scholarly journals Results of probabilistic hydrological processes research at RSHU

2020 ◽  
pp. 255-268
Author(s):  
V.V. Kovalenko ◽  
E.V. Gaidukova ◽  
N.V. Viсtorova ◽  
V.A. Khaustov ◽  
V.S. Devyatov
Keyword(s):  
River Runoff ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Runoff Formation ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Engineering Hydrology

Currently, long-term estimates can be obtained either under the assumption of statistical stationarity of hydrometeorological processes using actual series of observations for the previous decades, i.e., in fact, by extrapolating “frozen” current probabilistic estimates to the future, or by modeling (calculation) based on equilibrium climatic scenarios under the assumption of statistical sustainability of runoff series, according to which parameterization of forecast models of runoff formation is conducted. The article considers the methodology of partially infinite hydrology, which includes sustainable forecasting of runoff and diagnostics of bifurcations of its formation, allows solving fundamentally new hydrological problems (including problems of engineering hydrology) related to the possibility of obtaining longterm estimates of probabilistic characteristics of long-term river runoff under the conditions of evolutionary changes in the runoff formation factors (climate and anthropogenic activity in catchment areas). Using the methods and patterns of partially infinite hydrology and relying only on the available hydrometeorological information (obtained at the state network of standard observations), known climatic scenarios and plans for the socio-economic development of the territory, the following main results have been obtained: 1) river basins have been diagnosed (as well as time intervals in the future), the ones in which (and when) it is possible to change the additive mechanism of the smooth evolution of the flow formation process to a bifurcation mechanism (the appearance of bifurcation foci) being identified, i.e. engineering hydrology documents can be questioned; 2) a methodology has been developed for sustainable forecasting of the probabilistic characteristics of long-term river runoff using various options for its formation models (unimodal, polymodal, one-dimensional, multidimensional, etc.).

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE RIVER LINE OF THE OKA BASIN FOR THE COMING PERIOD OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE XXI CENTURY

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 71-75
Author(s):  
G. Kh. Ismaiylov ◽  
◽  
N.V. Muraschenkova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
21St Century ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
The City

A retrospective analysis and assessment of long-term changes in the annual and seasonal runoff of the Oka River basin over a long 131-year observation period (1881 / 1882–2011/2012) was performed. The changes in the annual distribution of the Oka river runoff over the seasons of the year (spring flood, summer-autumn and winter low water) from its annual value for the selected time periods (before and after 1976/1977) are considered. It has been noted that over the past decades, river runoff has been formed in new climatic conditions associated with global changes and, as a result, regional climate. The assessment of possible changes in the annual and seasonal runoff of the Oka River basin (to the final alignment – the city of Kaluga, with a basin area of 54,900 km2 ) in the first half of the 21st century is carried out. In assessing changes in the river flow of the Oka basin for the future period, the method of trends (trends) is used, based on the identification of cycles in fluctuations in hydrological characteristics and unidirectional trends (trends) inherent in individual phases (ups and downs) of these cycles, as well as to the establishment of functional (correlation) relationships between environmental factors (climatic, anthropogenic) and the nature of the response (river flow). In this case, the trend model serves as an alternative to the homogeneity hypothesis of long-term fluctuations in river flow. The change in the future values of the river flow of the Oka basin was estimated using averaged data of 30-year periods of time characterized by relative stationarity of climatic and hydrological conditions. The dynamics of the average 30-year values of the annual runoff in the upper reaches of the Oka River (the closure target is the city of Kaluga for the period 1881/1882–2011/2012) is considered. Possible forecasted mean annual values of the annual flow of the Oka River for the first half of the 21st century are obtained

Prognostic models of development of processes of catastrophic long-term annual river runoff formation

2010 ◽  
Vol 35 (10) ◽  
pp. 695-699
Author(s):  
V. V. Kovalenko ◽  
E. V. Gaidukova ◽  
D. V. Chistyakov ◽  
A. Hamlili
Keyword(s):  
River Runoff ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Runoff Formation ◽  
Models Of Development

scholarly journals Application of the operator model of runoff formation to determine the average long-term values of maximum water discharge of spring flood in the Pivdenny Buh basin

2019 ◽  
pp. 49-63
Author(s):  
A. A. Dokus ◽  
V. A. Ovcharuk ◽  
Zh. R. Shakirzanova
Keyword(s):  
Initial Data ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Operator Model ◽  
Runoff Formation ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Maximum Water

In the context of Ukraine's integration into the European Union and implementation of the main provisions of Directive 2007/60/EC which implies assessment of potential hydrological risks, long-term factors of their formation, in particular the effects of climate change and the trend of river water regime changes should be taken into consideration. With this in mind, given the presence of both current long-term tendencies to reduction of runoff layers (volumes) and maximum discharge of water of spring flood across the Ukrainian rivers there is an important task to identify, using the modern initial data, both the average long-term values of these characteristics and different probability of their exceedance probability. For the first time, the authors of the study implemented an operator model of runoff formation to determine the average long-term values of maximum water discharge of spring flood in the basin of the Pivdenny Buh using meteorological characteristics (snowpack and precipitation) and runoff coefficients as basic parameters. The model was applied to determine the maximum runoff modules of spring floods for the rivers with a wide range of catchment areas affected by different physical and geographical conditions within the Pivdenny Buh Basin. Application of the operator model allowed the authors of the article to calculate and summarize all input parameters of the calculation model, including those obtained from observational data (snowpack, precipitation) and those that can't be measured by the hydrometeorological network (runoff coefficient, temporal irregularity coefficient and duration of surface inflow of snowmelt and rain water, transformational function of the flood waves layering under the influence of channel lag, coefficient of channel and floodplain regulation) for the rivers of the Pivdenny Buh Basin. The verifying calculation related to determination of the average long-term values of the maximum modules of spring flood runoff using  the operator model showed satisfactory concordance with the initial data and this allowed recommending it for practical application for the rivers of the Pivdenny Buh Basin, including those that haven't been studied from the hydrological perspective.

Understanding long-term persistence and multifractal behaviors in river runoff: A detailed study over China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naiming Yuan ◽  
Wenlu Wu ◽  
Fenghua Xie ◽  
Yanjun Qi
Keyword(s):  
River Runoff ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation

<p><span>Long-term persistence (LTP) and multifractality in river runoff fluctuations have been well recognized over the recent decades, but the origins of these characteristics are still under debate. In this study, runoff and precipitation data from China are analyzed using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and its generalized version, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). By comparing the results between runoff and the nearby precipitation data, we find the multifractal behaviors in river runoff may be propagated from the nearby precipitation data, but the LTP is not inherited from precipitation. The LTP in river runoff may arise from the spatial aggregation effect, as it is closely related with the catchment area, especially for stations with large catchment areas. These findings are based on data from China, which was not analyzed systematically due to the poor data availability. Since the existence of LTP and multifractality makes the runoff change not completely random, one should further introduce these characteristics into hydrological models, for improved water managements and better estimations of hazard risks.</span></p>

scholarly journals Current and Scenario Changes of the Volga and the Don Runoff Changes

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Current Phase ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Climatic Scenarios

Outputs of studies of current and scenario changes of the river runoff in the Volga and the Don basins probable in the current century first third part under influence of the global climate change and social/economic transformations are presented. Long-term phases of low and high annual and seasonal runoff of the Volga and the Don over the period from late XIX and early XXI centuries and the human factors’ influence on them have been found. Their duration varies in the wide range reaching eighty years and more. Noticeable runoff changes are characteristic for contrast phases. Integral scenario assessment of the river runoff changes on the basis of various climatic scenarios and water consumption has been given. Rather wide range of the probable runoff changes in comparison with the current situation has been obtained on the basis of scenarios of social/economic development and specific water use changes. Expected increase of the Volga water content under the influence of climatic factors will facilitate improvement of the water/economic situation at this river, while there is no chance to expect water content in the Don. At the same time there is a probability that the current phase of climate worming is going to come to an end and to be replaced by the long-term cold phase and this might cause the corresponding hydrological changes.

DIGITALIZATION OF LABOR MIGRATION PROCESSES IN UZBEKISTAN. WORLD EXPERIENCE

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 29-39
Author(s):  
Sulkhiya Gazieva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
Labor Migration ◽  
Smart Phone ◽  
Logic Circuits ◽  
Digital Logic ◽  
The Internet ◽  
The Future

The future of labor market depends upon several factors, long-term innovation and the demographic developments. However, one of the main drivers of technological change in the future is digitalization and central to this development is the production and use of digital logic circuits and its derived technologies, including the computer,the smart phone and the Internet. Especially, smart automation will perhaps not cause e.g.regarding industries, occupations, skills, tasks and duties

Der Wald-Wild-Konflikt – was kann die Forstökonomie zur Lösung beitragen? (Essay)

2017 ◽  
Vol 168 (4) ◽  
pp. 181-185
Author(s):  
Marc Hanewinkel
Keyword(s):  
Forest Economics ◽  
Production Risk ◽  
Damage Compensation ◽  
Land Expectation Value ◽  
Compensation Methods ◽  
The Future ◽  
Single Tree Selection ◽  
Simplifying Assumptions ◽  
Forest Enterprises

The forest-game conflict – how can forest economics contribute to solve it? (Essay) Core parameters of forest economics such as land expectation value or highest revenue show that damage caused by wild ungulates can critically influence the economic success of forest enterprises. When assessing and evaluating the damage in order to calculate damage compensation, methods are applied in Germany that look either into the past (“cost value methods”) or into the future (“expected value methods”). The manifold uncertainties related to this evaluation over long-term production periods are taken into account within a framework of conventions through strongly simplifying assumptions. Only lately, the increased production risk due to game-induced loss of species diversity is also considered. Additional aspects that should be taken into account in the future are the loss of climate-adapted species, the change of the insurance values of forest ecosystems and the impossibility of specific management systems such as single-tree selection forestry due to the influence of game. Because of high transaction costs when assessing the damage, financial compensation should only be the “ultimate measure” and a meditation between stakeholder groups with the goal to find a cooperative solution before the damage occurs should be preferred.

The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 46-82
Author(s):  
Fathi Malkawi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Education ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Muslim Education ◽  
Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

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