scholarly journals Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dandan Zhao ◽  
Hong He ◽  
Wen Wang ◽  
Lei Wang ◽  
Haibo Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Wetland Area ◽  
High Latitude Region ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Latitude Region ◽  
Wetland Distribution

Wetlands in the mid- and high-latitudes are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes and have declined dramatically in recent decades. Climate change and human activities are arguably the most important factors driving wetland distribution changes which will have important implications for wetland ecological functions and services. We analyzed the importance of driving variables for wetland distribution and investigated the relative importance of climatic factors and human activity factors in driving historical wetland distribution changes. We predicted wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities over the 21st century using the Random Forest model in a mid- and high-latitude region of Northeast China. Climate change scenarios included three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on five general circulation models (GCMs) downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). The three scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) predicted radiative forcing to peak at 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m2 by the 2100s, respectively. Our results showed that the variables with high importance scores were agricultural population proportion, warmness index, distance to water body, coldness index, and annual mean precipitation; climatic variables were given higher importance scores than human activity variables on average. Average predicted wetland area among three emission scenarios were 340,000 ha, 123,000 ha, and 113,000 ha for the 2040s, 2070s, and 2100s, respectively. Average change percent in predicted wetland area among three periods was greatest under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario followed by RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios, which were 78%, 64%, and 55%, respectively. Losses in predicted wetland distribution were generally around agricultural lands and expanded continually from the north to the whole region over time, while the gains were mostly associated with grasslands and water in the most southern region. In conclusion, climatic factors had larger effects than human activity factors on historical wetland distribution changes and wetland distributions were predicted to decline remarkably over time under climate change scenarios. Our findings have important implications for wetland resource management and restoration because predictions of future wetland changes are needed for wetlands management planning.

scholarly journals Water Temperature and Hydrological Modelling in the Context of Environmental Flows and Future Climate Change: Case Study of the Wilmot River (Canada)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2101
Author(s):  
Christian Charron ◽  
André St-Hilaire ◽  
Taha B.M.J. Ouarda ◽  
Michael R. van den Heuvel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Abstraction ◽  
Surface Water Flow ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Simulation of surface water flow and temperature under a non-stationary, anthropogenically impacted climate is critical for water resource decision makers, especially in the context of environmental flow determination. Two climate change scenarios were employed to predict streamflow and temperature: RCP 8.5, the most pessimistic with regards to climate change, and RCP 4.5, a more optimistic scenario where greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2040. Two periods, 2018–2050 and 2051–2100, were also evaluated. In Canada, a number of modelling studies have shown that many regions will likely be faced with higher winter flow and lower summer flows. The CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model was calibrated and validated for the Wilmot River, Canada, using historic data for flow and temperature. Total annual precipitation in the region was found to remain stable under RCP 4.5 and increase over time under RCP 8.5. Median stream flow was expected to increase over present levels in the low flow months of August and September. However, increased climate variability led to higher numbers of periodic extreme low flow events and little change to the frequency of extreme high flow events. The effective increase in water temperature was four-fold greater in winter with an approximate mean difference of 4 °C, while the change was only 1 °C in summer. Overall implications for native coldwater fishes and water abstraction are not severe, except for the potential for more variability, and hence periodic extreme low flow/high temperature events.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change and human activity on the runoff in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River, Northwest China

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Li ◽  
Jianhua Xu ◽  
Zhongsheng Chen ◽  
Benfu Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Shiyang River Basin ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Increasing Trend

Based on the hydrological and meteorological data of the upper reaches of Shiyang River basin in Northwest China from 1960 to 2009, this paper analyzed the change in runoff and its related climatic factors, and estimated the contribution of climate change and human activity to runoff change by using the moving T test, cumulative analysis of anomalies and multiple regression analysis. The results showed that temperature revealed a significant increasing trend, and potential evaporation capacity decreased significantly, while precipitation increased insignificantly in the past recent 50 years. Although there were three mutations in 1975, 1990 and 2002 respectively, runoff presented a slight decreasing trend in the whole period. The contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff change during the period of 1976-2009 were 45% and 55% respectively.

scholarly journals Climatic suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia in Malawi using climate change scenarios.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Junior Zuza ◽  
Yoseph Negusse Araya ◽  
Kadmiel Maseyk ◽  
Shonil A Bhagwat ◽  
Kaue de Sousa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Species ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Model Approach

Climate change is altering suitable areas of crop species worldwide, with cascading effects on people and animals reliant upon those crop species as food sources. Macadamia is one of Malawi's most important and profitable crop species. Here, we used an ensemble model approach to determine the current distribution of macadamia producing areas across Malawi in relation to climate. For future distribution of suitable areas, we used the climate outputs of 17 general circulation models (GCM's) based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We found that the precipitation of the driest month and isothermality were the climatic variables that strongly influenced macadamia's suitability in Malawi. These climatic requirements were fulfilled across many areas in Malawi under the current conditions. Future projections indicated that large parts of Malawi's macadamia growing regions will remain suitable for macadamia, amounting to 36,910 km2 (39.1%) and 33,511 km2 (35.5%) of land based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Of concern, suitable areas for macadamia production are predicted to shrink by −18% (17,015 km2) and −22% (20,414 km2) based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with much of the suitability shifting northwards. Although a net loss of area suitable for macadamia is predicted, some currently unsuitable areas will become suitable in the future. Notably, suitable areas will increase in Malawi's central and northern regions, while the southern region will lose most of its suitable areas. In conclusion, our study provides critical evidence that climate change will significantly affect the macadamia sub-sector in Malawi. Therefore area-specific adaptation strategies are required to build resilience.

scholarly journals Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Arbutus andrachne L. belonging to climate change in Turkey.

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayse Gul Sarikaya ◽  
◽  
Omer K. Orucu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Tree ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Maxent Modeling ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Turkish Flora

Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.

scholarly journals Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3046
Author(s):  
Gashaw Gismu Chakilu ◽  
Szegedi Sándor ◽  
Túri Zoltán
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Gumara Watershed ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrological dynamics of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. The understanding of the change in climate and its impact on water resource is of paramount importance to sustainable water resources management. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which the climate is being changed and its impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Results showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84 °C, 2.6 °C, and 4.1 °C in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2%, and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The change in stream flow of Gumara watershed under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios showed increasing trend in monthly average values in some months and years, but a decreasing trend was also observed in some years of the studied period. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67%under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Climate change risks to push large parts of global food production and population centres to unprecedented conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matti Kummu ◽  
Matias Heino ◽  
Maija Taka ◽  
Olli Varis ◽  
Daniel Viviroli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Production Areas ◽  
Global Food

<p>The majority of global food production, as we know it, is based on agricultural practices developed within stable Holocene climate conditions. Climate change is altering the key conditions for human societies, such as precipitation, temperature and aridity. Their combined impact on altering the conditions in areas where people live and grow food has not yet, however, been systematically quantified on a global scale. Here, we estimate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) on major population centres and food crop production areas at 5 arc-min scale (~10 km at equator) using Holdridge Life Zones (HLZs), a concept that incorporates all the aforementioned climatic characteristics. We found that if rapid growth of GHG emissions is not halted (RCP 8.5), in year 2070, one fifth of the major food production areas and one fourth of the global population centres would experience climate conditions beyond the ones where food is currently produced, and people are living. Our results thus reinforce the importance of following the RCP 2.6 path, as then only a small fraction of food production (5%) and population centres (6%) would face such unprecedented conditions. Several areas experiencing these unprecedented conditions also have low resilience, such as those within Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. In these countries over 75% of food production and population would experience unprecedented climatic conditions under RCP 8.5. These and many other hotspot areas require the most urgent attention to secure sustainable development and equity.</p>

scholarly journals Modelling Snowmelt Runoff from Tropical Andean Glaciers under Climate Change Scenarios in the Santa River Sub-Basin (Peru)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3535
Author(s):  
Elmer Calizaya ◽  
Abel Mejía ◽  
Elgar Barboza ◽  
Fredy Calizaya ◽  
Fernando Corroto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Snow Covered Area ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Andean Glaciers ◽  
Elevation Model

Effects of climate change have led to a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature across several areas of the world. This has resulted in a sharp decline of glaciers and an increase in surface runoff in watersheds due to snowmelt. This situation requires a better understanding to improve the management of water resources in settled areas downstream of glaciers. In this study, the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) was applied in combination with snow-covered area information (SCA), precipitation, and temperature climatic data to model snowmelt runoff in the Santa River sub-basin (Peru). The procedure consisted of calibrating and validating the SRM model for 2005–2009 using the SRTM digital elevation model (DEM), observed temperature, precipitation and SAC data. Then, the SRM was applied to project future runoff in the sub-basin under the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. SRM patterns show consistent results; runoff decreases in the summer months and increases the rest of the year. The runoff projection under climate change scenarios shows a substantial increase from January to May, reporting the highest increases in March and April, and the lowest records from June to August. The SRM demonstrated consistent projections for the simulation of historical flows in tropical Andean glaciers.

scholarly journals The impact of heat on kidney stone presentations in South Carolina under two climate change scenarios

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Kaufman ◽  
Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera ◽  
Vicky Tam ◽  
Lihai Song ◽  
Ethan Coffel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Kidney Stone ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe risk of kidney stone presentations increases after hot days, likely due to greater insensible water losses resulting in more concentrated urine and altered urinary flow. It is thus expected that higher temperatures from climate change will increase the global prevalence of kidney stones if no adaptation measures are put in place. This study aims to quantify the impact of heat on kidney stone presentations through 2089, using South Carolina as a model state. We used a time series analysis of historical kidney stone presentations (1997–2014) and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the temperature dependence of kidney stone presentations, and then quantified the projected impact of climate change on future heat-related kidney stone presentations using daily projections of wet-bulb temperatures to 2089, assuming no adaptation or demographic changes. Two climate change models were considered—one assuming aggressive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 4.5) and one representing uninibited greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5). The estimated total statewide kidney stone presentations attributable to heat are projected to increase by 2.2% in RCP 4.5 and 3.9% in RCP 8.5 by 2085–89 (vs. 2010–2014), with an associated total excess cost of ~ $57 million and ~ $99 million, respectively.

scholarly journals Modelling Projected Changes in Soil Water Budget in Coastal Kenya under Different Long-Term Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2455
Author(s):  
Cornelius Okello ◽  
Nicolas Greggio ◽  
Beatrice Maria Sole Giambastiani ◽  
Nina Wambiji ◽  
Julius Nzeve ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Soil Water Content ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Clay Soil ◽  
Soil Column ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Deep Percolation ◽  
Rcp 8.5

The possible impacts that climate change will have on soil water budget and specifically on deep percolation, runoff and soil water content have been investigated using HYDRUS, a methodology based on numerical modelling simulations of vertical water movement in a homogenous soil column on a flat surface. This study was carried out on four typical soil types occurring on the Kenyan coast and the adjacent hinterlands of up to an elevation of 200 m above sea level (m a.s.l.) covered by five weather stations (two dry and three wet stations). Results show that deep percolation and runoff are expected to be higher in 2100 for both Relative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios than they were for the reference period (1986–2005). The average deep percolation is expected to increase by 14% for RCP 2.6 and 10% for the RCP 8.5, while the average runoff is expected to increase by 188% and 284% for the same scenarios. Soil water content is expected to either increase marginally or reduce depend in the same scenarios. The average soil water content is also expected to increase by 1% in the RCP 2.6 scenario and to decrease by 2% in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Increase in deep percolation through clay soil is expected to be the largest (29% in both scenarios), while sandy and sandy clay soil are expected to be the least influenced with an average increase of only 2%. Climate change is expected to impact runoff mostly in sandy soils, whereas the least affected would be clay loam soils. These results further support the assertion that the change in climate is expected to impact the recharge of aquifers by triggering an increase in infiltration under both scenarios.

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