scholarly journals Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 in Kuwait Using Compartmental and Logistic Regression Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah M. Almeshal ◽  
Abdulla I. Almazrouee ◽  
Mohammad R. Alenizi ◽  
Saleh N. Alhajeri
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
The State ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The State Of Kuwait ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Individual Contact

The state of Kuwait is facing a substantial challenge in responding to the spread of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). The government’s decision to repatriate stranded citizens back to Kuwait from various COVID-19 epicenters has generated a great concern. It has heightened the need for prediction models to estimate the epidemic size. Mathematical modeling plays a pivotal role in predicting the spread of infectious diseases to enable policymakers to implement various health and safety measures to contain the spread. This research presents a forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic size in Kuwait based on the confirmed data. Deterministic and stochastic modeling approaches were used to estimate the size of COVID-19 spread in Kuwait and determine its ending phase. In addition, various simulation scenarios were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical intervention measures, particularly with time-varying infection rates and individual contact numbers. Results indicate that, with data until 19 April 2020 and before the repatriation plan, the estimated reproduction number in Kuwait is 2.2. It also confirms the efficiency of the containment measures of the state of Kuwait to control the spread even after the repatriation plan. The results show that a high contact rate among the population implies that the epidemic peak value is yet to be reached and that more strict intervention measures must be incorporated

scholarly journals A hybrid approach to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic trend

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. e0256971
Author(s):  
Saqib Ali Nawaz ◽  
Jingbing Li ◽  
Uzair Aslam Bhatti ◽  
Sibghat Ullah Bazai ◽  
Asmat Zafar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Tuning Parameters ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Self Protection

Studying the progress and trend of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) transmission mode will help effectively curb its spread. Some commonly used infectious disease prediction models are introduced. The hybrid model is proposed, which overcomes the disadvantages of the logistic model’s inability to predict the number of confirmed diagnoses and the drawbacks of too many tuning parameters of the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model. The realization and superiority of the prediction of the proposed model are proven through experiments. At the same time, the influence of different initial values of the parameters that need to be debugged on the hybrid model is further studied, and the mean error is used to quantify the prediction effect. By forecasting epidemic size and peak time and simulating the effects of public health interventions, this paper aims to clarify the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and recommend operation suggestions to slow down the epidemic. It is suggested that the quick detection of cases, sufficient implementation of quarantine and public self-protection behaviours are critical to slow down the epidemic.

scholarly journals Measures to Protect the Health and Safety of Massachusetts Employees Who Must Work at the Workplace During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 249-253
Author(s):  
Jodi Sugerman-Brozan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
The State ◽  
Occupational Safety And Health ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
Workplace Health ◽  
Safety And Health ◽  
Workplace Health And Safety ◽  
Safety Recommendations ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The Massachusetts Coalition for Occupational Safety and Health (MassCOSH) developed workplace health and safety recommendations for Phase 2 of the Massachusetts plans to reopen the economy as the spread of SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus was reduced in the state. The governor’s plan included minimal measures for workplace health and safety protections during this pandemic. The MassCOSH recommendations are presented in this document.

scholarly journals Infection Density and Epidemic Size of COVID-19 in China outside the Hubei province

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukun Liu ◽  
Jing Qin ◽  
Yan Fan ◽  
Yong Zhou ◽  
Dean A. Follmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Calculation Algorithm ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The World ◽  
Infection Density ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Almost All

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread to almost all countries in the world, claiming more than 160,000 lives and sickening more than 2,400,000 people by April 21, 2020. There has been research showing that on average, each infected person spreads the infection to more than two persons. Therefore the majority of the population is at risk of infection if no intervention measures were undertaken. The true size of the COVID-19 epidemic remains unknown, as a significant proportion of infected individuals only exhibit mild symptoms or are even asymptomatic. A timely assessment of the evolving epidemic size is crucial for resource allocation and triage decisions. In this article, we modify the back-calculation algorithm to obtain a lower bound estimate of the number of COVID-19 infected persons in China outside the Hubei province. We estimate the infection density among infected and show that the drastic control measures enforced throughout China following the lockdown of Wuhan City effectively slowed down the spread of the disease in two weeks. Our findings from China are expected to provide guidelines and enlightenment for surveillance and control activities of COVID-19 in other countries around the world.

Termination of Skilled Nursing Facility Medicaid Provider Agreements: Procedural Due Process Requirements

1981 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-493
Author(s):  
Nancy Elizabeth Jones
Keyword(s):  
Due Process ◽  
Skilled Nursing Facility ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
The State ◽  
Federal Regulations ◽  
Nursing Facility ◽  
Skilled Nursing ◽  
Medicaid Reimbursement ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Procedural Due Process

AbstractWhen a state Medicaid agency terminates its provider agreement with a skilled nursing facility, federal regulations give the state the option of providing a pretermination evidentiary hearing; they do not, however, require that a state provide such a hearing. If a state chooses not to grant a pretermination hearing, as a number of states have done, federal regulations require: (1) an informal written reconsideration made by the state and submitted to the skilled nursing facility before the effective date of the termination, and (2) a posttermination evidentiary hearing.This Article argues that a skilled nursing facility has a right under the due process clauses of the fifth and fourteenth amendments of the U. S. Constitution to an evidentiary hearing before termination of its Medicaid provider agreement. The author claims that a skilled nursing facility's interest in continued receipt of Medicaid reimbursement under its provider agreement is a property interest entitled to constitutional due process protections, and not merely an expectation of economic benefit that does not implicate constitutional due process considerations.The Article concludes that, except in emergency situations, state Medicaid agencies are constitutionally required to grant a provider a pretermination, rather than a posttermination, evidentiary hearing. This procedure would protect the provider and its patients from the severe effects of an erroneous termination, while furthering the governmental interest in ensuring the health and safety of skilled nursing facility patients. The format for such a hearing should allow for the participation, with the assistance of counsel, of both the skilled nursing facility and its patients.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Modeling Technique of Epidemic Outbreaks with Application to COVID-19 Dynamics in West Africa

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 365
Author(s):  
Chénangnon Frédéric Tovissodé ◽  
Jonas Têlé Doumatè ◽  
Romain Glèlè Kakaï
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Latency Period ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Exponential Growth Phase ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Reporting Data

The widely used logistic model for epidemic case reporting data may be either restrictive or unrealistic in presence of containment measures when implemented after an epidemic outbreak. For flexibility in epidemic case reporting data modeling, we combined an exponential growth curve for the early epidemic phase with a flexible growth curve to account for the potential change in growth pattern after implementation of containment measures. We also fitted logistic regression models to recoveries and deaths from the confirmed positive cases. In addition, the growth curves were integrated into a SIQR (Susceptible, Infective, Quarantined, Recovered) model framework to provide an overview on the modeled epidemic wave. We focused on the estimation of: (1) the delay between the appearance of the first infectious case in the population and the outbreak (“epidemic latency period”); (2) the duration of the exponential growth phase; (3) the basic and the time-varying reproduction numbers; and (4) the peaks (time and size) in confirmed positive cases, active cases and new infections. The application of this approach to COVID-19 data from West Africa allowed discussion on the effectiveness of some containment measures implemented across the region.

scholarly journals Depressive Symptoms in Swiss University Students during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Correlates

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Volken ◽  
Annina Zysset ◽  
Simone Amendola ◽  
Anthony Klein Swormink ◽  
Marion Huber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
University Students ◽  
Mental Health Problems ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
National Population ◽  
Student Cohorts ◽  
Containment Measures

Background: COVID-19 containment measures and the uncertainties associated with the pandemic may have contributed to changes in mental health risks and mental health problems in university students. Due to the high burden of the disease, depression is of particular concern. However, knowledge about the prevalence of depressive symptoms in Swiss university students during the pandemic is limited. We therefore assessed the prevalence of depressive symptoms and their change during the COVID-19 pandemic in a large sample of Swiss university students. Methods: We assessed depressive symptoms in two cross-sectional cohorts of university students (n = 3571) in spring and autumn 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and compared them with a matched sample of the Swiss national population (n = 2328). Binary logistic regression models estimated prevalence with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: Adjusted prevalence of depressive symptoms in female (30.8% (95% CI: 28.6–33.0)) and male students (24.8% (95% CI: 21.7–28.1)) was substantially higher than in the matching female (10.9% (95% CI: 8.9–13.2)) and male (8.5% (6.6–11.0)) pre-pandemic national population. Depressive symptoms in the two consecutive student cohorts did not significantly differ. Conclusions: More than a quarter of Swiss university students reported depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was substantially higher as compared to the matched general population. Universities should introduce measures to support students in such times of crisis and gain an understanding of the factors impacting mental health positively or negatively and related to university structures and procedures.

scholarly journals Reconceptualizing multisectoral prison regulation: Voluntary organizations and bereaved families as regulators

2021 ◽  
pp. 136248062198926
Author(s):  
Philippa Tomczak
Keyword(s):  
Health And Safety ◽  
The State ◽  
Voluntary Organizations ◽  
Stakeholder Groups ◽  
Prison Health ◽  
Qualitative Changes

Prison health, prisoner safety and imprisonment rates matter: intrinsically and for health and safety outside. Existing prison regulation apparatuses (e.g. OPCAT) are extensive and hold unrealized potential to shape imprisonment. However, criminologists have not yet engaged much with this potential. In this article, I reconceptualize prison regulation by exploring the work of a broad range of multisectoral regulators who operate across stakeholder groups. I illustrate that voluntary organizations and families bereaved by prison suicide act as regulators, although their substantive actions have been erased from official narratives. Mobilizing (threats of) litigation, these actors have responsibilized the state and brought qualitative changes across the prison estate.

scholarly journals Air Quality Assessment in the State of Kuwait during 2012 to 2017

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 678
Author(s):  
Adeeba Al-Hurban ◽  
Sawsan Khader ◽  
Ahmad Alsaber ◽  
Jiazhu Pan
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
The State ◽  
Ambient Air Pollution ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Industrial Areas ◽  
The State Of Kuwait

This study aimed to examine the trend of ambient air pollution (i.e., ozone (O3), nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), benzene (C6H6) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 microns (PM10), and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) at 10 monitoring stations located in the main residential and industrial areas in the State of Kuwait over 6 years (2012–2017). We found that the SO2 level in industrial areas (0.065 ppm) exceeded the allowable range of SO2 in residential areas (0.030 ppm). Air pollution variables were defined by the Environmental Public Authority of Kuwait (K-EPA). In this study, integrated statistical analysis was performed to compare an established air pollution database to Kuwait Ambient Air Quality Guidelines and to determine the association between pollutants and meteorological factors. All pollutants were positively correlated, with the exception of most pollutants and PM10 and O3. Meteorological factors, i.e., the ambient temperature, wind speed and humidity, were also significantly associated with the above pollutants. Spatial distribution mapping indicated that the PM10 level remained high during the southwest monsoon (the hot and dry season), while the CO level was high during the northeast monsoon (the wet season). The NO2 and O3 levels were high during the first intermonsoon season.

scholarly journals The Epidemiology and Predictors of Outcomes Among Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in a Large Community Healthcare System in South Florida

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shenae Samuels ◽  
Jianli Niu ◽  
Candice Sareli ◽  
Paula Eckardt
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare System ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Community Healthcare ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Large Community ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Predictors Of Outcomes ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major public health concern. The aim of this study was to describe the presenting characteristics, epidemiology and predictors of outcomes among confirmed COVID-19 cases seen at a large community healthcare system which serves the epicenter and diverse region of Florida. We conducted a retrospective analysis of individuals with lab-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who were seen, from March 2, 2020 to May 31, 2020, at Memorial Healthcare System in South Florida. Data was extracted from a COVID-19 registry of patients with lab-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Univariate and backward stepwise multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of key study outcomes. There were a total of 1692 confirmed COVID-19 patients included in this study. Increasing age was found to be a significant predictor of hospitalization, 30-day readmission and death. Having a temperature of 38 °C or more and increasing comorbidity score were also associated with an increased risk of hospitalization. Significant predictors of ICU admission included having a saturated oxygen level less than 90%, hypertension, dementia, rheumatologic disease, having a respiratory rate greater than 24 breaths per minute. Being of Hispanic ethnicity and immunosuppressant utilization greatly increased the risk of 30-day readmission. Having an oxygen saturation less than 90% and an underlying neurological disorder were associated with an increased likelihood of death. Results show that a patient’s demographic, underlying condition and vitals at triage may increase or reduce their risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, 30-day readmission or death.

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