scholarly journals Sustainable Visual Analysis for Bank Non-Performing Loans and Government Debt Distress

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Liu ◽  
Yumin Liu ◽  
Jong-Min Kim
Keyword(s):  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Functional Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Debt Markets ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

This article visualizes bank non-performing loans (NPLs) and government debt distress data integration and an outcome classification after the outbreak of European sovereign debt. Linear and functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and biclustering are used to show the clustering pattern of NPLs and government debt for 25 EU and BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) during the period of 2006 to 2017 through high-dimensional visualizations. The results demonstrate that the government debt markets of EU countries experienced a similar trend in terms of NPLs, with a similar size of NPLs across debt markets. Through visualization, we find that the government debt and NPLs of EU and BRICS countries increased drastically after the crisis, and crisis countries are contagious. However, the impact of the Greek debt crisis is lower for non-crisis countries, because the debt markets of these countries are decoupled from the Greek market. We also find that sovereign debtors in the EU countries have much closer fiscal linkages than BRICS countries. The level of crisis in the EU countries will be higher than that in the BRICS countries if crisis is driven by the common shocks of macroeconomic fundamentals.

scholarly journals DEBT POLICY IMPLEMENTATION IN EU COUNTRIES: LESSONS FOR UKRAINE

2018 ◽  
pp. 7-19
Author(s):  
Ihor LYUTY ◽  
Yuliia TERES
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Debt Policy ◽  
The Eu

Introduction. The implementation of debt policy in the EU countries is associated with a range of problems, in particular, rising social spending, and increasing budget deficits. In recent years, Member States have had a negative impact on the debt crisis, which is primarily due to unbridled fiscal policies of individual countries and the banking crisis. Purpose. The article is devoted to issues of implementation of debt policy in the EU countries and the problems of overcoming the consequences of the debt crisis, which began in 2008 and extends to today. An estimation of the possibilities of using this experience in Ukraine is made considering the fact that the country is on the verge of a debt crisis. Results. It has been determined that the sovereign debt crisis is a crisis of confidence for the EU, in particular the euro zone. This required adjusting both the socio-economic and financial policies of the EU. It can be argued that the Stability and Growth Pact did not take place and that now Europe needs to form a qualitatively new budget system that could more effectively cope with the adverse economic consequences or even the failure of a Member State to fulfill its obligations. It has been determined that one of the main items of budget expenditures of the European Union countries is government debt service costs. Public debt management, above all, is carried out through government debt securities. There is a tendency to reduce the share of shortterm public debt and increase the long-term, which provides reduction of budget expenditures for servicing public debt. In particular, in some EU countries there are strict rules that determine the conditions for external borrowing, for example, new loans should not exceed the annual amounts of debt to be repaid. Conclusions. It has been established that a number of measures have been implemented in the EU countries to address the consequences of the debt crisis, in particular: diversification of sources of state debt financing and optimization of terms of circulation of government debt securities; fiscal consolidation; increase maturity of debt obligations and optimize the structure of the public debt portfolio. It is concluded that the measures taken by the EU countries to overcome the consequences of the debt crisis may be useful for Ukraine and, in fact, is a step-by-step guide for the presentation of crisis phenomena, taking into account positive and negative experiences.

scholarly journals Clustering Analysis of Risk Divergence of China Government’s Debts

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Tianhao Ouyang ◽  
Xiaoyong Lu
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Difficult Time ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

It is a difficult time for the world’s economics while the impact of COVID-19 is undergoing. A possible worldwide sovereign debt crisis could emerge, in short term, for supply chains blockage due to its slowing-down in many countries. China, having the second largest economy in the world, is crucial for the stability and sustainability of the economic recovery. China endures a long-term growth since 2000; nevertheless, a large amount of that growth is contributed by the government debt, which was spent on infrastructures. The accumulation of debts is a potential risk to the future growth of China. This research evaluates the central government and local government debts with a series of indicators. The weights of indicators are determined by objective methods of the CRITIC approach. Results confirm that the central government debt of China is on the edge of risk, while the risk of local governments debt is already in a concerning danger. The local government risk is 50% higher than the central government’s risk. Moreover, the K-means clustering algorithm performed on data, collected from various provinces, suggests that the local government debts of China follow a pattern of geographical distribution; that is, the closer to the coast, the lesser the risk, which is in accordance with the pattern of labor flowing. Labors are attracted by job opportunities which lie in the well-developed regions of China. This is confirmed by the crosscheck with the wage growth data. This indicates that the less developed areas of China rely more heavily on debt-investment stimulation that could be of a potential stagnation because the yield of investment follows diminishing marginal returns and the relative lacking labor weakens the potential economic growth.

scholarly journals Government debt forecasting based on the Arima model

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 120-127
Author(s):  
Fedir Zhuravka ◽  
Hanna Filatova ◽  
John O. Aiyedogbon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
The Government ◽  
Simulated Time

The paper explores theoretical and practical aspects of forecasting the government debt in Ukraine. A visual analysis of changes in the amount of government debt was conducted, which has made it possible to conclude about the deepening of the debt crisis in the country. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is considered as the basic forecasting model; besides, the model work and its diagnostics are estimated. The EViews software package illustrates the procedure for forecasting the Ukrainian government debt for the ARIMA model: the series for stationarity was tested, the time series of monthly government debt was converted into stationary by making a number of transformations and determining model parameters; as a result, the most optimal specification for the ARIMA model was chosen.Based on the simulated time series, it is concluded that ARIMA tools can be used to predict the government debt values.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF MINIMUM WAGE ON THE LABOUR MARKET OF LITHUANIA

Ekonomika ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
pp. 78-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vita Karpuškienė
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Recently, Lithuanian trade unions have announced the requirement for the government to raise the minimum wage by more than 10 percent, e.g. from 800 to 900 Lt. The aim of the study was to investigate the possible consequences of the implementation of such a requirement. Minimum wage (MW) macroeconomics in theoretical aspects and the practical evidence of it consequences in the EU countries are analyzed in the first part of the article. The second part provides an assessment of the impact of the 100 Lt raise in MW on the Lithuanian labor market. This assessment is carried out using econometric techniques.

scholarly journals Non-Price Criteria for the Evaluation of the Tender Offers in Public Procurement of Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Alexander Baranovsky ◽  
Nataliia Tkachenko ◽  
Vladimer Glonti ◽  
Valentyna Levchenko ◽  
Kateryna Bogatyrova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Procurement ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Tender Offers ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Eu

Traditionally, public procurement has been associated with the measurement of achieving savings. However, recent research shows that the economic impact of public procurement is not limited only to savings, but by measuring the impact of four capitals—natural, human, social, and economic—on sustainable well-being over time. Ukraine is a country with a very low gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, which exacerbates the problem of the impact of public procurement results on the population’s welfare. Ukrainian public procurement legislation allows customers to apply non-price criteria (the share of non-price criteria cannot be more than 70%), which, together, are taken into account in the formula of the quoted price. The studies show that the effect of the use of non-price criteria depends on the relevance of the method of the evaluation of non-price criteria. The most important non-price criteria for Ukrainian customers by product categories and the methods of their evaluation are analyzed according to the Bi.prozorro.org analytics module. Therefore, it is concluded that the quoted price method, which is used in Ukrainian practice, is not relevant in comparison with the method used in the EU. A survey of the government buyers on the practice of applying non-price criteria was conducted, and the areas of their use were identified.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Implementation of Cohesion Policy on the Sustainable Development of EU Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (15) ◽  
pp. 4173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramona Pîrvu ◽  
Cristian Drăgan ◽  
Gheorghe Axinte ◽  
Sorin Dinulescu ◽  
Mihaela Lupăncescu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Cohesion Policy ◽  
Member States ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Official Data ◽  
The Eu

The impact of implementation of cohesion policy on the sustainable development of EU countries is of great interest and presents a number of actual challenges. This research aims to evaluate the impact and the effects of the cohesion policy among the Member States using hierarchical clustering analysis in order to identify how the selected variables affect the sustainable development adopted models. The variables used in the analysis were selected on the basis of official data provided by the European Commission, SDG Index and Dashboards Reports and the EU Cohesion Monitor. The results of the research have led to the grouping of the 28 Member States in a number of six clusters, identifying performers but also those countries that have a high potential for sustainable development or which require increased attention to be sustained in recovering existing gaps. The results of the study can be a starting point for policy makers and other stakeholders involved in their efforts to support sustainable development through effective and effective policies.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION BETWEEN UKRAINE AND EU ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Olefir ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Comparison Method ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
European Standards ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The benefits and costs of the implementation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the EU have been studied. The study aimed to find out to what extent the implementation of DCFTA has helped increase exports and attract foreign direct investment into Ukraine’s economy. A comparison method was used to conduct the study. The period of implementation of the DCFTA (2016-2020) was compared with the period before the implementation of the DCFTA (2010- 2014). Due to trade liberalization, exports of Ukrainian goods to the EU and imports of goods from the EU to Ukraine have increased. Trade liberalization has not contributed to further attracting foreign direct investment from the EU to Ukraine’s economy. The urgent task of the Government of Ukraine is to create a business regulatory environment according to European standards and protect foreign investment.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impact of EU Sanctions on Budget Revenues of Russia in the Context of New Industrialization in Terms of National Dimension

2021 ◽  
Vol 93 ◽  
pp. 02003
Author(s):  
Andrey Anisimov ◽  
Oksana Kolotkina ◽  
Inara Yagofarova
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Russian State ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Tax Payments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Industrialization ◽  
The Eu

The article examines topical issues that assess the impact of EU sanctions on the volume of tax revenues of the consolidated budget of Russia. The main purpose of this study is an attempt to develop a factor model that allows assessing the sanctions impact on the specified tax revenues, describing and analyzing the factors that directly or indirectly affect the formation of the consolidated budget revenues of the Russian Federation, identifying the corresponding relationships during the period of new industrialization. A separate stage of the presented study is associated with the development of the above model, which evaluates the sanctions effect on the composition of tax revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation and verification of the adequacy of this model. The authors' own research made it possible to develop a conceptual factor model that assesses the impact of the sanctions effect of the EU countries on the composition and volume of tax revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation, the use of which makes it possible to analyze the proceeds from the tax payments that have come under the influence of the sanctions. The model presented by the authors makes it possible to fundamentally assess the real impact of the applied sanctions on tax revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation, to develop appropriate directions in the development of the country during the period of the new industrialization of the Russian state.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ECOLOGICAL BUSINESS IN UKRAINE

2017 ◽  
pp. 100-104
Author(s):  
Iryna Skorokhod ◽  
Lyudmyla Hrynchuk
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
The State ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Status ◽  
Factors Of Influence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Further Development ◽  
The Eu

Introduction. The article deals the impact of European integration on the development of ecological business in Ukraine. The Association of Ukraine and the EU implies adaptation and reforms not only in economy, but also in others areas, including ecology. The factors of influence and their consequences on the development of environmental business in the state are investigated. The main obstacles for using the experience of the EU countries are highlighted. Prospects of further using of "green enterprise" methods in Ukraine are considered. Purpose. The aim of the article is to reveal the essence, forms, stages of formation and innovative forms of the ecological business; to analyze the experience of ecological business and its regulation in the EU countries; to characterize the status and the impact of European integration on ecological business in Ukraine. Method (methodology). Methods of analogy and comparison are used in the study of problematic aspects of Ukraine and the EU in the field of ecology. Statistical methods are used for analyzing the dynamics of indicators of the development of ecological business in the state. Systematic approach is used for explaining strategic guidelines and identifying further promising ways for the development of ecological business in Ukraine. Results. The main aspects of cooperation between Ukraine and the EU have been analyzed. The main directions of further development of common cooperation have been singled out. The proposals of improving the position of Ukrainian eco-goods and services on the European market have been substantiated.

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