scholarly journals A Comparative Study on Distancing, Mask and Vaccine Adoption Rates from Global Twitter Trends

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 488
Author(s):  
Satyaki Roy ◽  
Preetam Ghosh

COVID-19 is a global health emergency that has fundamentally altered human life. Public perception about COVID-19 greatly informs public policymaking and charts the course of present and future mitigation strategies. Existing approaches to gain insights into the evolving nature of public opinion has led to the application of natural language processing on public interaction data acquired from online surveys and social media. In this work, we apply supervised and unsupervised machine learning approaches on global Twitter data to learn the opinions about adoption of mitigation strategies such as social distancing, masks, and vaccination, as well as the effect of socioeconomic, demographic, political, and epidemiological features on perceptions. Our study reveals the uniform polarity in public sentiment on the basis of spatial proximity or COVID-19 infection rates. We show the reservation about the adoption of social distancing and vaccination across the world and also quantify the influence of airport traffic, homelessness, followed by old age and race on sentiment of netizens within the US.

Author(s):  
Andrzej Jarynowski ◽  
Monika Wójta-Kempa ◽  
Vitaly Belik

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTIONDue to the spread of SARS CoV-2 virus responsible for COVID-19 disease, there is an urgent need to analyse COVID-2019 epidemic perception in Poland. This study aims to investigate social perception of coronavirus in the Internet media during the epidemic. It is a signal report highlighting the main issues in public perception and medical commutation in real time.METHODSWe study the perception of COVID-2019 epidemic in Polish society using quantitative analysis of its digital footprints on the Internet on platforms: Google, Twitter, YouTube, Wikipedia and electronic media represented by Event Registry, from January 2020 to 29.04.2020 (before and after official introduction to Poland on 04.03.20). We present trend analysis with a support of natural language processing techniques.RESULTSWe identified seven temporal major clusters of interest on the topic COVID-2019: 1) Chinese, 2) Italian, 3) Waiting, 4) Mitigations, 5) Social distancing and Lockdown, 6) Anti-crisis shield, 7) Restrictions releasing. There was an exponential increase of interest when the Polish government “declared war against disease” around 11/12.03.20 with a massive mitigation program. Later on, there was a decay in interest with additional phases related to social distancing and an anti-crisis legislation act with local peaks. We have found that declarations of mitigation strategies by the Polish prime minister or the minister of health gathered the highest attention of Internet users. So enacted or in force events do not affect interest to such extent. Traditional news agencies were ahead of social media (mainly Twitter) in dissemination of information. We have observed very weak or even negative correlations between a colloquial searching term ‘antiviral mask’ in Google, encyclopaedic definition in Wikipedia “SARS-CoV-2” as well official incidence series, implying different mechanisms governing the search for knowledge, panic related behaviour and actual risk of acquiring infection.CONCLUSIONSTraditional and social media do not only reflect reality, but also create it. Risk perception in Poland is unrelated to actual physical risk of acquiring COVID-19. As traditional media are ahead of social media in time, we advise to choose traditional news media for a quick dissemination of information, however for a greater impact, social media should be used. Otherwise public information campaigns might have less impact on society than expected.


Author(s):  
Andrzej Jarynowski ◽  
Monika Wojta-Kempa ◽  
Vitaly Belik

Introduction: Due to the spread of SARS CoV-2 virus responsible for COVID-19 disease, there is an urgent need to analyse COVID-19 epidemic perception in Poland. This study aims to investigate social perception of coronavirus in the Internet media during the epidemic. It is a signal report highlighting the main issues in public perception and medical commutation in real time. Methods: We study the perception of COVID-19 epidemic in Polish society using quantitative analysis of its digital footprints on the Internet on platforms: Google, Twitter, YouTube, Wikipedia and electronic media represented by Event Registry, from January 2020 to 29.04.2020 (before and after official introduction to Poland on 04.03.20). We present trend analysis with a support of natural language processing techniques. Results: We identified seven temporal major clusters of interest on the topic COVID-19: 1) Chinese, 2) Italian, 3) Waiting, 4) Mitigations, 5) Social distancing and Lockdown, 6) Anti-crisis shield, 7) Restrictions releasing. There was an exponential increase of interest when the Polish government “declared war against disease” around 11/12.03.20 with a massive mitigation program. Later on, there was a decay in interest with additional phases related to social distancing and an anti-crisis legislation act with local peaks. We have found that declarations of mitigation strategies by the Polish prime minister or the minister of health gathered the highest attention of Internet users. So enacted or in force events do not affect interest to such extent. Traditional news agencies were ahead of social media (mainly Twitter) in dissemination of information. We have observed very weak or even negative correlations between a colloquial searching term 'antiviral mask' in Google, encyclopaedic definition in Wikipedia “SARS-CoV-2” as well official incidence series, implying different mechanisms governing the search for knowledge, panic related behaviour and actual risk of acquiring infection. Conclusions: Traditional and social media do not only reflect reality, but also create it. Risk perception in Poland is unrelated to actual physical risk of acquiring COVID-19. As traditional media are ahead of social media in time, we advise to choose traditional news media for a quick dissemination of information, however for a greater impact, social media should be used. Otherwise public information campaigns might have less impact on society than expected.


Author(s):  
Sameh N. Saleh ◽  
Christoph U. Lehmann ◽  
Samuel A. McDonald ◽  
Mujeeb A. Basit ◽  
Richard J. Medford

Abstract Objective: Social distancing policies are key in curtailing severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread, but their effectiveness is heavily contingent on public understanding and collective adherence. We studied public perception of social distancing through organic, large-scale discussion on Twitter. Design: Retrospective cross-sectional study. Methods: Between March 27 and April 10, 2020, we retrieved English-only tweets matching two trending social distancing hashtags, #socialdistancing and #stayathome. We analyzed the tweets using natural language processing and machine-learning models, and we conducted a sentiment analysis to identify emotions and polarity. We evaluated the subjectivity of tweets and estimated the frequency of discussion of social distancing rules. We then identified clusters of discussion using topic modeling and associated sentiments. Results: We studied a sample of 574,903 tweets. For both hashtags, polarity was positive (mean, 0.148; SD, 0.290); only 15% of tweets had negative polarity. Tweets were more likely to be objective (median, 0.40; IQR, 0–0.6) with ~30% of tweets labeled as completely objective (labeled as 0 in range from 0 to 1). Approximately half of tweets (50.4%) primarily expressed joy and one-fifth expressed fear and surprise. Each correlated well with topic clusters identified by frequency including leisure and community support (ie, joy), concerns about food insecurity and quarantine effects (ie, fear), and unpredictability of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its implications (ie, surprise). Conclusions: Considering the positive sentiment, preponderance of objective tweets, and topics supporting coping mechanisms, we concluded that Twitter users generally supported social distancing in the early stages of their implementation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S309-S309
Author(s):  
Sameh N Saleh ◽  
Christoph Lehmann ◽  
Samuel McDonald ◽  
Mujeeb Basit ◽  
Richard J Medford

Abstract Background Managing and changing public opinion and behavior are vital for social distancing to successfully slow transmission of COVID-19, preserve hospital resources, and prevent overwhelming the healthcare system’s resources. We sought to leveraging organic, large-scale discussion on Twitter about social distancing to understand public’s beliefs and opinions on this policy. Methods Between March 27 and April 10, 2020, we sampled 574,903 English tweets that matched the two most trending social distancing hashtags at the time, #socialdistancing and #stayathome. We used natural language processing techniques to conduct a sentiment analysis that identifies tweet polarity and emotions. We also evaluated the subjectivity of tweets and estimated the frequency of discussion of social distancing rules. We then identified clusters of discussion using topic modeling and compared the sentiment by topic. Results There was net positive sentiment toward both #socialdistancing and #stayathome with mean sentiment scores of 0.150 (standard deviation [SD], 0.292) and 0.144 (SD, 0.287) respectively. Tweets were also more likely to be objective (median, 0.40; IQR, 0 to 0.6) with approximately 30% of all tweets labeled as completely objective. Approximately half (50.4%) of all tweets primarily expressed joy and one-fifth expressed fear and surprise each (Figure 1). These trends correlated well with topic clusters identified by frequency including leisure activities and community support (i.e., joy), concerns about food insecurity and effects of the quarantine (i.e., fear), and unpredictability of COVID and its unforeseen implications (i.e., surprise) (Table 1). Table 1. Topic clusters identified by topic modeling. Words contributing to the model are shown in decreasing order of weighting. The topics are labeled manually based on these words. The number of tweets primarily with that topic, mean sentiment, mean subjectivity, and sample tweets are also included. Figure 1. Emotion analysis for all tweets and stratified by tweets with the hashtag #socialdistancing and #stayathome. Comparison between the two hashtags is done using Chi-squared testing. Bonferroni correction was used to define statistical significance at a threshold of p = 0.008 (0.05/n, where n = 6 since 6 comparisons were completed). Conclusion The positive sentiment, preponderance of objective tweets, and topics supporting coping mechanisms led us to believe that Twitter users generally supported social distancing measures in the early stages of their implementation. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Jarynowski ◽  
Monika Wójta-Kempa ◽  
Vitaly Belik

INTRODUCTION: Due to the spread of SARS CoV-2 virus responsible for COVID-19 disease, there is an urgent need to analyse COVID-2019 epidemic perception in Poland. This would enable authorities for preparation of specific actions minimizing public health and economic risks. This study aims to illustrate the media exposure of the social perception of coronavirus using the means available during the epidemic and our goal is to signal the main issues in public perception and medical commutation in real time.METHODS: We study the perception of COVID-2019 epidemic in Polish society using quantitative analysis of its digital footprints on the Internet (on mainly Google and supported by Twitter, YouTube, Wikipedia and electronic media represented by Event Registry) from January 2020 to 07.04.2020 (before and after official introduction to Poland on 04.03.2020). To this end we utilize trend analysis with a support of simple natural language processing techniques. Each examined internet platform was analysed representativeness and composition of the target group too.RESULTS: We identified three temporal major clusters of interest before disease introduction on the topic COVID-2019: China- and Italy-related peaks on all platforms, as well as a peak on social media related to the recent special law on combating COVID-2019. Besides, there was a peak in interest on the day of officially confirmed introduction as well as an exponential increase of interest when the Polish government “declared war against disease” around 11/12.03.2020 with a massive mitigation program. Later on, there is a decay in interest with additional phases: social distancing and anticrisis act with local peaks. From a sociolinguistic perspective, we found that concepts and issues of threat, fear and prevention prevailed before introduction. After introduction, practical concepts about disease and epidemic dominate. We have found out that declarations of mitigation strategies by Polish Prime Minister or Minister of Health gather high attention on Internet users. So enacted or in force events do not affect interest in such an extent. We have observed very low correlation between colloquial searching term 'antiviral mask' in Wikipedia and encyclopaedic definition at Wikipedia “SARS-CoV-2”, which suggest that there are different mechanisms for searching for knowledge against panic related behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional and social media do not only reflect reality, but also create it. As traditional media ahead social media in time, we advise to choose news for a quick dissemination of information, however for a greater impact, social media should be used. Otherwise public information campaigns might have less impact on society than expected. For greater penetration, it might be necessary to diversify information channels to reach as many people as possible.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Jaeger ◽  
Simone Fulle ◽  
Samo Turk

Inspired by natural language processing techniques we here introduce Mol2vec which is an unsupervised machine learning approach to learn vector representations of molecular substructures. Similarly, to the Word2vec models where vectors of closely related words are in close proximity in the vector space, Mol2vec learns vector representations of molecular substructures that are pointing in similar directions for chemically related substructures. Compounds can finally be encoded as vectors by summing up vectors of the individual substructures and, for instance, feed into supervised machine learning approaches to predict compound properties. The underlying substructure vector embeddings are obtained by training an unsupervised machine learning approach on a so-called corpus of compounds that consists of all available chemical matter. The resulting Mol2vec model is pre-trained once, yields dense vector representations and overcomes drawbacks of common compound feature representations such as sparseness and bit collisions. The prediction capabilities are demonstrated on several compound property and bioactivity data sets and compared with results obtained for Morgan fingerprints as reference compound representation. Mol2vec can be easily combined with ProtVec, which employs the same Word2vec concept on protein sequences, resulting in a proteochemometric approach that is alignment independent and can be thus also easily used for proteins with low sequence similarities.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Karagiannakis

This paper deals with state of the art risk and resilience calculations for industrial plants. Resilience is a top priority issue on the agenda of societies due to climate change and the all-time demand for human life safety and financial robustness. Industrial plants are highly complex systems containing a considerable number of equipment such as steel storage tanks, pipe rack-piping systems, and other installations. Loss Of Containment (LOC) scenarios triggered by past earthquakes due to failure on critical components were followed by severe repercussions on the community, long recovery times and great economic losses. Hence, facility planners and emergency managers should be aware of possible seismic damages and should have already established recovery plans to maximize the resilience and minimize the losses. Seismic risk assessment is the first step of resilience calculations, as it establishes possible damage scenarios. In order to have an accurate risk analysis, the plant equipment vulnerability must be assessed; this is made feasible either from fragility databases in the literature that refer to customized equipment or through numerical calculations. Two different approaches to fragility assessment will be discussed in this paper: (i) code-based Fragility Curves (FCs); and (ii) fragility curves based on numerical models. A carbon black process plant is used as a case study in order to display the influence of various fragility curve realizations taking their effects on risk and resilience calculations into account. Additionally, a new way of representing the total resilience of industrial installations is proposed. More precisely, all possible scenarios will be endowed with their weighted recovery curves (according to their probability of occurrence) and summed together. The result is a concise graph that can help stakeholders to identify critical plant equipment and make decisions on seismic mitigation strategies for plant safety and efficiency. Finally, possible mitigation strategies, like structural health monitoring and metamaterial-based seismic shields are addressed, in order to show how future developments may enhance plant resilience. The work presented hereafter represents a highly condensed application of the research done during the XP-RESILIENCE project, while more detailed information is available on the project website https://r.unitn.it/en/dicam/xp-resilience.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanmo Li ◽  
Mengyang Gu

AbstractThe COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by $$5\%$$ 5 % of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around $$39\%$$ 39 % (or 78 K, $$95\%$$ 95 % CI: [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corentin Cot ◽  
Giacomo Cacciapaglia ◽  
Francesco Sannino

AbstractWe employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of enacted social distancing via Google and Apple data, independently from the political decisions. Our analysis allows us to classify different shades of social distancing measures for the first wave of the pandemic. We observe a strong decrease in the infection rate occurring two to five weeks after the onset of mobility reduction. A universal time scale emerges, after which social distancing shows its impact. We further provide an actual measure of the impact of social distancing for each region, showing that the effect amounts to a reduction by 20–40% in the infection rate in Europe and 30–70% in the US.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Almeida ◽  
T. N. Vilches ◽  
C. P. Ferreira ◽  
C. M. C. B. Fortaleza

AbstractIn 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.


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