  
Ting Yao ◽  
Jian Ye Zhang ◽  
Jia Ping Liu ◽  
Qian Tian
Keyword(s):  
Structural Engineering ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Early Age ◽  
Mass Concrete ◽  
Concrete Wall ◽  
Crack Control ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Real Behavior ◽  
Unique Source ◽  
Source Of Information

Structure monitoring has been increasingly valuable in recent years and has taken a leading role in the field of structural engineering. Date collected by early age monitoring represent a unique source of information for understanding the real behavior. In this paper, the temperatures evolution and concrete deformation evolution are obtained by real-time continuous monitoring of Reinforcement concrete(RC) wall. The result shows that the early age thermal cracking is one of the most important origin of several phenomena that imperil durability and shorten the lifespan of the structure. Though the wall is not considered as mass concrete, and has a big radiating surface, the maximum temperature can even reach up to 52°C due to heat generation of cement and the insulation of formwork, which can lead to shrinkage deformation when the temperature decreases. The measured experimental date can provide useful reference for early crack control and durability of RC concrete structure, and they can also be use to verify and improve the accuracy of the numerical results for RC wall, which is available in the future for basis to similar projects and research.

scholarly journals The dissociation of carbon dioxide at high temperatures

1927 ◽  
Vol 115 (771) ◽  
pp. 318-333 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Initial Pressure ◽  
Simple Relation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Pressure ◽  
Complete Combustion ◽  
Explosion Pressure ◽  
Rich Mixture

The power of an internal combustion engine is greatest when operating with a “rich” mixture, that is to say, with a mixture which contains more fuel than is necessary for complete combustion. Similarly, it is found that if mixtures of carbon monoxide and air in varying proportions are exploded in a closed bomb at constant initial temperature and pressure, the explosion pressure is greatest when the ratio CO/O 2 is greater than 2. These phenomena are known to be connected with the dissociation of carbon dioxide at high temperatures, for if there were no dissociation we should expect the explosion pressure to be greatest when CO/O 2 = 2. No attention appears, however, to have been paid to the position of the maximum. It can be shown in the following way that there is a very simple relation between the composition of the mixture giving maximum pressure on explosion, and the dissociation of carbon dioxide at the maximum explosion temperature. Let the initial composition be represented by the expression 2 (1 + a ) CO + O 2 + b N 2 (Total mols = 3 + 2 a + b ), and let P i , T i represent the initial pressure and temperature; P e the maximum pressure observed after explosion, and T e the corresponding maximum temperature.

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