Spatial-Temporal Variance of Coupling Relationship between Population Modernization and Eco-Environment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

Steady population growth promotes economic and societal progress, and the symbiotic coordination between the ecological environment and the local population is the necessary requirement for realizing sustainability. We used population modernization and ecological environment data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2005 to 2016 to construct two index systems. We used the variation coefficient method, the coupling degree model, and a geographical detector to analyze the coordination degree of population modernization and the ecological environment. The results showed that: (1) From 2005 to 2016, the coupling degree was stable at a high level, the degree of coordination increased, and the growth rate decreased; (2) From the perspective of spatial distribution, the types of good harmony and high harmony were located in the middle, eastern, and western regions. The adjacent disorder and moderate disorder regions were distributed in the north and south sides; (3) Through influence detection, we found the main factors that influenced the spatial distribution of coordination degree were the natural population growth rate, health technicians/10,000 people, etc. These factors had some characteristics of space-time heterogeneity. Such results can contribute to the understanding of characteristics of population-environment development in different regions, promoting sustainable development of regional environment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.

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Breeding transients in capture–recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-72778-x ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Daniel Oro ◽

Daniel F. Doak

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Population Dynamics ◽

Population Growth ◽

Population Growth Rate ◽

Local Population ◽

Environmental Stochasticity ◽

Adult Survival ◽

Local Survival ◽

First Reproduction ◽

Capture Recapture

Abstract Standard procedures for capture–mark–recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988–2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture–recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

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Warming, soil moisture, and loss of snow increase Bromus tectorum’s population growth rate

Elem Sci Anth ◽

10.12952/journal.elementa.000020 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Aldo Compagnoni ◽

Peter B. Adler

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Population Growth ◽

Snow Cover ◽

Population Growth Rate ◽

Experimental Manipulation ◽

Direct Effects ◽

Vital Rates ◽

Positive Effects ◽

The North ◽

Increasing Temperature

Abstract Climate change threatens to exacerbate the impacts of invasive species. In temperate ecosystems, direct effects of warming may be compounded by dramatic reductions in winter snow cover. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is arguably the most destructive biological invader in basins of the North American Intermountain West, and warming could increase its performance through direct effects on demographic rates or through indirect effects mediated by loss of snow. We conducted a two-year experimental manipulation of temperature and snow pack to test whether 1) warming increases cheatgrass population growth rate and 2) reduced snow cover contributes to cheatgrass’ positive response to warming. We used infrared heaters operating continuously to create the warming treatment, but turned heaters on only during snowfalls for the snowmelt treatment. We monitored cheatgrass population growth rate and the vital rates that determine it: emergence, survival and fecundity. Growth rate increased in both warming and snowmelt treatments. The largest increases occurred in warming plots during the wettest year, indicating that the magnitude of response to warming depends on moisture availability. Warming increased both fecundity and survival, especially in the wet year, while snowmelt contributed to the positive effects of warming by increasing survival. Our results indicate that increasing temperature will exacerbate cheatgrass impacts, especially where warming causes large reductions in the depth and duration of snow cover.

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Rural–Urban Gradients and Human Population Dynamics

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11113107 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 3107 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Javier Montalvo ◽

Enrique Ruiz-Labrador ◽

Pablo Montoya-Bernabéu ◽

Belén Acosta-Gallo

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Population Growth ◽

Human Population ◽

Population Growth Rate ◽

Cultural Landscapes ◽

Social Issues ◽

Local Population ◽

Population Mean ◽

Management Interventions ◽

Demographic Challenge

Rural–urban gradients offer an appropriate ecological framework for understanding relevant social issues to sustainability and policy planning. We tested the hypothesis that human population growth rate at a local scale is indirectly driven by spatial and rurality gradients, which can be applied to cultural landscapes in Mediterranean Europe. The whole of local administrative/spatial units of Spain—8125 municipalities—, previously classified into five categories along a rural–urban gradient, was used as a case study. Several geospatial patterns and associations among local average per capita population growth rate, population mean age, road accessibility, and other environmental and landscape variables linked to rurality gradients were identified by means of geographic information system (GIS) and multivariate statistics. Regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between population size changes through time and other demographic and territorial variables. Population growth rate was associated with road accessibility and rurality gradient, supporting the established hypothesis. Short-term population growth or decline was directly driven by population mean age. A visual hypothesized model of local population growth rate based on empirical evidence is presented. The results are useful for decision-makers, from local land management interventions to developing strategies and policies to address the demographic challenge.

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Internal Coordinated Development of China's Urbanization and its Spatiotemporal Evolution

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11030626 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 626 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Liangzhen Zang ◽

Yiqing Su

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Spatial Distribution ◽

Eastern China ◽

River Delta ◽

Spatial Data Analysis ◽

Western China ◽

Spatiotemporal Evolution ◽

Coordinated Development ◽

Urbanization Development ◽

Coordination Degree

High urbanization quality, predominantly determined by the degree of internal coordinated development, is the most important factor in promoting urbanization development. Based on the panel data of 283 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2016, this paper analysed the internal coordination degree, spatial distribution and spatiotemporal evolution of urbanization using the methods of range standardization, entropy, and coupling and coordination models, as well as exploratory spatial data analysis. We found the following results: (1) The internal coordination degree of China’s urbanization was at a low level for a long time, but it presented a gradually increasing trend; (2) The internal coordinated development of urbanization exhibited an obvious spatial agglomeration. Specifically, it displayed a stepped pattern with a higher internal coordination degree in eastern China, a lower degree in western China, and a spatial distribution with multi-centre agglomeration and diffusion. (3) The spatial distribution of the internal coordinated development of urbanization was stable in most regions of China, only changing in a few. (4) The growth rate of the internal coordination degree of China’s urbanization presented the pattern of a dotted distribution, while the growth rate in western China was higher than in central and eastern China. The spatiotemporal evolution relates to the policies changes of China’s urbanization. In particular, the urbanization in China transfers its focus from population transfer to the development of quality from 2007 to 2016. To promote the sustainable and healthy development of China's new urbanization, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta shall focus on accelerating the transformation of economic development mode; The provinces located around the above three regions shall strengthen the upgrading and promotion of basic public services. The northeast and central provinces shall speed up the innovation of systems and mechanisms and gradually release the potential of urbanization development by promoting the mobility of urban population, and the vast majority of provinces in Western China shall further improve the spatial development potential for urbanization.

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Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Coupling and Coordination Relationship of Tourism–Urbanization–Ecological Environment System in China’s Major Tourist Cities

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13115867 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 5867

Author(s):

Xia Xie ◽

Hui Sun ◽

Jun Gao ◽

Feifei Chen ◽

Chunshan Zhou

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Evaluation Index System ◽

Ecological Environment ◽

Development Mode ◽

Comprehensive Development ◽

Tourism Urbanization ◽

Relationship Of ◽

Practical Implications ◽

Coordination Degree

Determining the coupling development mode and evolution process of the tourism industry–urbanization–ecological environment system is of great significance in promoting high-quality and sustainable development of tourism and the urban economy. In this study, an evaluation index system of the tourism–urbanization–ecological environment system was established, and the spatiotemporal differentiation of the coupling and coordination relationship of the tourism–urbanization–ecological environment system was analyzed for 35 major tourist cities in China from 2009 to 2018. The results show that the comprehensive development indices of the tourism industry subsystem and urbanization subsystem of China’s major tourist cities have steadily increased. The comprehensive development indices of large-sized and medium-sized cities in the east are relatively high. From 2009 to 2018, the coordination degree and coupling degree of the tourism–urbanization–ecological environment’’ system of 35 tourist cities showed an upward trend. The growth rate of the coupling coordination degree lags behind the growth rate of the coupling degree, and the overall system coordination level is still low. There are significant differences in the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree among the eastern, central, and western cities. This study offers both theoretical and practical implications for further equalizing the development level between the cities, as well as improving the overall coordination between the tourism industry, urbanization, and the ecological environment in China.

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Seasonal rainfall in subtropical montane cloud forests drives demographic fluctuations in a Green-backed Tit population

The Condor ◽

10.1093/condor/duaa043 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ming-Tang Shiao ◽

Mei-Chen Chuang ◽

Hsiao-Wei Yuan ◽

Ying Wang

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Population Growth ◽

Cloud Forest ◽

Geometric Mean ◽

Local Population ◽

Simulated Data ◽

Seasonal Rainfall ◽

Adult Survival ◽

Adult Bird ◽

Long Term Study

Abstract Montane birds are vulnerable to climate change. However, the mechanisms by which weather drives demographic processes in montane birds have seldom been investigated. We conducted a long-term study (2009–2019) on the Green-backed Tit (Parus monticolus), an insectivorous passerine, in the montane cloud forest of subtropical Taiwan. We explored the effects of weather variability on the productivity and survival of adult Green-backed Tits. Nest survival was negatively associated with seasonal rainfall during the breeding season (April–July) and was lower in early clutches than in late clutches. Higher typhoon-induced precipitation during the postbreeding period (July–September) was related to reduced adult survival, but neither summer temperature nor winter weather conditions were found to be related to adult bird survival. We developed a stochastic simulation model for Green-backed Tit population dynamics based on empirical data. We compared the simulated time-series and observed population growth rates (λ) and found that 80% (8/10 yr) of the observed λ fell within the 5th and 95th percentiles of the simulated data over the 10-yr period. Moreover, the simulated average (± standard deviation) of the geometric mean of λ over 10 yr (1.05 ± 0.07) was close to that observed from 2009 to 2019 (0.99), which provided confidence that the model effectively simulated the population growth rate of the Green-backed Tit. We conducted a sensitivity analysis for λ and found that juvenile and adult survival influenced by typhoon-induced rainfall were the greatest contributors to the variance in the growth rate of the Green-backed Tit population. With the onset of intensified seasonal precipitation associated with global warming, the population growth and density of Green-backed Tits will decline substantially. Our results suggest that under scenarios of high emissions of greenhouse gas, this local population of Green-backed Tits will not persist in the near future.

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Women's Operative Method of Contraception in Dr. Soetomo General Hospital Surabaya

International Islamic Medical Journal ◽

10.33086/iimj.v2i1.1756 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 8-16

Author(s):

Rio Obsatrya ◽

Rizki Pranadyan

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Spatial Distribution ◽

Population Growth ◽

General Hospital ◽

Population Growth Rate ◽

Medical Record Data ◽

Operative Method ◽

Record Data ◽

Effective Contraceptive

Background: Indonesia is expected to face a Demographic surge in 2025 so that the maternal mortality rate is at risk to follow. Steady contraception is needed to control the population growth rate. Women's Operative Method Contraception (MOW) is the most effective contraceptive tool in controlling the population growth rate. The use of MOW contraception in Dr, Soetomo General Hospital Surabaya still cannot be explained. Purpose: To know the spatial distribution of Women's Operative Method of Contraception in Dr. Soetomo General Hospital Surabaya 2016 - 2019. Method: Retrospective study using medical record data, in Dr. Soetomo General Hospital Surabaya 2016 – 2019. Results: Post-deliveries MOW contraception acceptor were 23.3% in 2016 (307 of 1320 deliveries), 29.9% in 2017 (405 of 1355 deliveries), 29.2% in 2018 (432 of 1479 deliveries) and 26, 7% in 2019 (413 of 1389 deliveries). The majority of patients aged over 35 years (72.2%), multiparous (98.6%). came from Surabaya (62.9%), non-booked case-patients (82.0%), and have an overweight BMI (45.2%). There are 55.7% of postpartum MOW acceptors with concomitant diseases. Hypertension and obesity are the highest ranks of comorbidities in the MOW contraception acceptor. Conclusion: Postpartum MOW contraception acceptor in RSUD dr. Soetomo has increased every year. But further evaluation and follow up regarding increasing the percentage of postpartum MOW contraception acceptor in Dr. Soetomo General Hospital Surabaya is still very much needed.

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