Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in Korea: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination has recently started worldwide. As the vaccine supply will be limited for a considerable period of time in many countries, it is important to devise the effective vaccination strategies that reduce the number of deaths and incidence of infection. One of the characteristics of COVID-19 is that the symptom, severity, and mortality of the disease differ by age. Thus, when the vaccination supply is limited, age-dependent vaccination priority strategy should be implemented to minimize the incidences and mortalities. In this study, we developed an age-structured model for describing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, including vaccination. Using the model and actual epidemiological data in Korea, we estimated the infection probability for each age group under different levels of social distancing implemented in Korea and investigated the effective age-dependent vaccination strategies to reduce the confirmed cases and fatalities of COVID-19. We found that, in a lower level of social distancing, vaccination priority for the age groups with the highest transmission rates will reduce the incidence mostly, but, in higher levels of social distancing, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly age group reduces the infection incidences more effectively. To reduce mortalities, vaccination priority for the elderly age group is the best strategy in all scenarios of levels of social distancing. Furthermore, we investigated the effect of vaccine supply and efficacy on the reduction in incidence and mortality.

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Assessment of Social Distancing for Controlling COVID-19 in Korea: An Age-Structured Modeling Approach

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17207474 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (20) ◽

pp. 7474

Author(s):

Yongin Choi ◽

James Slghee Kim ◽

Heejin Choi ◽

Hyojung Lee ◽

Chang Hyeong Lee

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Age Groups ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

The Elderly ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Social Distancing ◽

First Case ◽

Age Structured ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics ◽

The Impact

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred all over the world between 2019 and 2020. The first case of COVID-19 was reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. Since then, there have been more than 21 million incidences and 761 thousand casualties worldwide as of 16 August 2020. One of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 is that its symptoms and fatality rates vary with the ages of the infected individuals. This study aims at assessing the impact of social distancing on the reduction of COVID-19 infected cases by constructing a mathematical model and using epidemiological data of incidences in Korea. We developed an age-structured mathematical model for describing the age-dependent dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in Korea. We estimated the model parameters and computed the reproduction number using the actual epidemiological data reported from 1 February to 15 June 2020. We then divided the data into seven distinct periods depending on the intensity of social distancing implemented by the Korean government. By using a contact matrix to describe the contact patterns between ages, we investigated the potential effect of social distancing under various scenarios. We discovered that when the intensity of social distancing is reduced, the number of COVID-19 cases increases; the number of incidences among the age groups of people 60 and above increases significantly more than that of the age groups below the age of 60. This significant increase among the elderly groups poses a severe threat to public health because the incidence of severe cases and fatality rates of the elderly group are much higher than those of the younger groups. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain strict social distancing rules to reduce infected cases.

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Underlying Factors for the Rapid Increase of Suicide in Mie Prefecture, Japan

Medicine Science and the Law ◽

10.1258/rsmmsl.45.4.345 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 45 (4) ◽

pp. 345-355 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Ken Inoue ◽

Shuntaro Abe ◽

Yuji Okazaki ◽

Tatsushige Fukunaga

Keyword(s):

Psychiatric Disorders ◽

Age Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Age Group ◽

Elderly Age ◽

Medical Treatments ◽

Economic Problems ◽

Causative Factors ◽

Younger Generation

The number of suicides in Japan increased from about 22,000 per year during the period 1988 to 1997 to over 30,000 since 1998. The number of suicides has also been increasing in Mie Prefecture. In the present study we examined the incidence and the circumstances for all suicidal cases during the seven-year period, 1996-2002, that were reported to Mie Prefectural Police Headquarters. In Mie Prefecture, the number of suicides per year averaged 421 cases: from a minimum of 319 in 1997 to a maximum of 501 in 1998. The most frequent month for suicides was July, while the lowest number occurred in February. Suicide was most common in the 50-59 year age group in men, and in the 70-79 year group in women. Regarding the means of suicide, hanging was the most frequent (61.6%) in both sexes. Psychiatric disorders were the most serious causative factors in all generations, accounting for 23.8% in general but being especially prevalent in the younger generation of people under 39 years. Further reasons for suicide were economic problems for the 40-64 age-group in men and suffering from illness for the elderly age-groups in both sexes. In order to prevent suicide, urgent strategies for effective medical treatments and improved working circumstances are required.

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ASSESSING VACCINATION STRATEGIES FOR THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC IN MINAS GERAIS (BRAZIL)

10.1101/2021.04.19.21255731 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marcelo Marchesin ◽

Mehran Sabeti

Keyword(s):

Age Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Minas Gerais ◽

Elderly Group ◽

Age Group ◽

Seir Model ◽

Current Strategy ◽

Vaccination Strategies ◽

Brazilian State ◽

Age Structured

AbstractIn this work we analyze the effectiveness of vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Firstly we study the effectiveness of general vaccination in the decreasing of the number of infected individuals using a traditional non structured SEIR model. Secondly we consider an age-structured SEIR model with 3 age groups (youngster, adult and elderly) and we analyze the current strategy in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, of focusing the vaccination on the elderly group. We conclude by showing this strategy to be mistaken and that a vaccination focusing on the age group of the adults would be much more efficient in decreasing the total number of infected individuals.

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Clinico pathological study of cervical lymphadenopathy

International Journal of Otorhinolaryngology and Head and Neck Surgery ◽

10.18203/issn.2454-5929.ijohns20170452 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 244

Author(s):

Renuka S. Melkundi ◽

Sateesh Melkundi

Keyword(s):

Clinical Evaluation ◽

Low Socioeconomic Status ◽

Age Groups ◽

Cervical Lymphadenopathy ◽

The Elderly ◽

Needle Aspiration ◽

Age Group ◽

Cervical Lymphadenitis ◽

Elderly Age ◽

Diagnostic Efficacy

Background: This study was carried out with a broad objective of assessing relative diagnostic efficacy of the clinical evaluation, fine needle aspiration biopsy and open biopsy. The objective was to study the confirmatory diagnosis of the underlying pathological variants, the incidence of the malignancies, presenting with cervical lymphadenitis and also to diagnose various etiologies of cervical lymphadenitis in all age groups.Methods: Patients attending the ENT and surgery OPD of BTGH and General hospital, Gulbarga, of all age groups and both genders having the neck swelling for more than three weeks were subjected for the study.Results: This study has shown that the incidence of tubercular lymphadenitis is more in the age group of 1st and 2nd decade and in low socioeconomic status while secondaries are more common in the elderly age group. Conclusions: From this study it can be concluded that in cervical lymphadenopathy clinical evaluation followed by FNAC is most reliable diagnostic tool, which is easy to perform, cost effective, speedy results can be obtained and accurate. The main requirement for this is the specialist input.

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Burden of COVID-19 and Vaccination Coverage in the Italian Population as of October 2021

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph19010496 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

pp. 496

Author(s):

Emma Altobelli ◽

Francesca Marzi ◽

Anna Maria Angelone ◽

Riccardo Mazzocca ◽

Marianna Mastrodomenico ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Vaccination Coverage ◽

Vaccination Campaign ◽

Age Groups ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

European Countries ◽

Italian Population ◽

Age Group ◽

Mortality Trend ◽

Research Activity ◽

Incidence And Mortality

Following the pandemic scenario, researchers from all over the world, including Italians, have undertaken fervent research activity using the epidemiological data available on the sites of government and national and international research institutes. The objectives of our study were: (1) to analyze the load and trend of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, from the beginning to October 2021; (2) to analyze vaccination coverage by age groups and types of vaccines administered and check how the vaccination campaign has influenced the course of the disease and deaths; (3) to evaluate the Italian situation in the European context, comparing the incidence and mortality of Italy with respect to European countries; (4) finally, to evaluate how much vaccination coverage may have had an effect on mortality in the various European countries. Databases were structured to archive Italian and European COVID-19 data provided by Our World in Data, and data came from the Ministry of Health, to evaluate percentage of vaccines administered. The monthly trend of the cumulative incidence per 100,000 inhabitants in the period January 2020–October 2021 was evaluated. It is important to underline 3 peaks of incidence and mortality rates that occurred during the three waves of COVID-19: March–April–May 2020, October–November–December 2020, and March–April–May 2021. There is a slight increase in incidence in August 2021 and in mortality in September 2021. The three mortality rate peaks, related to the three waves of COVID-19, are always higher in Italy than in Europe, particularly in April 2020, December 2020, and March 2021. From May 2021 to October 2021, the mortality trend reversed, and it turned out to be higher in Europe than in Italy. Regarding vaccination, Italy currently has an important coverage, not only in the most fragile population, where it exceeds 90%, but also in the 12–19 age group, with percentages above 65%. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was used widely in all age groups (first and second dose), with highest administration in 12–19 age groups and 80+, while the lowest was recorded in the 70–79 age group. In conclusion, these data confirm the importance of vaccination in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Trends of Stomach Cancer in Central Serbia

Medicina ◽

10.3390/medicina57070665 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 57 (7) ◽

pp. 665

Author(s):

Miodrag M. Stojanovic ◽

Natasa K. Rancic ◽

Marija R. Andjelkovic Apostolovic ◽

Aleksandra M. Ignjatovic ◽

Mirko V. Ilic

Keyword(s):

Stomach Cancer ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Age Groups ◽

Optimal Number ◽

P Value ◽

Age Group ◽

Joinpoint Regression ◽

Mortality Trends ◽

Incidence Trend ◽

Incidence And Mortality

Somach cancer is the third most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The objective of the paper was to analyze the incidence and mortality trends of stomach cancer in Central Serbia in the period between 1999–2017. Materials and Methods: trends and annual percentage change (APC) of the incidence and mortality rate with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by joinpoint regression analyses. The optimal number of Joinpoints was identified using the Monte Carlo permutation method. The trend was considered to be significantly increasing (positive change) or decreasing (negative change) when the p-value was below 0.05 (p < 0.05). Results: the total number of new cases was 16,914 (10,873 males and 6041 females) and the total number of mortality cases was 14,790 (9348 in and 5442 in females). Almost one third (30.8%) of new cases were registered in the 60–69-year age group, and new cases were significantly more frequent in males than in females (30.8% vs. 29.02%, p < 0.001). Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decrease of incidence trend in females during the 2000–2015 period with APC of −2.13% (95% CI: −3.8 to −0.5, p < 0.001). An insignificant decrease in incidence trend was in males with APC of −0.72% (95% CI: −2.3 to 0.9, p = 0.30). According to the joinpoint analysis, a significant decrease of mortality trends both in males during 2000–2015 with APC of −2.21% (95% CI: −1.6 to −7.5, p ≤ 0.001 and in females, during the same period, with APC of −1.75% (95% CI: −2.9 to −0.6, p < 0.001) was registered. From 2015 to 2017, a significant increase of mortality was registered with APC of 44.5% (95% CI: from 24.2 to −68.1, p ≤ 0.001) in females and in males with APC of 53.15% (95% CI: 13.5 to −106.6, p ≤ 0.001). Conclusion: a significant decrease of stomach cancer incidence trend in females and insignificant decrease of incidence trend in males were determined in Central Serbia. Based on presented results, the mortality trend decreased significantly both in males and in females during 2000–2015, and from 2015 to 2017 we recorded a significant increase in mortality in both sexes. We found significantly more new cases in women than in men in the age group of 40–49, and the mortality of stomach cancer was significantly more frequent among females compared to males in the age groups 30–39, as well as in the 50–59 age group. There is a need for improving recording and registration of new cases of stomach cancer, especially in females. Urgent primary and secondary preventive measures are needed—introducing stomach cancer screening and early detection of premalignant changes. Urgent primary and secondary preventive measures are needed.

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Hip fractures among the elderly in Kyoto, Japan: a 10-year study

Archives of Osteoporosis ◽

10.1007/s11657-021-00888-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Maki Asada ◽

Motoyuki Horii ◽

Kazuya Ikoma ◽

Tsuyoshi Goto ◽

Naoki Okubo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hip Fracture ◽

Femoral Neck ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Acute Care ◽

Hip Fractures ◽

Age Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Femoral Neck Fractures ◽

Age Group ◽

Trochanteric Fractures

Abstract Summary In Kyoto Prefecture, Japan, the number of hip fractures increased during 2013–2017 compared to 2008–2012. However, the estimated overall incidence rate increased only in femoral neck fractures in men aged ≥75 and women aged ≥85. Purpose The incidence rate of hip fractures in Japan has plateaued or decreased. We investigated the annual hip fracture occurrences in Kyoto Prefecture, Japan, from 2008 to 2017. Methods Patients aged 65 years and above who sustained hip fractures between 2008 and 2017 and were treated at one of the participating 11 hospitals were included. The total number of beds in these institutions was 3701, accounting for 21.5% of the 17,242 acute-care beds in Kyoto Prefecture. The change in incidence rate was estimated utilizing the population according to the national census conducted in 2010 and 2015. Results The total number of hip fractures was 10,060, with 47.5% femoral neck fractures and 52.5% trochanteric fractures. A decrease in number was seen only in trochanteric fractures in the group of 75- to 84-year-old women. The population-adjusted numbers of femoral neck fractures showed a significant increase in all age groups in men, whereas in women, there was an increase in femoral neck fractures in the ≥85 group and trochanteric fractures in the age group 65–74, and a decrease in trochanteric fractures in the age group 75–84. The estimated change in incidence rate showed an increase in femoral neck fractures in men aged ≥75 and women aged ≥85. Conclusion In Kyoto Prefecture, the number of hip fractures increased in the second half of the study period (2013–2017) compared to the first half (2008–2012). However, the incidence rate had not increased, except in femoral neck fractures in men aged ≥75 and women aged ≥85.

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Abstract P614: Effect Sizes of Vascular Risk Factors for Stroke Occurrence by Age Among West Africans

Stroke ◽

10.1161/str.52.suppl_1.p614 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Mayowa Owolabi ◽

FRED S SARFO ◽

Onoja Akpa ◽

Joshua Akinyemi ◽

Albert Akpalu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Middle Age ◽

Meat Consumption ◽

The Elderly ◽

Vascular Risk Factors ◽

Effect Sizes ◽

Modifiable Risk Factors ◽

Age Group ◽

Vascular Risk ◽

Elderly Age

Background: Age is a non-modifiable risk factor for stroke occurrence due its influence on vascular risk factor acquisition. In sub-Saharan Africa, the effect sizes of vascular risk factors for stroke occurrence by age is unknown. Objective: To quantify the magnitude and direction of the effect sizes of key modifiable risk factors of stroke according to three age groups: <50years(young), 50-65 years(middle age) and >65 years(elderly) in West Africa. Methods: The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicenter, case-control study involving 15 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults aged ≥18 years with evidence of an acute stroke. Controls were age-and-gender matched stroke-free adults. Detailed evaluations for vascular, lifestyle, stroke severity and outcomes were performed. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of vascular risk factors of stroke. Results: Among 3,553 stroke cases, 813(22.9%) were young, 1441(40.6%) were middle-aged and 1299(36.6%) were elderly. Five modifiable risk factors were consistently associated with stroke occurrence regardless of age namely hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, regular meat consumption and non-consumption of green vegetables. Among the 5 co-shared risk factors, the effect size, aOR(95%CI) of dyslipidemia, 4.13(2.64-6.46), was highest among the young age group, hypertension, 28.93(15.10-55.44) and non-consumption of vegetables 2.34(1.70-3.23) was highest among the middle-age group while diabetes, aOR of 3.50(2.48-4.95) and meat consumption, 2.40(1.76-3.26) were highest among the elderly age group. Additionally, among the young age group cigarette smoking and cardiac disease were associated with stroke. Furthermore, physical inactivity and salt intake were associated with stroke in the middle-age group while cardiac disease was associated with stroke in the elderly age group. Conclusions: Age has a profound influence on the profile, magnitude and direction of effect sizes of vascular risk factors for stroke occurrence among West Africans. Population-level prevention of stroke must target both co-shared dominant risk factors as well as factors that are unique to specific age bands in Africa.

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SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-27163-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Cécile Tran Kiem ◽

Paolo Bosetti ◽

Juliette Paireau ◽

Pascal Crépey ◽

Henrik Salje ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Young Adults ◽

Age Groups ◽

Deep Understanding ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Age Group ◽

Older Individuals ◽

Targeted Intervention ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Intervention Measures ◽

Better Than

AbstractThe shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while relaxing general social distancing in the absence of vaccines. Evaluating such approaches requires a deep understanding of transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed age-specific case and hospitalization data to model the rebound in the French epidemic in summer 2020, characterize age-specific transmission dynamics and critically evaluate different age-targeted intervention measures in the absence of vaccines. We find that while the rebound started in young adults, it reached individuals aged ≥80 y.o. after 4 weeks, despite substantial contact reductions, indicating substantial transmission flows across ages. We derive the contribution of each age group to transmission. While shielding older individuals reduces mortality, it is insufficient to allow major relaxations of social distancing. When the epidemic remains manageable (R close to 1), targeting those most contributing to transmission is better than shielding at-risk individuals. Pandemic control requires an effort from all age groups.

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Subjectively perceived change in consumption along the living standards in old ages

Marketing & Menedzsment ◽

10.15170/mm.2021.55.ksz.02.02 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 55 (Különszám 2) ◽

pp. 21-31

Author(s):

Réka Hegedüs ◽

Klaudia Rádóczy

Keyword(s):

Human Resource Development ◽

Old Age ◽

Financial Management ◽

Cluster Formation ◽

The Elderly ◽

Pension Scheme ◽

Age Group ◽

Elderly Age ◽

New Findings ◽

Financial Awareness

THE AIMS OF THE PAPER The aim of our research is to provide a picture of the conditions for providing the income background necessary for old age, the spending habits of the 50 plus age group, and to illustrate how the old ages goup of our survey, the elderly age group we survey perceives changes in their spending in the last 10-year. METHODOLOGY We used a representative personal survey with 500 Hungarian people. This survey was made in February 2020 on a targeted sample of the Hungarian population aged 50-70. In the analysis method, we used cluster formation, because we tried to identify groups showing different consumption changes based on the consumption categories of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. MOST IMPORTANT RESULTS, NEW FINDINGS The results show that the people who participated in the survey had little perception of a change in their spending compared to their life 10 years before. On the other hand, our retirement income in old age may lag far behind the income in active, working years, so we can assume that if the significant decline in income did not affect consumption patterns, old-age income may be supplemented by savings in old age. EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE RESEARCH The clusters that we made shows well that the spendings of the 50-plus age group are also significant for the economy as a whole. The types of their expenditures is diverse and there is a lot of items that they would not necessarily be able to afford from an average income funded by the pension scheme. The characteristics of the clusters also show that there is a positive relationship between financial awareness (planning spending, exploring sales) and age. In our oppinion this is the reason why financial awareness education, the communications about this is very important. The financial management of households can be incorporated into the education of children from an early age. Acknowledgments: This research was partially supported by the Human Resource Development Operational Programme, grant No.: EFOP-3.6.1-16-2016-00004 “Comprehensive developments at the University of Pécs for the implementation of intelligent specialization”

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